日本央行行长植田和男：距离物价上涨2%仍有一段距离。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：在有必要提振经济时，有有限的利率空间，目前短期利率仍维持在0.5%。 物价趋势升至2%仍有一些距离。 ...

Group 1: Price Performance Characteristics - In May, the overall CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%[6] - Consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year for four consecutive months, while service prices rose by 0.5%, marking three months of positive growth[8] - Agricultural and energy prices declined, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[14] Group 2: Future Price Trends - Negative price growth is expected to persist until the end of Q3, primarily due to ongoing downward pressure on pork prices[20] - Current consumption policies have limited impact on prices, which may be offset by fluctuations in energy prices[21] - The overall CPI is unlikely to follow core inflation upward unless the downward pressures on agricultural and energy prices are alleviated[22] Group 3: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could affect future price trends[25]

2025 年 6 月 10 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如何看待分化的物价？——2025 年 5 月价格数据点评 5 月受能源价格下跌、投资需求偏弱影响，国内物价延续低位运行。但结构上，出行 类服务价格、部分消费制造及高技术产品价格上涨，指向新动能正加快释放。往后看， CPI 同比增速或保持低位，近期生猪行业受调控影响，短期出栏量增加导致猪价运行 偏弱，或形成新的拖累。PPI 方面，随着油价企稳回升、贸易环境改善，PPI 环比跌 幅或收窄，后续关注新型政策性金融工具落地对投资端的支撑。 【策略】【光大证券】A 股市场策略数据库-20250607 大类资产方面，本周大类资产大多上涨，WTI 原油现货价涨幅居前，美元指数跌幅居 前。 A 股宽基指数方面，本周宽基指数全线上涨，创业板指涨幅居前，上证 50 涨幅 居后。 行业方面，本周行业大多上涨，通信涨幅居前，家用电器跌幅居前。 公司研究 【房地产】物管基本盘稳固，独立发展轻装上阵——融创服务（1516.HK）跟踪报告(增 持) 近期关联方融创中国 95.5 亿美元境外债转股方案获 82%的持有人支持，5 月份融创 中国全口径销售金额 4 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月CPI同比-0.1%，持平前值；PPI同比-3.3%，低于前值的-2.7%。按CPI和PPI权重分别 60%和40%模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，低于前值的-1.14%，为过去16个月以来最低。 第二， CPI为什么弱势徘徊？如果我们把CPI价格简单分为三部分：能源、食品、核心，5月前两部分形成双 下拉。一是能源价格环比下降1.7%，拖累CPI环比约0.13个百分点，主要与关税影响下大宗价格的向内传递 有关，4月IPE布油价格环比下行达18.3%，带来5月成品油价格的下降。二是食品价格环比下降0.2%，拖累 CPI环比约0.04个百分点。食品价格偏弱背后可能主要还是餐饮部门需求偏弱，而国内肉类、蔬菜等的传统供 给能力又一直较强。 第三， 再看能源食品之外的价格。因为经历"五一"假期，主要耐用消费品价格环比仍普遍降价，但幅度并未 超过季节性，从而同比降幅并未进一步加深。不过汽车、家电、租赁房、酒类同比仍在负增长区间，除汽车降 幅小幅收窄外，其余降幅持平前值。涨幅扩大的门类主要是服装、家纺、金饰品、文娱耐用品。综合影响下， ...

【环球时报报道 记者 刘雅婷】在物价持续高涨的背景下，日本各地的"寒酸校餐"近日在社交媒体上引发热议。今年4月，福冈市某小学一份仅有 一块炸鸡块的午餐就被日本网民吐槽"太少了""太寒酸"。但相关负责人回应称，这就是传统日式校餐。 尽管福冈市是日本九州地区财政实力名列前茅的城市，但面对不断上涨的物价，其在校餐供应方面也面临着巨大压力。福冈市西区石丸小学负责 学生营养指导和管理的教员阪井裕美表示："如今同样的预算，已无法制定出和过去一样丰盛的菜单了。"为控制成本，学校采取了多种措施，包 括将原料换成其他肉类部位、对价格较高的青葱或欧芹按克精准计算调整用量、避免使用单独包装的面包等。相关负责人透露，福冈市校餐预算 为每人每天一餐289.47日元（100日元约合4.98元人民币），他们最担忧的是学年末出现预算不足的情况。因此，在新学年伊始的4月和5月，通常 会严格控制成本，精简餐食。若预算充足，到学年末，校餐便会更加丰盛多样。 据报道，为缓解物价上涨带来的影响，福冈市已大幅增加应对物价上涨的对策预算，从2022财年的约4亿日元提升至2025财年的约12亿日元。该市 还宣布从今年夏天开始实行学校免费供餐政策。针对民众对 ...

Core Insights - The overall price performance in May aligns with market expectations, with CPI showing "strong food, weak energy, and stable core" while PPI reflects "weak production materials and stable living materials" [1][2] CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, maintaining this level for three consecutive months, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with seasonal trends [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is less than the seasonal decline of 1.1 percentage points, driven by increased seasonal vegetable supply and a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [1] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, weaker than seasonal expectations, influenced by a decline in international crude oil prices [1] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline in production materials being the main factor affecting PPI [2][3] - Production materials saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, which is weaker than seasonal expectations, while living materials remained stable [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Total demand remains insufficient, with external demand facing challenges as exports fell by 4.8% year-on-year in May, down from 8.1% the previous month [3][4] - Internal demand is also weak, as durable goods demand has not rebounded, and rental prices have shown weakness, indicating overall consumer demand remains low [4] Competitive Landscape - Certain industries are experiencing oversupply and "involution" competition, which exacerbates downward pressure on PPI [5] - The need for price recovery requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, including more proactive macro policies and addressing competitive pressures in the market [5]

2025.06. 09 人民币强势下逆周期因子淡出 本文字数：2734，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第 一财经 周艾琳 在美元弱周期开启的背景下，人民币汇率更多由市场供求决定。近期随着人民币持续升值，逆周期因 子几乎归零，这也是2023年来的首次。 截至6月9日17:50，美元/人民币报7.1831，美元/离岸人民币报7.1845。美元指数报98.8，回吐 去年第四季度全部涨幅，近六周以来基本持平，并较高点累计跌幅近10%。 接受记者采访的交易员和机构策略师认为，美元更大概率仍将维持"长熊"。国泰君安国际首席经济 学家周浩对记者表示："目前的共识在于，美元可能会稳定在这个位置上一段时间之后再跌，因为如 果美联储降息，美元可能还会走弱。未来人民币预计将跟随美元指数波动。" 6月9日，人民币中间价报7.1855。华创证券的研究显示，逆周期因子影子变量为-37点，相较于上 周-100点以上的幅度继续调弱，而去年11月以来，逆周期因子调节幅度一度超出-1000点，将中间 价维持在7.2以下，即释放维持人民币对美元稳定的信号。 近期市场对人民币的预期转为乐观，"中间价的影响因素几乎归零了，即中间价里面隐含的管理货币 ...

纽约联储：5月份消费者对个人财务状况的看法略有改善，消费者预期燃料、医疗、大学和房租的涨幅 将放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]