Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend analyses and viewpoints on various energy - chemical futures on November 12, 2025. Different futures have different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. For example, PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand; MEG has a weakening price trend due to supply pressure; and rubber is in an oscillating state [11][13]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: On November 11, PX prices fell, and the weakness in the PX spot market became more obvious. The floating spread of PX turned from a premium to a discount. MEG had a high planned arrival volume at major ports from November 10 - 16, and a large - scale MEG device was restarting. Polyester sales were weak on November 11 [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA have a trend intensity of 0, while MEG has a trend intensity of - 1 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand supporting the aromatics valuation. PTA is in a high - level oscillating state, and it is advisable to short the processing fee at high levels. MEG has a weakening price trend, and it is advisable to short the spread at high levels [11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The rubber futures market had small price fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties changed slightly. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and the Qingdao inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rubber is 0 [13]. - **Industry News**: The prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic production areas are stable, and the domestic raw material prices are firm, but the inventory pressure suppresses the rubber price [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of synthetic rubber decreased slightly, and the spot prices of some varieties increased slightly. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the raw material butadiene price was stable [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0 [18]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the spot transaction improved, forming a short - term oscillating support pattern. In the medium - term, butadiene is in a weak state, driving the dynamic downward movement of cis - butadiene rubber [19]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The asphalt futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [20][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of asphalt is 1 [28]. - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory in Shandong increased significantly, and the social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly [35]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LLDPE futures price decreased, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The raw material oil price oscillated, and the monomer profit was compressed [36][37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [38]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillated, the monomer profit was compressed, and the downstream demand had rigid support, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness weakened after the price decline last week [37]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PP futures price decreased, and the spot market was slightly weak. The trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly pressured the PP price [40][41]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [42]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Multiple factors jointly pressured the PP price, and the weak demand and high supply will continue to suppress the price in the long - term [41]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The caustic soda futures price and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the market continued to short the chlor - alkali profit [44][45][46]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [47]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the demand and cost factors limited the rebound space of caustic soda [46]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The pulp futures price oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The futures market was driven by funds and arbitrage behavior, and the actual demand did not increase significantly [51][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pulp is 0 [51]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures market was high - level oscillating, and the spot price increased, but the actual demand did not increase significantly. The supply pressure remained, and the downstream demand was weak [52][53]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was based on low - price selection [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of glass is 0 [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was cautious [54]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The methanol futures price decreased, and the spot price in some areas increased. The methanol market was regionally adjusted, and the supply was high while the demand was under pressure [56][58]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1 [59]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the market was regionally adjusted. The supply was high, and the demand was under pressure [58]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The urea futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the production and sales were in a weak balance [60][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0 [62]. - **Industry News**: The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term urea is expected to oscillate. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [61][62]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The styrene futures price decreased, and the profit margin improved slightly. The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of styrene is 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [64]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The soda ash futures price increased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The comprehensive supply of soda ash decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was general [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soda ash is 0 [67]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, and it is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short - term [66]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LPG and propylene futures prices had small fluctuations, and the spot prices of some varieties changed slightly. The PDH and MTBE operating rates increased [71]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are 0 [75]. - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane changed slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [76][77]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PVC futures price decreased, and the spot price continued to decline. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PVC is - 1 [80]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down. The trend still has pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The fuel oil futures price decreased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price increased slightly at night. The high - and low - sulfur spread of the outer - market spot rebounded slightly [82]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are 1 [82]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices had different trends, and the freight rates of different routes changed. The SCFIS of the European and US - West routes increased, while the SCFI decreased [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided for the container shipping index (European line). - **Freight Index**: The freight rates of different routes changed, and the future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [84][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly dominated by traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis runs at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 660,000 tons this week, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. There is still room for further accumulation of port inventory in the short term. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol, and the extrusion of the supply side is difficult to be reflected in the short term. The future spot liquidity will gradually become abundant. The coal market has been rising recently, providing some support to the cost link. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate mainly, with obvious pressure on the upper side [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fell in the late trading yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was relatively dull, the spot basis fluctuated in the range, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,580 - 4,620 at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract. There was a transaction at 01 - 73 at the beginning of December. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,604, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, which is bearish [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis was stable and slightly weak. The ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly at night. Some spot transactions were made at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The ethylene glycol market weakened during the day, and the spot price at the low end was around 3,940 yuan/ton. The basis was slightly adjusted to a premium of 66 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol in the external market weakened. The negotiation price of recent shipments in the morning was around 470 US dollars/ton, and it fell to around 465 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The buying sentiment in the market was weak, and there were few transactions [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3,979, and the basis of the 01 contract is 104, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [9]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, port inventory, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [10]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on November 11 and 10, 2025, and their price changes are provided, as well as the basis data of PTA and MEG futures contracts [11]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester fiber production (POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber) are provided [11]. Other Data There are also data on PET bottle - chip price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG price spreads, inventory, and the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry [13][17][22][28][35][38][50][54]

Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - CBOT soybean futures rose due to signs of the U.S. federal government potentially resuming operations and optimistic expectations for U.S. soybean export prospects, with January futures closing at $11.30 per bushel, up 13 cents [1] - The December soybean meal futures contract increased by $2.90, settling at $320.00 per short ton, while December soybean oil futures rose by 0.90 cents to close at 50.58 cents per pound [2] - The Dalian soybean meal futures market showed a weak trend, with the main contract 2601 opening lower and closing down at 3054 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan, with trading volume at 822,179 and open interest at 1,602,533 [3] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 10-20 yuan per ton, supported by the resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the expectation of a USDA report on crop yields and global agricultural supply and demand [4] - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 4.266 billion bushels, with an average yield adjustment to 53.1 bushels per acre, and an increase in year-end inventory to 304 million bushels [4] - Brazilian soybean planting is at 61% completion, while Argentina has just started planting at 4.4%, with weather conditions needing close monitoring [4] Group 3: Corn Market Overview - The Dalian corn futures market saw the main contract 2601 open higher and close up at 2177 yuan, marking a 13 yuan increase, with trading volume at 672,958 and open interest at 954,084 [5] - CBOT corn futures also rose, influenced by a general increase in grain, stock, and oil markets, with December corn futures closing at $4.29-3/4 per bushel, up 2.5 cents [6][7] - Domestic corn prices showed a strong trend, with processing enterprises raising purchase prices, and the trading range for corn now between 2150-2300 yuan per ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on November 11, 2025, including trends such as high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and inventory - related impacts [2]. - For different products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy are considered to form corresponding views and suggestions [12][13]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a high - level oscillation market supported by overseas blending oil demand; PTA has fair demand but supply pressure, showing a strong - biased oscillation; MEG has a large inventory increase, with a weak unilateral trend [2][12][13]. - **Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6852元/吨, 涨72元, 涨幅1.06%; PTA主力收盘价4704元/吨, 涨40元, 涨幅0.86%; MEG主力收盘价3953元/吨, 涨11元, 涨幅0.28% [5]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, continue to monitor the impact on short - process device operation; for PTA, short the processing fee when it is high; for MEG, conduct a high - selling reverse spread on the monthly spread [12][13]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of some varieties has also risen [14][15]. - **Data**: The rubber main contract's daily - session closing price was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the night - session closing price was 15,160 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [15]. - **News**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory also had corresponding changes [16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation. Although the decline rate has slowed down, in the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene will drive the price of synthetic rubber down [18][21]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the trading volume was 114,254 lots, up 7936 lots [18]. - **News**: As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory decreased, and the butadiene market was slightly weak on November 10 [19][21]. Asphalt - **Market Trends**: Factory inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is low. The futures price has declined slightly [22]. - **Data**: The closing price of BU2512 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of BU2601 was 3,036 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [22]. - **News**: From November 4 - 10, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased slightly; as of November 10, the factory inventory increased by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by 3.5% [36]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The profit in the monomer segment is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price continues to decline slightly [37]. - **Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6802 yuan/ton, with no change; the trading volume was 298,530 lots, and the position increased by 930 lots [37]. - **Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened, and the supply - side contradiction is not significant in the short - term [37]. PP - **Market Trends**: The trend is weak. Multiple factors such as trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly put downward pressure on the price [40][41]. - **Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 276,564 lots, and the position decreased by 13,051 lots [40]. - **Analysis**: The end of the downstream peak - season restocking and low - price restocking factors, along with continuous weak demand and high supply, suppress the price [41]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: The cost provides support, and the valuation is being repaired. However, the high - output and high - inventory pattern continues, and the price rebound space is limited [44][45]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 2349 yuan/ton, and the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton [44]. - **Analysis**: The alumina industry's impact on caustic soda demand is basically offset, and the cost increase can only lead to a low - level valuation repair [45]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the market sentiment in the downstream finished paper market has improved to some extent [46][49]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the trading volume was 241,489 lots, up 61,509 lots [48]. - **News**: The futures market is driven by funds, but whether the spot price can continue to rise depends on actual transactions. The price of the downstream living paper market is expected to oscillate [49][50]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market price continues to weaken slightly [51][52]. - **Data**: The closing price of FG601 was 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.73%; the trading volume was 2,327,951 lots, and the position increased by 196,321 lots [52]. - **Analysis**: The futures market oscillates downward, and downstream players purchase at low prices [52]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: The driving force is downward, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is under pressure [54][56]. - **Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,101 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the trading volume was 1,283,246 lots, and the position increased by 14,769 lots [54]. - **Analysis**: The supply increases after device复产, imports are abundant, and the MTO industry's profit is compressed, but the cost - side support gradually strengthens [56][57]. Urea - **Market Trends**: It oscillates. The spot trading activity has weakened, and the futures price is under pressure from incremental warehouse receipts [58][60][61]. - **Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 174,463 lots, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots [59]. - **Analysis**: The domestic supply is high, but the export policy eases the downward pressure. The 01 - contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [61]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It oscillates in the short - term. The contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing sentiment of funds at low prices [62][63]. - **Data**: The closing price of styrene 2512 was 6,315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the EB - BZ spread was 1020, up 20 [62]. - **Analysis**: The pure benzene is in a weak pattern, and the domestic supply is high, but the short - term market sentiment is boosted [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little. The market is oscillating strongly, with the light - soda price rising and the market sentiment improving [64]. - **Data**: The closing price of SA2601 was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the trading volume was 1,542,782 lots, and the position decreased by 29,768 lots [64]. - **Analysis**: The coal price rises, the supply decreases slightly, the downstream demand is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be firm [64]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trends**: For LPG, the demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; for propylene, the supply - demand gap narrows, and there is short - term support [67][68]. - **Data**: The closing price of PG2512 was 4,323 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the closing price of PL2601 was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [68]. - **News**: On November 10, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant device maintenance plans [73][74]. PVC - **Market Trends**: The trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is under pressure [76]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 4614 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4520 yuan/ton, the basis was - 94, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 295 [76]. - **Analysis**: The "using soda to supplement chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [76]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil shows a short - term oscillating trend, and the night - session is still weak; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the external spot market rebounds slightly [79]. - **Data**: The closing price of FU2512 was 2,688 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the closing price of LU2512 was 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [79]. - **Analysis**: The market shows different trends in price, trading volume, and spread [79]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: It is in an oscillating market. The futures price shows different changes, and the freight rate index also has corresponding fluctuations [81]. - **Data**: The closing price of EC2512 was 1,778.2, down 1.84%; the SCFIS European route index was 1,504.80, with a weekly increase of 24.5% [81]. - **Analysis**: The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and freight rates [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product. It assesses the market conditions of each commodity and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Aromatics and Related Products - **PX**: Supported by overseas aromatics blending demand, it shows a relatively strong short - term trend. The domestic production device's operating rate has reached a new high, but sanctions on some companies may affect short - process device operations. It is in a high - level oscillating market [13]. - **PTA**: The market focuses on supply reduction due to industry consolidation. The polyester load is high, and the short - term operating rate has decreased, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November. However, the long - term inventory accumulation pattern is clear. PTA processing fees above 300 should be sold short [14]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and port inventory accumulation will accelerate. Although the polyester load is high, it cannot change the current oversupply situation. The price needs to test the cost line of coal - based devices [15]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in an oscillating state. Domestic supply is shrinking, while foreign supply is in the peak season. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, making it difficult for prices to break through unilaterally [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Spot trading has improved, and it has entered an oscillating phase. In the short - term, the decline speed has slowed down due to inventory reduction and improved spot trading. In the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene drives the downward shift of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber [21]. Asphalt - It is in a weak operation. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the shipment volume has also declined. The market is affected by factors such as supply reduction in the north and decreased demand in the north as the construction season ends [25]. Polyolefins - **LLDPE**: The planned - out maintenance has increased. Although the raw material price has decreased, the downstream demand provides support, and the short - term decline driving force is not strong. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand [36]. - **PP**: It has a weak trend. Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as changes in oil prices and supply reduction, in the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the medium - term market may be in a weak - oscillating pattern [40]. Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by cost, but there is still pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side is affected by factors such as the possible reduction in alumina production. Attention should be paid to supply changes under the background of low chlorine profit [44]. - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. Although the futures market provides some support, high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand limit the price rebound space [49]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price has little change, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment [56]. - **Methanol**: It is in a short - term oscillating operation. Supply is high, and demand from the MTO industry is under pressure. The macro - driving force has weakened, and the market is weak. Attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the mainland can support prices [59]. - **Urea**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short - term. The spot market has active transactions, and new export quotas have been obtained, providing policy support [63]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillating state. The contradiction is not significant, and pure benzene has low absolute valuation. Although the chemical fundamentals are weak, the blending oil price difference has opened up, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand [68]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply has slightly increased, and downstream demand remains stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily in the short - term [71]. - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high [73]. - **Propylene**: Upstream devices are in a loss state, and attention should be paid to production reduction operations [74]. - **PVC**: It still has pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down. However, supply reduction in the maintenance season next year can be expected [82]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil fell at night and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market slightly decreased [85]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. The freight index shows different trends in European and US - West routes [87].

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 7, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the broader market and market rumors, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market had a mediocre trading atmosphere with weak spot basis. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made ethylene glycol vessels. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Affected by the broader market and rumors, futures rose, spot trading was mediocre, and the basis was weak. 11 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with a price range of 4480 - 4605. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4540, 01 contract basis was - 148, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The spot market trading atmosphere is dull, mainly dominated by traders. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol had a wide - range adjustment. This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made vessels, and the supply in the month is abundant [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3978, 01 contract basis was 54, with the futures price lower than the spot price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 56.7 tons, an increase of 6.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, PTA production capacity was 8062, output was 591, and consumption was 572 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, ethylene glycol production was 51, import was 128, and consumption was 211 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 6 and 5, 2025, as well as price changes, basis, and processing margins. For example, the spot price of PTA was 4540 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. 5. PTA Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for PTA [5] 6. MEG Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for MEG [7]