【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭， 震荡偏强信号，短线关注 30 均线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量 较昨日减 7280 手；日内最高 1090，最低 1046，收盘 1087，（较昨日结算价） 涨 34 元/吨，涨幅 3.23%。 2，现货市场：河北市场出货尚可，企业多存优惠，下游采购仍偏理性，交 投一般；华东市场窄幅整理，近日浙江两条产线放水，对当地价格有支撑，下游 多数散单为主，维持刚需采购；西北市场变化不大，现货成交氛围偏弱；西南市 场多数持稳，个别上调。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1000，基差-87 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨，比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨，环比-0.17%，同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%，环比-0.1%；平均产能利用率 77.42%，环比-0.14%。上周广东一 条产线冷修，昨日一条玻璃产线（长兴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price maintains high - level oscillation. Suggest light - position short - term long trading when the price is low, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,565.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,751.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,950.50 US dollars/ton, down 6.00 US dollars [2] - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 105.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; that of alumina is - 125.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 267,707.00 hands, down 21,548.00 hands; those of alumina are 404,205.00 hands, up 7,530.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum price is 22,180.00 yuan/ton, down 310.00 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals is 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 22,400.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market AOO aluminum price is 22,550.00 yuan/ton, down 380.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output is 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China is 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity is 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production capacity utilization rate of alumina is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2] - The import quantity of primary aluminum is 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity is 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products is 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy is 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of 20 - day Shanghai aluminum is 12.69%, up 0.01%; the historical volatility of 40 - day Shanghai aluminum is 11.57%, down 0.15% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 22.36%, up 0.0391%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.77, down 0.1616 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation deploys key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance and strengthening of anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement [2] - The National Energy Administration holds a symposium on promoting the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system, aiming to achieve the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [2] - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, says that the growth of the 2026 car market is complex, with a positive growth in January expected and greater pressure in February [2] - US President Trump says he will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman at an appropriate time, criticizes the Fed Chairman Powell, and is considering suing him [2]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-30 市场分析 1、12月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3008元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，涨幅 0.23%；持仓141333手，环比下跌15886手，成交237579手，环比上涨55761手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2860—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3120元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东和华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。 尽管随着淡季来临，沥青终端需求偏弱，但由于个别沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑，带动现货均价 小幅上涨。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，局部过剩矛盾仍有待消化。与此同时，委油原料断供事件 则是潜在的上行风险，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 原油端表现乏力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of various commodities, as well as the economic and policy environment at both international and domestic levels [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also presented [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are reported for different regions for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal. CNF premiums and quotes are given for imported soybeans from different origins [2] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Brazil's soybean - producing regions are expected to receive precipitation this week, which will accelerate soybean pod - filling in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern regions may pose concerns for soybean growth. Argentina's soybean - producing regions are expected to have dry weather this week, which may stress soybean growth [3] 国际供需 - A private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, meeting expectations. As of December 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1% [5][6] 国内供需 - On December 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 4200 tons (43%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The palm oil inventory increased by 4.87% week - on - week, while the soybean oil inventory decreased by 3.07%. The imported soybean port inventory decreased by 6203 tons. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [8][9] Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 16.1%. The US November existing - home sales contract index monthly rate was 3.3%. Various EIA inventory data for the week ending December 19, 2025, are provided [10] 国内要闻 - On December 29, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 27 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 4150 billion yuan [12] Fund Flows - On December 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 43.66 billion yuan, including 21.944 billion yuan from commodity futures and 20.358 billion yuan from stock index futures [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The news factors may cause the prices of coking coal and coke to turn from strong to weak recently. Fundamentally, the loose supply makes the prices lack support. It is expected that the prices may test the low again and then find a direction. It is advisable to close out long positions appropriately, and the downward space brought by the short - term trend may depend on the performance of the surrounding commodity markets. For now, the main strategy is to sell at high prices for hedging or investment [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On December 29, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The J2605 contract closed at 1680.5 yuan/ton, down 1.58%, with a trading volume of 18,899 lots and an open interest of 30,959 lots, an increase of 1,123 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.14 billion yuan. The JM2605 contract closed at 1088 yuan/ton, down 1.27%, with a trading volume of 1,052,613 lots and an open interest of 496,064 lots, an increase of 2,318 lots, and a capital outflow of 1.33 billion yuan [5]. - In terms of the black - series futures' open interest on December 29, the long - short comparison of RB2605, HC2605, J2605, JM2605, and I2605 showed a short - dominant situation, with deviation degrees of - 0.93%, - 0.65%, - 0.90%, - 3.39%, and - 0.20% respectively. Only the SS2602 contract had a long - dominant situation, with a deviation degree of 0.59% [6]. - On December 29, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts both showed a dead - cross. The daily MACD red bars of the coke 2605 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days, and those of the coking coal 2605 contract narrowed for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - On December 29, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1475 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1370 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Heze, it was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1660 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 3.3 Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 6626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, the state - holding enterprises' profit was 2008.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the profit of joint - stock enterprises was 4956.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%; the profit of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1635.53 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; the profit of private enterprises was 1931.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [12]. - From January to November 2025, in the main steel - using industries, the construction industry continued to shrink, while the manufacturing industry grew steadily. The real estate market remained sluggish; the decline in infrastructure investment deepened slightly; the added value of the machinery industry and the export volume of electromechanical products increased; the automobile production continued to grow rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicles; the shipbuilding order backlog of the shipbuilding industry remained at a high level; the production of the three major white - goods in the household appliance industry increased; the decline in container production widened [12]. - On December 25, the Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on the "Notice on Further Improving the Time - of - Use Electricity Price Policy for Industrial and Commercial Users", adjusting the scope of time - of - use electricity price implementation. During the Spring Festival, Labor Day, and National Day, 13:00 - 15:00 is set as the deep - valley period, implementing the deep - valley electricity price [12]. - Hangzhou Thermal Power announced that it plans to sign a three - year "Coal Purchase and Sales Contract" from 2026 to 2028 with Shanghai Yitai Shenpu Energy Co., Ltd., with a total contract volume of 9 million tons, 3 million tons per year, and the contract fulfillment volume is 80% - 120% of the contract quantity [13]. - On December 27, Jining Energy Group held the 2026 Strategic Customer Symposium in Qufu Nishan, with a on - site signing amount of 150 billion yuan, a record high. The participating enterprises cover multiple key fields such as coal, steel, logistics, and port operation [13]. - Recently, the Gansu Provincial Party Committee issued suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, including upgrading traditional industries, promoting the transformation of the coal - chemical industry, accelerating the construction of power - transmission channels, releasing high - quality coal production capacity, and implementing major projects such as the optimization and upgrading of the Lanzhou Railway Hub [13]. - On December 25, Huaihe Energy's annual coal sales volume reached 100.16 million tons, breaking through 100 million tons for the first time [13].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of rebar and iron ore faces significant pressure, and attention should be paid to the intensity of the marginal weakening of supply and demand [2]. Group 3: Summary of Rebar Section Futures - This week, the rebar 05 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing and then reducing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3118 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [3]. Spot - This week, the mainstream rebar prices in major regions started to decline slightly, with average trading volume. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped by 8 yuan to 3316 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions showing varying changes [3]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 78.32%, a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 0.39% year - on - year decrease; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a 0.01% week - on - week increase and a 0.61% year - on - year decrease. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.63%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease and a 1.25% year - on - year decrease; the average capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces was 53.22%, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease and a 0.77% year - on - year increase. The weekly rebar output increased by 2.71 tons to 184.39 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [3]. - **Short - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of electric arc furnaces in East China was 3159 yuan, a decrease of 8 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar electric arc furnaces was a loss of 149 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 18 yuan compared to last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces nationwide decreased slightly this week [3]. - **Long - process steel mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2925 yuan, a decrease of 31 yuan week - on - week. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was 85 yuan, an increase of 41 yuan compared to last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate continued to decline slightly this week, and with the third round of coke price cuts implemented, the profit of long - process steel mills continued to expand slightly [3]. - **Demand**: This week, both the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.43 tons to 9.42 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5.96 tons to 202.68 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level compared to the same period [4]. Inventory - This week, the inventories of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.29 tons to 434.25 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period. The social rebar inventory decreased by 18.81 tons to 294.19 tons, while the factory inventory increased by 0.52 tons to 140.06 tons [6]. Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3220 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, a contraction of 9 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will likely contract in the future [6]. Comprehensive Judgment - As some steel mills complete their maintenance, the decline in the output of five major steel products has gradually narrowed in the short term, with rebar output increasing slightly for two consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the apparent consumption of rebar has started to decline slightly in the short term, and the rate of rebar inventory reduction has started to narrow. Attention should be paid to the pressure of seasonal demand weakening in the future. Overall, the short - term rebound of rebar faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [6]. Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Section Futures - This week, the iron ore 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the long - position main force increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.38% [6]. Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to rise steadily, with average trading volume. The prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports showed varying changes [6]. Fundamentals - **Supply**: As of the 22nd, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons week - on - week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons week - on - week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil remained at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1256.4 tons, a decrease of 102.1 tons week - on - week. In absolute terms, the iron ore arrivals at 45 ports remained at a high level compared to the same period [6]. - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot was 120.63 tons, an increase of 28.5 tons week - on - week, and has recovered to the average level of the same period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons compared to last year, and has recovered to a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 280.04 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period [8]. Inventory - As of the 26th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, currently at 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons week - on - week, remaining at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8860.19 tons, an increase of 136.24 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [8]. Basis - As of Friday, the best - delivery iron ore at Rizhao Port was 817 yuan/ton, with a premium of 34 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, an expansion of 1 yuan compared to last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is above the average level. Based on the seasonal trend and the basis regression cycle, it is expected that the iron ore basis will likely contract in the future [8]. Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipments of imported iron ore have started to decrease slightly, but the arrivals are expected to increase slightly next week, and the port inventory will continue to show an accumulation trend. On the demand side, the daily average hot - metal output has changed little in the short term, the steel mill consumption has decreased slightly, and steel mills have started to replenish their inventories slightly in the short term. Overall, the short - term rebound of iron ore faces significant pressure, and the rebound height depends on the intensity of steel mill maintenance and production restrictions and the decline in terminal demand [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures are in different market conditions, including high - level oscillations, limited upward space, and potential for rebounds or continued weakness [2]. - Each commodity's market situation is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, device operations, and macro - economic conditions [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation market. Supply is marginally loose while demand is decreasing, but the tight - balance pattern remains due to high polyester开工率. Attention should be paid to position management before the festival [8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation market. Supply decreases and demand increases, with continuous inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of spreads and basis [9]. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of supply contraction. It is in a price - range oscillation market. Although inventory accumulation is hard to change, the situation may improve marginally. Interval operations are recommended [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Commodity preference sentiment has supported price increases, but factors such as port inventory accumulation and overseas supply pressure still exist [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. However, near - term fundamental weakness restricts the upward elasticity of prices. The butadiene raw material has a neutral short - term fundamental situation [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to decline. Factory inventory is decreasing while social inventory is mixed [18][28]. LLDPE - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream. The market faces supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29][30]. PP - In January, multiple PDH units are planned for maintenance, and the PP market is stabilizing and oscillating. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [32][33]. Caustic Soda - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited in height, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [35][36]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as exchange rates, downstream demand, and cost expectations, with no clear one - sided driving force [39][42]. Methanol - Methanol is oscillating. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the near - term fundamental pressure increases. It is in a pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - situation [45][48]. Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillation. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased, providing support for prices. The 05 contract has a support level due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [50][53]. Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks from downstream inventory and demand [54][57]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces [58]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a rebound from the bottom [58]. PVC - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited in height. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and large - scale supply reduction is expected after the 03 contract [66][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly in a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term [71]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [71]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures are rising, and the spot sales have improved [73]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in high - level oscillation. The raw material futures are rising, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair [74]. Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is in a wait - and - see state. The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is not active [76][77]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. It is currently in a "weak chemical reality" situation, but the market may improve in the second quarter of 2026 [81][82].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the tightening of customs clearance has led to a continued increase in soybean meal prices in the domestic market [1][3]. - The Dalian soybean meal futures market has shown an upward trend, with the main contract 2605 opening higher and closing at 2760 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan [2]. - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have risen by 20-40 yuan per ton, driven by favorable weather conditions for soybean growth in Brazil and strong expectations for soybean production [3]. Group 2 - The Dalian corn futures market has also experienced a rise, with the main contract 2603 opening at 2191 yuan and closing at 2222 yuan, an increase of 33 yuan [4]. - Domestic corn prices have shown slight adjustments, with procurement prices remaining stable in Shandong, while the selling progress in North China is nearing 40% [5]. - The market sentiment for corn is bullish, with recent high demand for imported corn and expectations of breaking the current stalemate in the market [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on report industry investment ratings. Group 2: Core Views of Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may continue to rise but face pressure at the end of the month and during the New Year holiday. Domestic palm oil futures may weaken again. US biodiesel policy may boost CBOT soybean oil, and domestic soybean oil fundamentals are positive but high crushing margins may limit price increases. Domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening due to positive news and tight supply [1]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose, constraining price rebounds. In China, demand is picking up with the approaching festivals, but ample supply may limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar futures [2]. Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. In China, the spot meal market is loose, but concerns about customs policies and low expected arrivals in January and February may support soybean meal prices [3]. Cotton - US cotton exports are strong, and it will maintain an oscillating trend. In China, supply pressure is easing, and cotton prices are expected to rise after breaking through key resistance levels [5]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, and seasonal demand is strong. The short - term futures market may show an oscillating and strengthening trend [9]. Corn - The corn market in Northeast and North China is quiet with stable prices. Demand is weak, and the market is in a stalemate. Attention should be paid to selling sentiment and policy releases [13]. Red Dates - The arrival of red dates in markets is lower than in previous years. The recent price rebound depends on consumption. It is recommended to hold short call options [16]. Apples - The apple consumption market is affected by substitutes, and only high - quality apples in Gansu are selling well. It is suggested to exit long positions [17]. Eggs - The egg supply is still relatively loose but is gradually easing. Demand may improve during festivals, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Spot Price**: Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan, Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8490 yuan, and Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9680 yuan [1]. - **Futures Price**: Y2605 soybean oil is 8044 yuan, P2605 palm oil is 8514 yuan, and OI605 rapeseed oil is 9361 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 is 5364 yuan/ton, Sugar 2605 is 5269 yuan/ton, and ICE raw sugar is 15.30 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: Nanning sugar is 5340 yuan/ton, and Kunming sugar is 5240 yuan/ton [2]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 3100 yuan, M2605 futures price is 2760 yuan [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan, RM2605 futures price is 2352 yuan [3]. Cotton - **Futures Price**: Cotton 2605 is 14255 yuan/ton, and ICE US cotton is 64.20 cents/pound [5]. - **Spot Price**: Xinjiang arrival price (3128B) is 15086 yuan [5]. Live Pigs - **Futures Price**: Live pigs 2605 is 11975 yuan/ton, and Live pigs 2603 is 11460 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Price**: Henan is 11800 yuan/ton, Shandong is 11950 yuan/ton [8]. Corn - **Corn**: Corn 2603 is 2189 yuan/ton, Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2280 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 is 2484 yuan/ton, Changchun spot is 2570 yuan/ton [13]. Red Dates - **Futures Price**: Red dates 2605 (main contract) is 8905 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: Cangzhou super - grade is 9560 yuan/ton [16]. Apples - **Futures Price**: Apple 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton [17]. Eggs - **Futures Price**: Egg 01 contract is 3072 yuan/500KG, Egg 02 contract is 2946 yuan/500KG [19]. - **Spot Price**: Egg production area price is 2.87 yuan/jin [19].