Labor Market Insights - January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%[4] - The month-on-month wage growth accelerated to 0.4%, indicating a potentially improving labor market[4] Economic Recovery Signals - The manufacturing PMI for January also showed an unexpected rise, suggesting steady economic recovery in the U.S.[4] - However, the non-farm data revisions indicate a downward adjustment of nearly 900,000 jobs for the past year, highlighting potential overestimation risks in the labor market[4] Structural Employment Concerns - Job growth in January was predominantly concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, with minimal contributions from other industries[4] - Marginal improvements were noted in manufacturing and construction employment, which are positive signs but insufficient for overall productivity enhancement[4] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the positive non-farm data, expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year significantly decreased, leading to a short-term rebound in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields[4] - Upcoming data releases, particularly January's CPI and quarterly GDP, may further influence market sentiment and interest rate expectations[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies, unexpected tariff impacts, and geopolitical factors that could increase global asset volatility[5]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen a trading volume of 4.77 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 2.1% as of February 12, 2026 [1] - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year government bond ETF has been 82.27 billion yuan, with the latest fund size reaching 22.695 billion yuan [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 1.511 billion yuan, with a single-day peak inflow of 658 million yuan [1] Group 2 - On February 11, the interbank market showed a warming trend, with yields on bonds with maturities of five years and above declining, and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.78% [1] - The government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year and 10-year main contracts increasing by 0.05% and 0.06% respectively [1] - The interbank liquidity remains tight, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly rising to around 1.37% [1] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a 785 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 11, with a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - There is a strong market expectation for interest rate cuts after the holiday, supported by signs of weak economic recovery and relatively ample liquidity [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 30 years [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report has dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. Gold and silver prices have shown an oscillating upward trend, but with the decline in short - term event uncertainties and cooling of interest rate cut expectations, both gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels this week, and attention should be paid to the US CPI [4][5]. - In the medium - term, with the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, and the high risk appetite makes it difficult for gold and silver prices to fall. However, the downward risks also increase [9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations, and the gold price oscillated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes slightly closed down, European stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield rose 2.77 basis points to 4.170%, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.86, the offshore RMB slightly appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9143, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $5107.80 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations, and the silver price oscillated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes had mixed closing results, European stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 4.143%, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.86, the offshore RMB slightly appreciated against the US dollar to 6.9143, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.60% to $84.08 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 1020 kilograms to 105072 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 995, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4822 kilograms to 323368 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 12:45: Australian Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Hunter speaks at the CEDA WA Forum - 15:00: The Ministry of Commerce holds the second regular press conference in February - 15:00: Release of the initial value of the UK's Q4 GDP - 17:00: European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone speaks - 21:30: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of February 7 and the January PPI - 21:45: Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rogers speaks - 23:00: Release of the annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in January [16] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations. Today, the US House of Representatives voted to reject Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on Canada, and the situation between the US and Iran tends towards peace talks, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 2.4 yuan per gram. Gold prices are gradually returning to rationality [4]. - **Silver**: The overall strong US January non - farm payroll report dampened interest rate cut expectations. Today, the US House of Representatives voted to reject Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on Canada, and the situation between the US and Iran tends towards peace talks. The silver price followed the gold price and oscillated and closed higher. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 1200 yuan per gram, and domestic sentiment has rapidly cooled. The volatility of silver prices has extremely converged [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold increased by 4679 to 157,666, the short position decreased by 1150 to 31,171, and the net position increased by 5829 to 126,495 [32]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 1606 to 298,029, the short position increased by 4621 to 207,906, and the net position decreased by 3015 to 90,123 [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in January reshaped the interest rate cut expectations, leading to increased high - level volatility in precious metals. Gold is under short - term pressure, and the trading focus returns to the interest rate path. Silver's financial attribute is under pressure, and the structural differentiation continues [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: The new employment and salary data are higher than expected, and the unemployment rate has fallen, strengthening the narrative of labor market resilience. The market's pricing of the easing rhythm this year needs adjustment. The dollar and yields rebound simultaneously, and the expected real interest rate rises, directly suppressing non - interest - bearing assets. Before the data release, the bond market yield was at a stage low, and there was a weak data expectation gap. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and long - position profit - taking, intensifying price fluctuations [1]. - **Outlook**: Before the employment and salary show clear weakening signals, the interest rate cut trading is difficult to develop unilaterally. The gold price may enter a stage of high - level oscillation and repeated sentiment. In the medium term, it still depends on the direction of the real interest rate and the change of the dollar trend [1]. Silver - **Logic**: The strong employment data boosts interest rate expectations, and the financial attribute of silver is under pressure. The industrial demand expectation has not weakened significantly, making the silver price more elastic than the gold price, but with more prominent high - volatility characteristics. The Shanghai silver maintains relative strength, indicating that the internal - external market structure has not completely weakened, but the capital game has intensified [2]. - **Outlook**: If the dollar and yields remain strong, the silver price volatility will remain high. If the subsequent macro data weakens again, silver still has room for repair under the "interest rate cut + risk hedging" framework [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [40]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 11, 2026, the precious metals index was 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decline of 1.35%, a 1 - month decline of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.61% [42].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai opened higher but closed lower, ending at 102,190 CNY, while London copper peaked at 13,500 USD before retreating to around 13,222 USD [4][14] - The U.S. January non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a slight cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4][14] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts by 12,958 tons to 178,900 tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a rise of 3,000 tons in LME copper stocks to 192,100 tons indicate a bearish sentiment in the market [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The U.S. non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, slightly reducing the Fed's interest rate cut outlook, although concerns about data quality limit the impact [5][15] - The demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, while domestic market conditions are constrained by negative feedback in the supply chain, leading to stagnant nickel ore procurement [5][15] - Stainless steel transactions have been relatively weak, with social inventory increasing month-on-month due to pessimistic sentiment in the futures market [5][15] Group 3: Polysilicon - In January, domestic polysilicon production was reported at 102,000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with expectations for further reductions to 85,000 tons in February [6][16] - The cancellation of export tax rebates has limited support for downstream sectors, while high costs of auxiliary materials continue to restrict acceptance of silicon materials [6][16] - The current market is low in activity, with future prices expected to be influenced mainly by industry governance and regulatory dynamics [6][16] Group 4: Aluminum - Domestic alumina prices remained stable, with a northern alumina producer halting part of its roasting and leaching capacity, affecting around 4 million tons of normal operating capacity [7][17] - The market is expected to experience a temporary supply-demand mismatch post-holiday, with attention needed on the actual progress of new capacity in Guangxi [7][17] - The aluminum futures market is anticipated to remain in a narrow range, with the 05 contract expected to operate between 2,600 and 2,950 CNY per ton [7][17] Group 5: Zinc and Lead - Zinc futures in Shanghai opened high but closed lower, with the macro environment affected by strong U.S. non-farm data, leading to mixed market sentiment [20] - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, with some smelters entering production cuts ahead of the holiday, while downstream purchasing has slowed [20][21] - Overall, both zinc and lead markets are expected to experience weak supply-demand dynamics, with lead prices anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 16,500 to 17,500 CNY per ton [20][21] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals initially strengthened but later retraced gains due to strong U.S. employment data, which has pressured interest rate cut expectations [23] - The geopolitical situation in Greenland, with NATO's military actions, has added some support to precious metals due to increased risks [23] - Gold is recommended for long-term holding, while silver, platinum, and palladium require a more cautious approach [23]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the content. Core View - The poor retail sales data in the US in December 2025 led to an increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The weaker US dollar pushed the non - ferrous sector to rebound. Shanghai zinc fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract closing at 24,585, up 140 or 0.57%. The domestic demand side is in the Spring Festival off - season mode, procurement is almost finished, the market is in a state of having prices but no transactions, and the spot premium is stable. On the 11th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 105,250 tons, with 0 - 3C at 19.55. The market will focus on the non - farm payrolls data on Wednesday evening and the CPI inflation data on Friday. Considering the uncertainties during the Spring Festival holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions and pay attention to risk prevention [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 24,550 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,400 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,295 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan or 0.93%, with a position of 5,425 and a decrease of 150 in position. For SHFE zinc 2603, the opening price was 24,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,455 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,555 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.53%, with a position of 60,049 and a decrease of 3,452 in position. For SHFE zinc 2604, the opening price was 24,545 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,505 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,590 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,370 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.47%, with a position of 78,739 and an increase of 1,001 in position [7] 2. Industry News - On February 11, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,380 - 24,555 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,310 - 24,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 40 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there was almost no offer against the market [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,330 - 24,495 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were offered at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract and 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area was to offer against the 2603 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 24,330 - 24,530 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded at 24,260 - 24,430 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 24,260 - 24,430 yuan/ton. Zijin had no offer for the 2603 contract, and Huxin was offered at around 25,360 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingots were offered at a discount of 10 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 24,560 - 24,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were offered at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE inter - monthly spread, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][13]

因为这份数据还有后半张脸。劳工统计局顺手给过去一年做了个手术，把之前虚高的近90万新增就业一 刀切掉了。也就是说，我们以为去年就业很热，其实是穿着羽绒服称体重。现在脱了外套，真实体温反 而没那么烫手。 朋友们早上好，我是帮主郑重。昨晚的美股，走得很微妙。非农就业数据大超预期，13万的新增，失业 率降到4.3%，特朗普都发帖说"就业数据好极了"——但你看盘面，道指、纳指全是绿的，不深，就那么 微微跌一点。这种"好消息来了，股票却不涨"的局面，你是不是特别熟悉？ 其实逻辑捋直了，一句话就说明白：数据好，降息的紧迫感就弱了。 就在报告出来那一刻，交易员把6月降息的押注概率直接砍到五成以下。市场之前靠着"迟早要降息"这 口气吊着，现在这口气松了，股价自然要往下坐一坐。 但你发现没有，它也没大跌。为什么？ 第一，别跟短期情绪较劲。 一个数据改变不了利率的长期路径，也改不了产业周期的方向。 第二，耐心等CPI落地。 通胀才是真正的胜负手。如果通胀稳住，哪怕就业好，降息窗口也不会完全关 上；如果通胀反弹，那才是真正的变盘信号。 第三，审视持仓的"利率敏感度"。 那些靠流动性撑着的高估值品种，接下来波动还会加大；而真正有 盈 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Strategy**: 1) In January, inflation data indicated continuous price recovery. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and IC was dominant. 2) Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, but the sustainability of the employment market's recovery needed to be observed. Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. 3) The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. 4) The rebound of PPI in January exceeded market expectations. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [1][2][3][20]. - **Commodities**: 1) Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. 2) Coking coal and coke prices were expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. 3) The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. 4) The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. 5) The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips. 6) For lead, consider mid - term long positions. 7) For zinc, adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations. 8) Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term. 9) LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating. 10) For asphalt, adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [23][26][31][34][38][40][45][48][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and the CSI 500 index was dominant. It was recommended to continue holding the long - stock - index strategy [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the automatic conversion standard for silver hedging positions. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, and market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. It was recommended to reduce positions for the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [17][18]. 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In January, CPI was lower than expected, and PPI was better than expected. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese seamless steel pipes. Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to risks with light positions before the Spring Festival [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market was stable and slightly strong. The spot market was expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures market was expected to oscillate [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. It was recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks during the long holiday [28][30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. If planning to hold positions for the holiday, it was recommended to use options strategies [33][34][35]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The first part of the national standard for vehicle - use solid - state batteries was planned to be released in July 2026. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips [36][37][38]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - High - grade base metal mineralization was discovered in Queensland. Lead was currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider mid - term long positions [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some projects of Chihong Zinc & Germanium had progress. Zinc prices were mainly oscillating. Adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations [42][43][45]. 3.2.8 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's January production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day. Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term [47][48][49]. 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EIA propane weekly data showed certain changes. LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating [50]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The domestic heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market was expected to be light before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [50][51][52].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is that the market's focus has shifted from employment data to inflation, particularly the upcoming CPI report, which is expected to show a moderate decline [1][2][4] - The strong non-farm payroll data released in January exceeded market expectations, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Fed rate cut in June, with July now seen as the most likely month for the first cut [1][4] - Despite the positive employment data, the market reaction was muted, with only slight movements in stocks and currencies, indicating a departure from traditional market behavior [1][3] Group 2 - Gold's performance suggests that the market's main logic is no longer centered on the Fed, but rather on inflation expectations, as gold prices remained stable despite the strong employment report [2][4] - The market is now in a phase where employment stability is prioritized, and the focus has shifted to monitoring CPI data, which is set to be released soon [2][4] - The market has already adjusted to the idea of delayed rate cuts, with light positioning observed among traders, indicating that the previous logic of "delayed rate cuts" has been reaffirmed rather than changed [3][4]

Market - US stock market experienced a slight decline on February 12, with the S&P 500 index down 0.01% and the Dow Jones down 0.13% due to stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data, which reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut before mid-year [3][4] - Major US stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia leading in trading volume, up 0.78%, and Micron Technology rising 9.94% after a target price upgrade from Morgan Stanley [2][4] - International oil prices increased due to tensions between the US and Iran and signs of improving demand, with Brent crude and WTI prices rising [4] Company - Cisco reported quarterly earnings exceeding expectations with an adjusted EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $15.35 billion, but its stock fell 7% due to a lackluster earnings outlook [16] - Apple faced delays in its plans to upgrade Siri, with several anticipated features postponed, impacting its stock performance [17] - Meta Platforms has made significant investments in AI infrastructure, including over $10 billion for a new data center in Indiana, reflecting its commitment to AI development [17][18] - Ford's earnings report showed a significant quarterly shortfall attributed to unexpected tariff impacts of approximately $900 million, although the company provided positive guidance for 2026 [21]