Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose to 102,430 CNY, while London copper fluctuated around 13,112 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral to bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and Powell's statements cooling rate cut expectations, alongside escalating tensions in Iran creating risk-averse sentiment [5][17] - The inventory of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3,130 tons to 148,000 tons, while LME copper stocks rose by 1,575 tons to 173,900 tons, indicating a negative feedback on demand due to high prices [5][17] - Despite downstream purchasing at lower prices, the pressure on spot prices remains, and the market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term, with a reference range of 99,800 - 103,000 CNY per ton for the main copper futures [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term due to tight policy expectations [6][18] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant, but the supply of fire method nickel is tight [6][18] - The operational range for nickel futures is set at 140,000 - 160,000 CNY per ton, and for stainless steel at 14,000 - 15,500 CNY per ton [6][18] Group 3: Polysilicon Market - The polysilicon market is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with some companies lowering prices and downstream purchasing intentions remaining low due to demand being pulled forward [19] - The silicon industry association forecasts a 15% quarter-on-quarter decrease in polysilicon production for January, with further reductions expected in February to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [19] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market saw a slight rebound in alumina prices, with current supply reductions expected to support short-term price increases [20][21] - A major alumina producer in Guizhou has reduced production, leading to a tighter supply in the Southwest region, while logistics are expected to tighten as the Spring Festival approaches [20][21] - The operational range for aluminum futures is set at 24,800 - 26,000 CNY per ton, with a recommendation to hold existing long positions [21] Group 5: Zinc and Lead Markets - Zinc prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the macroeconomic environment being mixed following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts [23] - Supply-side issues are noted, with production expected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to maintenance and natural days off in February [23] - The operational range for zinc futures is set at 24,500 - 26,000 CNY per ton, while lead futures are expected to operate within 16,800 - 17,800 CNY per ton [23]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, with a 91% chance of no change [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 91% [1] - There is an 8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.4% chance of a cut exceeding 50 basis points [1] - The likelihood of a rate hike of 25 basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 25% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 23% probability of a 50 basis point cut and a 17% probability of a 100 basis point cut by 2026 [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut by 2026 stands at 12% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the non-ferrous metal sector driven by rising risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, with the Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) rising over 7.3% and 14 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - Southwest Securities indicates that both precious metals and industrial copper sectors are showing positive expansion, with resource-advantaged companies continuously increasing reserves and production, and upcoming production from marine gold mining projects [1] - As of January 28, 2026, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) has surged by 6.31%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Non-Ferrous (up 10.04%), China Aluminum (up 10.02%), and Yunnan Copper (up 10.02%) [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index, which selects 50 securities from the non-ferrous metal industry based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [1][2]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a strong upward trend, aiming for a second consecutive week of gains and a third consecutive month of appreciation against the USD, reaching multi-year highs [1] - The recent weakness of the USD has provided support for the GBP/USD rise, with the USD index falling 0.84% to 96.219 as of January 27, and the GBP trading at 1.3780 USD, reflecting an increase from the previous trading day [1] - The USD index has seen a cumulative decline of 1.7% in the last week, indicating a persistent weakness against major currencies, including the GBP [1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with most economists expecting the Fed to maintain the current rate between 3.50% and 3.75% [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 4.4%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is as high as 95.6% [2] - There is a divergence between market expectations and Fed officials regarding the pace of potential rate cuts, with some analysts predicting a faster rate cut schedule than the Fed's mainstream expectation of only one cut this year [2] Group 3 - Technically, the GBP/USD has reached its highest level in over 51 months, breaking through key resistance levels that previously hindered its upward movement [4] - As of January 28, the GBP/USD rate was reported at 1.3800, with a daily high of 1.3849 and a low of 1.3789, indicating strong bullish momentum [4] - The 1.4000 level remains a critical technical barrier for the currency pair's continued upward trend, and its ability to break through this level will significantly impact future price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a six-month high of 1.3789, driven by a weaker dollar, resilient UK economic data, and delayed interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - The UK economy shows resilience, with the composite PMI rising to 53.9 in January 2026, indicating accelerated business growth and warming demand, which suggests strong GDP growth in the first quarter [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US enhances the pound's advantage, with UK inflation rebounding to 3.4% in December, reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The weak US dollar index, which fell to 96.27, has contributed to the pound's strength, as funds shift towards GBP assets due to reduced safe-haven appeal of the dollar [2] - Several institutions have raised their forecasts for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with expectations of breaking through the 1.38 level and targeting 1.40, with NatWest predicting rates of 1.41 and 1.42 by mid and end of 2026 [2] - There are uncertainties surrounding the pound's trajectory, particularly due to political risks in the UK and internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions [2][3]

2026/01/27 宏观 宏观与地缘：中东地缘局势突发升级，波斯湾美军兵力投送加强、叙利亚油气控制权争夺 加剧，避险情绪升温；据美国财政部数据，美元指数回落至 99.8，美联储 2025 年完成三 次降息后，2026 年降息预期持续。世界黄金协会数据显示，2025 年全球央行净购金 1230 吨，中国央行连续 14 个月增持黄金，2025 年 12 月增持 3 万盎司。 市场分析：1 月 26 日亚盘期间现货黄金突破 5110 美元/盎司。金价的核心支撑为地缘避险 资金流入、央行持续购金及美元走弱，若中东局势进一步升级，金价或获更多资金面支 撑。短期压力来自金价突破 5000 美元/盎司历史新高后技术面超买，若美联储 1 月议息释 放鹰派信号，或对金价形成短期压制。 操作建议：建议重点关注中东地缘局势演变及美联储议息会议表态，以趋势跟踪为主，做 好仓位管控，避免追高操作。 白银 外盘价格:1 月 26 日亚盘期间，伦敦银现最高突破至 110 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银商业净空 持仓从 8 万手降至 5.5 万手。光伏等新能源领域用银需求 2025 年翻倍，全球矿产白银产量 较峰值下降 12%，全球白银 E ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with prices reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and long-term demand expectations [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On January 26, 2026, the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 10%, reaching approximately 462,700 yuan/ton, and closed at 425,300 yuan/ton, marking a 1.37% increase from the previous trading day and over 25% increase for the month [1]. - The LME three-month tin price hit a record high of about $55,400 per ton (approximately 358,200 yuan/ton) on January 23, 2026, up 6.5% from the previous day [1]. Supply Constraints - The current geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo has escalated, increasing safety risks in the main production areas, compounded by slow recovery in Myanmar and uncertainties in Indonesian policies, creating a "triple constraint" on supply [5]. - Global tin inventories are at historically low levels, with LME tin inventory at 7,195 tons, a 21.23% increase month-on-month, while domestic social inventory has accumulated to 9,700 tons, up 0.18% [6]. Demand Dynamics - There is a clear distinction in demand, with short-term pressures due to the traditional off-season and high prices, while long-term growth is driven by AI computing, photovoltaic new energy, and electric vehicles, which are expected to significantly outpace traditional sectors [3][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a strong long-term growth expectation for tin demand, the immediate consumption is being suppressed by seasonal factors and high prices [7]. Future Price Outlook - Short-term factors supporting high tin prices include a weak dollar environment, supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts, and positive market sentiment, which may lead to further price increases [8]. - Analysts from Huatai Futures indicate that the sensitivity of high-tech companies to interest rate cuts could benefit tin demand, supported by rising capital expenditures in the semiconductor sector [8]. - Future price rationalization is anticipated, with expectations of increased tin supply from recovering mines, projecting an increase of 23,000 to 25,000 tons in 2026, which may alleviate some upward price pressures [9].

【导读】上期所调整白银、锡期货交易限额，以及铜、铝期货涨跌停板幅度等 1月26日，上海期货交易所（以下简称上期所）发布多条公告，再次收紧白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的同时，进一步调整了铜、铝期货相关合约涨跌 停板幅度和交易保证金比例。 调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额 上期所表示，根据《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》的有关规定，经研究决定，自2026年1月27日（即1月26日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外 特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银、锡期货已上市合约的交易限额调整如下： 白银期货AG2602、AG2603、AG2604、AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、AG2612、AG2701合约的日内开仓交易的 最大数量为800手。 锡期货SN2602、SN2603、SN2604、SN2605、SN2606、SN2607、SN2608、SN2609、SN2610、SN2611、SN2612、SN2701合约的日内开仓交易的最大数 量为200手。 实际控制关系账户组日内开仓交易的最大数量按照单个客户执行。套期保值交易和做市交易的开仓数量不受此限制。 调 ...

裕信银行投资研究所的分析师在一份报告中指出，尽管美国政治环境充满不确定性，但美债收益率仍保 持相对稳定，这反映出投资者对美债的持续青睐。市场普遍预期美联储将进一步降息，此举有望提振美 债表现。此外，美国经济展现出的韧性增强了其资产吸引力。虽然外国投资者可能在中长期减少对美国 资产的投资，但短期内出现大规模抛售的可能性较低。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation has shifted from trade - war concerns to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks are on the rise, such as the US aircraft carrier strike group's movement to the Middle East, Iran's warning, and Trump's statements regarding Canada's trade agreement and the Greenland deal [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment is weakening, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims. The Fed cut interest rates in December 2025 and may cut once in 2026. Market expectations suggest a low probability of a January 2026 rate cut, with the next possible cut in June [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations from the hydrogen - energy platinum - based catalyst industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a short - term upward - trending oscillation, a medium - term high - level oscillation, and a long - term step - by - step upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Price: International and domestic gold prices have increased. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $4983.10 per ounce, up 0.91% from the previous day and 8.30% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold futures have also shown some fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Price: International and domestic silver prices have risen significantly. The Comex silver active contract closed at $103.26 per ounce, up 7.32% from the previous day and 14.80% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai silver futures have also been adjusted [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - Price: International and domestic platinum prices have increased. The NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also changed [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [9]. - Price: International and domestic palladium prices have gone up. The NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from the previous week [9]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has changed [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary attribute: The Federal Reserve's interest rates, balance sheet, M2, and other indicators have changed. The US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, and trade also show different trends [10][12]. - Safe - haven attribute: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index are monitored, reflecting the current geopolitical situation and market volatility [12]. - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index and the exchange rate of the offshore RMB have changed, which have an impact on precious metals' prices [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Federal Reserve meeting from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [14].