「 勤奋、提炼、落地。 」 文 ｜ 经纬创投 王华东 处在时代的变革期，"转型"成为大到国家、小到个人都需要去思考和实践的事。 投资人当然也一样。而在一级市场投资人这个群体中，围绕转型的对话，有一个名字总会在最开始就被提及——经纬创投管理合伙人王华东。 在王华东身上，你很难看到那种不同赛道、不同产业、不同学科间的"断裂感"。从媒体人到投资人，从陌陌到理想汽车、沐曦和宇树，从文娱、消费、新能源生 态，再到先进制造与AI相关的硬科技核心领域，他一次次完成了丝滑的迁移。这些看似跨度极大的选择，背后其实是一条清晰的技术与产业演进逻辑，而非简单 的赛道轮换。 我们曾经很好奇这种在投资行业罕见的"腾挪之术"，但每每与王华东聊起，得到的答案都有些轻描淡写。 很多人都知道他是一个对自己极狠的人，像管理精密工程一样管理自己的生活与思想。这么多年有两件事雷打不动：第一，每天清晨五点半起床；第二，保持每 年30本以上的高强度阅读。 对他而言，阅读不是消遣，而是一种"认知补齐"与"规律迁移"的过程—— 读通用汽车传奇CEO斯隆的传记，去理解100年前汽车产业链的演进逻辑，并以此作为判断新能源车的底层坐标；他还反复研读尤瓦尔·赫拉利， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's $10 billion data center project in Michigan has lost funding support from Blue Owl Capital, raising concerns about the AI bubble and leading to a nearly 45% drop in Oracle's stock price since its peak in early September [1][2]. Group 1: Project Financing and Market Reaction - The withdrawal of Blue Owl Capital is seen as a significant setback for Oracle, with the news amplifying market fears regarding the sustainability of AI investments [2][15]. - Oracle's stock price surged from approximately $122 on April 21 to over $320 in early September, but has since retraced all gains as investors shift focus from growth narratives to the costs of realizing those promises [8][9]. - Concerns have emerged regarding the reliability of OpenAI's commitments to Oracle, with analysts questioning whether OpenAI will fulfill its $300 billion power purchase agreement [17][18]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Analyst Concerns - Jim Chanos, a prominent short-seller, criticized Oracle's rapid asset expansion, indicating that the company's return on new capital investments is only about 8.5%, compared to Microsoft's nearly 40% [11]. - Analysts have pressed Oracle's management for clarity on AI investment costs, but the company has not provided definitive answers, leading to further skepticism [12]. - The market is reevaluating which companies can sustain prolonged delays in returns, especially as Oracle's traditional cash flow model is disrupted by heavy AI investments [22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Strategic Positioning - OpenAI's partnerships with Microsoft and Amazon indicate a diversification of its computing resources, potentially diminishing Oracle's role in OpenAI's ecosystem [19]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Google and other well-capitalized firms accelerating their AI initiatives, raising questions about OpenAI's ability to maintain its lead [20]. - Oracle's heavy investment in AI infrastructure contrasts with its previous reliance on predictable cash flows from traditional software, making it more vulnerable to market fluctuations [22].

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's significant data center project in Michigan, valued at $10 billion, has lost funding support from Blue Owl Capital, raising concerns about the AI bubble and leading to a nearly 45% drop in Oracle's stock price since its peak in early September [2][17]. Group 1: Oracle's AI Investment and Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price surged from approximately $122 on April 21 to over $320 by early September, driven by expectations of substantial AI-related revenue from OpenAI [7][21]. - As investors shifted focus from growth narratives to the costs of realizing these promises, Oracle's stock began to decline, indicating a critical point in the AI infrastructure cycle [22][29]. - Jim Chanos criticized Oracle's rapid balance sheet expansion, suggesting that its return on new capital investments is only about 8.5%, compared to Microsoft's nearly 40% [8][22]. Group 2: Financing and Credit Market Dynamics - The private credit market is reassessing risks, with Blue Owl Capital withdrawing from the Michigan project due to increased financing costs and stricter terms, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards AI spending and Oracle's debt levels [10][25]. - Analysts are questioning the reliability of OpenAI's commitments, with concerns that OpenAI may not fulfill its promise of $300 billion in computing power payments to Oracle, which has a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $523 billion as of November 30 [12][26][27]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Uncertainties - OpenAI's position in the AI market is becoming uncertain, especially with new partnerships with Microsoft and Amazon, which diversify its computing power sources and challenge Oracle's role [13][27]. - The pending agreement between OpenAI and Nvidia, which could involve up to $100 billion in investment, remains unfinalized, adding to the uncertainty surrounding Oracle's future revenue from AI [28]. - The market is increasingly focused on which companies can sustain prolonged periods of capital investment without immediate returns, with Oracle's traditional cash flow model being disrupted by the high upfront costs of AI infrastructure [14][29].

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the emphasis on the continuous deepening of comprehensive reforms in the capital market during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency [2][39] - Experts suggest increasing the inclusiveness and adaptability of listing and trading systems to attract high-quality companies from new productive sectors [2][39] - There is a call to expand patient capital, long-term capital, and strategic capital supply, while also promoting active mergers and acquisitions and strict delisting norms [2][39] Group 2 - The A500 ETF has seen a significant surge in trading volume, with a record daily turnover exceeding 520 billion yuan on December 17, indicating strong investor interest [3][40] - The net inflow for A500 ETF on the same day surpassed 11 billion yuan, highlighting its status as a major capital attraction [3][40] Group 3 - Alibaba is shifting its investment focus towards the AI sector, with AI investments rising from 4% to 50% of its total investment portfolio since 2023 [4][41] - The company has made significant investments in embodied intelligence, as evidenced by its recent stake in Shanghai Qunchu Intelligent Technology Co., which increased its registered capital [4][41] Group 4 - The dollar index has dropped over 9% this year, closing at 98.3978 on December 17, reflecting a downward trend influenced by weak economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [5][42] - The dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of 1.72% from November 20 to December 17, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [5][42] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China has resumed 14-day reverse repos to ensure liquidity stability, conducting operations totaling 1.883 billion yuan on December 18 [6][43] - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system to meet diverse funding needs of different institutions [6][43] Group 6 - Electrolytic manganese prices have surged for 13 consecutive days, reaching a new high of 17,820 yuan per ton, with a total increase of over 2,300 yuan per ton in December [7][44][45] - The price increase represents a nearly 15% rise since the beginning of December, marking the highest level since May 2022 [7][45] Group 7 - The Trump administration has reaffirmed its goal of returning to the moon by 2028, with plans to establish a permanent lunar outpost by 2030 [8][46] - The initiative aims to stimulate private sector innovation and investment in space exploration and safety [8][46] Group 8 - The CPI's unexpected decline has boosted expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stock markets, including a 38% spike in Trump Media Technology Group's stock [9][47] - The merger with TAE Technologies aims to create one of the first publicly listed fusion energy companies, with plans to build a utility-scale fusion power plant by 2026 [9][47] Group 9 - Haidilao plans to distribute a special dividend of 1.754 billion yuan, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 80% over the next three years [14][51][52] - The company has a history of generous dividends, having previously distributed 1.519 billion yuan in cash dividends for the first half of 2025 [14][52] Group 10 - The Japanese government has restructured the "Apple tax," significantly reducing commission rates for various payment scenarios, allowing developers to integrate third-party payment systems [15][53] - This change is expected to enhance competition and reduce costs for developers operating within the Apple ecosystem [15][53]

Group 1 - Google is advancing the "TorchTPU" strategy to enable PyTorch to run smoothly on TPU chips, aiming to eliminate migration barriers for developers and considering partial open-sourcing of the software [1] - Google is negotiating a collaboration with Meta to provide Meta with more TPU access, allowing Meta to reduce inference costs and dependence on NVIDIA by adapting software for TPU [1] - Wall Street analysts believe that CUDA is NVIDIA's strongest defense, and Google's previous reliance on its internal Jax framework has widened the gap with external customer usage habits [1] Group 2 - The ChatGPT app store has officially launched, categorizing applications like Adobe Photoshop and Canva, with users triggering them via "@app name" [2] - Developers can submit applications for review on the OpenAI developer platform, which offers a comprehensive resource system including best practice guides and open-source sample applications [2] - OpenAI plans to raise new funding at an estimated valuation of around $750 billion, potentially reaching $1 trillion, attempting to replicate the Apple App Store model in the AI era [2] Group 3 - Google has released the Gemini 3 Flash model, achieving a score of 33.7% on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark, while Gemini 3 Pro scored 37.5% and GPT-5.2 scored 34.5% [3] - This model maintains the Flash series' extreme native speed, outperforming Gemini 2.5 Pro while tripling the speed, priced at $0.50 per million tokens for input and $3 for output [3] - Gemini 3 Flash is now the default model for Gemini applications and search AI modes, with response times generally under one second, available globally through Google AI Studio and Vertex AI [3] Group 4 - ByteDance has launched the universal Agent model Seed1.8, which integrates search, code, and GUI Agent capabilities, automatically adjusting processing methods based on task complexity [4] - In GUI Agent evaluations, Seed1.8 surpassed Seed1.5-VL, demonstrating reliability in multi-step tasks across computer, web, and mobile environments, scoring 67.6 on the BrowseCompen benchmark [4] - The model achieved a top score of 11.0 on ZeroBench and 87.8 on VideoMME for long video understanding, incorporating the "VideoCut" video tool [4] Group 5 - The Step-GUI cloud model has been fully upgraded, supporting over 200 task scenarios and usable across mobile, PC, and automotive platforms, with deployment of an "AI phone" possible in as little as 10 minutes [5][6] - This model features longer reasoning steps, enhanced semantic understanding, and generalization capabilities, autonomously asking questions when user instructions are vague [6] - The GUI-MCP protocol is open for end-cloud collaboration, with APIs temporarily available for free, and a call for users to create showcases and develop applications [6] Group 6 - xAI has officially released the Grok Voice Agent API, making its real-time voice capabilities available to developers for voice-first application scenarios [7] - The API includes various built-in voices and companion personalities, allowing developers to finely control system commands and behavior parameters [7] - It supports real-time voice recognition and synthesis with a streaming audio design, enabling search capabilities during conversations and significantly reducing interaction latency [7] Group 7 - Apple is reportedly abandoning its VR headset project in favor of developing AI smart glasses, with a projected launch in late 2026 or 2027 [8] - The company has paused its AR/VR headset initiatives and plans to reintroduce the iMac Pro, which has been off the market for over four years, potentially featuring the M5 Max chip [8] - A 20th-anniversary edition iPhone is expected in 2027, featuring a curved design that wraps around the device edges and a front camera positioned under the display [8] Group 8 - a16z partners assert that the AI bubble has not yet burst, as it has not reached a point where investments are wasted [9] - They believe that if companies cease developing larger models and rely solely on existing models, they could quickly achieve profitability at current profit margins [9] - Predictions indicate that GDP could grow by several percentage points by 2030, with a reasonable lower limit of 30% growth if AGI is achieved, though outcomes could vary widely [9]

Core Insights - AI is undergoing a "stress test" as major cloud and chip companies experience significant stock declines despite strong earnings reports [1][2] - Oracle's completion timeline for data centers related to OpenAI has been pushed back from 2027 to 2028, contributing to market concerns [1] - CoreWeave's stock has also fallen, with a notable 46% drop attributed to a major tenant retracting a $150 million investment [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's remaining performance obligations surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, driven by demand from tech giants [1] - Broadcom reported Q4 revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor business growth at 34.5% and infrastructure software revenue up 19% [1] - However, both companies reported a negative free cash flow of $10 billion and a cumulative free cash flow of -$13.18 billion over the past 12 months [2] Market Concerns - There are rising warnings about an "AI bubble," with concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures by tech giants, potential "circular trading" in the industry, and whether future profits can match current high valuations [2] - Howard Marks highlighted that transformative technologies often lead to excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in overcapacity and inflated asset prices [2] Economic Perspective - Despite high capital expenditures, major tech firms are seeing an increase in return on invested capital, indicating economic viability [3] - The AI sector is still in its early stages of commercialization, with demand for computing power expected to grow due to advancements in multi-modal models and real-time inference [3] - The current valuation of AI-related companies remains relatively rational compared to historical bubbles, supported by the dual logic of revenue growth and cost reduction [3] Investment Opportunities - The optical module sector is identified as a core support for AI hardware, with increasing industry demand and the rapid scaling of 1.6T products [4] - Domestic computing power sectors are expected to benefit from relaxed export restrictions on advanced computing cards and accelerated IPO processes for local chip companies [4] - Investment strategies focusing on AI-related sectors, such as robotics and computing power, are recommended to capture potential growth opportunities [4]

编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 昨晚，美股AI板块遭遇了一场集体"血洗"：英伟达跌3.81%，AMD重挫5.29%，博通大跌4.48%，谷歌 跌3.21%，特斯拉跌4.62%，而风暴中心的甲骨文（Oracle），更是大跌5.40%，股价创下9月以来的新 低。 仅仅一晚，数千亿美元的市值灰飞烟灭。 但这并非毫无征兆。在经历了长达两年的单边上涨后，美股AI板块正进入一个最为凶险的阶段——估 值逻辑的根本性切换。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 昨夜的暴跌，表面看是一次个案引发的恐慌，实则是美股AI"多空拉锯战"中，空头取得的首场决定性胜 利。华尔街的耐心正在耗尽，他们不再为宏大的"梦想"买单，开始拿着计算器，锱铢必较地清算每一笔 投入产出比（ROI）。 一、 100亿美元的"黑天鹅" 这场暴跌的导火索，是一次看似不起眼的融资终止。 Blue Owl Capital，一家在私募信贷领域颇具分量的机构，突然宣布终止与甲骨文的谈判。这原本是一笔 高达100亿美元的巨额交易，旨在为甲骨文位于密歇根州的数据中心项目提供资金支持。 理由简单而残酷：担心甲骨文的债务规模和支出过大。 在过去两年里，AI行业的增长逻 ...

近期，知名经济学家洪灝在与瑞士宝盛的本年度收官对话中，展望了2026年的美股、A股市场，并重点剖析了AI、大宗商品及人民币等核心议题。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下: 1、现在说（美国AI）泡沫要破，可能还为时过早。但必须承认估值已经很贵了。那么历史上达到如此估值的高度次数屈指可数。 以及一般来说，这个估值水平， 美股未来7到10年的平均回报率往往只有个位数。 2、 从下半年开始，我们就建议客户把美股获利的部分转向非美市场。主要原因是 美股相对于其他市场的表现已经达到历史高位，再期待它持续跑赢，可 能不太现实。 3、我 相信如果投AI的话，我们会继续投现在已经崭露头角的公司，以及一些大型的从以前的科技、互联网公司转型成AI公司的领头羊。 以下是投资作业本课代表（微信ID：touzizuoyeben）整理的精华内容，分享给大家： 2026年只要经济不太差，A股值得期待 主持人：年初至今，上证和沪深300指数以及港股恒生指数涨了很多，在全球市场算是领先的。不过从十月开始，股指上升势头有所减弱，板块之间开始 轮动，比如科技类的成长股承压明显，反而价值股和周期股更受资金青睐。 4、如果AI故事继续，经济周期位置不变 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】全球基金经理正以前所未有的乐观姿态拥抱风险。美国银行最新发布的一项基金经 理调查显示，12月全球投资组合中的平均现金持有率已从11月的3.7%骤降至3.3%，创下自1999年该调查开始 以来的最低纪录。这一极端数据表明，投资者正将大量资金投入股票和大宗商品，对2026年的市场前景寄予 厚望。 美国银行投资策略师Elyas Galou提出了一个核心问题："最大的问题是：如果美债收益率升至5%以上，全球股 市还能表现良好吗？"这反映出当前市场在股市乐观预期与债券利率上行压力之间，正面临着艰难的平衡。随 着2026年的临近，全球市场将在这种极度乐观与潜在脆弱的交织中，开启新篇。（文馨） 多家投资机构也表达了类似看法。富达国际全球多元资产主管Matthew Quaife认为，在美联储降息周期持续的 背景下，明年可能是一个投资回报率相当高的年份。瑞银财富管理同样指出，强劲的盈利增长预期将为股市 提供关键支撑，并建议配置不足的投资者考虑增加全球股票敞口，看好美国科技、医疗保健以及欧洲和亚洲 部分市场的机会。 然而，这些一致的乐观情绪也引发了市场资深人士的警惕。他们认为，基金经理手中极低的现金水平如同 ...