随着担忧重心从通胀转向英国陷入困境的经济和就业市场，英国央行极有可能在周四送出一份"圣诞大 礼"。 交易员和经济学家预计，英国央行将把基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%，为近三年来的最低水平。决议 将于北京时间周四晚8点公布。 这将是英国央行货币政策委员（MPC）自8月以来首次放松政策。此前外界普遍预期行长贝利将再次投 下决定性的一票，但周三英国通胀数据的急剧下降，增加了MPC四名鹰派成员中有人倒戈的可能性。 英国价格压力消退的证据为降息扫清了障碍，而上个月的预算案也旨在短期内降低通胀。即便如此，英 国央行正逐渐接近其降息周期的尾声，如果该央行在周四如期降息，市场目前仅完全定价了未来再进行 一次降息。 投票分歧 在11月，贝利站在了鹰派阵营一边，该阵营包括副行长伦巴德利和首席经济学家皮尔。贝利当时表示， 在政府预算案即将出台之际，他需要看到更多通胀下降的证据，才能支持进一步放松政策。 自那次会议以来，数据指向了一个更加温和的局面。继11月降幅超出预期后，英国通胀已冷却至八个月 来的最低点，私营部门工资增长放缓，经济连续两个月出现萎缩，预计这足以说服贝利与英国央行的四 名鸽派成员保持一致，其中包括另外两位副行长 ...

12月18日（周四）21:30，美国将公布11月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告，预计将显示通胀小幅回升。 经济学家预计，11月CPI同比或从9月的3.0%小幅上升至3.1%。剔除食品和能源后的核心CPI同比料将录得3%。 由于政府停摆导致10月期间大部分数据无法采集，美国劳工统计局（BLS）取消发布10月的CPI数据。这也意味着，BLS将无法提供11月的环比数据。一位 BLS发言人表示： "即将发布的新闻稿和数据库更新中，将不包含2025年11月的单月百分比变化数据，因为缺少2025年10月的数据。" 法国外贸银行（Natixis）首席美国经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）表示，环比变化对于判断通胀趋势至关重要。"人们真正关注的是环比数 据，"他说，"同比通胀并不能提供太多信号。" 尽管如此，经济学家仍尝试通过将11月价格指数水平与9月进行对比，来推测通胀的短期变化趋势。市场预测显示，整体CPI在11月可能环比上涨0.3%，与9 月的0.30%涨幅相当，核心CPI环比涨幅预计为0.3%，略高于9月的0.2%。 数据采集缺失可能对CPI质量产生持续影响 数据采集缺失也为本次CPI的可靠 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, improving short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectations [3] - The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses, and the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85% [3] - Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high, but caution is needed due to potential over - bought conditions and regulatory risks [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601) and methanol (MA2605) are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term; coking coal (JM2605) is expected to rebound from the bottom; palm oil (P2605) is recommended to be shorted on rallies; platinum and lithium (PT2606/PD) are recommended to be bought on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The A - share market rebounded led by pro - cyclical stocks, but the market lacks upward momentum and has limited downside space. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market continued to recover, with ultra - long bonds making up for losses. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation, and for trading, fast entry and exit with timely profit - taking are advised. For the 10 - year variety, the upper - limit expectation of interest rates will not deviate significantly from 1.85%, and attention should be paid to the support level of T2603 around 107.6 - 107.8. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and seeing, and for the futures - spot strategy, attention can be paid to the positive spread of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals saw value reshaping driven by funds, with silver hitting a new high. Unilateral long positions can be held, but caution is needed when chasing highs and timely profit - taking is recommended. For platinum and lithium, it is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies or lock positions [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract oscillated narrowly, and short - term oscillation is expected [3] Commodity Sector - **Steel**: Steel prices maintained an oscillating range. In May, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to trade in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [3] - **Iron Ore**: With a decline in hot - metal production and an increase in port inventory, iron ore oscillated and rebounded, and it is recommended to view it as oscillating upward, with a reference range of 730 - 800 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coal in the production area continued to decline, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. The futures price rebounded from an oversold level, and it is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December was implemented, and the port trading price led the decline. It is recommended to view it as an oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1450 - 1600 [3] - **Copper**: The inventory in three locations increased, and spot trading was average. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: The price oscillated at the bottom, and short - term volatility may increase. Short - term traders can lightly build long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: After the interest - rate cut expectation was fulfilled, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21700 - 22400, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price oscillated following the aluminum price, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum narrowed slightly. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20700 - 21400, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and shorting AL03 can be considered [3] - **Zinc**: The center of the zinc price declined, and spot trading improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the main contract at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse spread [3] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and the tin price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions and buy on dips on pullbacks [3] - **Nickel**: The expected quota in Indonesia decreased, and the price repaired from a low level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 112000 - 116000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted slightly upward, and the supply - demand imbalance had limited driving force. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12200 - 12800 [3] - **New Energy**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The expectation of production cuts increased, and the futures price rose and then fell. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to rise to a new high, and it is recommended to wait and see with a bullish - oscillating view [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment was stimulated by news, and the price rose sharply. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions appropriately [3] - **Chemical Industry**: - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and there is support at low levels. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6600 - 7000 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, with limited driving force. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips; a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 at low levels can be considered [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to narrow the processing fee on rallies [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The decline in bottle - chip inventory supports the processing fee, and attention should be paid to the progress of device restart and production. It is recommended to sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies; the main - contract processing fee is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] - **Ethanol**: Domestic supply is gradually shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is recommended to sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the driving force is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level around 6400 [3] - **LLDPE**: The North China region maintained a risk - free basis, and trading weakened. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price remained stable, and the basis weakened slightly. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol**: Both the spot price and the basis strengthened, and trading improved. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread for the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to take a bearish view [3] - **PVC**: A foreign device was permanently shut down, triggering a sharp rebound in the futures price. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound [3] - **Soda Ash**: Production is at a high level, with prominent over - supply, and there is no continuous driving force for a rebound. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [3] - **Glass**: The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, with no upward positive driving force. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions [3] - **Natural Rubber**: There is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the rubber price oscillates in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side is strong, and BR continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of BR2602 around 11200 [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have narrow - range adjustments; the pig market has a sentiment of holding back sales, and it is in a bottom - grinding phase; corn is in a narrow - range oscillation; vegetable oils rebounded in the short - term due to US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, and the P main contract may test the support level of 8200 - 8300 in the short - term; sugar is expected to oscillate weakly; cotton's upward trend slowed down and faces hedging pressure, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100; egg prices are mostly stable, with a slight decline in inventory in the circulation link, and are expected to oscillate weakly; apple's stocking is less than expected, and it is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically; jujube's new - year supply decreased slightly, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [3]

新华财经北京12月18日电美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）17日表示，尽管美国通胀持 续放缓，货币政策仍处于限制性区间，未来存在进一步降息空间，但"没有必要急于行动"。 沃勒被视为下一任美联储主席的潜在人选之一，并预计将于18日与特朗普会面。被问及此事时，沃勒回 应称："自己也是这么听说的。"但他明确强调将坚决捍卫美联储独立性。"我花了20年时间研究和捍卫 央行独立性及其重要性，在这方面我留下了大量研究和记录。" 美国劳工统计局即将发布因政府停摆而推迟的10月和11月就业数据。威廉姆斯在活动后对记者表示，预 计报告将显示"就业增长相对缓慢，且劳动力市场逐渐降温的迹象"。但他同时表示，现在讨论2026年1 月FOMC会议选项"还为时过早"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 威廉姆斯强调，今年的三次降息是基于"使通胀过高与就业疲软两大风险大致平衡"的考量。"我们无法 确切知道明年的贸易政策、通胀或经济会发生什么，但我认为我们为此做好了充分准备。" 沃勒在公开采访中指出，当前联邦基金利率水平较其估算的"中性利率"高出最多约100个基点。他预 计，通胀将在2026年前继续降温，并支持以"稳步 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].

美联储上周已完成年内连续第三次25个基点的降息，市场普遍预期，明年1月的政策会议大概率将维持利 率稳定，政策制定者显然在等待更全面的经济数据支撑决策，单一CPI报告难以撼动现有政策基调。 在过去三年的多数时段里，CPI报告始终是美股交易员决策体系中最关心的数据之一，但如今，投资者正 以近乎漠然的姿态，等待周四揭晓的11月通胀数据。 巴克莱银行的追踪数据显示，期权交易员当前押注标普500指数当日波动幅度将控制在0.7%以内，这一预 期显著低于今年9月前12份CPI报告所引发的1%平均实际波动水平。 相较于通胀率的小幅起伏，央行如今更关注劳动力市场的疲软信号。周二公布的就业数据显示11月美国就 业增长持续低迷，失业率攀升至四年高点，这一态势在10月的疲软表现后仍未好转，为明年的降息操作预 留了政策空间。 另一位候选人、前美联储理事凯文・沃什也被特朗普视为有力人选，其政策倾向同样被市场解读为支持宽 松。 多重因素的叠加，使得11月CPI报告沦为美股市场的"边缘数据"。 11月CPI报告因政府停摆导致数据收集工作中断而推迟至周四出炉，不仅时效性大打折扣，数据可靠性也 面临质疑。更关键的是，10月CPI报告已永久缺失， ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to provide insights into future policy directions for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve, amid concerns about the U.S. economy's momentum and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Data Outlook - The CPI saw a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in April, the lowest in nearly four years, but inflation rose to 3% by September, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to increased tariffs [3][4]. - The November CPI report is anticipated to show a slight increase in overall CPI from 3.0% to 3.1%, with core CPI expected to remain stable at 3% [4]. - Service prices, a major driver of inflation, increased by 3.5% year-on-year as of September, but this is the smallest increase since the pandemic began, indicating potential for inflation to decline if service price growth slows [4]. Federal Reserve Internal Disagreements - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with rising prices due to tariffs suppressing consumer demand and leading to tighter hiring policies [5][6]. - Retail sales showed no growth in October, particularly affecting low-income households, while high-income households continue to drive non-essential spending, highlighting a widening economic gap [5]. - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times since September, but Chairman Powell indicated that further cuts are unlikely until labor market and inflation trends are clearer [5][6]. Future Projections - The Federal Reserve's updated dot plot suggests only one rate cut may occur this year, while futures markets indicate a nearly 80% probability of a cut by June [7]. - The complexity of future rate cuts will depend on employment and inflation performance, with potential resistance from hawkish members of the Fed if the labor market remains stable [7]. - The impact of a new Federal Reserve chair is uncertain, with expectations that significant rate cuts may only occur in response to rising recession fears, which could negatively affect the Republican midterm election outlook [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve amid a challenging economic landscape [3]. Economic Data Outlook - In April, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth fell to a near four-year low of 2.3%. However, following the increase of tariffs to the highest levels in decades by President Trump, prices began to rise. By September, the inflation rate had increased to 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5]. - The core issue is whether prices will continue to rise or if they will begin to decline as anticipated by several Federal Reserve officials and economists. The November CPI report, delayed due to a government shutdown, is expected to help clarify this situation [5]. Labor Market and Employment Data - Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times to support a weakening labor market. The combined employment report for October and November, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years [6]. - Wall Street anticipates a potential decline in the unemployment rate in December, but short-term hiring activity in the job market is unlikely to improve [6]. Inflation Predictions - Institutions predict that the overall CPI and core CPI will both rise by 0.3% month-on-month in November. The year-on-year increase in overall prices may slightly rise from 3.0% to 3.1%, potentially marking the peak of inflation driven by tariffs. The core CPI year-on-year growth is expected to stabilize at 3% [7]. - Key indicators to watch include commodity prices and service costs, with service prices having increased by 3.5% year-on-year as of September, the smallest increase since the pandemic. A continued slowdown in service price growth may indicate a forthcoming decline in inflation [7]. Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with tariff-related price increases suppressing consumer demand and prompting companies to tighten hiring policies. Retail sales showed no month-on-month growth in October, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [8]. - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income households continuing to drive non-essential spending, while low-income households have reduced spending on travel and clothing, highlighting the widening economic disparity [8]. Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreements - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have highlighted internal divisions regarding future monetary policy. Some officials warn that it is premature to declare that inflation has been tamed, while others maintain a dovish stance, suggesting that inflation may soon ease [9]. - The updated interest rate dot plot from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicates that only one rate cut may occur this year, while futures markets suggest an 80% probability of a rate cut by June [10]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the complexity of the economic situation, with the potential for further interest rate cuts depending on employment and inflation performance. The Federal Reserve's internal dynamics and the impact of the upcoming leadership change may also influence future monetary policy decisions [10].

Market Insights - The UK November CPI year-on-year increase has slowed to 3.2%, the lowest level since March of this year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, marking the lowest since July 2024 [1][2] - The European Parliament has approved a plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - Germany's December business climate index has declined to 87.6, down from 88 in November, the lowest level since May [2] - Venezuela's oil export business is reported to be operating normally [2] Economic Indicators - France's economy is projected to grow by 0.9% for the entire year of 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2% expected in Q4, followed by 0.3% growth in both Q1 and Q2 of the next year [2] - New Zealand's Q3 GDP has grown by 1.1%, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.9%, with improvements noted in retail spending, manufacturing, and construction [2] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a slight decline in global coal demand by 2030 due to increased competition from renewable energy, natural gas, and nuclear energy [2] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 228.29 points to close at 47,885.97, a decrease of 0.47%; the S&P 500 dropped by 78.83 points to 6,721.43, down 1.16%; and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 418.14 points to 22,693.32, a decline of 1.81% [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.90% to $4,371.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce [3] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for January 2026 increased by $0.67 to $55.94 per barrel, a rise of 1.21%; Brent crude oil for February delivery rose by $0.76 to $59.68 per barrel, an increase of 1.29% [4] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.23% to close at 98.368; the euro was trading at 1.1745 against the dollar, down from 1.1758; the pound was at 1.3378, down from 1.3426 [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 17, with the Dow Jones down 0.47% at 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 down 1.16% at 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.81% at 22,693.32 points [3]. - Major technology stocks collectively declined, with Tesla dropping over 4%, Nvidia nearly 4%, and Google over 3% [2][5]. Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.78%, with significant declines in major chip stocks such as ASML, ARM, and AMD, each dropping over 5%, and Broadcom down over 4% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.73%. Notable declines included Century Internet and NIO, both down over 3%, while Dingdong Maicai surged over 22% [6]. Commodity Market - Precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.9% to $4,371.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce [6]. - Crude oil prices also increased, with light crude oil futures for January delivery rising by $0.67 to $55.94 per barrel (up 1.21%) and Brent crude for February delivery up $0.76 to $59.68 per barrel (up 1.29%) [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains restrictive, with room for potential interest rate cuts in the future. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that there is no urgency for rate cuts, suggesting a gradual approach towards neutral policy rates to address slowing inflation while maintaining economic resilience [9].