Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - **Real - estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market Situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - **Later - stage Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - **Industry Operation**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Logic Section - In December 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [3] - In mid - January, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.8% increase from the same period last month [3] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons from the previous week [3] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 57.94%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 41.18 percentage points year - on - year [3] - The finished steel fluctuated last week, first falling and then rising. The late - week rebound was driven by the raw material end, and the steel price continued to consolidate in the low - level range. The market drive is not strong, and the weak demand characteristics put some pressure on the price. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for the price [3] Group 4: Summary According to the View Section - The finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of finished steel products will experience a period of low-level consolidation [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Economic Data in 2025 - China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan; the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.9%, 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous year; fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2% [3] - At the end of 2025, China's population was 140,489,000. The number of births was 792,000, and the number of deaths was 1,131,000, resulting in a population decrease of 339,000 [3] Steel Production and Export Data in 2025 - China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel production was 1,446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [3] - China's cumulative exports of steel bars were 19.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.4% [3] Market Situation of Finished Steel Products - Finished steel products fluctuated and declined yesterday. The supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, showing obvious off - season characteristics. With temperature drops in many parts of China this week, the terminal demand for building materials further weakened. The macro market was calm, having limited impact on prices [3] Later Concerns - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the material will experience low - level consolidation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Macro - Policy Background**: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss measures to boost consumption, including improving long - term mechanisms, formulating the "15th Five - Year" consumption expansion plan, and the urban and rural residents' income increase plan [3]. - **Steel Mill Operation Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.99%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points from the previous week and 13.86 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Performance**: The material fluctuated sideways last week with a small range. The fundamentals were stable with obvious off - season characteristics. With the temperature drop in many domestic areas this week, the terminal demand for building materials further weakened, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [3]. - **Later Concerns**: The report suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The成材 is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For成材 - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The成材 continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price center continues to move down [3] For Aluminum - Last week, the price of Shanghai Aluminum pulled back from a high. The market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January, while in China, there is still strong macro - positive sentiment [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite was stable last week. The supply shortage in the north is expected to gradually ease, and the inventory of alumina plants increased by 703,600 tons. The price of domestic ore is expected to decline [3] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing sectors were divided last week, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the operating rate is expected to be weak in the short term [3] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 749,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移且偏弱运行，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2][4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，宏观推动暂缓、基本面支撑偏弱，但资金看涨情绪未冷却，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，多数1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] - 观点为震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] 铝锭 -宏观上美国就业市场稳健，市场预计美联储1月27 - 28日会议维持利率不变，特朗普决定暂不对关键矿物征关税，资金对白银、铜、铝等看多情绪降温 [3] -北方铝土矿复产初期生产节奏慢，国产矿石供应偏紧格局有望逐步缓解，两会后生产节奏预计加快；南方国产矿生产无明显变动；截至本周四氧化铝厂铝土矿库存环比增加70.36万吨；氧化铝价格走弱，氧化铝厂对铝土矿溢价采购意愿低，预计国产矿价格仍有下行空间 [4] -本周国内铝下游加工各版块龙头企业开工率分化，受春节临近成品备库需求影响，开工率环比微升0.2个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价抑制下游消费与行业开工回升 [4] - 1月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存73万吨，较上周一同比上涨4.6万吨 [4] - 观点为预计价格短期高位运行，关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: Expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and the low - key winter storage has limited price support. The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - **铝锭**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Macro - expectations boost the price, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the high - price risks during the domestic off - season with accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production and Supply**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (mid - to late January for shutdown and around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month for resumption), which is expected to affect the total construction steel output by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Market**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Performance**: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern, and the low - key winter storage has limited price support [3]. **铝锭** - **Macro - factors**: The market is concerned about key economic data that may affect the Fed's policy and global market trends. The US dollar is weakening, and geopolitical risks have led to a demand for hedging. Coupled with the domestic production capacity ceiling and short - term domestic consumption policy boost on the first day after the holiday, aluminum prices are strengthening [2]. - **Supply - side**: Newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is increasing. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, and the daily output is expected to continue to grow in the short term [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: In December, the average fully - taxed total cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.7% month - on - month and decreased by 23.3% year - on - year. Although the total cost increased, the cost increase was lower than the aluminum price increase, and the profit margin expanded. In December, 100% of the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was profitable [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9%. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [3]. - **Inventory**: Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through the 600,000 - ton and 650,000 - ton marks. By the end of December, the cumulative inventory increase was nearly 15% compared with the inventory on December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to the combination of four factors: increased supply - side arrivals, weak demand - side digestion, industrial - structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption [3].

Report Summary of Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report Core View - The price center of finished products is moving down and running weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is running strongly in the short - term, but attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and are expected to resume production from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center is moving down, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The future trend is to be affected by macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - Supply: Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is expected to continue to increase in the short - term. An electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20 [3] - Cost: In December, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.7% month - on - month and decreased by 23.3% year - on - year. Although the cost of alumina raw materials decreased, the total cost increased due to rising electricity and auxiliary material costs. However, the cost increase was lower than the aluminum price increase, and the profit margin expanded [3] - Demand: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9% last week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [3] - Inventory: Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons, with a cumulative increase of nearly 15% by the end of December compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption [3] - Price: Supported by macro - sentiment and industry restructuring news, the price is running strongly at a high level. However, considering the domestic off - season, inventory accumulation, and approaching Spring Festival holidays, attention should be paid to high - price risks and macro guidance. The short - term price is expected to be strong, also affected by macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4][5]

Group 1 - As of December 26, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai tin futures closed at 338,550 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 18,475 contracts [1] - During the week of December 22-26, the Shanghai tin futures opened at 344,880 CNY/ton, reached a high of 349,130 CNY/ton, and a low of 328,290 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.05% [1] Group 2 - On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 8,153 tons of tin warehouse receipts, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons, a growth rate of 7.25% [2] - The average price of Mysteel 1 tin ingots on December 25 was 332,750 CNY/ton, down 5,750 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of December 25, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total of 56,300 long positions and 56,500 short positions, resulting in a net position of -213 contracts, an increase of 3,293 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Group 3 - According to Jinrui Futures, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing, but the incremental increase is limited; in Indonesia, the transaction volume on JFX and ICDX was 4,420 tons as of December 23 [4] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with stable production expected from smelters; traditional demand in consumer electronics is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream buyers [4] - Emerging sectors such as semiconductors and AI servers provide some structural support for prices, but overall tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to tight raw material supply and weak downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The report suggests paying attention to macro - policy, downstream demand, macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policy and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Logic**: Overseas data has increased the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, providing macro - level support. Domestically, for domestic bauxite, the northern resumption is slow and the supply is unstable, but the alumina plant's inventory has reached a high level, so the price may decline. For imported bauxite, Guinea's shipping volume is high and a large mining project is resuming production, which will support future supply. The aluminum price rose yesterday, and with the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping and a large number of arrivals this week, along with environmental protection restrictions affecting downstream processing enterprises, the receiving sentiment weakened on Monday. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]