Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities' report indicates that the Sino-U.S. negotiations are slow-moving variables, with inevitable fluctuations impacting the mid-term market's elasticity and rhythm [1] Market Analysis - Short-term market pricing appears more restrained compared to April, with future developments dependent on both parties' statements [1] - The market is entering a consolidation phase, influenced by the need for the tech sector to validate performance and the pressure from less favorable cost-performance ratios, alongside insufficient support from other sectors [1] Mid-term Outlook - There is an expectation of upward elasticity in A-share earnings for next year, which is difficult to refute, while the valuation comparison with strong market trends remains neutral [1] - The foundation for a positive capital cycle still exists, indicating an upward trend in the market's central tendency [1] Investment Strategy - The report suggests taking appropriate profit-taking opportunities to maintain flexibility [1] - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in asset allocation, focusing on cost-performance and industry prosperity, particularly in semiconductor equipment, AI edge computing, and lithium battery materials [1] - Continued holding of gold is recommended as a hedge against uncertainties arising from Sino-U.S. tensions [1]

当中国人民享受假期的欢愉时，特朗普却面临着越来越多的麻烦。过去几天内，特朗普政府接连迎来了 三大坏消息，这让他不得不紧急发布声明来稳定局势，而美国财长也公开暗示中国：不要不给美国面 子。 在分析这些坏消息之前，我们先来看看美国国内的局势。目前，美国的"内战"局势愈发严峻，芝加哥等 地爆发了大规模的暴力冲突。特朗普已经派遣了国民警卫队来进行镇压，但上百人的抗议队伍与移民 局、海关执法人员发生了剧烈冲突，甚至爆发了枪击事件。先是加利福尼亚州，接着是俄勒冈州和伊利 诺伊州，似乎所有由民主党主导的州都成为了特朗普政策的打击目标。 能导致美国债务危机提前爆发，进而引发经济风暴。如果美债问题失控，整个美国经济将遭遇巨大的冲 击。 而在外部，美国和欧洲的关系也在恶化。随着俄乌战争的持续，普京显然没有停止推动俄罗斯与欧洲的 矛盾。特朗普虽然口头上支持乌克兰，但依然坚持要求欧洲购买武器再向乌克兰提供援助，这无疑让美 国在经济上受益，而欧洲却为此付出了代价。长期下去，欧洲的内部矛盾会加剧，美欧之间的隔阂也会 越来越大，而这正是普京所期待的局面。 与此同时，欧洲国家对美国的信任逐渐动摇。意大利和瑞士近期分别邀请中国外长王毅访问，显 ...

Group 1 - China is leveraging its rare earth resources as a strategic card in the context of US-China tensions, seeking negotiations to alleviate its critical domestic rare earth reserves situation [1] - The US is exploring a partnership with Pakistan to develop a port in Pasni, which could facilitate the transport of key minerals to the US, potentially enhancing its bargaining position in negotiations with China [1][2] - The proposed Pasni port could strategically counter China's influence by providing a closer alternative to Gwadar port, enhancing US military and economic interests in the region [2] Group 2 - Pakistan has expressed willingness to supply critical rare metals to the US, signing a $500 million investment agreement to establish a complete supply chain for rare earth elements [3] - Despite the strategic advantages, the US faces challenges in re-engaging with Pakistan due to ongoing terrorism issues and the complex geopolitical landscape involving China and India [5] - The immediate impact of the Pasni port strategy on US-China negotiations may be limited, as the US is currently more focused on agricultural concessions rather than intimidation tactics [7] Group 3 - Trump's strategy provides the US with new leverage but also introduces risks and uncertainties, emphasizing the need for China to maintain its long-term competitiveness in critical sectors like rare earths [9]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the "Doupo 2601" contract, the previous settlement price was 2961, opening at 2972, with a high of 2973, a low of 2930, and closing at 2937, down 24 or -0.81%, with a trading volume of 1050116 and an open interest of 1986148, an increase of 48684 [6]. - The "Doupo 2509" contract had a previous settlement of 2870, opened at 2877, high of 2877, low of 2855, and closed at 2858, down 12 or -0.42%, with a volume of 6058 and an open - interest of 43565, an increase of 343 [6]. - The "Doupo 2511" contract had a previous settlement of 2934, opened at 2942, high of 2946, low of 2898, and closed at 2905, down 29 or -0.99%, with a volume of 86345 and an open - interest of 454900, a decrease of 24736 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market oscillated, with the main contract at 1010 cents [6]. - **Policy change**: The Argentine government announced on Monday to suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The previous export tariff for Argentine soybeans was 26%, and for soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5%. After reducing the tariff to 0, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US without considering tariffs [6]. - **Supply analysis**: Some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been successive orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August. The procurement volume for September and October is sufficient, indicating overall supply security until the end of November. The potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean procurement. Argentina and Brazil's remaining soybeans can make up for the approximately 1200 million tons of US soybeans purchased during the November - January shipping period last year. However, two points need attention: the Argentine export tariff reduction policy lasts until October 31, and the 12 - 1 January shipping period may rely on Brazilian soybeans; also, the Sino - US negotiation situation [6]. - **Price trend**: The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened. With frequent consultations between China and the US and high inventory in reality, prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. Some potential positives, such as the expected reduction of US soybean yield per unit and dry weather in Brazil, are unlikely to be reflected in the market in the short term. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline before the holiday [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA quarterly inventory report**: Analysts' average estimate of US soybean inventory on September 1 is 323 million bushels, with an estimated range of 295 - 360 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year. The USDA on September 12 reported an estimated year - end inventory of 330 million bushels for the 2024/2025 US soybean season. Analysts expect the report to show that the 2024 US soybean production will be revised to 4366 million bushels, with an estimated range of 4350 - 4391 million bushels [7][8]. - **USDA export sales report**: As of the week ending September 18, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in current - market - year US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, and the market expected a net increase of 600,000 - 1,600,000 tons. The net increase in next - year's US soybean export sales was 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 512,400 tons. The new sales of current - market - year US soybeans were 727,600 tons, and the new sales of next - market - year soybeans were 0 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report mentions multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 01" contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Center of CCB Futures [14][16][13]

Report Summary - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and their by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, shaking the shortage logic for the fourth quarter. With sufficient purchases for September and October, the supply until the end of November is generally worry - free. However, the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean purchases, Argentine policy continuity, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - The market is currently affected by Argentina's policy change and high inventory, leading to a significant price decline. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential bullish factors, and the technical trend is weak. The market is expected to experience low - level fluctuations after a rapid decline [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 2922, the opening price was 2958, the highest price was 2976, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2967, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,262,657, the open interest was 1,937,464, and the open interest decreased by 97,619. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2851, the opening price was 2858, the highest price was 2875, the lowest price was 2858, the closing price was 2870, with a rise of 19 and a gain of 0.67%. The trading volume was 13,790, the open interest was 43,222, and the open interest increased by 4,295. - For the Soybean Meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 2895, the opening price was 2929, the highest price was 2950, the lowest price was 2922, the closing price was 2940, with a rise of 45 and a gain of 1.55%. The trading volume was 75,971, the open interest was 479,636, and the open interest decreased by 17,194 [6]. - **External Market and Policy Impact**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract at 1015 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. After the tax reduction, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans in China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US. Some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Argentina's government announced on Monday that it would suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches 7 billion dollars. Previously, the export tax on Argentine soybeans was 26%, and that on soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5% [6][7]. - Since Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products this week, Chinese buyers have purchased about 20 ships (about 1.3 million tons) of Argentine soybeans, an increase from the previously reported 10 - 15 ships. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of formula feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 3.4%, 8.3%, and 7.9% respectively [18]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spread between Soybean Meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between Soybean Meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the Soybean Meal 01 contract. The data sources are Wind and the Research Center of CCB Futures [11][13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the commodity market in relation to global liquidity and monetary policy, particularly in the context of the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to influence commodity prices and demand recovery [4][11]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Commodity Market - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to create a new narrative for future rate cuts, impacting the commodity market through liquidity-driven mechanisms, demand recovery expectations, and inflation trading [4][11]. - The market often anticipates these changes, as seen with gold prices rising before the actual rate cut, followed by a "sell the fact" reaction post-announcement [5]. Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while the core CPI rose by 0.9%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [5][6]. - China's PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting some improvement in energy and raw material prices [6]. Export and Consumption Trends - China's export growth in USD terms was 4.4% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed, particularly in exports to the US, which fell by 33.1% [6]. - Domestic consumption, as reflected in retail sales, grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a still-weak recovery in internal demand [6]. Commodity Supply Dynamics - Certain metals are showing signs of demand recovery, with lithium carbonate experiencing strong demand due to government policies and international orders, reflecting a 246% year-on-year increase in orders [7]. - The new energy storage initiatives set by the government are expected to drive significant growth in the lithium battery sector, with a direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [7]. Industrial Silicon and Coal Supply - The industrial silicon sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with production expected to decrease by 17% year-on-year in 2025 [8]. - Recent regulatory measures in Inner Mongolia indicate a tightening of coal supply, with potential production reductions of over 61 million tons if strict compliance is enforced [10]. Market Outlook - The current financial attributes are driving commodity price volatility, with expectations of price increases supported by supply-side constraints and a shift towards a more accommodative global liquidity environment [11]. - The article suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on specific commodities influenced by supply-side changes and macroeconomic events, while being cautious of potential downturns related to US economic data [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from September to October is OI2601 + 220, and from November to December is OI2601 + 230; the basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in September is OI2601 + 310, and in October is OI2601 + 330. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the spot market is Y2601 + 150, in October is Y2601 + 160, from October to January is Y2601 + 190, from February to May is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July is Y2605 + 200. The basis price of 24 - degree palm olein in East China in September is P2601 - 50, in October is P2601 + 0, and from October to November is P2601 + 50 [7] - Market analysis: Affected by the decline of US soybean oils and fats and the Malaysian market, the domestic oils and fats sector opened high and closed low. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries. The progress of Sino - US negotiations made the market speculate that China might purchase US agricultural products, and the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter might increase, causing funds to withdraw. The near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly sold at higher basis prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - Canadian trade progress and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [7] - Market forecast: It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in the near term. Soybean oil has certain support around 8200, and the fluctuation range of palm oil is approximately 9000 - 9600 [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the 724,191 tons exported from August 1 - 15. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase compared to 8,800 tons in the same period last month [8] - Palm oil production forecast: Apex Securities analysts said that palm oil production may peak again from September to October and then decline due to favorable weather conditions [8] - Indian oil imports: In August 2025, India's palm oil imports increased by 15.76% to 990,528 tons compared to July; soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to 367,917 tons; and sunflower oil imports increased by 28.53% to 257,080 tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data charts: Include charts of spot prices of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm olein, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [10][12][20]