Group 1: Soybean Market Overview - CBOT soybean futures rose due to signs of the U.S. federal government potentially resuming operations and optimistic expectations for U.S. soybean export prospects, with January futures closing at $11.30 per bushel, up 13 cents [1] - The December soybean meal futures contract increased by $2.90, settling at $320.00 per short ton, while December soybean oil futures rose by 0.90 cents to close at 50.58 cents per pound [2] - The Dalian soybean meal futures market showed a weak trend, with the main contract 2601 opening lower and closing down at 3054 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan, with trading volume at 822,179 and open interest at 1,602,533 [3] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 10-20 yuan per ton, supported by the resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the expectation of a USDA report on crop yields and global agricultural supply and demand [4] - Analysts expect the USDA to lower the U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 4.266 billion bushels, with an average yield adjustment to 53.1 bushels per acre, and an increase in year-end inventory to 304 million bushels [4] - Brazilian soybean planting is at 61% completion, while Argentina has just started planting at 4.4%, with weather conditions needing close monitoring [4] Group 3: Corn Market Overview - The Dalian corn futures market saw the main contract 2601 open higher and close up at 2177 yuan, marking a 13 yuan increase, with trading volume at 672,958 and open interest at 954,084 [5] - CBOT corn futures also rose, influenced by a general increase in grain, stock, and oil markets, with December corn futures closing at $4.29-3/4 per bushel, up 2.5 cents [6][7] - Domestic corn prices showed a strong trend, with processing enterprises raising purchase prices, and the trading range for corn now between 2150-2300 yuan per ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones, high imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production increases. It will be affected by the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and continued arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term and await further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the inventory of soybeans in oil mills also declined from a high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile range in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the China - US trade negotiation agreement, means that the soybean meal market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 6. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, China's soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have all increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [33]. 7. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **US**: In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average. In 2025, the early - stage harvest progress is also provided [35][38][42]. - **Brazil**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 are presented, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][43]. - **Argentina**: The planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/2025 is given, with a comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [41]. 8. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 9. Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year [47]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level [48]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the demand for off - season stockpiling decreased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the US soybean price, and the futures profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The domestic pig inventory has been increasing, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded recently, while piglet prices remain weak [55][57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has improved recently [61].

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [1] Reported Industries - Bean meal and oil industries Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - For bean meal, with the opening of US soybean imports, costs drive the price up. In the short term, US soybeans are expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but may be slightly stronger. For oils, prices are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the guidance of supply and demand reports. In the short term, the upside pressure is large, but there is also support at the bottom [2][8][92] Section Summaries 1. Bean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Situation - As of November 7, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis price remained unchanged. After China announced the reduction of the import tax rate on US soybeans to 13%, both domestic and foreign markets accelerated their rise, but due to continuous losses in the domestic import soybean crushing profit, the ship - buying progress was slow, causing the US soybean price to fall from its high, and the domestic futures price also followed suit, but with a smaller decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate around 1100 cents, and the M2601 contract will operate in the range of [3000, 3100] [8][10] 1.2 Supply - On November 14, the USDA will release the November US soybean supply - demand report. Referring to the previous good - quality rate, the probability of a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit is relatively large, which supports the strong operation of US soybeans. As of November 1, the sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil was 47.1%, lower than 53.3% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil will improve, which is conducive to the sowing of soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume in November is normal, but from December to January, due to losses in import crushing profits, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction [8] 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the feed demand. The year - on - year increase in feed demand was more than 7%. In terms of the formula, due to the improved cost - effectiveness of bean meal and the relatively low price, the proportion of bean meal added increased year - on - year. It is expected that the year - on - year increase in bean meal demand in the fourth quarter will be more than 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of more than 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decrease to 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and an increase of 1.6005 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 29.06%. The bean meal inventory of oil mills continued to increase to 115,300 tons, an increase of 9840 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and an increase of 16,890 tons year - on - year, an increase of 17.16% [8] 1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield per unit increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents/bushel. Assuming a maximum loss of 150 cents/bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. However, the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is at a low level, and the trend of US soybeans is strong. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has weakened, while that of US soybeans has strengthened. Based on the latest quotes, the domestic bean meal cost price is calculated to be 2960 yuan/ton [8] 1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - After the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, there is no further short - term positive stimulus. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but due to losses in crushing profits and the entry into the inventory reduction cycle, the price is expected to be slightly stronger than that of US soybeans. The M2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of [3000, 3100], and the basis will maintain a weak trend. If the yield per unit is adjusted downward as expected in the supply - demand report on November 14, US soybeans are expected to rise and then fall, with the price center rising, and domestic bean meal prices will follow. The strategy suggestions are to mainly conduct range operations on the M2601 contract; lightly build long positions on the M2605 and M2609 contracts on dips, and hold existing long positions; spot enterprises should sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [8] 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Situation - As of the week of November 7, the palm oil main 01 contract fell 104 yuan/ton to 8660 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the soybean oil main 01 contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 8184 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 111 yuan/ton to 9533 yuan/ton. This week, the oil market showed weak palm oil and strong soybean and rapeseed oils, mainly because palm oil was under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October [92] 2.2 Palm Oil - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by more than 10%, while the export increase was small. The market expects the ending inventory in that month to accumulate to a high of 2.44 million tons, and the MPOB report is expected to be bearish. In early November, the data from SPPOMA showed that the production in Malaysia continued to increase, while the data from ITS showed weak exports, with strong supply and weak demand continuing to pressure the market. In Indonesia, GAPKI estimates that the country's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, combined with the potential obstacles to the implementation of B50 and the increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, will continue to pressure the palm oil price in the short term. However, after the recent decline in palm oil prices, India has been actively buying ships, and demand has improved. After November, Southeast Asia enters the production - reduction season, and La Nina this year may intensify the reduction, so there is still support at the bottom of palm oil prices. It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil 01 contract will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of the support level at 4000 - 4100 and the MPOB report on the 10th. In China, the estimated palm oil ship - buying volumes in October and November are 230,000 tons each, similar to the level in 2024. The palm oil supply from November to December is sufficient. As of October 31, the domestic palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in the short term [92] 2.3 Soybean Oil - Last week, China decided to maintain the 13% import tariff on US soybeans and restored the import access of three US soybean trading companies, injecting some positive sentiment into the market. However, the market is still waiting for the USDA or other official institutions to provide definite evidence of China's large - scale purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the 13% tariff on US soybeans is still higher than the 3% on Brazilian soybeans. China is accelerating the purchase of Brazilian soybeans as the premium of Brazilian soybeans declines, and the lack of details in the soybean purchase signing ceremony in Shanghai last Thursday has intensified the market's cautious sentiment towards soybean demand. It is expected that US soybeans will enter an oscillating phase after the previous rise. The 01 contract is temporarily expected to test the support level at 1100. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September exceeded 12 million tons, and the oil mills maintained a high operating rate. As of the week of October 31, the soybean oil inventory remained at a high of 1.2158 million tons, and the supply pressure continued to suppress prices. In the long term, the soybean import volume has gradually declined since October compared with the peak in the second and third quarters, which is conducive to the slow reduction of domestic soybean oil inventory. However, China previously imported a large amount of soybeans from Argentina when Argentina取消 its export tax, and US soybeans can also enter China again. The long - term soybean supply is still sufficient, which limits the speed of soybean oil inventory reduction [92] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is difficult to cancel the tariff on China in the short term, which has cooled the market's expectation of the rapid normalization of Sino - Canadian relations and the end of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. The market has started to trade the fundamental situation of tight rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter again. Without the import of Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed supply and demand will remain tight in the fourth quarter. The coastal rapeseed inventory has dropped to an extremely low level, causing most rapeseed crushing plants to shut down after the National Day. With the reduction in supply, domestic rapeseed oil is in the process of slow inventory reduction. As of October 31, the inventory dropped to 516,000 tons. Although the import of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil in November will help supplement the supply, China's ability to process Australian rapeseed is limited, and it is the peak season for oil consumption. The marginal improvement in supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be limited. However, it should be noted that the general direction of Sino - Canadian relations is still gradually improving, but there may be various twists and turns in the negotiations between the two countries. With the continuous existence of policy - related risks, the upward space for rapeseed oil prices is also limited [92] 2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the expected large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, the expected over - increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, the unclear prospects of B50, the market's wait for China to officially start large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the general improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations, the upside pressure on oils is large. However, the expectation of palm oil production reduction in Southeast Asia starting from November still exists. La Nina is unfavorable to the growth of palm oil in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America. The US soybean price has rebounded due to the expected improvement in Chinese demand, and the supply and demand of rapeseed in China's fourth quarter are still tight, so there is also support at the bottom of prices, and the overall trend is bottom - building. In the future, pay attention to whether the MPOB report on the 10th shows a large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and whether the USDA report on the 14th evening will lower the ending inventory of new - crop US soybeans. Among the varieties, rapeseed oil and soybean oil are stronger than palm oil. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction amplitude of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and whether the La Nina weather speculation in South America can be launched. It is expected that the oil market will fluctuate widely. The strategy suggestions are to pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9300 - 9400 for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils respectively, and not to blindly chase short positions. For the arbitrage side, stop the profit - taking on the strategy of widening the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean and palm oils [92]

高盛首席中国经济学家闪辉降中国2026与2027年GDP预期分别从4.3%和4.0%上调至4.8%与4.7%（2019年以来最大幅度的预期上调），理由是出口韧性强、中美贸易紧张局势缓和以及“十五五”规划带来的政策动力增强。闪辉表示，此次习特会表明，中国现在在贸易谈判中拥有了重要的筹码，尤其是在控制稀土出口方面，美国可能更难进一步加征关税。高盛还援引了中国近期召开的四中全会和“十五五”规划的成果，这些成果强调技术自主和产业竞争力。政策制定者旨在加大对高科技制造业和创新的投入，以此作为经济增长的驱动力，取代对房地产和基础设施的依赖。尽管这一战略可能迅速提振出口和企业利润，但闪辉警告称，提振家庭消费可能需要更长时间。高盛还指出，AI崛起有望在未来十年内将中国的长期增长潜力提升高达8%，从而有助于抵消人口结构和结构性不利因素。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - **Specific to each variety**: - **Bean meal**: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - **Palm oil**: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - **Soybean oil**: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - **Red dates**: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - **Live pigs**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - **International situation**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Production area situation**: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - **Supply and demand situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].

Domestic Insights - In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, compared to a previous growth of 8.3%[22] - High-frequency data indicates a significant rebound in export orders from late October to early November, attributed to the implementation of trade agreements between China and the U.S.[19] - The Q4 export growth rate is expected to decline due to a high base from the previous year, alongside the "15th Five-Year Plan" aiming for stable growth policies in November and December[19] Overseas Insights - In October, the U.S. ADP employment numbers exceeded expectations with an increase of 42,000 jobs, while Challenger job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year to 153,074[20] - The liquidity crunch in the U.S. money market is primarily due to the government shutdown, which has forced the Treasury to increase cash balances from $300 billion to $1 trillion, creating a draining effect on the market[20] - The Supreme Court's rapid review of the legality of Trump's tariffs could lead to a ruling by the end of December, potentially accelerating the implementation of Section 232 tariffs[20] Asset Market Analysis - The recent high valuations in the U.S. AI sector have sparked global trader concerns, with historical bubbles linked to industry trends and monetary policy factors[21] - The potential for a market rebound is anticipated around May 2025, coinciding with a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may signal stronger easing measures[21] - Short-term adjustments in U.S. stocks may not be complete, while domestic asset styles are trending towards balance[21]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign companies to explore the Chinese market and reflects their intentions and expectations [1][2] - American companies are increasing their presence in the Chinese market despite trade challenges, with significant participation in the CIIE, showcasing over 50,000 square meters of exhibition space [2] - Companies like Cargill and GE Healthcare are demonstrating their commitment by presenting a wide range of innovative products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new partnerships [2] Group 2 - The American Grain Association emphasizes the CIIE as a bridge for understanding and trust, aiming to explore sustainable grain and energy systems with Chinese partners [2] - The American Soybean Export Association highlights the potential for growth in the Chinese market and expresses a desire to maintain strong relationships and trust with Chinese consumers [2] - Qualcomm and JLL are committed to aligning their technological visions and services with the needs of the Chinese market, indicating a long-term investment strategy in China [3]

Group 1 - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for foreign investment firms to explore opportunities in the Chinese market, with American companies showing strong interest despite trade challenges [1][2] - American exhibitors occupy over 50,000 square meters at the CIIE, maintaining the largest presence for seven consecutive years, indicating a commitment to the Chinese market [1][2] - Major American companies, such as Cargill and GE Healthcare, are significantly increasing their participation, showcasing hundreds of products and aiming for substantial new collaborations, with Cargill targeting over $3 billion in new deals [2] Group 2 - American firms express confidence in the Chinese market's potential, with statements highlighting that even a 1% market share is substantial for their business [1][3] - The CIIE is viewed as a bridge for enhancing understanding and trust between American and Chinese businesses, facilitating discussions on sustainable agricultural practices and innovative product applications [2][3] - Companies like Qualcomm and JLL emphasize their long-term commitment to the Chinese market, aiming to transform exhibition products into commercial opportunities and share in China's development [3]

Core Insights - American companies continue to dominate the exhibition space at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) for seven consecutive years, showcasing both established brands like Honeywell and Qualcomm, as well as newcomers like Kabod [1][3] - The response from American enterprises to the uncertainties in the global economy and trade policies is a clear commitment to remain and deepen their presence in China [1][4] Group 1: American Companies' Commitment - American companies are not just hesitant about their presence in China; they are executing a long-term strategy of "in China, for China" [3][4] - The HuRun Research Institute's report indicates that in the fiscal year 2024, American companies in China generated total revenues of $312.7 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, with about 50% of these companies reporting China as their second-largest global revenue market [3][4] - Many American firms have established advanced R&D centers in China, emphasizing the importance of local talent and supply chains [5][8] Group 2: Strategic Shifts and Collaborations - American companies are shifting their focus from merely exporting products to co-developing standards and innovating collaboratively within China [4][5] - FedEx's "Panda Express" initiative highlights a long-term commitment to the Chinese market, showcasing a unique transportation service that has been operational for over 20 years [3] - The collaboration between Dun & Bradstreet and Shanghai Jiao Tong University aims to enhance decision-making support for companies looking to expand and innovate in China [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The Chinese market is seen as a critical support for American companies to hedge against global uncertainties, with a complete supply chain and R&D collaboration established over decades [4][8] - The ongoing commitment of American firms to the Chinese market is not solely driven by profit but by the recognition of China's potential as a future-oriented market [8]