来源：第一财经 佩斯科夫：美方近期言论与解决俄乌冲突意愿不冲突； 泽连斯基：已准备好在俄乌冲突结束后离任； 【市场动态】 【时政新闻】 商务部回应中美大豆贸易：美方应采取积极行动，取消相关不合理关税； 商务部回应购买波音飞机的谈判进展：当前影响中美正常经贸合作的最大障碍在于美单边限制措施； 商务部：将亨廷顿·英格尔斯工业公司等3家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单； 商务部：将萨罗尼克科技公司等3家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单； 欧盟官员：欧美贸易协议缺乏安全性，敦促美方回归规则体系； 贸发会议报告：2025年海运贸易将经历近年最慢增长； (本文来自第一财经) 美股三大股指期货齐跌，道指期货跌0.11%，标普500指数期货跌0.35%，纳指期货跌0.51%； 欧洲主要股指齐跌，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.69%，德国DAX指数跌1.03%； 【公司新闻】 英特尔盘前涨2%，此前有报道称该公司正寻求获得苹果的投资。 锂业美洲公司（Lithium Americas）美股盘前涨超20%。该股昨日涨近96%，有报道称，美国政府正寻求 获得公司高达10%的股份。 ...

9月25日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。有记者提问称，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢日前 会见了美国中西部地区政商代表团，这是否预示着中国将购买该地区的大豆？ 商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，习近平主席指出，中美关系"活力在地方"。中美省州经贸合作是中美经 贸关系不可或缺的组成部分，也是双方加强经贸往来的重要平台和渠道。关于大豆贸易，美方应采取积 极行动，取消相关不合理关税，为扩大双边贸易创造条件，也为全球经济发展注入更多稳定性、确定 性。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足。阿根廷出口降税至零叠加美豆收获， | | 豆粕 | | 利空美豆及国内豆粕，前日豆粕小幅整理，尚未扭转短线短期颓势，叠加节前基本 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 面偏空，看多观望为宜。由于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。 | | | | 假期关注美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | | 短线延续调整 | | | ★ | | 短期偏弱调整行情依旧，看多谨慎。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延 ...

美国中西部广阔的农田里，金黄色的豆浪随风起伏，这本应是一年中最充满希望的季节，但豆农们脸上却不见笑容。 "美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰坐在他的拖拉机上，通过美国广播公司的直播镜头向特朗普总统发出紧急呼吁。他身后是 一片丰收的大豆田，但这位肯塔基州豆农的眼中只有担忧。 以往此时，美国大豆对华年销量中应有约1/3已完成交易，但今年 。拉格兰直言："中国市场对我们的生计至关重要，我们需要的是立即行动，而不是空谈。" 美国大豆正处于收获季节，但豆农们却面临前所未有的危机。根据美国大豆协会统计，美国产大豆以往有25%销往中国，但 今年新一季大豆开镰后，对华销量却仍为零。 拉格兰在接受《财富》杂志采访时警告：" 。"他指出，在以农业为主的肯塔基州，新一季大豆已经开始收割，但当地豆农尚未收获一笔来自中国的订单。 伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州、明尼苏达州和印第安纳州等美国大豆核心产区所受影响尤为深重。这些州的大豆产量约占全美总产 量的一半，如今却共同面对"零订单"的困境。 美国农业部数据显示，2024年美国对华大豆出口额达128亿美元。但今年，中国这个最大买家却尚未下达任何订单。 关税导致美国大豆价格处于明显劣势。拉格兰指出，由于 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, expressed approval of the RMB to USD exchange rate, noting that the RMB has strengthened against the USD this year, increasing by approximately 3% [1][3] - Bessent highlighted that the RMB is at a historical low against the Euro, which poses a problem for Europe, as the RMB has depreciated about 10% against the Euro [1][3] - Recent data indicates that the RMB to Euro exchange rate has reached a historical low of over 8.4, compared to 7.5 at the beginning of 2025, which may boost China's exports to Europe and increase the EU's trade deficit with China [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government maintains that the RMB exchange rate has remained stable at a reasonable level, with the RMB index against a basket of currencies operating around 100 since 2020, indicating no competitive devaluation [3] - As of September 19, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1128 against the USD and 8.3834 against the Euro [3] - Bessent defended the U.S. tariff policies, claiming that the trade deficit with China may decrease by 30% this year due to these tariffs [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal**: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term outlook is bearish. Soybean meal is affected by the increase in US soybean production and inventory, and rapeseed meal is influenced by trade policies and high inventory [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to consolidate in the short term. Palm oil has positive consumption expectations due to biodiesel policies and purchase demand, while soybean oil faces pressure from the approaching US soybean harvest and high domestic inventory [1]. - **Oscillating with a Bullish Bias**: Rapeseed oil is likely to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the China - Canada trade dispute and dual - festival demand, but limited by the resumption of China - Australia trade [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply is under pressure from the increasing output in the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the short - term bottom of the domestic market is supported by tight supply before new cotton listing and a lower inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - **Cautious Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. There is pressure after the new jujube harvest considering the production forecast and carry - over inventory, but there may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: Live pigs are cautiously bullish. The spot and near - term contracts may have limited further decline, and the price may rise as the peak season approaches and the far - term capacity is reduced [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, 1.5 million tons more than last week. The futures price of the main contract was 3041 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3067.14 yuan/ton, up 6.85 yuan [2][3]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish but the decline space is limited due to approaching the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons. The futures price of the main contract was 2518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2684.21 yuan/ton, up 18.95 yuan [5][7]. - **Outlook**: The short - term is bearish, and its trend mainly follows soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of China - Canada meetings [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract was 9482 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 9508 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental outlook is bullish. The idea is to go long when the price is low, and attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil export situation this month [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.07% to 13895 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.29% to 15300 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract rose 1.24% to 67.67 cents/pound. The national cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period by 46.11 million tons [10][11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Before new cotton listing, it is advisable to conduct range operations and pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for far - month contracts [1]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube fell 0.55% to 10805 yuan/ton. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week, higher than the same period by 4593 tons [14][15]. - **Outlook**: There is pressure after new jujube harvest. In the short term, the concern about quality issues is alleviated, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to sell high during price fluctuations [1]. Live Pig - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pig fell 0.87% to 13160 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.30% to 13340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 19.08 million tons month - on - month, and the出栏量 was 1117.72 million heads, up 26.04 million heads month - on - month [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The spot and near - term contracts have limited further decline space. The price may rise as the peak season approaches and far - term capacity is reduced. It is not recommended to short further for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to going long for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Group 1: US Economic Concerns - The US economy is facing pressures, including slowing domestic demand and job growth, as highlighted by the IMF [2] - The IMF noted that the downward adjustment of US employment data is greater than historical averages, indicating potential economic challenges [2] - Neil Bush criticized the US tariff policy based on the flawed assumption that trade deficits are harmful, suggesting it could lead to greater economic harm and job market deterioration [3][4] Group 2: Employment Market Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, with a reported decrease of 910,000 jobs from initial estimates for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 [3] - Companies are responding to economic uncertainty by halting expansions and cutting costs, which may further exacerbate job market issues [3] Group 3: Chinese Economic Growth - Neil Bush expressed confidence in China's economic growth potential, particularly in the green economy sector, where China is making significant advancements [5] - The Chinese automotive industry reported a total of 15.653 million vehicles sold in the first half of the year, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44.3% of sales [5] - Bush is actively collaborating with a Chinese auto parts company to support investments in Saudi Arabia and potentially enter the European market [5] Group 4: Personal Insights on China - Neil Bush has visited China over 180 times and noted the significant increase in China's internationalization and openness compared to previous years [7] - His early experiences in China, including interactions with local tourists, reflect the evolving perception of China as a vibrant place for tourism and business [6][7]

中方秉持"相互尊重、平等互利"原则。事实证明，贸易限制未达美方预期，反使美对华进口增21%， 90%关税成本由美消费者承担；半导体领域制裁令美企被动。可见合作是共赢正道，美方释放对话信 号，凸显其需借对华合作缓解经济困局。 特朗普团队频繁释放访华信号，折射出美国复杂经济局势与中美关系新动态。美国正面临自2008年金融 危机以来最严峻结构性危机：美联储连续加息引发银行业动荡，硅谷创新企业融资降37%；对华加征关 税致制造业成本升 12.8%，流失17.6万个岗位；农业受中方反制，大豆出口降64%，库存达113年最高， 中西部农场破产数激增 82%；工业界亦受损，通用汽车年增成本29亿美元，产业"脱钩"想法与市场依赖 现实矛盾冲击经济基本面。与之对比，中方有强大经济优势：14亿人口超大规模市场吸引力巨大，2023 年上半年苹果大中华区营收占比42%，波音在华订单占全球待交付量 63%；制造业增加值占全球 31%，32个战略领域握供应链主导权。 ...