Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term and mid - term views are "rising", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight downward bias", and the reference view is "bullish in the long - term". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: The gold price has rebounded recently, approaching the $4050 mark [3]. - **Market Expectation**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut in October, the internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have led to a decline in the market's expected probability of a December rate cut. After the APEC Sino - US summit, tariff relaxation policies were introduced, and the market showed a rebound trend after the positive news was digested. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4000 mark [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. Copper prices have increased significantly in the short - term and are facing historical high - level pressure, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Since late October, as the gold price has weakened, the copper price has been strong, and the gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly [4]. - **Market Expectation**: The Fed's internal policy divergence and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts have cooled the rate - cut expectation, which is negative for copper prices. In the long run, since late September, the expectation of supply contraction has increased, and copper prices have risen significantly with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and stage a phased rebound. In the long run, the long - term upward logic of precious metals remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts within the year, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks suggest that the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices will likely continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 29, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai gold futures dropped 0.55% to 910.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.91% to 11,338 yuan/kilogram. Compared with October 28, the prices of London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all fell 100%, while AU2512 rose 1.1% and AG2512 rose 2.6% [3][4]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The price spreads of gold ID - SHFE active price and silver TD - SHFE active price increased significantly on October 29, 2025, with growth rates of 28013.6% and 80885.7% respectively compared to October 28. The gold and silver ratios of SHFE and COMEX also changed, with the SHFE gold - silver ratio dropping 1.5% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 1.85%, the non - commercial short positions increased 9.43%, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 0.13%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.97%, the non - commercial short positions decreased 0.21%, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.43%. The gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased 0.86% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On October 29, 2025, compared with October 28, the SHFE gold inventory increased 0.92%, the SHFE silver inventory decreased 0.55%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.60%, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.91% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Indices - **Related Indicators**: On October 29, 2025, compared with October 28, the US dollar index dropped 0.02%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield dropped 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 0.50%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate dropped 0.10%, the VIX rose 3.99%, the S&P 500 rose 0.23%, and NYMEX crude oil dropped 2.23% [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, short - term is expected to decline, medium - term to oscillate, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, along with strong profit - taking intention of funds [1][3] - For copper, short - term and medium - term are expected to rise, and the reference view is to be strong in the long - run because of macro - economic easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - **Short - term**: Expected to decline, with the short - term strong pattern broken as the price fell below the 10 - day moving average [1][3] - **Medium - term**: Expected to oscillate [1][3] - **Core Logic**: The decline is due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, and strong profit - taking intention after a large increase since September. The price has fallen below $4000 and $3900. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Copper - **Short - term and Medium - term**: Expected to rise [1][4] - **Core Logic**: The price dropped yesterday following the weakening of the macro - environment and the sharp decline of gold price, but rebounded quickly at night. The gold - copper ratio has dropped significantly. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11000 level of LME copper [4]

Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed Markets also up by 1.9%, and MSCI Emerging Markets rising by 2.2% [4][8] - Among developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 5.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.3% [8] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with an increase of 8.0%, while the Mexican MXX Index was the worst performer, declining by 1.0% [8] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume decreased across global markets, with the VIX index showing a rapid decline [19] - In terms of investor sentiment, the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks decreased to 15.8%, indicating a historical low sentiment level, while the North American sentiment index rose to 90.4%, reflecting a high sentiment level [19][26] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the US tech sector were revised upward during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted from 268 to 269 [63] - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 increased from 2059 to 2061 [63] - In contrast, the European market's earnings expectations remained flat, with the STOXX50 Index's EPS forecast for 2025 unchanged at 332 [64] Economic Outlook - Major market economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising [4][63] - The rise in these indices was attributed to factors such as the potential end of the US government shutdown, easing inflation expectations, and improved US-China negotiations [4] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations confirmed by recent economic data [46][50] - In terms of liquidity, there was a notable inflow of funds into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a total inflow of 210 billion USD into these markets in September [55][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is also a decline. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with strong profit - taking intention of funds due to large price increases since September [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it is expected to rise; in the medium - term, it will also rise; and the intraday view is a rise. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long - run. The core logic is the macro - economic loosening, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: Last week, the gold price first dropped by over 7% from the high and then rebounded. On Monday this week, the New York gold price once fell below $4000. The short - term strong pattern has been broken as it fell below the 10 - day moving average [3]. - Driving Factors: The decline is due to the expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and strong profit - taking intention of funds after large price increases since September. Attention should be paid to the APEC meeting and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [3]. Copper - Price Performance: After the Fourth Plenary Session last week, the macro - environment improved. Copper prices increased with rising positions on Thursday and Friday. After the Sino - US trade consultation over the weekend, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Since September 24th, copper prices have shown an upward trend after the news of mine - end contraction, and capital attention has increased rapidly [4]. - Driving Factors: The macro - environment at home and abroad has continued to improve, and the industrial supply has shrunk. Although the high inventory of overseas COMEX exerts pressure on copper prices, the overall macro - economic loosening, improved risk appetite, and supply contraction provide upward momentum for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, reaching a new high for the year, while the ChiNext Index increased by nearly 2% [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.98% [2] Stock Performance - A total of 3361 stocks rose, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 1862 stocks declined [3][4] - The storage chip sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation and Demingli hitting the daily limit and reaching new highs [4] - The concept stocks related to controllable nuclear fusion were actively traded, with Dongfang Tantalum and Antai Technology seeing significant gains [5][6] Asian Market Trends - In Asia, both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets surged over 2%, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing the 50000-point psychological barrier and the Seoul index breaking through 4000 points for the first time, marking a nearly 70% increase year-to-date [8][9] Factors Influencing Market Surge - The market's rise was attributed to several factors, including positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, where preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [11] - The increase in the Nikkei index was also supported by a high approval rating for the Japanese cabinet, which is seen as beneficial for government stability and market sentiment [12] - Additionally, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve were heightened following the lower-than-expected increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) [13]

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月22日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银价格大跌,连续多日巨幅波动。近日中美贸易出现一定缓和信号,俄乌和美国停摆问题处于博弈关 键时期，风险情绪摇摆。短期贵金属严重超买正在修复,回调后可能构筑高位震荡平台,建议暂时观望等待 企稳后买入机会。 ★特朗普在上周与普京通话后,宣布两国元首近期将在匈牙利首都布达佩斯会晤。但特朗普21日称,他与俄 罗斯总统普京原定的会面计划被搁置，因为他不想"浪费"这次会面。特朗普还表示，有关会晤的决定将在 未来几天做出。 另据一名白宫官员透露，特朗普将于22日与北约秘书长吕特举行会谈。这名官员没有提供会 谈议程的任何细节。据美联社报道，特朗普推迟布达佩斯会晤 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report's Core Views - **Gold**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the reference view is to hold off on trading. The core logic is the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, along with strong profit - taking intentions from long - position holders due to the large cumulative gains since September [1][3]. - **Copper**: The short - term and medium - term views are upward, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long - run. The core logic is that copper prices are currently running strongly. Macro - economic easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: The gold market has experienced a volatile "roller - coaster" market, with an intraday amplitude of over 3%. Yesterday, the price of New York gold fell below the $4200 mark, with an intraday decline of over 5% [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Short - term price drops are due to the expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Sino - US trade easing, and strong profit - taking intentions from long - position holders after large cumulative gains since September. Regulatory agencies have issued risk warnings, and the short - term strong pattern has been broken as the price falls below the 10 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices have been running strongly recently. Last night, they were affected by the sharp decline in gold prices but showed resilience [4]. - **Driving Factors**: Market risk appetite has recovered, which is beneficial for copper prices. Macro - economic easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices, and attention should be paid to the pressure at previous high levels [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the driving factors behind the recent recovery in the equity market, emphasizing that attributing the market's rise to a single perspective is insufficient. It highlights the importance of economic fundamentals, liquidity, and risk appetite as contributing factors [1][2][3] - The article notes that from September last year to May this year, economic fundamentals were highly effective, with the recovery of profit expectations under a stable growth policy serving as the basis for market pricing recovery [2][3] - It identifies two periods of divergence between economic indicators and market performance: from Q2 to Q4 of 2021 and from June to August of this year, both characterized by ample liquidity but insufficient credit expansion due to local investment shortfalls [2][3] Group 2 - The article mentions that in the second week of August, the speed of asset rotation decreased, with a "risk on" sentiment dominating the stock and currency markets. The domestic ChiNext index led the gains, while global markets also showed positive trends [4][5] - It highlights that the rotation index for major assets has slowed down since mid-June, indicating a certain degree of persistence in strong assets and a return to a more focused trading approach [4][5] - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes, noting that the A-share market exhibited a pattern of rising prices, expanding volume, and low volatility, while the concentration of winning sectors increased [4][5][6] Group 3 - The article outlines the impact of U.S. economic data on market expectations, particularly the mixed signals from CPI and PPI, which influenced the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's performance [7][8] - It notes that the U.S. retail sales data showed resilience despite a slowdown compared to last year, with specific categories like furniture and clothing performing well [14] - The article also discusses the implications of the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where the Fed's stance on monetary policy will be closely watched [11][12][13] Group 4 - The article highlights the recent adjustments in China's monetary policy, emphasizing a focus on stabilizing prices and supporting credit flow to the real economy [19][20] - It mentions the seasonal contraction of narrow liquidity due to tax payment periods, with the central bank's report indicating a positive outlook for price levels [18][19] - The article discusses the increase in project funding and the improvement in the funding rate for construction projects, indicating a potential recovery in infrastructure investment [21] Group 5 - The article details a new policy in China providing a 1% interest subsidy for personal consumption loans, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending [22][23] - It estimates that this policy could boost retail sales by approximately 0.2-0.3 percentage points, reflecting the government's efforts to enhance consumer demand [22][23] - The article also discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, noting fluctuations in various sectors, including energy and industrial products [25][26]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold remains in narrow fluctuations during the Asian session despite previous rebounds [1] - Silver has seen a two-day increase, surpassing $38 and continuing to rise, while risk appetite is supported by easing US-China trade tensions and US-Russia negotiations regarding Ukraine [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical closing highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 43,000-point mark, indicating a strong performance in risk assets that may diminish the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose from 2.9% in June to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The CPI and core CPI recorded month-on-month growth of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, aligning with market forecasts, which alleviated concerns about rising trade costs leading to widespread inflation [2] - Market participants are pricing in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, influenced by the recent economic data [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Spot gold is currently in a bearish consolidation phase, with significant resistance at the $3358 - $3360 range, and a potential upward movement towards $3380 and $3400 if this resistance is broken [4] - For silver, a rebound from the 200-hour simple moving average indicates a potential bullish opportunity, with targets set at $38.70, $39.00, and possibly $39.50, which is the highest level since February 2012 [5] - If silver fails to maintain above $38.00 and drops below $37.85, it may face increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a decline towards $37.00 and testing lower support levels [5]