中国银河证券表示，A股市场在临近年末关口震荡上行，呈现出"小躁动"行情，截至周五，上证指数录 得八连阳。同时，行情呈现出流动性驱动特征，市场量能明显放大，周五全A成交额突破2万亿元。短 期来看，市场结构特征有望延续，量能或是行情的关键信号。热点板块个股分歧有所加大，重点关注核 心标的。美元指数趋弱与年末结汇需求推动下，人民币汇率在周内升破7.0关口。人民币资产吸引力提 升，积极因素正在进一步积累。展望后市，关注政策预期与产业趋势的催化机会，春季躁动行情值得期 待。2026年来看，A股市场有望呈现出向上动能。 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略周报 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《美国降息周期中的"第四种"交易模式——策略 专题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-08-14 《美元寻锚之路：去杠杆，减敞口，再平衡*胡国 鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-06-22 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、美国货币政策展望；2、日本货币政 策展望；3、海外流动性变化对美元资产、人民币资产和港股的影响。 核心结论: 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 | 1、 | 美国货币政策展望 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1、 | 美国就业和通胀现状与展望 4 | | | 1.2、 | 美国 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 美联储在政策声明中称，美国经济活动在温和扩张，但新增就业放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀依然在 一定程度上处于高位，经济前景仍面临较高不确定性。与此同时，美联储表示将根据需要启动短期美国 国债购买操作。 值得注意的是，此次降息25个基点，美联储12名票委中有9人投票赞成、3人投票反对。芝加哥联储主席 古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德认为没有理由降息，而美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰赞成更大幅度的降 息50个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后讲话中表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的双 重使命为指引，后续将视情况再采取进一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。他将通胀归咎于关税影响，认 为通胀仍处于较高水平，如果抛开关税因素，通胀率在2%左右偏低水平。 财通证券分析师孙彬彬认为，鲍威尔的发言整体未见超乎寻常的鹰派表述，反而是强调了当前绝不存在 加息的可能，预计后续美联储的决策依旧是数据依赖的，只要就业市场恶化情况没有显著缓解，降息趋 势会延续。 最新发布的点阵图预测显示，多数美联储官员预计在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。美联储 的中 ...

"哎，今天美元又换多少人民币？我朋友说要换点美金给孩子交学费，结果拖了几天，汇率又变了！"这话最近在不少家长、海淘族甚至做外贸的小老板嘴里 都能听到。确实，年底这会儿，人民币兑美元的汇率就像天气一样，看着平静，其实暗流涌动。12月9日这天，一美元兑人民币中间价是7.0764，波动不 大，但背后的故事可不少。 普通人该怎么应对？ 如果你只是偶尔换点美元旅游、留学，其实不用太纠结这几天的波动。7.07和7.05，差不了几百块，真没必要天天盯盘。但如果你手头有大额外汇需求，比 如几十万美金的货款，那可以分批操作，别一次性全换了。另外，与其赌汇率，不如把精力放在主业上——毕竟，赚美元的能力，比省那点汇差重要得多。 外资为啥又开始买人民币资产？ 你可能不知道，11月境外机构一口气买了800多亿的人民币债券，北向资金也连续流入。这不是瞎投，而是人家看中了咱们经济的底子。制造业PMI重回扩 张区间，说明工厂又忙起来了；出口增长超预期，说明东西还是卖得动。这些实实在在的数据，比啥口号都有说服力。说白了，钱往哪儿跑，就说明哪儿有 希望。 别看现在汇率稳，但眼睛还得盯着大洋彼岸。12月12号，老美要公布CPI数据，这直接关系到他 ...

Market Overview - The pre-market performance of global markets was poor, with Bitcoin dropping below $88,000, down nearly 4%, and Ethereum falling over 5% to below $2,900 [1] - The KOSPI index in South Korea erased a 1.3% gain and turned negative, while the Nikkei 225 index fell 1% to 49,750.83 points, and Nasdaq futures also declined [1] - The decline was attributed to expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with the central bank's governor indicating a hawkish stance [1] Company News - Huawei's AI toy "Smart Hanhai" sold out on its launch day at a price of 399 yuan, indicating strong consumer interest [3] - The Quark AI glasses, launched by Alibaba, have seen sales of 8,000 units, priced at 4,699 yuan, showcasing the demand for AI-integrated consumer electronics [3] - A surge in stock prices was observed in the AI and consumer electronics sectors, with companies like ZTE, Meige Intelligent, and Futong Technology hitting their daily price limits [3] Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.31%, with total market turnover reaching 1.88 trillion yuan [10] - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed 7.07, with expectations that it could strengthen further if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [8] Industry Highlights - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved a single-day box office of over 700 million yuan, surpassing "Avengers: Endgame" to become the highest single-day box office for an imported film in China [11] - The AI and electronic sectors showed significant growth, with various indices reflecting strong performance in these areas [12]

责任编辑：郭栩彤 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

中美之间的一通电话，给全球资本市场带来了显著波动，美元兑离岸人民币汇率瞬间突破了近一年来的最高点。如果这种趋势持续下去，人民币汇率是否可 能在春节前回到6的区间呢？在中美通话后，特朗普还专门与日本首相高市早苗进行了电话沟通。那么，这通电话具体谈了什么呢？ 根据外交部的最新消息，这次中美领导人的通话是由美国方面发起的。双方在通话中交换了意见，讨论了中日矛盾以及俄乌战争等问题。 特朗普主动联系中国，意在了解中国的底线和要求，担心在中日矛盾中，中国可能采取一些美国难以承受的行动，导致战略误判，进而影响美国在亚太地区 的重要地位。目前，特朗普政府仍在处理俄乌战争的残局，以色列战争也尚未完全平息，因此缺乏精力专注于日本。有分析认为，这次中美通话，可能也与 中国在台湾统一方面的布局有关。 自2016年南海危机以来，中国已经向世界证明其海军实力不惧美国。经过近十年的发展，中国军力实现了质的飞跃。在此次针对日本的挑衅言论中，中国的 回应非常强烈，特别是强调中国作为战胜国有责任维护二战后的国际秩序。此外，中国与美国的通话也可以视作一种最后通牒，告知美国如果无法管控日 本，中国将亲自采取行动。这一事件对资本市场产生了巨大影响，全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, maintaining a tactical overweight stance on A/H shares [1] - Global risk appetite has significantly declined, leading to increased asset volatility and panic selling, which has released substantial micro trading risks [1] - The importance of economic growth at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan is highlighted, with an approaching policy window expected to establish new market expectations [1] Group 2 - The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market in the short term [1] - Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have been alleviated, with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets [1] - The Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant development, with considerable upside potential remaining [1] - Chinese equities offer a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]

Economic Outlook - The goal for GDP per capita by 2035 is set at $29,000, necessitating a shift in China's economic logic from solely pursuing GDP growth to a new paradigm focusing on productivity enhancement, moderate inflation, and currency appreciation[1] - The new growth paradigm emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP growth and inflation levels, which directly impacts corporate profitability and capital returns[1] Market Dynamics - The equity market is positioned for a systematic revaluation, supported by three main factors: profit foundation, valuation environment, and relative returns[1] - The expectation of RMB appreciation is a significant driver for valuation improvements, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets and drawing global capital to Chinese assets[2] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a notable shift in asset preference from real estate and bonds to equities, driven by the changing yield characteristics of various asset classes in a moderate inflation environment[2] - Bonds, while still a stabilizing component, are expected to see diminishing capital gains potential, while real estate is facing downward pressure due to income and price expectations[2] Consumption and Production Insights - Recent data indicates a recovery in consumption, with metro passenger flow increasing by 5.9% year-on-year and logistics delivery volume rising by 5.8%[12] - Production shows structural improvement, particularly in real estate-related sectors, with a narrowing decline in rebar production and a continued decrease in inventory levels[14] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput has decreased to 266 million tons, reflecting a structural adjustment in external demand, while the export container freight index has risen to 1094.03 points[25] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Japan, have introduced new uncertainties into the external trade environment, impacting market sentiment[25] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The broad deficit for the week ending November 23 reached 204.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 11.2 trillion, indicating a slower pace compared to the previous year[35] - The monetary market remains in a loose state, with indicators suggesting continued low interest rates and a high willingness to leverage in the bond market[44]