策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 大暑已至，心平气和 国内：6 月财政一本账偏弱，土地成交回暖带动二本账回升 1）6 月财政收支小幅回落，土地成交回暖。6 月财政收入累计同比持平， 当月同比回落转负，税收收入同比回升，非税收入同比继续回落，财政支出 同比回落。6 月全国政府性基金收入同比大幅回正，土地成交回暖，全国政 府性基金支出同比回升。2）交运高频指标方面，地铁客运量指数回落。 3）工业生产腾落指数回落，甲醇、山东地炼回升，唐山高炉持平，纯碱、 涤纶长丝、轮胎回落。4）国内政策跟踪：国务院新闻办就海南自由贸易港 建设有关情况举行发布会；第二十五次中国－欧盟领导人会晤；《中华人民 共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。 国际：俄乌、以哈均进行停火谈判 1）俄乌冲突跟踪：第三轮俄乌谈判在土耳其举行；俄外交部发表声明对欧 盟制裁采取反制措施。2）中东冲突跟踪：以色列称停火谈判未破裂；哈马 斯官员称准备恢复停火谈判；马克龙宣布将承认巴勒斯坦国后，美以表示强 烈反对。3） 特朗普视察美联储总部，再次希望鲍威尔降息，他将观察委员 会如何制定利率规则。特朗普称没有必要解雇鲍威尔，但降低 ...

Domestic Economic Analysis - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding expectations of 5.17% and previous value of 5.4%. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showed growth rates of 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% respectively [1][9][10] - In June, industrial production increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.66% and previous value of 5.8%. However, social consumption and investment showed declines [11][14] - Exports in June grew by 5.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous 4.7% and expectations of 3.21%. Imports also increased by 1.1%, reversing a previous decline [43][44] - The social financing scale increased by 4.20 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. New RMB loans turned positive, indicating a recovery in credit conditions [55][56] International Economic Context - The core CPI growth in the US for June was lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the expected 3.0% [2][66] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to impact global economic conditions, with potential implications for international trade and investment strategies [2][66][67] Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. The performance of undervalued dividends is closely tied to the progress in the AI sector [3][5] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with a potential recovery supported by declining interest rates and policy catalysts. The report warns against overly pessimistic views on consumer recovery [3][5]

Market Insights - The market index experienced a breakthrough rise this week, but there was a style switch, with mid-cap indices performing the strongest while the Shanghai 50 lagged behind [1][11] - Leading sectors included real estate, steel, non-bank financials, and construction materials, which are characterized as "cold" industries [1][11] - Historical analysis from 2014H2 and 2006H2 indicates that after the Shanghai index reaches new highs, new account openings tend to rebound, suggesting a potential style switch [1][12][19] Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) returned to positive year-on-year growth at 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a wider decline at -3.6% [3][24] - Manufacturing activity showed signs of recovery with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7, although it remains in the contraction zone [3][34] - The supply side continued to improve, with new orders and production indices both showing marginal increases [3][34] International Economic Indicators - In June, the U.S. non-farm employment exceeded expectations, with an increase of 147,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [4][50] - The labor market showed strong demand, with job openings rising to 7.77 million, indicating a robust employment landscape [4][52] Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [5] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of monitoring the AI industry trends and their impact on consumer sectors [5]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 上证攻坚新高后，怎么看？ 市场思考：如何看待指数后续节奏？ 1）由于整体市场的显著放量，上周小盘拥挤度出现明显下行。指标从 65% 下行至 62.4%，目前的幅度已经与 25 年 4 月比较接近，1 月幅度则更大。 2）前两次后续市场出现调整的背景是市场处于成交额减量+小盘拥挤度上 行，表现在市场出现调整之前先出现了缩圈至小盘的现象，而上周以前，市 场存量稳定。这一轮从 4 月初挖坑以后开始上行，但期间成交额（MA20） 均处于 1.2 万亿左右的相对低位，在修复过程中并没有出现过热的情况。另 外，本轮从 4 月初至今的行情并没有过热，融资余额增幅较小。 3）复盘 2014 年，14 年上半年小盘持续跑赢大盘，像沪深 300 这类的大盘 指数的收盘价在 14 年的 3-6 月份创 2013 年以来的新低，小盘表现更强的 这个特征和现在相似。到了 14 年下半年，在 14 年 7 月-8 月上旬和 14 年 11 月-12 月也出现了【小盘拥挤度下行】+【成交额上行】这个组合，全 A 指数上行新高。另外，期间在 14 年 8 月下旬-10 月又回到了小盘风 ...

Market Insights - The recent macroeconomic and high-frequency data indicate a mixed performance, with the economic activity index showing fluctuations after a recovery in May, remaining above "1" but below the levels of 2020-2024 [1][10] - The real estate market has shown a lackluster performance, with transaction volumes in major cities underperforming compared to the same period in previous years [1][13] - The automotive sector is experiencing a steady recovery, benefiting from new policies, with retail and wholesale sales showing significant year-on-year increases of 23% and 38% respectively [1][16] Domestic Economic Data - In May, industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% [2][33] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the forecast of 4.85% [2][41] - Fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with tax revenue remaining positive but non-tax revenue turning negative, indicating a weakening in land transactions [2][58] International Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2025, reflecting expectations of slower economic growth and rising unemployment [3][41] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the resurgence of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the AI industry's progress, as it significantly influences the performance of undervalued dividend stocks [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis of Trade Friction - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019, categorizing it into seven phases based on eight major events, highlighting the volatility in the market during these periods [1][9][12] - During the phase from May 29, 2018, to November 30, 2018, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 17% [9][13] - Following a series of negotiations and agreements, the market rebounded significantly from December 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.94% [9][13] Group 2: Domestic Industrial Production - The industrial production index has shown signs of recovery, with specific sectors such as methanol, high furnace production in Tangshan, polyester filament, and soda ash experiencing growth, while Shandong's independent refineries and tire production have declined [17][19] - The subway passenger volume in major cities has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in urban mobility [17][18] Group 3: International Employment Trends - In May, the US non-farm employment figures showed a decline but were still above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 126,000 [29][30] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while wage growth exceeded predictions with an average hourly wage increase of 0.4% [29][30] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with potential for recovery driven by declining interest rates and policy support [4]

Group 1 - The A-shares market showed a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.22% as of midday trading [1] - The total market turnover reached 742.5 billion yuan, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) experienced a fluctuating performance, closing up 0.63% at midday, with a turnover rate exceeding 12% and a trading volume of over 1.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF (159351) has seen a net inflow of funds for 4 out of the last 5 trading days, accumulating 268 million yuan [1] - The latest circulating share of the A500 Index ETF is 15.353 billion shares, with a total market size of 14.714 billion yuan [1] - The A500 Index closely tracks the new benchmark index, the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks representing strong market capitalization across various industries [1] Group 3 - The CSI A500 Index is set to undergo its second rebalancing since its launch, with 21 stocks being removed and 21 new stocks being added, effective after the market closes on June 13 [2] - Financial strategies suggest a return to traditional core assets, with expectations of market recovery driven by improved economic sentiment and valuation adjustments [2] - Investment directions are identified as technology AI breakthroughs, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [2]

Group 1: A-Share Companies and Hong Kong Secondary Listings - A-share companies are increasingly listing in Hong Kong, with 5 companies already listed in 2025 and an expected total of 27 by year-end[34] - The financing scale for A-share companies in Hong Kong has surpassed the entire amount for 2024, indicating a recovery trend[28] - The recent performance of listed A-share companies in Hong Kong shows a median return of 2.76% over 5 days and 5.10% over 10 days, outperforming the overall A-share index[34] Group 2: Market Trends and Financing Conditions - The IPO financing scale in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped to $8.7 billion in 2024 from $48.8 billion in 2023, indicating a significant contraction[10] - In contrast, Hong Kong's IPO financing showed signs of recovery, with a total of 190 financing cases in 2025, surpassing the previous year's total[28] - The A-share market has seen a total of 116 IPOs in 2025, achieving 39% of the total for 2024, with a financing scale of 201.42 billion yuan[18] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - Hong Kong's regulatory environment is improving, with faster approval processes for A-share companies and a new "Tech Company Fast Track" initiative set to launch in May 2025[32] - The recent trend shows 4 A-H companies experiencing price inversion, where H-shares are priced higher than A-shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[36] - The overall financing environment in Hong Kong is expected to improve further due to ongoing regulatory optimizations and increased demand for quality listings[32]

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 宽信用与弱预期的裂口 市场思考： 如何理解近期 M2 与社融的强势表现？ 1）M2 与社融是一体两面。近期 M2、社融增速均出现回升向好态势，然而 后续仍然需要进一步观察。其一是社融的增长依赖政府债，信贷表现不佳， 其二 M2 在 4 月的上行一定程度也有低基数的影响——2024 年上半年对金 融总量数据产生"挤水分"，M2 加速下行。2）从 2015 年以来，社融与 M2 的节奏表现整体是一致的，但每一轮的表征不同。在几轮周期中，M2 底部回升幅度更加明显，但顶部方面，15-21 年期间，M2 顶部往往是领先 于社融，表明社融的上升持续性更强。而 2022 年的 M2 回升却强于社融， 期间政府债券在同期明显上行。我们认为，居民中长贷反映出的地产周期的 作用非常关键。3）因此，M2 的持续回升是社融回升的基础。展望未来， 一方面基数压力仍然不大，去年 9 月份开始 M2 增速才开始探底回升，另一 方面，宽货币基调强化。24Q4 货政报告指出" 注重盘活存量金融资源 "、 " 防范资金沉淀空转 "，而在 25Q1 报告中则是" 灵活把握政策实施的力度 和 ...

Group 1 - A-shares showed a majority increase in the early trading session on April 30, with the A500 Index ETF (159351) rising by 0.21% and a total transaction volume of 728 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - The A500 Index ETF closely tracks the new benchmark index, the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks with strong market capitalization representation across various industries, balancing large-cap stocks while covering core leading assets in A-shares [1] - The A500 Index ETF has a greater weight in sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and computers, showcasing a strong growth attribute and achieving a dual drive of "core assets" and "new productive forces" [1] Group 2 - Yingda Securities anticipates that A-shares will likely achieve a converging volatility and upward market trend by 2025, highlighting three areas for investment opportunities: high dividend low valuation blue-chip stocks, white horse stocks in the consumer sector, and hard-tech companies with core competitiveness [2] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes three investment directions in response to increased volatility: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends, linking the progress of the AI industry to the performance of consumer sectors [2]