繁荣篇 从街头小店到资本市场的宠儿，量贩零食以"平价优质"的革命性模式，深刻改变了中国休闲食品行业的 零售生态。 2月11日，中国证监会发布《关于湖南鸣鸣很忙商业连锁股份有限公司境外发行上市及境内未上市股 份"全流通"备案通知书》，这意味着，中国最大零食饮料连锁零售商，鸣鸣很忙赴港IPO获证监会备 案。该公司拟发行不超过76666400股境外上市普通股并在香港联合交易所上市，25名股东拟将所持合计 198079551股境内未上市股份转为境外上市股份，并在香港联合交易所上市流通。据悉，2025年4月28 日，鸣鸣很忙首次向港交所主板递交上市申请，2025年10月28日，公司更新上市申请材料，继续推进上 市进程。 行业蝶变 量贩零食的崛起与革新 | | [編纂]項下的[編纂]數目 : [編纂]股H股(視乎[編纂]獲行使與否而 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 定) | | [编纂]數目 | : | [編纂]股H股(可予重新分配) | | [编纂]數目 | : | [編纂]股H股(可予重新分配及視乎[編 | | | | 纂]獲行使與否而定) | | 最高[編纂] | : | 每股H股[編纂 ...

2025年，中国调味品行业正式迈入以健康化、功能化与复合化为核心的"价值升级"新阶段。竞争焦点从规模扩张转向质量与结构优化，对企业 的研发能力、场景洞察与渠道效率提出了更高要求。 在此背景下，天味食品作为复合调味品龙头，其年度业绩呈现明显的"先抑后扬"轨迹。公司于第一季度主动进行渠道库存出清与调整，短期业 绩承压；至第三季度，凭借战略有效落地，实现营收与利润的强势反弹，展现出较强的周期应对与修复能力。 产品矩阵：创新与迭代双驱动 产品是穿越周期的根本。天味食品通过"大单品迭代+场景化创新"的双轮驱动策略，不仅巩固了基本盘，更持续开拓新增长点。 在火锅底料这一核心赛道，公司于Q3推出了"厚火锅系列"品质升级产品，通过优化原料配比与工艺，强化"醇厚"口感体验，直击消费者对高 品质火锅的需求。该系列成功引爆市场，带动火锅调料单季营收达3.79亿元，同比大幅增长25%。同时，公司敏锐捕捉到"一人食"与外卖场景 的兴起，推出小规格、多口味组合装，降低了消费门槛，成功抢占年轻消费群体与碎片化消费场景。 在菜谱式中式菜品调料板块，公司前三季度营收稳健增长5.26%，达到13.39亿元。公司大力推行的"健康化"创新成效显著， ...

奶皮子糖葫芦的火爆并非偶然，赢得市场的主要原因在于对传统民俗元素的创新重构，以及对年轻消费 群体需求的精准捕捉。糖葫芦是我国具有代表性的传统街头小吃，承载着一代又一代中国人的童年记 忆。奶皮子则是内蒙古等地的经典奶制品，凸显民族饮食魅力。再加入符合健康理念的高蛋白、低脂肪 的酸奶，"传统小吃+民族产品+健康元素"，精准契合年轻人消费诉求。 热潮之下，相关企业也需保持理性、坚守初心。行业专家表示，行业需加快建立传统特色食品的工艺标 准与品质认证体系，推动小批量手工制作与适度规模化生产有机结合，筑牢产品品质根基。品牌方更要 珍惜市场热度，以匠心打磨产品，以诚意推进创新，以规范维护口碑，让爆款产品经得起市场与时间的 检验。 网络传播赋能是奶皮子糖葫芦走红的另一个原因。在社交媒体上，消费者主动分享家庭自制配方与创新 吃法，让这款小吃成为传递生活乐趣的载体。当年轻人背着具有地方特色的帆布包，手握奶皮子糖葫芦 在古街古巷打卡留影，品尝小吃已经成为可分享的生活情绪、有温度的文化体验。 我国休闲食品行业正经历一场深刻变革。相关调研报告显示，行业已从过去的粗放增长转向健康化、功 能化的"精耕细作"，消费需求从"量大实惠"转向" ...

消息面上，消费股年末补涨。据相关媒体报道，在科技股集体到达短期高位后，此前缺席的消费板块也 迎来补涨行情。在一系列旨在扩大内需、提振消费的政策举措陆续出台后，过去一周，消费、零售股迎 来了久违的反弹。 假期催化+冰雪经济：旅游ETF（562510） 提振内需+低估赛道：食品饮料ETF（515170） 电商龙头+新消费：港股消费ETF（513230） 开源证券指出，当前消费行业正迎来政策密集支持的战略机遇期，而食品饮料行业作为必选消费核心赛 道，有望直接受益于内需提振战略。行业、健康化、品质化成为核心趋势，叠加成本端压力缓解，头部 企业盈利韧性凸显。当前消费行业已呈现底部特征，政策红利释放与基本面修复形成共振，当前具备配 置价值。消费筑底政策共振，白酒或至底部重视布局。 东兴证券指出，2025年新消费投资情绪经历了从狂热到谨慎的过程。2026年政策的持续加码有望提振消 费信心，对于新消费领域的投资将从纯粹的短期叙事回归商业模式与盈利壁垒，投资者会倾向寻找那些 真正能够构建稳固的商业模式，盈利模式可持续的公司。该行认为新消费行业会向三个趋势和两个维度 的方向发展。三个趋势是健康化、新实用主义和情绪消费，两个维度是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].

明日主题前瞻 1、乳业 | 据商务部网站消息，经过一年多审慎调查，初步证据显示，欧盟通过共同农业政策等补贴计划向乳及乳制品产业等涉农领域提供了大量补贴。调 查期内，中国国内产业受进口欧盟补贴产品影响，生产经营出现困难。调查机关初步认为，欧盟相关乳制品产品存在补贴，中国国内产业受到实质损害，且 两者之间的因果关系成立。据此，商务部于2025年12月22日发布初裁公告，裁定欧盟公司的从价补贴率为21.9%-42.7%，并决定实施临时反补贴措施。 点评：中证报指出，中国乳制品产业正从"量增"向"质变"转型，未来将保持稳健增长，健康化、功能化、数字化成为核心驱动力，低温鲜奶、功能性乳品和 奶酪等细分赛道将引领行业新增长。2025年市场规模预计达7092亿元，2030年市场规模将突破1.2万亿元，主要受益于消费升级、健康意识提升及政策支 持。 2、电网设备 | 据美国太平洋天然气和电力公司网站消息,加利福尼亚州旧金山市20日发生大规模停电事故,影响约13万家庭和商户,约占该公司在该市客户总数 的三分之一。目前大部分区域停电原因暂不明确。据旧金山消防局消息,太平洋天然气和电力公司位于该市的一处变电站内部当天下午发生火灾, ...

Market Overview - The Chinese condiment market is expected to grow steadily, reaching a scale of 699.8 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, significantly higher than the global average [7][8]. - The market size increased from 408.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 498.1 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong consumer potential and growth driven by consumption upgrades, restaurant recovery, and product innovation [7][8]. Category Trends - Basic condiments are experiencing steady growth, while compound condiments are seeing explosive growth with a CAGR of 10.2%, contributing 62% to the industry's incremental growth [9][10]. - The demand for compound condiments is driven by trends in industrialized dining and the development of pre-prepared dishes, with solid packaging becoming the dominant form [9][10]. Trend Insights - The consumption scenarios for condiments in China include dining, home cooking, and food processing, with the dining sector having the highest demand [11][12]. - Online purchasing channels are rapidly growing, with nearly half of consumers using platforms like Meituan for convenience, alongside traditional supermarkets and markets [11][12][13]. - The online channel accounts for 28% of the market, with instant retail and live e-commerce emerging as key growth drivers, particularly with a growth rate exceeding 40% for instant retail [13][14]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers prioritize taste and health when selecting condiments, showing a preference for independent small packaging to reduce waste [18][19]. - The average cooking frequency is 3.68 times per week, with families living with children cooking more frequently, indicating that household structure significantly influences cooking habits [16][17]. Regional Specialty Seasonings - The market is witnessing a shift towards the nationalization of regional flavors, with products like Guizhou sour soup and Thai tom yum experiencing explosive growth through online channels [69][70]. - Brands that successfully integrate local culinary culture into recognizable products and experiences are likely to gain a competitive edge in the diversified market [69][71].

Market Overview - The Chinese condiment market is projected to grow from CNY 408.1 billion in 2019 to CNY 498.1 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach CNY 699.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.0%[13] - This growth rate is significantly higher than the global average and ranks second among major economies, only behind Southeast Asia and Latin America[13] - The market expansion is driven by consumption upgrades, restaurant recovery, and product innovation, with health and premiumization trends expected to further boost the industry[13] Category Trends - Basic condiments are experiencing steady growth, while compound condiments are seeing explosive growth with a CAGR of 10.2%, contributing 62% of the industry's incremental growth[17] - The average per capita consumption of condiments in the restaurant sector is higher, indicating a strong demand from this segment[20] - Online channels are rapidly growing, with instant retail showing over 40% growth, while offline channels still dominate with a 72% market share[25] Consumer Insights - 90% of consumers cook at least once a week, with those living with children cooking more frequently (4.1 times per week)[29] - Consumers prioritize taste and health when selecting condiments, with a strong preference for smaller, independent packaging to reduce waste[32] - 52% of consumers value the cultural heritage in their food choices, indicating a shift towards experience-based consumption[130]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from traditional models to new consumer-driven approaches, focusing on value, experience, and connection [2] Group 1: Value Restructuring - The evolution of liquor consumption in China reflects changes in the national economy and social psychology, transitioning through three main stages: 1.0 (basic sustenance), 2.0 (social currency), and currently 3.0/4.0 (quality and self-enjoyment) [2][3][4] - The current phase emphasizes personal experience and health consciousness, with a significant young population (approximately 400 million aged 14-35, accounting for 28.35% of the total) driving this shift [4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Empowerment - The industry consensus has shifted from "who controls the channel wins" to "who captures the youth wins," indicating a marketing and operational transformation towards a user-centered approach [5] - Consumption is evolving from social symbols to emotional companions, with younger consumers preferring lower-alcohol beverages for a relaxed experience, valuing "heart price" and "emotion price" over mere status [5][6] - Product innovation is focusing on health, flavor diversity, and convenient packaging, breaking traditional taste barriers [7][8] - The rise of instant retail is meeting the demand for immediate satisfaction, with significant growth in online sales during promotional events [9] - Social drinking scenarios are diversifying, moving from formal gatherings to casual settings like parties and festivals, with brands leveraging social media for engagement [10][11] Group 3: Systemic Breakthrough - The new era of liquor consumption is characterized by consumer sovereignty, driven by information equality and diverse choices, with competition extending beyond the liquor industry to other beverage categories [12] - Companies need to innovate across multiple dimensions, including product offerings, channel strategies, and brand building, to create a cohesive competitive advantage [13][14] - Successful companies will be those that accurately address the core needs of health and self-enjoyment while implementing systematic innovations in products, channels, and branding [14][15]

Core Insights - The energy drink industry is shifting from a rigid demand for energy replenishment to a focus on health and scenario segmentation, with Dongpeng Beverage positioning itself as a leading brand by launching sugar-free products to meet core consumer needs [1] Group 1: Industry Development - By 2025, the Chinese energy drink market is expected to reach a scale of 62.785 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and a sales volume of 4.1899 million kiloliters, reflecting a stable growth trend [1] - Dongpeng Beverage holds a market share of 39.87% in the first half of 2025, leading the industry amid intensified competition and ongoing low-price promotions [1] - The average price in the industry is projected to decrease by 1.89% year-on-year to 14.98 yuan per liter, with Dongpeng's strategy focusing on low pricing and large packaging [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of Industry Development - Domestic demand for energy drinks is driven by social competition and the need for energy replenishment, with significant consumption among "new blue-collar" workers, white-collar professionals, and students [2] - In the overseas market, the energy drink industry is transitioning from a focus on basic functionality to health-oriented, differentiated functions, and diverse flavors, as evidenced by the rise of Celsius in the U.S. market [2] Group 3: Main Raw Materials - Taurine prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply, with the beverage industry being the largest application market, accounting for 45% of global taurine consumption [3] - Sugar prices are also projected to stay relatively low, with a total sugar production of 11.7 million tons in China for the 2025/26 season, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to accumulation [3] Group 4: Development Trends - Health has become a core product trend, with 67.87% of consumers expressing a need to control sugar intake, prompting Dongpeng to launch a sugar-free energy drink by 2025 [4] - Consumption scenarios are evolving from high-intensity physical exertion to more frequent, lighter cognitive demands, with Dongpeng's sugar-free version targeting brain fatigue relief [4]