Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable growth in key economic indicators for April, with notable attention on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) [2] - April's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.5%, indicating stability [2][4] - The PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous month, influenced by international energy price drops and external factors [2][5] Economic Analysis - The core CPI's stability suggests resilience in China's domestic demand market, providing room for further policy action [2][3] - The government's target for CPI growth by 2025 is around 2%, with current figures indicating a significant gap to this goal [2] - Analysts suggest that a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies could help achieve a mild price recovery and support GDP growth of approximately 5% by 2025 [2][3] Price Trends - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous downward trend, with seven out of eight categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [4] - Food prices saw a mixed trend, with some items like beef, lamb, seafood, and fresh fruits rising, while fresh vegetables and pork prices declined [4] - The PPI's decline is affecting industrial enterprise profitability, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation [5][6] Future Outlook - The stability of CPI and core CPI reflects the vitality of China's domestic demand market, with expectations for gradual price recovery as policies continue to be implemented [7] - There is a need to address external shocks, particularly from international trade tensions, which could impact industrial product prices [7] - The government aims to enhance support for high-tech industries and promote industrial upgrades to strengthen economic resilience [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices rebounded due to the US-UK trade agreement and increased geopolitical uncertainties. The report remains optimistic about leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. It emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutes, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, maintaining a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and less dependency on oil prices. It suggests monitoring domestic demand and new material substitutes, especially in the agricultural sector [13][14]. 2. Oil and Chemical Prices Information 2.1 Oil - As of May 9, Brent oil prices increased by 4.3% to $63.91 per barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 438.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 2 million barrels. Gasoline inventory rose by 200,000 barrels to 225.7 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventory decreased by 1.1 million barrels to 106.7 million barrels [14]. 2.2 Chemicals - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were liquid chlorine (up 134.1%), natural gas (up 8.0%), and polymer MDI (up 5.0%). The top three price decreases were formic acid (down 10.0%), succinic anhydride (down 9.4%), and cyclohexanone (down 6.9%) [9][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [13]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [13]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [13]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [13].

以下文章来源于终身黑白 ，作者终身黑白投资感悟 终身黑白 . 畅销书《行稳致远，价值投资的底层逻辑》作者，雪球网2024年十大影响力用户，聊聊投资和人生，适 度分散 长期持有 选优秀的企业 做时间的朋友 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 终身黑白 来源：雪球 01 先聊聊实质性的思考 对于这次加关税的想法大部分周天已经写了 ， 再随便聊聊 。 还是老惯例 ， 咱就不聊什么宏大 叙事了 ， 就聊聊对我们投资思考的部分 。 1 、 昨天川普发文叫嚣 ， 大致的意思是如果中国不取消34%的关税 ， 4月9日会把本次提高的 关税加到50% 。 这个周天黑白写过 ， 后面其实威慑力没那么大了 ， 10%和20%区别很大 ， 因为影响着大多出 口企业的利润 ， 但是60% 、 70% 、 80%区别就没那么大了 ， 因为都是大部分生意做不了 。 2 、 这事对美国国际上的口碑逆转不小 ， 这两天看了看外面的新闻 ， 首先是很多国家出现团 体开始抵制美国产品 ， 影响大小不说 ， 但是是口碑的改变 。 人从来没有感同身受 ， 这次一起挨打大家才深刻的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff actions and a significant drop in international oil prices due to weak supply and demand expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to domestic market opportunities, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season, and the potential for domestic substitution in new materials due to tariff pressures [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report notes that as of April 4, Brent oil prices fell by 10.9% to $65.58 per barrel, influenced by tariff actions and OPEC+ production plans exceeding expectations, leading to a significant decline in oil supply forecasts [13] - It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong alpha, recommending investments in companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, all of which are expected to benefit from recent market dynamics [12][14] 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of March 28, U.S. crude oil commercial inventories stood at 439.8 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 6.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels [13] - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for acrylic acid (up 8.8%), synthetic ammonia (up 5.0%), and DMF (up 4.7%). The largest decreases were for tetrachlorethylene (down 7.1%), tryptophan (down 5.8%), and succinic anhydride (down 5.8%) [14][15] 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI showing recent profit improvement with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [12] - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, recovering from previous macro demand pressures [12] - Runfeng Co.: A rare stock with global formulation registration and sales channels [12] - Guoguang Co.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [12] - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved margins [12]