Core Viewpoint - In November, China's export growth exceeded expectations and previous values, primarily driven by strong resilience in exports to non-US regions, with significant contributions from the automotive, semiconductor, and machinery sectors. The drag from labor-intensive products on overall exports has diminished [1] Export Analysis - The export growth in November is attributed to robust performance in non-US markets, indicating a resilient demand [1] - Key sectors contributing to export growth include the automotive industry, semiconductor industry, and machinery and transportation equipment [1] - The overall export growth for the year is projected to reach approximately 5.3%, supported by a strong fundamental outlook for next year [1] Import Analysis - In contrast, import growth in November fell below expectations, potentially linked to a decline in manufacturing sector activity [1] - Notable increases in import volumes were observed for bulk commodities such as iron ore, copper, and natural gas, while imports of crude oil and coal saw a decrease in growth rates [1]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 证监许可【2011】1288号 11月份，中国出口机电产品2059亿美元，同比增长9.7%，1-11 月累计同比增长8.0%，去年全年增长7.5%。1-11月高新技术产品出 口同比增长6.6%，去年全年增长4.8%。1-11月集成电路出口同比增 长24.7%，去年全年增长17.4%。前11个月出口汽车（包括底盘）同 比增长16.7%，去年全年增长15.5%。前11个月出口船舶同比增长26. 8%，去年全年增长57.3%。前11个月出口家电同比下降3.6%，去年 全年增长14.1%。前11个月出口手机同比下降11.2%，去年全年下降 3.1%。前11个月出口箱包及类似容器同比下降13.5%，去年全年下降 3.2%。前11个月出口玩具同比下降12.1%，去年全年下降1.7%。前1 1个月出口服装及衣着附件同比下降4.4%，去年全年增长0.3%。前1 1个月出口家具及零件同比下降5.9%，去年全年增长5.8%。今年中国 出口更高科技含量产品和传统优势出口产品的增长速度明显分化。 11月位于中国进口金额前列的还是集成电路和大宗商品。11月中 国进 ...

中国山东省的青岛港（kyodo） 汽车大幅增长50％。稀土也高于去年同期。对美出口下降28.6％，对日本出口增长4.3％…… 中国海关总署12月8日发布的11月贸易统计（以美元计价）数据显示，出口同比增长5.9％，达到3303亿 美元。2个月来再次转为增长。包含纯电动汽车（EV）在内的汽车出货量增加。 进口同比增长1.9％，达到2186亿美元，连续6个月实现正增长。出口额减去进口额得出的贸易顺差为 1116亿美元。由于出口增幅高于进口增幅，贸易顺差规模相较于去年同期有所扩大。 从出口品类来看，汽车大幅增长50％。稀土也高于去年同期。智能手机和个人电脑则分别低于去年同 期。 从出口目的地来看，对美出口下降28.6％。对最大出口目的地东盟（ASEAN）出口增长8.2％。对日本 出口增长4.3％。对欧盟（EU）出口也高于去年同期。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： ...

从主要出口产品来看，半导体出口达172.6亿美元，同比增长38.6%，刷新纪录；汽车虽然受美国关 税影响，但也以164.1亿美元，同比增长13.7%。 从主要出口国来看，对美出口受关税影响达到103.5亿美元，同比小幅减少0.2%。对华出口得益于 半导体、石油化学等主力产品出口增长，金额达到120.7亿美元，同比增长6.9%。 （原标题：韩国11月出口610.4亿美元同比增长8.4%） 据韩联社12月01日报道，韩国11月出口610.4亿美元，同比增长8.4%，是历年11月的最高值。自今 年6月起，韩单月出口额连续6个月刷新纪录，持续出口增长趋势。 韩国11月进口513亿美元，同比增长1.2%。至此韩国11月贸易收支实现97.3亿美元的顺差。 ...

11月重卡破10万，同比增幅近五成，以"八连涨"收官淡季。 11月重卡市场呈现"同比高增、环比微降"特征。据最新数据获悉，2025年11月，国内重卡市场销量预计达10.1万辆（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环 比下降5%，同比增长47%，实现"八连涨"且平均增速43%；2025年1-11月，国内重卡累计销量预计103万辆，同比增长26%，全年冲刺110万辆在即。 请看最新数据分析。 11月：五家企业销量破万辆 两家企业增幅达1.5倍 2025年11月，重卡市场在传统淡季交出了一份超出预期的成绩单——10.1万辆销量同比增长47%，延续了自4月起的"八连涨"态势。这份亮眼数据背后，是 政策红利、出口增长（11月中国重卡出口批发销量预计增长20%）与新能源渗透率提升的多重支撑，也为即将到来的2026年行业转型埋下伏笔。 从终端需求来看，11月，国内终端销量同环比双增——环比预计增长13%，同比预计增长近40%。其中，燃气车终端销量同比增速预计超75%，国内渗透 率在25%左右。在细分市场中，受以旧换新政策截止与2026年新能源购置税减免退坡影响，11月新能源重卡终端销量预计2.6万辆，同比增长1.6倍，单月 渗透 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with the actual GDP growth for the first three quarters of this year recorded at 5.2%, indicating a positive trajectory towards achieving the annual target [1][2]. Economic Performance - The report from KPMG highlights that the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in China grew by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters [1]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year during the same period, with online retail sales showing a robust growth of 9.8% [1]. Investment and Consumption - The coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost domestic demand, particularly in investment, leading to a recovery in production [1]. - The introduction of 500 billion RMB in policy financial tools is anticipated to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure investment, resulting in a new round of production expansion for related equipment and upstream building materials [1]. Consumer Market Outlook - The report anticipates that promotional events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," along with holiday consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, will support the consumer market in the fourth quarter [2]. - Service consumption is expected to be a significant driver of growth in consumer spending during this period [2]. Export Performance - China has successfully expanded its exports to non-US markets, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% in the first three quarters, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [2]. - The report suggests that the traditional overseas consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, combined with China's competitive advantages in high-end equipment and new energy products, will help maintain export resilience [2].

Core Insights - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the continuous improvement in the competitiveness of China's export products due to industrial upgrades and enhanced technological content [1] Export Performance - In the first ten months, the export value of electromechanical products increased by 8.7% year-on-year, accounting for 60.7% of the total export value [1] - The export values of integrated circuits and automobiles grew by 24.7% and 14.3%, respectively [1] High-tech Product Exports - High-tech product exports also showed positive trends, with a growth rate of 7.3% in the first ten months, outpacing the overall export growth rate [1]

Core Insights - Chile's export companies exceeded 8,000 for the first time, reaching a record high in the first ten months of 2025 [1] - Total trade volume for Chile reached $163.68 billion, marking an 8.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Export value reached $86.39 billion, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest level recorded for the same period [1] Industry Breakdown - The manufacturing sector led with 4,925 exporting companies, followed by agriculture (1,712), services (1,055), wine (374), fisheries and aquaculture (338), forestry (303), and mining (245) [1] - Among the exporting companies, 3,262 were small and medium-sized enterprises, 504 were micro-enterprises, and 3,026 were large enterprises [1] Export Performance - Mining exports totaled $49.90 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, driven by strong copper concentrate exports amounting to $28.78 billion, which increased by 15.1% [1] - The fruit sector, including products like hazelnuts, walnuts, avocados, and lemons, saw exports of $7.08 billion, a 4.2% increase compared to the first ten months of 2024 [1] - The food industry exported $11.36 billion, with key products including salmon, squid, bamboo fish, frozen blueberries, and dried plums [1]

Core Insights - Colombia's export value reached $4.621 billion in September, marking an 11.1% year-on-year increase, the highest level in the past year [1] Export Performance - Agricultural, food, and beverage exports surged by 29.6%, significantly contributing to the overall growth [1] - Unroasted coffee and palm oil exports saw remarkable increases of 82.9% and 170.9%, respectively [1] - Manufacturing exports grew by 11.8%, driven primarily by sales of chemicals and transportation equipment [1] Sector Analysis - Despite an 11.9% decline in crude oil export volume, the mining and fuel products sector still experienced a 3.7% increase in export value, totaling $1.945 billion, due to a 410.9% surge in metal ores and scrap exports [1] Export Destinations - The United States remains Colombia's largest export destination, accounting for 26.2% of total exports, followed by Panama, Peru, India, Brazil, Canada, and Ecuador [1] - Exports to Peru and Panama contributed 9 percentage points to the overall growth, primarily driven by increased copper and precious metal exports [1] - Conversely, exports to the U.S. declined, particularly in crude oil sales, which fell by 37.5% [1] Trade with China - In September, Colombia's exports to China reached $140 million, representing 3% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% [1]