| 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 颜子琦 | S0350525090002 | | | | | yanzq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭溪源 | S0350125090019 | | | | guoxy@ghzq.com.cn | | 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益专题研究：转债抢权配售策略怎么看？ *颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-09-24 《固定收益点评：债市性价比如何？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-08 《债券研究周报：存款搬家进行时，对债市影响几 何*靳毅，刘畅》——2025-09-02 2025 年 09 月 29 日 债券研究周报 《固定收益点评：9 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-09-01 《固定收益专题研究：本轮牛市，可转债怎么看？ *靳毅，范圣哲》——2025-08-31 [Table_Title] 从三个细节谈起，债券调整到位了吗？ 债市机构行为周报（9 月第 4 周） 投资要点： 利率破位后，机构行为的三大变化与后续展望 9 月第 4 周债市走势震荡，根据 Wind 统计，截 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 |宏观策略 | 大类资产配置 第四季度策略 Market Strategy - 更加均衡 更加均衡 第四季度看多股票、商品和非美货币，看空债券和美元，建议资产组合和区域 配置更加均衡。美国经济小幅滞涨，白宫对美联储干预和美联储降息令收益率 曲线陡峭化，利空美元与美债，利好股票与商品。欧元区经济好于预期，通胀 止跌走平，国债收益率回升。英国经济放缓，通胀居高，利率远期有下降空 间。日本经济放缓，通胀回落，但加息可能延续。中国经济弱复苏，通缩可能 改善，国债收益率回升。 资料来源：彭博，招银国际环球市场 0 10 20 30 40 50 美元货基 英镑货基 欧元货基 日元货基 人民币货基 全球投资级债 美国投资级债 美国高收益债 其他投资级债 新兴市场债 MSCI全球 MSCI美国 MSCI英国 MSCI欧元区 MSCI日本 MSCI中国 黄金 比特币 铜 原油 2025YTD收益(%) 商品 股票 债券 货基 图 1: 年初以来各大类资产收益(美元计价) 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 刘泽晖 (8 ...

市场预测2025年通胀率为4.83%，与前一周一致，四周前的预测为4.86%。展望未来，市场预计2026年 通胀率为4.29%，2027年降至3.90%。目前通胀水平接近央行设定的目标区间上限4.5%。 在利率方面，市场预期2025年基准利率（Selic）维持在15%，连续第13周未变。2026年和2027年的预期 利率分别为12.25%和10.50%。 巴西央行货币政策委员会指出，受全球经济放缓、美国政策不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势影响，新兴市 场国家风险上升，因此需要保持谨慎。国内方面，虽然经济活动呈现一定放缓迹象，但通胀水平仍高于 目标。 8月，巴西出现自2024年8月以来的首次通缩，物价指数（CPI）环比下降0.11%，而全国消费者价格指 数（INPC）降幅更大，为0.21%。 对于经济增长，市场预计2025年巴西国内生产总值（GDP）增幅为2.16%，与前一周持平，四周前为 2.18%。2026年和2027年的经济增速预期分别为1.80%和1.90%。 新华财经圣保罗9月26日电（记者杨家和）巴西央行最新公布的《焦点报告》显示，巴西金融市场对 2025年的通胀率、经济增长、利率和汇率预期均保持稳定。 ...

Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The US economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with a revised growth rate of 3.8 percent, up from the initial estimate of 3.3 percent, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in nearly two years [3] - Wall Street experienced a pullback, with all three main indexes ending in the red after reaching record highs earlier in the week, indicating concerns over stock valuations following a lengthy rally [4] Interest Rate Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates due to a weakening labor market but indicated that further reductions are not guaranteed, leading to uncertainty in the market [2][3] - Decision-makers at the Federal Reserve have expressed varying views on future monetary policy in light of persistent inflation and soft job data [3] Tariff Implications on Pharmaceuticals - President Trump's announcement of new tariffs includes a 100 percent levy on "branded or patented" pharmaceuticals unless companies establish manufacturing plants in the US, which has raised concerns among Asian pharmaceutical firms [5][6] - Asian pharmaceutical companies, including Shanghai Fosun and South Korea's Daewoong, saw significant stock declines following the tariff announcement, with Fosun dropping more than four percent [6] Legislative Uncertainty - Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing negotiations in Washington regarding a funding package to prevent a government shutdown, with a deadline approaching next week [2][7] - The lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans over spending plans is contributing to market unease, as both parties remain at an impasse [8]

特朗普发布“利率前瞻指引”，称如果不是鲍威尔，现在的利率应该是2%，并且正在实现预算平衡。 https://t.co/8fNUFQ2kHR ...

Market Insights - The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center will optimize the "Swap Connect" operational mechanism by establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for quote providers and expanding the pool of quote providers. Additionally, the daily net limit will be raised to 45 billion RMB starting October 13. As of the end of August, 82 overseas investors from 15 countries and regions have completed over 15,000 RMB interest rate swap transactions with a nominal principal of 8.15 trillion RMB [1] - The International Financial Association reported that the global debt reached a historical high of 337.7 trillion USD by the end of the second quarter. Emerging market debt increased by 3.4 trillion USD to over 109 trillion USD, also a record high. The repayment scale for bonds and loans in emerging markets is expected to reach nearly 3.2 trillion USD for the remainder of the year, marking a historical peak [1] - Nine major European banks, including ING and UniCredit, announced plans to establish a new company to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin, aiming to create a European alternative to the currently US-dominated stablecoin market [1] Economic Indicators - The final annualized GDP growth rate for the US in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years. Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.5%, and final sales rose by 7.5% [3] - The final PCE price index for the US in the second quarter increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.7% year-on-year [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and significantly below the market expectation of 235,000 [3] Durable Goods and Housing Market - In August, US durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month-on-month, with July's final value revised to -2.7%. Excluding defense orders, the increase was 1.9%, and excluding transportation orders, the increase was 0.4% [4] - Seasonally adjusted, US existing home sales in August slightly decreased by 0.2% from July to an annualized rate of 4 million units, with the median home price rising by 2% year-on-year to 422,600 USD, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-on-year increases [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38% to 45,947.32 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.5% to 6,604.72 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% to 22,384.7 points [5] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to 3,780.5 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.89% to 45.47 USD per ounce [5] - US oil futures rose by 0.35% to 65.22 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.5% to 68.8 USD per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.50 basis points to 3.653%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.93 basis points to 4.168% [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.47, with the euro and pound both declining against the dollar [5]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Milan advocates for an immediate aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points to avoid economic damage, suggesting a total reduction of 150 to 200 basis points to approach neutral interest rates [2][3] - Goolsbee expresses caution regarding premature large rate cuts, emphasizing the need to bring inflation down to 2% before considering significant reductions [4] - Goolsbee remains optimistic about the U.S. economy's path towards reducing inflation, despite concerns about the labor market and the pace of AI adoption in businesses [4] Group 2: Trade and Economic Growth - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly by 16.8% in August to $85.5 billion, driven by a $19.6 billion drop in imports [6][7] - The second quarter saw the U.S. economy grow at an annualized rate of 3.8%, revised up from 3.3%, with trade deficit reduction being a major contributing factor [7]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On September 24, treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract down 0.24% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally rose, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp. Overseas, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan in September. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the central bank's policy space has increased, but the next policy adjustment needs central unified deployment. It is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On September 24, prices of various treasury bond futures contracts generally fell, such as the TS2512 contract down 0.05%, the TF2512 contract down 0.14%, and the T2512 contract down 0.24%. Open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. Trading volume varied among contracts [2] - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - Rates of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 generally rose on September 24. For example, SHIBOR7 days rose 12.8bp, DR007 rose 18.48bp, and GC007 rose 14.2bp [2] Spot Market - Chinese Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends on September 24. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.98bp to 1.9%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp [2] Overseas Market - Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: On September 24, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. It also announced a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September, continuing the moderately loose monetary policy [3] - **Trade Policy**: China stated at the WTO that it would not seek new special and differential treatment, while emphasizing its status as the largest developing country. The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with certain EU products on the tariff - exemption list [3] - **Financial Policy**: Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits, with specific collateral requirements [3] - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary criticized the Fed Chairman and urged a 100 - 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap with Argentina [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On September 24, most money - market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields collectively increased [3] Comment and Strategy - The market situation showed that treasury bond futures prices generally declined, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal, and short - end Shibor rates rose. Although the MLF continued to inject medium - term liquidity, considering factors such as economic data and the Fed's policy, it is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [3]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The latest GDP data for Q2 2025 shows significant economic performance among the world's major economies: the US, EU, and China [1][2][4] - GDP is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the total market value of all final products and services produced in a region [1] Group 2: United States Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, the US GDP reached $7.18 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7%, up from 2.3% in Q1 [2][4] - The growth was primarily driven by a 3.1% increase in personal consumption expenditures and a 5.2% rise in business investment [4] - Challenges include inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with a CPI increase of 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, and a 1.2% decline in residential investment due to high mortgage costs [4] Group 3: European Union Economic Performance - The EU's GDP for Q2 2025 was approximately €4.92 trillion (about $5.38 trillion), with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [4][5] - Economic growth varied among member states, with Germany's GDP growing only 0.1%, while Spain showed stronger growth at 0.6% [5] - The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates to support economic activity, indicating a cautious recovery [5] Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's GDP for Q2 2025 was ¥33.81 trillion (approximately $4.66 trillion), with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, up from 5.0% in Q1 [6] - Key growth drivers included a 4.8% increase in retail sales, stable industrial production growth of 5.7%, and a 5.6% increase in the service sector [6] - Challenges include a 10.1% decline in real estate investment and ongoing employment pressures, with an urban unemployment rate of 5.0% [6] Group 5: Comparative Analysis - The absolute GDP figures show the US as the largest economy at $7.18 trillion, followed by the EU at $5.38 trillion and China at $4.66 trillion [7] - In terms of growth rates, China's 5.3% year-on-year growth outpaces the US's 2.7% and the EU's 1.2% [9] - Each economy faces unique challenges: the US contends with inflation and a weak housing market, the EU grapples with structural reforms and geopolitical risks, while China deals with real estate adjustments and employment issues [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the varying market expectations and bond price fluctuations influenced by data, policies, and funding conditions at different stages [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 418.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [3]. - The funding environment shifted from tight to loose, with long-term bond yields slightly rising [3]. - The overnight funding rate (DR001) was around 1.44%, while the 7-day rate (DR007) increased to approximately 1.59% due to month-end factors [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed a stable sentiment in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.7975% and slightly decreasing to around 1.795% [5]. - The afternoon saw a peak in yields, with the 10-year bond rate reaching up to 1.82% before closing at 1.815% after the central bank injected an additional 300 billion yuan into the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [5][6]. - The article reflects on the bond market's struggles, contrasting the current situation with the previous year when the 30-year government bond yield was around 2.2% [6]. Group 3: Interest Rates Overview - The weighted rates for various repo codes were reported, with RO01 at 1.50%, R007 at 1.71%, and R014 at 1.84%, indicating changes in the market dynamics [4]. - The government bond yields for different maturities were detailed, with the 1-year yield at 1.3650%, 2-year at 1.5150%, and 10-year at 1.8150% [10].