美国国债收益率在美国总统日假期后变动不大。纽约联邦储备 银行的帝国州制造业调查显示，2月份商 业状况指数从1月份的7.7小幅降至7.1，而经济学家平均预期为10。12月份房屋开工数据将于明日公布。 周四公布的首次申请失业救济人数预计将从227,000人降至220,000人。周五将公布12月份个人消费支出 价格指数，其同比增幅预计将与11月份持平，为2.8%。根据芝商所的数据，市场预计美联储3月份维持 利率不变的可能性为90%。10年期国债收益率报4.037%，低于周五的4.055%。2年期国债收益率从 3.409%小幅升至3.416%。 ...

Global Monetary Policy Shift Tracking - Since the beginning of 2026, among 26 major economies tracked, only one has cut rates (Israel) and one has raised rates (Australia), while the US, Eurozone, and Japan have kept their policy rates unchanged [3][15]. - The Federal Reserve's current rate is maintained at 3.5%-3.75%, with a hawkish tone in the January FOMC meeting, indicating a strong economy and a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market expectations of 2 rate cuts in 2026 [16][23]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has also kept rates unchanged, with inflation stabilizing within the target range, leading to expectations that the ECB may not cut rates further in 2026 [17][23]. - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is in a "quasi-stagflation" state, with expectations of 2 rate hikes in 2026, but faces challenges due to supply shortages and inflationary pressures [18][24]. Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has risen to approximately $2.94 trillion, nearing the desired range of 10%-12% of GDP, indicating a recovery in liquidity [7][34]. - Various liquidity spreads have improved, with the EFFR-IOER spread stable at -1bp and the SOFR-EFFR spread averaging around 2bp, reflecting a slightly tight liquidity environment [8][42]. - The US Treasury market shows stable liquidity, with slight increases in bid-ask spreads for 10Y Treasuries, while credit risk premiums remain low, indicating a stable credit market [10][51][57].

摘要 2026年2月10日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.35，较2月3日下降0.05。具体来 看，截至2月10日的一周内，服务业相关指标"8城市地铁流量指数"和"30城市商品房销售指数"分别下降 0.02和0.07；工业相关指标"沿海煤炭运价指数"走低0.27，是本周YHEI回落的重要原因。 国家统计局公布1月物价数据。1月，CPI同比增长0.2%，增速低于上月0.6个百分点。其中，1月，核心 CPI同比增长0.8%，增速低于上月0.4个百分点；食品CPI同比增速在过去两个月有所上升后，当月走低 至-0.7%。具体看食品方面，春节错期是1月食品CPI同比回到负增长区间的重要原因。1月，猪肉、蛋类 和奶类价格均同比下降，当月分别下降13.7%、9.2%和0.8%。鲜菜、水产品和鲜果价格同比增速分别由 上月的18.2%、1.6%和4.4%降至6.9%、0.7%和3.2%。其他指标方面，同样受到春节错期影响，1月，旅 行社及其他旅游服务、邮递服务和家政服务价格分别同比下降6.6%、1.6%和3.5%。环比来看，1月， CPI增长0.2%，增速与上月持平。其中，消费品价格环比增速低于上月0.1个 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

美联储下调利率的同时，若其他渠道吸走储备，流动性依然可能收紧。例如，通过量化紧缩或美国财政部的相关操作，就会导致流动性趋紧。在无降息的情 况下，其他政策流入也可推动流动性走高。 比特币走势正日益紧密地追随市场流动性的波动，而非利率的小幅调整。 本文解释了为何市场预期中的降息近期未能推动比特币上涨，同时剖析了流动性收紧时，加密货币、股票甚至贵金属抛售同步的本质原因。 利率代表资金成本，而流动性体现市场内资金的总量与流向。市场有时混淆两者，但二者走势往往出现显著背离。 多年来，美国联邦储备系统的降息一直是比特币（BTC）交易员关注的关键宏观信号。较低利率通常意味着融资成本下降、风险偏好提升，并引发加密资产 回暖。然而，这一直观的降息与比特币走势挂钩的关系，近期已大为减弱。比特币目前的波动更取决于金融体系的实际流动性，而非借贷成本的预期或边际 变化。 你知道吗？比特币对流动性变化往往领先于传统市场，因此在宏观交易员中被视为"金丝雀型资产"，提前发出市场流动性趋紧而股市下跌的信号。 多项因素削弱了降息对比特币的影响： 比特币当前对流动性的反应大于对降息的反应。过去，降息曾推动加密货币市场回暖，但比特币最近的价格变动更 ...

US equities posted modest gains on Thursday as investors digested a strong January jobs report, fresh corporate earnings, and new labour market data, while keeping a close watch on inflation indicators that could shape the path of interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 295 points, or about 0.6%. ...

Core Insights - The price trend of Bitcoin is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, with market reactions to liquidity pressures surpassing concerns over the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][3] - Bitcoin is evolving from a mere "inflation hedge" to a real-time barometer of the global financial environment [2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors must distinguish between "currency price" (interest rates) and "currency quantity" (liquidity), as recent data shows that even with interest rate cut expectations, Bitcoin may face downward pressure if global liquidity tightens due to quantitative tightening (QT) or Treasury cash management tools [1][3] - Bitcoin exhibits "canary asset" characteristics, reacting to liquidity shortages before traditional markets do, due to its high dependence on leverage [1][3] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction plan, the pace of Treasury issuance, and changes in the scale of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP) are critical factors determining Bitcoin's price ceiling [1][3] - These hidden "financial pipeline" changes are more sudden and destructive compared to the frequently repriced interest rate paths [1][3]

铝类产业日报 2026/2/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,610.00 | -50.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,808.00 | -34.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -160.00 | -15.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -138.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 159,738.00 | -14665.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 296,788.00 | -15357.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 44,325.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 308,787.00 | +43564.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,117.00 | +12.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 485,750. ...

转自：金十数据 堪萨斯联储主席施密德表示，美联储应将利率维持在"一定程度的限制性"水平。他对依然过高的通胀持 续表达担忧。 "在我看来，进一步降息可能会让高通胀持续更久，"施密德周三在新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基一场活动的演 讲中表示。 他补充说，利率仍应对经济构成一定压力，但目前的情况可能并非如此。 "经济增长展现出动能，通胀依然过热，我没有看到太多经济受到抑制的迹象，"施密德说。 继2025年连续三次降息之后，美联储官员上月维持利率不变，施密德表示支持这一决定。目前联邦基金 利率目标区间为3.5%至3.75%，处于或接近多位官员估算的中性水平——即利率既不对经济构成压力也 不刺激经济。 施密德表示，持续的价格压力表明，经济大部分领域的需求超过供给。虽然人工智能等新创新技术最终 可能推动生产率增长，使经济在不推高通胀的情况下扩张，但"我们还没到那一步，"他说。 施密德发表讲话前不久，政府数据显示美国1月非农就业人数创下逾一年最大增幅，失业率意外降至 4.3%。 这位堪萨斯城联储主席承认2025年经济增长强劲，并表示美国经济正以"相当大的动能"进入2026年。 周三晚些时候，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，劳动力市场似乎 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is that the historical negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has broken down, indicating increasing investor anxiety about economic prospects [1][2] - Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022, gold prices have surged over 150%, reaching nearly $5,600 per ounce, contrary to traditional expectations [1][2] - Investors are now advised to allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold due to rising geopolitical tensions and high U.S. debt levels [1] Group 2 - The breakdown of the relationship between gold and interest rates suggests that investors are preparing for potential market turmoil and are increasingly concerned about the returns of traditional assets [2] - The persistent high inflation since early 2021 has altered the dynamics, making gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation, despite a recent decline in inflation rates to around 2.7% [3][4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have driven up gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets and central banks increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [5] Group 3 - The ongoing macroeconomic policy risks are expected to maintain steady demand for gold as a hedge against these uncertainties, with concerns about fiscal sustainability persisting into 2026 [5] - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, hinging on whether investors perceive high inflation and geopolitical tensions as temporary or as a new normal [6]