消费需求要实现上台阶式的增长，其GDP占比要提高到60％~65％，消费年增速达到6%以上。 解决中国总需求不足问题的关键是消费必须挑起大梁。"十五五"期间，消费需求要实现上台阶式的增 长，其GDP占比要从现在的56％提高到60％~65％，消费年增速应达到6%以上。 虽然6％的年消费增速和60%以上的消费占比只是一个合理的政策目标，但要实现这一目标，必须要有 超常规的政策手段或深化改革措施，如万亿级收入补贴、十万亿级的国有股权划转社保，以及百万亿级 的资本市场增值，甚至考虑零利率、负利率政策。 消费需求扩张的空间很大。当前中国最终消费率为56％，低于美国81％、日本75％和欧盟74％的水平； 居民消费率仅为40％左右，不仅低于美国（68％）、日本（55％）、欧盟（52％），也低于全球平均水 平（55％）。"十五五"期间，如果消费率尤其是居民消费率能够上一个台阶，就能够明显缓解总需求不 足之困，有效打开中国经济的增长空间，这也是"十五五"规划建议提出"居民消费率明显提高"的根本原 因。 怎样才能算实现上台阶式的增长？我们认为，"十五五"期间最终消费率要从56.6％（2024年）提升至 60％以上，居民消费率要从4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the yields of most active treasury bonds declined. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.52%. Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a mixed performance, with some weakening and some improving. Overseas, the US government averted a shutdown, but the employment market showed downward risks, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December dropped significantly. The economy in Q4 is expected to continue a weak recovery. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum, interest rates may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.06% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 1244, 3133, 2388, and 1158 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 spreads decreased by 0.01, 0.06, 0.01, and 0.01 respectively. T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 spreads increased by 0.00 and 0.01 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 10869, 8352, 2955, and 6927 respectively. T top 20 net short positions increased by 1874, TF top 20 net short positions decreased by 1152, TS top 20 net short positions decreased by 34, and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 683 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD Bonds - The net prices of multiple CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB up 0.0041, 220019.IB up 0.0043, etc. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of 1 - year bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year and 7 - year and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.55bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and 5 - year bonds increased by 0.20bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.66bp, 1.70bp, 3.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively. Silver - pledged 14 - day decreased by 3.00bp, and Shibor 14 - day remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4075 billion, the maturity scale was 4038 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. From January to October, national fiscal revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure increased by 2%. In October, the bank settlement - sale surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - On November 20 at 3:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. On November 20, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report [3]

Core Insights - Canada's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in October, influenced by falling gasoline prices, a slowdown in food price increases, and mortgage interest rates falling below 3% [1] - The cancellation of the gasoline carbon tax earlier this year has contributed to the sustained suppression of annual price increases [1] - The Bank of Canada signaled a pause in interest rate cuts last month, with stable inflation being a key reason [1] Inflation Details - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year increase in October was 2.7%, down from 2.9% in September when excluding the impact of the carbon tax cancellation [1] - Gasoline prices saw a significant decline, with the annual decrease expanding from 4.1% in September to 9.4% in October, primarily due to the carbon tax cancellation [1] - Food prices contributed to the inflation slowdown, with supermarket food prices rising by 3.4% year-on-year in October, down from 4.0% in September [1]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月17日数据：加拿大10月年度通胀率降至2.2%】因汽油价格下跌、食品价格涨幅回落及按揭利息 成本降至3%以下，加拿大10月年度通胀率降至2.2%。今年早些时候取消汽油碳税，压制过去数月年度 价格涨幅。 加拿大统计局称，若不考虑碳税取消，10月CPI同比涨2.7%，低于9月的2.9%。稳定的通胀 是央行上月释放暂停降息信号的主因之一。 10月通胀进一步回落，或增强其下月维持2.25%利率不变的 信心。10月汽油价格大幅下降，年度跌幅从9月的4.1%扩至9.4%，主因是取消碳税。 食品价格也是通胀 放缓因素。10月超市食品价格同比涨3.4%，低于9月的4.0%。 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 17 日 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 稳而不发：透视三季度货币政策执行报告 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli026575@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | （正文） 1. 四季度宏观数据低迷延续 10 月各项宏观数据公布，整体数据趋势呈现除通胀外全线增速回落的趋势。CPI 微幅转正，PPI 跌幅 收窄。其余数据增速均回落。全年保"5"的目标下，政策预期 mao dian 普遍在明年两会 权益市场在美国风险偏好传导以及内需政策预期博弈下回调震荡。债市短端较为稳固，超长端随风险 偏好波动较大。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 央行三季度货币政策执行报告的核心词是"结构性"与"延续"。 ◼ 大水漫灌式降息降准难出现，数量、价格、结构多元工具精细化调控，维稳货币边际宽松。 ◼ 删除"防范资金空 ...

美联储官员在公布重磅经济数据前放鹰，今年FOMC会议票委、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆表示，鉴于通胀率 高于目标水平，联储官员应谨慎行事。 明年票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，美联储应维持利率不变，以继续抑制通胀。 明年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，他不支持上月末降息，尚未决定12月是否降息，将根据经济 数据决定。 昨日，贵金属价格普遍下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.93%报4174.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.30%报52.23 美元/盎司。早盘时间，沪金、沪银反弹。 美国总统特朗普签署国会两院通过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦政 府"停摆"。 特朗普表示，美国政府"停摆"损失了1.5万亿美元，真正计算出损失的总体影响需要数周甚至数月的时间。 特朗普首席经济顾问哈塞特表示，10月将获得一半的就业报告，没有失业率数据，估计政府关门造成6万人失 业。 ...

越来越多的美联储委员暗示对进一步放松政策持谨慎态度，理由是仍担心通胀，以及在今年两次降息后劳动力市场出现相对稳定迹象，这促使金融市场认为12月降息的概率降至50%以下。一直坚定支持降息的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，在下次政策会议召开前大约四周做出任何决定都“为时过早”。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称，鉴于经济的韧性，他10月时反对降息，并且对12月会议持观望态度。包括亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克和克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克在内的无投票权决策者也表示倾向于维持利率不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South African Rand has strengthened against the US dollar for the first time since February 2023, trading below 17 Rand per dollar, following the government's adoption of a lower inflation target, suggesting that interest rates may remain high for a longer period than previously expected [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - The South African Treasury states that a lower price growth target will reduce inflation expectations and actual inflation in the long run, creating room for interest rate reductions [1] - This shift is expected to support household spending and business investment, thereby boosting economic growth [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Piotr Matys, a senior foreign exchange strategist at In Touch Capital Markets, indicates that the South African Reserve Bank may have less room to lower interest rates following the Treasury's adoption of the new lower inflation target [1] - If the trend of the South African Rand continues and the external environment remains favorable for risk assets, it could lead to further adjustments in the USD/ZAR exchange rate [1]

Economic Growth Overview - The UK economy continues to slow down, with a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter, and a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, indicating moderate expansion [1][6] - Nominal GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 5.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising employee compensation [1] Sector Performance - The production sector experienced a significant decline, with a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 0.9% year-on-year decrease, marking two consecutive quarters of decline [4] - The services sector showed resilience, with a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.6% year-on-year growth, becoming the core driver of economic growth [3] - Construction output grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, relying mainly on maintenance activities, while new construction projects saw a decline [3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, with clothing and entertainment being key growth areas [4] - Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.8% year-on-year, although corporate investment showed a slight decline [4] Trade and International Comparison - Exports and imports both saw slight declines, with trade deficit accounting for 0.6% of nominal GDP [4] - Compared to other G7 economies, the UK's Q3 growth rate of 0.1% is lower than the US (0.9%) and Canada (0.1%), but on par with Germany and Italy [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the UK's GDP slowdown reflects pressures from both production and demand sides, but the resilience of the services sector and capital formation may prevent economic contraction [6] - Wage growth and moderate inflation could reduce the urgency for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long term. The yields of 2 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.15 - 0.40bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 0.30 and 0.75bp to 1.80% and 2.15% respectively. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.49%. The central bank had a net investment of 20 billion yuan in the open - market treasury bond trading in October. Domestically, in October, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to an increase, the core CPI continued to rise, and the decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month. The official manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8% to 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI index was above the critical point, indicating stable overall production and business activities. Overseas, the US labor market cooled significantly, with a total decrease of 45,000 in ADP employment in the four weeks up to October 25th, increasing the risk of employment decline. Some Fed officials were worried about the current inflation risk, and there was still uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate cut in December. Strategically, the central bank's treasury bond trading operations in October were prudent, but the bond - buying operations still sent a loose signal to the market. In the future, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of the loose fiscal policy still need a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to mainly purchase medium - and short - term treasury bonds. In the short term, short - term interest rates are expected to continue to decline and may drive long - term interest rates down. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closing price was 108.520, up 0.02%; trading volume was 55,607, an increase of 3,414. TF main contract closing price was 105.970, up 0.03%; trading volume was 40,159, a decrease of 8,173. TS main contract closing price was 102.472, up 0.01%; trading volume was 20,087, a decrease of 8,335. TL main contract closing price was 116.450, up 0.09%; trading volume was 87,575, an increase of 14,105 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603 spread was 0.25, up 0.00; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.93, down 0.11. T2512 - 2603 spread was 0.23, down 0.01; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.55, down 0.01. TF2512 - 2603 spread was 0.03, down 0.01; TS12 - T12 spread was - 6.05, down 0.04. TS2512 - 2603 spread was 0.05, down 0.00; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.50, down 0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions (Lots) - T main contract open interest was 221,517, T top 20 short positions were 258,268, down 4,032; T top 20 long positions were 289,384, up 2,893; T top 20 net short positions were 21,384, up 421. TF main contract open interest was 131,209, down 578; TF top 20 long positions were 131,595, down 73; TF top 20 short positions were 152,985, up 2,052; TF top 20 net short positions were 21,390, up 2,125. TS main contract open interest was 64,193, down 1,509; TS top 20 long positions were 67,227, down 230; TS top 20 short positions were 77,892, down 481; TS top 20 net short positions were 10,665, down 251. TL main contract open interest was 122,816, down 2,848; TL top 20 long positions were 134,404, down 1,327; TL top 20 short positions were 155,668, down 312; TL top 20 net short positions were 21,264, up 1,015 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB (4y) was 106.5906, up 0.0305; 250018.IB (4y) was 99.0955, up 0.0257. 250003.IB (4y) was 99.6143, up 0.0040; 240020.IB (4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0076. 220016.IB (1.7y) was 101.8937, up 0.0012; 250012.IB (2y) was 100.0485, up 0.0038. 210005.IB (17y) was 131.4275, up 0.1137; 210014.IB (18y) was 127.725, up 0.1134 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield was 1.4000%, up 0.50bp; 3 - year yield was 1.4350%, down 0.25bp. 5 - year yield was 1.5720%, down 0.80bp; 7 - year yield was 1.6950%, down 0.35bp. 10 - year yield was 1.8040%, down 0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver pledge rate was 1.4279%, up 2.79bp; Shibor overnight rate was 1.4150%, down 9.30bp. 7 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5100%, unchanged; Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4740%, down 2.70bp. 14 - day silver pledge rate was 1.5550%, up 10.50bp; Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5000%, down 1.80bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 195.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 65.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 130 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework. It was pointed out that social financing scale and money supply were more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. The US announced a one - year suspension of the implementation of the export control penetration rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026. The US Senate passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act, taking a key step to end the government shutdown [2] 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The US October unadjusted CPI annual rate on November 13 and the US October PPI on November 14 are to be determined [3]