Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, leading to a slight increase in spot gold prices followed by a retreat, indicating minimal volatility in the market [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by over 4 basis points during the day, with short-term fluctuations around 2 basis points [1] - The S&P 500 index saw its gains slightly expand to over 0.2%, but later the increase narrowed [1] - Bitcoin experienced a minor increase before its daily decline slightly widened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for gold and silver is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices having dropped sharply from historical highs, while silver shows signs of stabilization and potential recovery [1][2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has seen a decline of nearly $500 from its historical high of $4382, reaching a low of $3886 before showing signs of a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a correction phase, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to result in a rate cut [2][5]. - Key price levels to watch include resistance around $4000 and support at $3886, with a small triangle pattern indicating potential breakout opportunities [3][5]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have stabilized after a decline, finding support around $45.5 and showing a bullish reversal with a hammer candlestick formation [6][8]. - The market sentiment suggests a cautious approach, with recommendations to reduce positions above $47.5 in anticipation of Federal Reserve announcements [6][8].

Group 1 - The U.S. EIA will release crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24, with a previous decrease of 961,000 barrels. A continued decline in this data could support an increase in crude oil and related commodity futures prices [1] - The Federal Reserve FOMC is expected to announce a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate during its meeting on October 30, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [2] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged during its meeting on October 30, with a press conference by President Lagarde following the announcement [3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's preliminary GDP for Q3 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate of 0.1% and an annual growth rate of 1.2%. A slight decrease from the previous annual rate could mildly suppress the rise in commodity futures prices, excluding gold and silver [4] - The U.S. is set to release its preliminary GDP for Q3, with expectations of a 3% annualized quarterly growth rate, down from the previous 3.8% [5] Group 3 - China will announce the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October on October 31, with expectations of a manufacturing PMI of 49.6 (previously 49.8) and a non-manufacturing PMI of 49.8 (previously 50). A slight decline in both PMIs could mildly suppress commodity and stock index futures prices but support government bond futures [6] - The U.S. will release the PCE price index for September, with expectations of a year-on-year rate of 2.7% (unchanged from the previous value) and a core PCE year-on-year rate of 2.9% (also unchanged). A slight decrease in the year-on-year rates but a slight increase in the month-on-month rate could strengthen market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November [7]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market experienced a significant decline last week, with spot gold closing down $138.26, a drop of 3.25%, ending at $4,112.65 [1] - Currently, gold is trading around $4,036, indicating continued downward pressure [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" by Scope Ratings due to deteriorating public finances and governance standards [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during its meeting on October 28-29 [9] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of inflation data next month due to a government shutdown, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] Group 3: International Relations and Conflicts - Pakistan's defense minister warned of "full-scale war" if no agreement is reached during talks with Afghanistan in Istanbul [14] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with Russia targeting Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure, leading to temporary power outages in Ukraine [16] - A joint statement from multiple Western nations, including Canada and the EU, emphasized support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP preliminary value for Q3 is expected to show continued moderate expansion, with consumer spending being a key focus [1] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October will reflect changes in consumer confidence following a decrease in inflation [2] - Japan's preliminary GDP for Q3 will be observed to assess whether the economy is recovering from weakness, particularly in exports and consumption [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, may influence the pace of interest rate cuts [3] - The EIA's report on crude oil inventory changes will impact short-term oil price dynamics [3] - The U.K. Manufacturing PMI for October will be monitored to evaluate the recovery of the economy in a high-interest rate environment [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes will provide insights into the latest assessments of inflation and economic growth [5] - Canada's GDP data for August will be released, with potential implications for short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar [6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement are anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with Powell's speech expected to guide market direction [7] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting results will be closely watched for any adjustments to negative interest rate policies and yield curve control frameworks [8] - Australia's Q3 Producer Price Index (PPI) will be analyzed to observe inflation trends and the subsequent policy space for the Reserve Bank of Australia [9] - The final value of the U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for October will help determine if manufacturing activity is recovering [10] - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index for October, as a leading indicator, may influence market perceptions of economic prospects [11]

Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions to maintain stability in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets [1] - The Federal Reserve plans to ease capital requirements for large banks, with the new proposal expected to increase overall capital by 3%-7%, lower than the previous 9% proposal [2] - The Bank of Japan indicates that the economy and inflation are in line with expectations, with potential for interest rate hikes later this year, although no clear basis for immediate hikes exists [2] - The Swiss National Bank has published its interest rate decision meeting minutes for the first time, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriate under various circumstances [2] - The Bank of Korea maintains its benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the third consecutive time due to concerns over rising real estate prices and mortgage loan growth [3] - The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 39.5%, marking the third rate cut since July [3] - The Bank of Indonesia has unexpectedly kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, aligning with inflation expectations [3] - Argentina's central bank has signed a $20 billion currency swap agreement with the U.S. Treasury [4] Market Observations - Citic Securities reports that the U.S. September CPI was below expectations, with overall inflation remaining stable, which may reinforce expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Moody's economists suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate this week due to weak trade performance and domestic demand [5] - Australian inflation data is set to be released, with expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not cut rates again this year due to rising prices [6] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum will take place from October 27 to 30 [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report on Wednesday [8] - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8] - The European Central Bank will also announce its interest rate decision and hold a press conference on Thursday [8]

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming week will focus on the APEC leaders' informal meeting and the "Super Central Bank Week," where major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with internal divisions among members regarding labor market risks and inflation concerns [2] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to maintain current interest rates, with the Bank of Japan cautious about early tightening and the European Central Bank ruling out further rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with August's data showing a persistent year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. will also release third-quarter GDP data, while China will announce the official manufacturing PMI for October, with expectations of a potential rise above the previous month's 49.8% [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian oil following U.S. sanctions, which previously accounted for about one-third of India's total oil imports [5][6] - The international oil market saw a rebound after hitting a five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 5% and Brent crude oil futures increasing over 7% last week [10] - The recent sanctions against Russian oil companies have heightened concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the oil price rebound [11] - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreasing, indicating a tightening supply situation [12]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 41 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of 48.762 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [3] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Fengbei Biotechnology on October 27 and Delijia on October 28 [3] Group 2 - The earnings reports for major A-share companies will be released next week, with notable companies like Kweichow Moutai, BYD, Vanke, and Sinopec expected to report [5] - A total of 4,347 listed companies are scheduled to disclose their Q3 reports from October 27 to 31, with 1,087 companies having already reported as of October 25 [5] - Among the companies that have reported, 647 have shown a year-on-year profit increase, accounting for approximately 59.52% [5] Group 3 - Major U.S. tech companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, are set to release their earnings reports next week [6] - Caterpillar and Boeing are also expected to release earnings that could significantly impact the market [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [7] - Investors will focus on the Fed's language following the decision to gauge future rate cut signals [7] Group 5 - The 2025 APEC Leaders' Meeting will take place from October 31 to November 1 in South Korea, with discussions on U.S.-China relations anticipated [6] - A trade negotiation delegation from China will visit Malaysia for discussions on economic relations with the U.S. [6]

2025金融街论坛年会即将开幕；10月PMI数据将公布；"超级央行周"来袭，美联储等多国央行将公布利率决议。 【重磅新闻】 10月PMI数据将公布 10月31日，国家统计局将公布10月PMI数据。此前数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续 改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总体稳定。综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个 百分点，持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。 本届论坛年会采取"主论坛+平行论坛+金融科技大会+配套活动"框架，其中，主论坛和平行论坛共安排27场活动，金融科技大会共安排11场活动。论坛年会 将聚焦推动全球金融高质量发展，呼吁进一步凝聚创新共识、激发变革动力、推进重塑行动，共同构建更具韧性、包容性和可持续性的全球金融体系。 国内油价下周一或迎年内第九次下调 按照成品油调价时间表，10月27日（下周一）24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显 示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50 ...