FICC日报 | 2025-12-10 关注中国11月通胀数据和美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月外贸增速大幅回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%；稀土出口环比增长26.5%， 大豆进口环比降14.5%。中共中央政治局会议明确指出，明年经 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses key support and resistance levels for various time frames in the commodities market, particularly focusing on oil prices [4] - For long-term positions, the support level is identified at 3255, while the resistance level is at 62.70 [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook unless reversal signals appear, with critical levels set between 4190-4200 for support and 58.80-59 for resistance [4] Group 2 - Important economic data and events to watch include China's November CPI year-on-year at 09:30, and the U.S. labor cost index at 21:30 [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic outlook summary will be released at 03:00, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell at 03:30 [4]

这次会议最受关注的焦点是： 美联储会不会调整 2026 年的利率路径。因为只要路径一变，美元、黄金、美股、加密货币的走势，都 可能被彻底改写 在关键会议前，不少交易者也在问： 加息 vs 降息，到底会带来什么影响？ 为了让你在 FOMC 前快速掌握大方向，FPG 将核心逻辑整理成一张最清晰、最好懂的图表 你怎么看？本次利率会： 欢迎在评论区分享你的判断 • 维持不变？ • 在措辞上偏鹰或偏鸽？ • 释放任何有关未来降息路径的线索？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar is experiencing slight depreciation against the US dollar, influenced by strong Canadian employment data and global trade concerns, with market focus on upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent Canadian employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating a resilient labor market, which strengthens the expectation for a hawkish stance from the Bank of Canada [1]. - The strong performance of the Canadian labor market is believed to alleviate structural inflation pressures, providing more flexibility for the central bank's policy rate path and reducing the likelihood of short-term easing [1]. Group 2: Commodity Influence - The Canadian dollar, being a commodity currency, is closely linked to international oil prices, which have recently experienced a significant decline, limiting the upward momentum of the Canadian dollar [1]. - The weak trend in oil prices has indirectly provided support for the USD/CAD exchange rate, restricting its downward movement [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment is cautious, with investors awaiting clear guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding future policy directions, which will directly impact the overall dollar movement and subsequently the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/CAD exchange rate is in a range-bound structure, with upward momentum slowing and both sides of the market in a rebalancing phase [2]. - Key resistance and support levels are identified, with significant pressure on bulls to break through resistance, while a critical support level is essential to prevent further downward movement [2].

美股指期货集体上扬，欧股与亚太市场涨跌互现。债市方面，美债收益率延续升势并刷新阶段高点，澳大利亚三年期国债收益率亦攀升至去年11 月以来最高水平。美元指数基本持平，澳元走强，日元承压。金跌银涨，油价在经历近三周最大单日跌幅后暂时企稳，加密货币下挫。 12月9日周二，市场在美联储利率决议前情绪谨慎，全球主要股指表现分化，美债收益率上行创新高。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家弗雷德里克·诺伊曼表示： "投资者们正按兵不动，等待美联储的决定。由于2026年美联储的政策路径仍存在不确定性，投资者将格外关注联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）的声明和预测。因此，隔夜美国市场较为谨慎的基调也延续到了今天的亚洲市场。" 核心市场走势如下： 市场焦点在于本周美联储利率决议，美股指期货集体上扬，美国债券收益率上行。美国10年期国债收益率周二升至4.182%，30年期收益率一度逼 近4.82%，均创9月以来新高。 据，交易员预计周三降息25个基点的概率约为90%，但分析师认为决议将伴随鹰派基调，暗示明年可能延长暂停降息。掉期市场显示的终端利率 已从不到3%跳升至3.2%，为7月以来最高水平。 | ES | 标普500期货小型 | 6864 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, trading around 98.938, while gold prices rose to 4207.65 USD/oz, with a peak of 4218.70 USD/oz and a low of 4195.31 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.26% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate decision on December 10, with a consensus predicting a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [2] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve members regarding priorities, with 85% of surveyed economists anticipating a focus on easing credit due to concerns over a weak labor market [2] Group 2 - A survey indicated that only one participant believes all 12 voting members will support the decision unanimously, with 60% expecting two dissenting votes and one-third predicting three or more [3] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates and increased layoffs, despite a surprising job increase in September [3] - Technical analysis of gold indicates a converging triangle pattern, with key resistance at 4230 and support levels at 4175, 4165, and the critical 4155-4150 range [4]

转自：新华财经 野村经济学家指出，市场可能严重低估了美联储在12月会议上维持利率不变的风险，这一"按兵不动"情 景正被投资者忽视。该机构特别指出，若最终决定降息，反对票数量将成为关键信号；随着四位新地区 联储主席轮换进入投票委员会，其立场将揭示美联储在政治压力下维持政策独立性的能力，这一细节可 能比降息幅度本身更具市场影响力。 高盛分析师指出，美国企业AI采用率已达17.4%，其中大型企业引领技术转型浪潮，40%的大型企业预 计在未来六个月内部署AI技术，远超全行业平均水平。早期调查数据表明，许多先行采用者已从生成 式AI项目中获得正向投资回报和显著生产率提升。从行业分布看，信息技术、专业服务、教育、金 融、保险、房地产和租赁、医疗保健及娱乐行业在AI应用方面处于领先地位。高盛特别指出，电信和 金融企业预计将在未来六个月实现最大幅度的AI采用增长，而计算机、出版和网络搜索等子行业目前 保持最高的实际采用率。这一趋势正重塑企业运营模式，推动技术投资加速。 摩根士丹利表示，预计美联储本轮降息周期尚未结束，未来还将有三次降息。预计欧洲央行将在2026年 再降息两次，明确反对欧洲央行行长拉加德关于"反通胀进程已经结束 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks collectively declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating market sensitivity to upcoming monetary policy announcements [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zijin Mining International (02259) fell by 4.07%, trading at 141.5 HKD - Shandong Gold (01787) decreased by 3.68%, trading at 33.52 HKD - China Silver Group (00815) dropped by 2.82%, trading at 0.69 HKD - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) declined by 1.84%, trading at 29.84 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted that the long-term logic for rising precious metal prices remains solid, but short-term market pricing may be overly optimistic, with potential risks of a market correction if the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1] - Xinda Futures projected that gold prices are likely to continue a high-level oscillation in the short term, with the true direction depending on the upcoming interest rate meeting [1] - Current market expectations for a rate cut in December are well-formed, which may limit upward price movement, while downward support is provided by weak economic data and expectations of a long-term easing path [1]

消息面上，北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储将公布12月利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发 布会。铜冠金源期货认为，贵金属价格长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实，但短期市场对于利多的定价已较为充 分，也需警惕降息靴子落地后，或者鲍威尔会后降息鸽派不及预期而导致市场情绪变化出现的回调风 险。 信达期货指出，展望未来，短期来看，金价大概率延续高位震荡格局，但真正的方向选择将取决于本周 议息会议。市场当前对于12月降息已形成较充分预期，价格上行空间受到一定压制，而下方支撑来自经 济数据偏弱与中长期宽松路径的预期。重点关注鲍威尔的前瞻指引是否重塑市场对明年利率路径的预 期，这将决定金价能否摆脱区间格局、迎来新的趋势方向。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体走低，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)跌4.07%，报141.5港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌3.68%，报33.52港元；中国白银集团(00815)跌2.82%，报0.69港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌 1.84%，报29.84港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The economics of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable, with the overall load above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure. The by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory has increased by 0.17 tons this week, and the market is slightly accumulating inventory [4]. - **Base - spread**: The PTA base - spread has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread is $252, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around 200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a medium - low level, the reformer unit profit has declined, and the load of overseas PX units is affected [4]. - **Macro - policy**: There is no significant impact on the market, and it is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Interest Rate Expectation**: On December 4th, a Reuters survey showed that 82% of economists (89 out of 108) believed that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December interest rate decision to support the cooling labor market, which was consistent with the nearly 85% probability of interest rate cuts in the interest rate futures market [8]. - **Personnel Arrangement Speculation**: Trump's staff and allies are discussing a personnel arrangement. If Trump appoints Hassett as the next Fed chairman, the current Treasury Secretary Bessent may also serve as the director of the White House National Economic Council, but the arrangement has not been finalized [8]. - **Gasoline Market**: US gasoline inventory is accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Although the US holiday travel demand has increased, energy prices are generally falling, and the RBOB gasoline price has also declined. The EIA data shows that the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories has further suppressed prices. The market's optimistic sentiment about the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has increased the expectation of Russian crude oil returning to the market, also putting pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ maintains its production - cut stance and has no short - term plan to increase production [23]. Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market in Asia**: The refined oil market in Asia has a structural shortage. The naphtha price has fallen due to weak petrochemical demand and the competition of low - price LPG. The gasoline and reformate markets are strong. The Asian reformate has a premium of $81/ton over naphtha, and refineries generally prioritize internal supply for gasoline blending rather than external sales for chemical use. The short - term reformate market will remain tight [42]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The overseas mixed xylene market is under pressure, and the price has significantly declined. The RBOB gasoline price has dropped, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia has closed. The decline in mixed xylene is limited by PX demand support. The supply of mixed xylene is restricted by the maintenance of multiple key aromatic hydrocarbon and cracking units [47]. - **PX Market**: The PX price is stable at a high level, and the structural contradiction is intensifying. The domestic PTA demand is strong, especially after India cancelled the BIS certification for PTA imports. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, and the PX - benzene spread has only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. Some PX production units are shut down or under maintenance, and the PX supply growth is limited [55]. Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The ethylene glycol price in East China is difficult to be effectively supported due to the continuous decline in coal prices. The new device production has increased the market supply pressure, and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has also put pressure on the market. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost the demand for textile and clothing exports [78]. - **Polyester Market**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Export demand has become a supporting force. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, and the PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May [4][55].