"市场经历前期震荡整理后,形成了有效的突破形态。资金回流与市场情绪修复,比如近期两市融资余额节 节攀升,为市场带来积极情绪。"杨超说。 本报综合 对于A股集体大涨的原因,杨超认为与多方面因素有关,一是政策预期升温,节后"十五五"规划政策预期升 温,叠加中国证监会主席吴清在近期座谈会上强调推进资本市场综合改革,增强了市场对政策红利的期 待；二是行业景气度提升,如科技板块的半导体产业链表现强劲,有色金属板块的贵金属、工业金属等板 块集体走强,以及新能源与储能,光伏设备、固态电池等板块也出现明显上涨；三是外部环境积极,国庆假 日期间,全球股市普遍上涨,港股市场也表现稳健,为节后A股提供了良好的外部环境。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一鸣表示,A股三大股指集体收涨是内外多重因素共振的结果。从外部看,假期 全球股指与商品普涨,日本股市、国际铜价也领涨,全球风险偏好改善。同时,美国政策扰动与降息预期推 升贵金属价格,铜价受供给短缺与算力革命支撑走强,为A股有色金属板块注入动能。此外,产业端,AI领域 Sora2等新品落地,英伟达、AMD推动行业竞争向生态升级,提振电子板块景气度。 "沪指创下近十年新高,具有重要的市场意义。"银 ...

晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 "十五五"规划部署在即，市场延续节前活跃状态——A 股市场投资策略周 报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 长假消费平稳增长，维持对包装纸行业乐观判断——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业 10 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/10/10） 宏观及策略研究 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 （2）9 月非制造业商务活动指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 50.0%，位于分界点。分行业来看，9 月建筑业商务活 动景气度小幅回升了 0.2 个百分点至 49.3%，继续位于收缩区间。服务业商务活动指数则受暑期效应消退影 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a new round of price increases for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) driven by global market conditions and new technologies [1][3] - The capacity utilization rates of major LFP suppliers indicate a competitive market, with some companies exceeding 100% utilization [1][3] Sub-industry Weekly Key Points Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The hydrogen energy sector saw significant gains in the US stock market, with companies like PLUG, BLDP, FCEL, and BE experiencing a surge [2] - A focus on green hydrogen and fuel cell production is recommended, particularly in light of the recent strategic partnership between OpenAI and AMD for 6GW of additional computing power [2][3] Wind Power - In September, state-owned enterprises increased wind turbine bidding by approximately 10GW, with offshore wind projects seeing a 39% year-on-year increase [2] - The expectation is for continued acceleration in offshore wind bidding in Q4, which may enhance installation forecasts for 2026 [2] Energy Storage - The energy storage sector remains robust, with notable contracts such as the 2.1GWh supply agreement signed by Arctech in Canada [2][3] - The focus is on large-scale energy storage systems and potential beneficiaries of battery price increases [3] Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the lithium battery sector, particularly those involved in LFP production [3][4] - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, suggesting a new round of price increases in the industry [3][4] Power Grid - The National Grid's fifth round of bidding for transmission and transformation equipment shows a year-on-year increase in the number of packages [4] - Cumulative bidding for the first nine months of the year reached 294.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The launch of the Zeekr 9X has generated significant market interest, although production capacity issues remain a concern [4][5] Recent Industry Events - Key developments include the issuance of new energy planning management measures by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration [5] - Major companies are actively pursuing IPOs and significant contracts in the energy storage and power grid sectors [5]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 10 月 10 日 10 月金股组合 中银证券研究部 2025 年 10 月金股 10 月金股组合 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 策略观点：对于节后市场，我们认为需要重点关注：1）美国政府停摆进 展及持续时间对经济数据和市场情绪造成持续影响；2）国内方面，二十 届四中全会将于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开，"十五五"规划将成为 节后市场关注焦点。短期来看，市场大概率延续震荡上行趋势。假期市 场内外部因素偏利多，国内方面，PMI 显示内需景气小幅回温，"十五 五"政策预期有望支撑市场短期风偏；海外方面，美联储降息预期升温， 美元中长期走弱逻辑仍在持续兑现。海外降息周期的开启有助于人民币 资产重估进程。四季度外资增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline in early trading on October 10, with the ChiNext index leading the drop, while certain sectors like cultivated diamonds and controllable nuclear fusion showed strength [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The cultivated diamond sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Sifangda and Huanghe Xuanfeng hitting the daily limit, and Huifeng Diamond rising over 20% [2] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector remained active, with stocks such as Hahwa Huatong and Hezhuan Intelligent reaching new highs, and An Tai Technology achieving consecutive gains [3] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Industrial securities suggest that after a period of consolidation since September, a new upward momentum is building, with a focus on the upcoming Q3 reports and key policy meetings [4] - Huatai Securities indicates that the market's upward trend may continue, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3900-point mark, and attention on Q3 economic data and policy directions [5] - CICC highlights a strong structural characteristic in the market, recommending a focus on growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and battery industries [6]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（183）期 发布日期：2025-10-10 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/9 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,171.50 | 1,164.00 | 7.50 | 0.644 | | | 焦炭 | 1,668.00 | 1,654.00 | 14.0 | 0.846 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,435.00 | 15,415.00 | 20.0 | 0.130 | | | 20号胶 | 12,485.00 | 12,465.00 | 20.0 | 0.16.0 | | | 塑料 | 7,047.00 | 7,077.00 | -30.0 | -0.424 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,73 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 行业配置观点：成长占优有望延续，关注景气行业 近期市场表现出较强的结构性特征，热点集中在成长板块。 由于前期市场成交迅速放大、交易集中，8月底后A股市场进入盘整震荡期，但不乏结构亮 点。海外AI算力的强劲需求持续被印证，中国能源转型目标较为清晰，在全球产业链上的定位决定了中国以制造业大国的角色参与技术革命，我们认为推 动制造升级将是中长期趋势，正在催化股票市场的结构性机会。 市场有望延续稳健表现，关注"十五五"规划建议。 展望节后，十一假期期间港股表现和出行数据相对平稳，国内外AI产业进展密集发布、国内工业企业 利润增速回暖，节后"十五五"规划市场政策预期有望升温，我们认为去年924以来A股震荡上涨趋势有望延续。 分别看各大类行业的景气表现：1）能源及基础材料：有色金属延续涨势，其余周期品价格表现分化，钢铁、石化化工、建材等行业稳增长工作方案发 布，有望推动供给趋于理性。 9月动力煤、水泥指数、玻璃指数价格分别上涨1.3%、0.6%、2.4%，焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、铁矿石、化工指数分别下跌 2.2%、1.2%、2.0%、0.9%、1.3%，有色金属、钢铁、石化化工、建材等行业2025~2 ...

10月9日，省委常委会召开会议，认真学习习近平总书记近期重要讲话重要指示精神，研究贯彻落 实举措。省委书记信长星主持会议并讲话。 会议指出，习近平总书记在庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会上的重要讲话，总结辉煌成就、 展望光明前景，鼓舞人心、催人奋进。要胸怀"两个大局"、保持战略定力，以只争朝夕的紧迫感、永不 懈怠的使命感，扎实推进中国式现代化江苏新实践，为强国建设、民族复兴伟业作出更大贡献。 会议学习了习近平总书记在中央政治局第二十二次集体学习时的重要讲话精神，强调，党的十八大 以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央提出一系列关于宗教工作的新理念新举措，形成了新时代党的宗教 工作理论和方针政策。要认真学习贯彻，进一步加强党的集中统一领导，进一步加强思想政治引领，抓 紧抓实宗教领域各项重点任务，不断深化我国宗教中国化的地方实践。 会议学习了习近平总书记对党校（行政学院）工作作出的重要指示精神和全国党校（行政学院）工 作会议部署要求，强调，全省各级党校（行政学院）要坚持党校姓党、牢记党校初心，紧紧围绕总书记 赋予江苏的使命任务，扎实抓好党的理论教育、党性教育和履职能力培训，持续深化教学改革，健全常 态化培训特别是基 ...

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to open with a focus on resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological competition as key structural themes [20] - Global major asset performance during the holiday showed positive trends, with significant increases in Asian markets, particularly the Nikkei 225 index rising by 6.7% [1] - Gold prices reached a milestone, surpassing $4000 per ounce, reflecting a 50% increase this year due to global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases [9][10] Group 2 - China's gold reserves increased to 7406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of accumulation [12] - The U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability, impacting market sentiment and driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [13][29] - The appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment in the region [14] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the market will continue its upward trend in October, supported by stable economic fundamentals and inflows of incremental capital [21][24] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to shape market expectations and trading directions, with a focus on technology and innovation sectors [21][27] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area of investment, with significant developments in computing power and applications expected to drive growth [18][24]

Core Points - The A-share market experienced a significant rise on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points, reaching a ten-year high of 3936.58 points, and closing at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2][3] - Analysts indicate that this surge reflects enhanced market confidence, increased foreign capital allocation intentions, and signals of liquidity easing [2][3] Market Signals - The rise in the Shanghai Composite Index indicates an improvement in market sentiment and investor confidence [3] - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached a monthly high since November 2024, suggesting a growing global capital allocation interest in China [3] - The trading volume in the market increased significantly, with a total turnover of 2.65 trillion yuan, up by 471.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - Various sectors saw substantial gains, with the rare earth index and nuclear fusion index rising over 7%, and the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a 7.60% increase [4] - Over 3100 stocks rose, with many hitting the daily limit, particularly in the precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors [4] Reasons for Market Surge - The market's rise is attributed to several factors, including heightened policy expectations related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the emphasis on capital market reforms by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [5] - The performance of the technology sector, particularly the semiconductor industry, and the strength of the precious and industrial metals sectors contributed to the market's upward momentum [5] - A favorable external environment, with global stock markets generally rising during the National Day holiday, also supported the A-share market [5] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share and Hong Kong markets may benefit from long-term policy layouts and a relatively loose liquidity environment in October [6] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on structural investment opportunities in technology growth sectors [6] - Recommendations for investment include sectors such as AI, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and precious metals [6][7]