Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For nickel, due to the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and supply tension in the nickel ore market, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, considering the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants, potential price pressure on the ore end, and the maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants, it is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 122,500 yuan/ton and closed at 122,170 yuan/ton, a - 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,308 lots, and the open interest was 29,331 lots [1]. - The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened slightly lower and oscillated weakly sideways, while the day session oscillated and declined weakly, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [2]. - The nickel ore market was quiet. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipping was affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and had a strong desire to lower nickel ore prices. In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price for nickel ore in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, and the premium was still under negotiation. Some Indonesian iron plants had the intention to cut production due to high costs [2][3]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 850 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 0 - 2,200 yuan/ton, that of imported nickel was 0 - 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,120 (- 130) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,998 ( + 1362) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the nickel ore supply is tight. New transactions need to be monitored. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 98,902 lots, and the open interest was 92,426 lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract oscillated in a narrow range and consolidated throughout the day, closing with a small doji. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Similar to the nickel market, the nickel ore market was quiet, and some Indonesian iron plants planned to cut production. Some stainless - steel plants had maintenance plans [3]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures oscillated sideways. Most merchants kept their prices unchanged. Downstream demand was weak, and merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply pressure of cold - rolled products remained. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,150 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 385 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Similar to the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, and new transactions need to be monitored. The maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants may support the market. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead has shown a slight increase, but it is expected to lack sustained performance. Currently, it is the off - season for lead consumption, with weak downstream demand. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$17.65/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders offered discounts of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 150 - 140 yuan/ton to SHFE lead contracts 2506/2507 for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales, and holders offered discounts of 40 - 30 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, holders offered premiums of 50 - 75 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead [2] Futures Market - On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,760 yuan/ton and closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,820 lots, an increase of 33 lots, and the open interest was 46,064 lots, an increase of 1,732 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,850 yuan/ton and a low of 16,745 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,765 yuan/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On May 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 43,000 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 292,375 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the range approximately between 16,920 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - The option strategy is to sell call options [4]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 碳酸锂：企业发布复产研究公告，成本腰斩， 偏弱运行 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 套保：卖出套保 30%。 报告导读： 本周价格走势：破新低 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 61800 元/吨，周环比下跌 1220 元/吨，2509 合约收于 63200 元/吨，周环比下跌 1100 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 750 元/吨为 64500 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 470 元/吨至 2700 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+530 元/吨， 周环比走强 20 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1400 元/吨，环比-120 元/吨。 供需基本面：企业发布复产研究公告，成本腰斩 供应：锂矿价格下跌斜率进一步陡峭，带来锂盐成本支撑回落。根据澳大利亚前期停产矿山 Finniss 的复产公告，其指出该矿山单位运营成本已优化至 690–785 澳元/吨（FOB），折算为 444-504 美元/吨 （停产前成本在 1100 美元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and demand, with a notable increase in export volumes of electric vehicles from China, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [1] Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 63,860 CNY/ton and closed at 65,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.0% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - Trading volume reached 377,525 lots, while open interest decreased by 17,270 lots to 276,956 lots [1] - Total open interest across all contracts was 465,422 lots, down by 3,011 lots from the previous day [1] - The total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day, with a speculative ratio of 1.02 [1] Pricing Information - Current spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate range from 63,600 to 65,800 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 62,550 and 63,550 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 100 CNY/ton increase [1] - The futures market shows a premium of 500 CNY/ton for electric lithium carbonate [1] Demand and Supply Insights - Downstream enterprises exhibit low purchasing willingness, primarily relying on customer supply and long-term contracts to meet demand [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain prices, with transactions occurring mainly between traders and downstream companies [1] Export Trends - In April, China's automobile export volume reached 424,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - New energy vehicle exports totaled 186,000 units, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 32.6% and a year-on-year increase of 64.5% [1] - Pure electric vehicle exports reached 120,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 39.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [1] - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports amounted to 62,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 19.9% and a year-on-year increase of 153.9% [1] Strategic Outlook - Short-term macroeconomic improvements are expected to drive a rebound in the market, suggesting a range trading strategy with a recommendation for upstream entities to sell high for hedging [1]