Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - **Cost**: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - **Production Scheduling Expectation**: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt**: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - **Modified Asphalt Operating Rate**: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].

Core Insights - The main contract price for propylene closed at 6420 CNY/ton, an increase of 11 CNY from the previous day, while spot prices in East China and North China showed slight declines [1] - Overall operating rate for propylene decreased to 73%, down by 2% [1] - Downstream production rates and profits varied, with notable decreases in PP powder and phenol ketone, while propylene acid saw the largest increase in operating rate [1] Supply Analysis - Propylene supply is tightening due to reduced operating rates and maintenance at several facilities, including Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng [1] - The restart plans for Wanhua and Hebei Haiwei are expected to alleviate the tight supply situation in the near future [1] - Current inventory stands at 31,710 tons, a decrease of 5,320 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is weakening as propylene prices remain high, leading to reduced profitability in several sectors [1] - The operating rate for PP powder has dropped significantly, while the production of butanol and propylene acid has seen slight increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm has diminished, potentially limiting the upward price movement of propylene [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ continues to maintain increased production, but geopolitical tensions are causing fluctuations in oil prices [1] - External propane prices are on the rise, impacting overall cost structures [1] Strategic Recommendations - A neutral stance is suggested for single positions, while monitoring the main PDH restart for potential high-level hedging opportunities [1] - No specific strategies are recommended for cross-commodity trading at this time [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.71%, the Dow Jones down 0.97%, and the S&P 500 down 1.29% [2][3] - TSMC and Nvidia both fell over 2%, while NIO dropped 3% after earnings [2] - PepsiCo saw an increase of over 5% [2] Stock Prices - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 45102.05, down 442.83 points (-0.97%) [3] - Nasdaq Composite: 21087.81, down 367.74 points (-1.71%) [3] - S&P 500: 6377.15, down 83.11 points (-1.29%) [3] Pre-Market Movements - TSMC's stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading [3] - NIO's stock initially rose over 5% before experiencing a drop of about 20% [4] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude up over 3% to $65.91 per barrel, and Brent crude up 1.84% to $69.40 per barrel [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is "oscillation", while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of asphalt has stabilized and rebounded, but the market's internal upward drive is insufficient. Although the growth of supply is limited, the improvement of rigid demand is also weak due to weather and capital factors. The market trading atmosphere is average, and speculative demand is weak. If oil prices continue to rebound, the futures market will be boosted, but the sustainability is questionable [2] Market Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,512 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,301 lots, down 17,115 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 169,612 lots, up 30,160 lots from the previous day [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The asphalt spot prices in North China increased yesterday, while those in Shandong decreased. The prices in other regions remained generally stable. Recently, crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and the BU futures market has followed suit, with support at the lower end of the market beginning to emerge [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated seventh reduction in refined oil prices for the year, with a projected decrease of 205 yuan per ton, translating to a drop of approximately 0.16 to 0.19 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [1][3][5]. Oil Price Adjustment Overview - The 17th round of oil price adjustments will commence on August 26, with the current oil price change rate at -4.18% [1][3]. - Year-to-date, there have been 25 oil price adjustments, with 16 completed, resulting in a pattern of "6 increases, 6 decreases, and 4 stasis" [5]. Current Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that international crude oil prices are fluctuating between 63 to 66 yuan per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and the uncertain outlook of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is mixed, with some analysts suggesting that geopolitical risks may still support oil prices, while others highlight pressures from OPEC+ production increases and inflation concerns [5][6]. Future Outlook - There is a potential for a technical rebound in oil prices due to strong demand and unexpected declines in IEA oil inventories, despite ongoing supply pressures [5][6]. - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ decisions regarding future production policies, particularly the exit from current production cuts [6].

Group 1 - Domestic oil prices are set to decrease for the seventh time this year, with savings of approximately 0.14 to 0.15 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel, translating to a reduction of about 7 yuan for a full tank of gas [1][2] - The recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices are attributed to mixed factors, including reduced geopolitical supply risks due to European tensions and renewed uncertainty regarding peace talks, leading to a negative change rate of -4.09% as of August 25 [1] - The next price adjustment window is scheduled for September 9, 2025, with expectations of a potential increase in retail fuel prices based on the current upward trend in crude oil prices [2] Group 2 - For private vehicles, the estimated fuel cost reduction is around 10 yuan per vehicle for those running 2000 kilometers monthly, while heavy-duty trucks could see a decrease of approximately 266 yuan under similar conditions [2] - The continuous rebound in crude oil prices is viewed as a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding previous negotiations, with the market now focusing on ongoing European issues [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have rebounded, with Brent and WTI prices reaching 67.22 and 63.66 USD per barrel respectively as of August 22, 2025, supported by declining US crude and gasoline inventories [2][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a positive performance, with the sector rising by 2.92% compared to the 4.18% increase in the CSI 300 index [9][12] - The report highlights the increase in US crude oil production to 13.38 million barrels per day, with a slight increase in refinery processing rates [52][63] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of August 22, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at 67.22 USD per barrel, up 1.37 USD (+2.08%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at 63.66 USD per barrel, up 0.86 USD (+1.37%) [28] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 370, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms total 133, down by 2 [35] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 55,000 barrels per day from the previous week [52] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US is 411, down by 1 from the previous week [52] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing averaged 17.208 million barrels per day, an increase of 28,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 96.60%, up 0.2 percentage points [63] Crude Oil Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, total US crude oil inventories stood at 824 million barrels, a decrease of 5.791 million barrels (-0.70%) from the previous week [71] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were 84.44, 77.76, and 82.95 USD per barrel respectively as of August 22, 2025 [95][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Oil prices are fluctuating around the US - Russia meeting, with a slight rebound due to oversold recovery, but pressured by high South American oil production. PX supply has recovered with new plant launches and restarts, and it has strong bottom support due to low inventory. Its future profitability depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing due to PTA demand, but PTA downstream开工 has a strong downward expectation [2]. - PTA supply has a mix of restarts and maintenance. Spot prices rose slightly with the market, but with low processing fees, new plant launch expectations on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's hard to have a trend - upward market. It will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are stable. Supply - side starts are at a low level, with local shortages of spot goods. Downstream procurement is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.96/barrel (up 0.13%), Brent at $66.63/barrel (up 0.06%), naphtha at $568/ton (down 0.44%), isomeric xylene at $690.5/ton (up 0.15%), and PX CFR China Main Port at $833.67/ton (up 0.24%) [1]. - **PTA**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE TA main contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), settled at 4,718 yuan/ton (up 0.21%); spot PTA in China was 4,698 yuan/ton (up 0.58%); CCFEI PTA domestic index was 4,705 yuan/ton (up 0.21%), and the foreign index was $625/ton (up 0.48%) on August 11 [1]. - **PX**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PX main contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.80%), settled at 6,808 yuan/ton (up 0.56%); domestic PX spot was 6,708 yuan/ton (up 0.04%) on August 11 [1]. - **PR**: On August 12, 2025, CZCE PR main contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.51%), settled at 5,954 yuan/ton (up 0.27%); polyester bottle - chip in East China and South China markets remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton and 5,950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 12, 2025, CCFEI polyester fiber DTY index was 8,625 yuan/ton (up 0.29%), POY remained stable at 7,125 yuan/ton, FDY68D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), FDY150D was 7,100 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), short - fiber was 6,495 yuan/ton (up 0.23%), polyester chip was 5,880 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), and bottle - grade chip remained stable at 5,910 yuan/ton [2]. Spread Information - On August 11, 2025, PXN spread was $265.67/ton (up 1.72%), PX - MX spread was $143.17/ton (up 0.70%) [1]. - On August 12, 2025, PTA near - far month spread remained at - 18 yuan/ton, PTA basis was - 21 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), PX basis was - 124 yuan/ton (down 51 yuan), PR basis in East China was - 54 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and in South China was - 14 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [1] Operation Rate and Sales Rate - On August 12, 2025, PX operation rate was 78.11%, PTA factory load rate was 76.56%, polyester factory load rate was 86.88% (down 0.21%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms load rate was 57.83% [1]. - On August 12, 2025, polyester filament sales rate was 42% (down 1%), polyester short - fiber sales rate was 58% (up 7%), and polyester chip sales rate was 115% (up 18%) [1] Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. Trading Strategy - After price corrections, the TA2509 contract closed at 4,726 yuan/ton (up 0.38%) with a trading volume of 367,400 lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 6,832 yuan/ton (up 0.92%) with a trading volume of 68,800 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 5,964 yuan/ton (up 0.44%) with a trading volume of 17,000 lots. Without unexpected positive news, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for asphalt is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The demand for asphalt is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly [1]. Recently, the crude oil price has started to oscillate and decline, weakening the cost - side support for asphalt, which has a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures and spot markets. The supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with inventory at a low level and no significant signs of inventory accumulation. The short - term market surplus pressure is limited, but the market sentiment is mediocre. Without the influence of cost - side factors, the fundamental driving force for asphalt is limited. If the oil price continues to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 11th, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 221,001 lots, a decrease of 611 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,843 lots, an increase of 5,523 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,530 - 3,970 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,540 - 3,630 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Shandong, and South China markets decreased yesterday, while the price in the North China market increased slightly, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]