| W | ICE轻质低硫原油 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | T.IPE | | | | | 59.11 | 昨结 | 59.78 | 开盘 | 59.88 | | -0.67 | -1.12% 总手 | 7191 | 现手 | 18 | | 最高价 | 60.00 持 | 8.78万 | 外 盟 | 3082 | | 最低价 | 59.11 壇 仓 | -661 | 内 盟 | 4109 | | स्त्रम् सर्वे | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | | | | | ෆ加 | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 60.45 | | | 1.12% 卖1 59.19 | 1 | | | | | 买1 59.17 11:25 59.18 | 2 1 | | | | | 11:30 59.19 | 1 | | 59.78 | | | 0.00% 11:32 59.19 | 10 | | | | | 11:35 59.19 | 2 | | | | | 11:36 59.12 | 1 | | | 当前为延时代情获取实时行情 | | 11:36 ...

继上一轮压线下调后，今晚过后成品油价将迎来"两连跌"。 本轮调价后，私家车主和物流企业出行成本将进一步降低。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私 家车计算，本次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花2元左右；按市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型，平均每行 驶一百公里费用减少0.3元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃油 费用将减少2元左右。 本轮调价周期内，国际原油价格呈现跌后反弹趋势，但整体均价依然下行。据金联创分析师王延婷介 绍，计价周期前期，市场关注新一轮俄乌问题会谈，俄乌局势或迎拐点的预期导致油价承压。但地缘政 治局势并未真正缓解，一方面美俄高层会谈未达成解决乌克兰问题的折中方案，市场预计美国和欧洲针 对俄罗斯原油出口的制裁措施短期内无法取消。另外，委内瑞拉局势方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体 发文称，委内瑞拉上空及周边空域"被视为全面关闭"。 而在市场供应方面，王延婷表示，石油输出国组织欧佩克（OPEC）近日发表声明，OPEC+8个主要产 油国决定维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年一季度暂停增产。市场资源供应减少预期支撑下，原油 价格震荡反弹，但上涨幅度有限，整体均价依然走低 ...

新华财经北京12月5日电本计价周期（2025年11月24日24时至2025年12月8日24时）以来，国际原油呈现 窄幅波动行情，变化率处于负值低位运行，第9个工作日计算后的下调幅度在55元／吨，略高于国家发 改委50元／吨的成品油调价红线。距离调价窗口还有一个工作日，国际原油有望呈现偏强走势，下周一 （12月8日）24时，国内成品油零售限价预计下调与搁浅概率并存。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据据卓创资讯分析师曹莹莹介绍，本计价周期以来，地缘溢价继续存在，对原油价格形成支撑，但季节 性需求淡季背景下，基本面相对偏弱拖累原油价格走势。欧洲局势继续扰动，但美国石油累库，市场多 选择观望，且感恩节假期交投清淡，因此本周期国际原油价格窄幅波动，对应原油变化率在负值低位运 行。据卓创资讯测算，截至12月4日收盘，国内第9个工作日参考原油变化率-1.26%，预计汽柴油下调55 元／吨，调价窗口12月8日24时。 "预计本轮成品油零售限价压线下调与搁浅并存，按当前测算下调幅度计算，折合升价，汽、柴油下调 幅度或在0.04元／升左右，对于广大消费者而言，加满一箱50升的92号汽油，预计将节省2元左右，消 费者用油成本变化有限。" ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

成文日期: 20251201 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点： 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡态势,整体跟随国际原油波动节 奏。本周主要影响因素为欧佩克逐步放松减产,沙特等产油国剩余 产能释放,中质含硫原油供应增加,对燃料油供应形成支撑,后续 随着炼厂检修结束或进一步增长。俄罗斯作为高硫燃料油第一大生 产国,受美国制裁加码及乌克兰无人机袭击影响,炼厂开工率下滑, 但 11 月高硫燃料油发货量预计 221 万吨,环比增加 35 万吨,供应 呈现恢复迹象;乌克兰参与新一轮和平谈判,若局势缓和或推动俄 罗斯供应进一步增长。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2501 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价下跌 1 元/吨,跌幅为 0.04%。本周最高价为 2522 元/吨,最 低价为 2426 元/吨，成交量为 2548897 手．持仓量为 201892 手， 减少 21702 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 WTI原油期货从58.40美元一线上扬至59.20美元，跌幅收窄至0.3%。 俄罗斯总统普京表示，将加强对乌 克兰港口的打击力度。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

价格方面来看，受原油价格震荡走低，国内成品油需求表现欠佳等因素影响，11月下旬汽、柴油批发市 场价格整体呈现出震荡下滑走势。但是由于部分地区资源依旧偏紧，因此市场价格下跌幅度受限。零售 价格调整方面，11月24日24时，国内成品油零售限价经历下调，因此在汽、柴油批发价格降幅有限，零 售价格下调的情况下，11月下旬国内汽、柴油批零价差整体收窄，仅地炼柴油价格微幅扩大。 11月下旬，国际原油价格整体呈现出震荡下行走势，市场观望情绪浓厚，业者进购意愿低迷。叠加国内 柴油需求整体表现欠佳，抵消了来自供应端趋紧的影响，因此贸易企业下旬多消化库存为主，大单进购 操作减少。预计12月贸易企业柴油库容率或环比继续下降。 据卓创资讯对沿海以及内江周边30家社会贸易企业调研发现，截至2025年11月27日，国内成品油贸易企 业柴油库存占库容的比重在29.93%，较中旬降低0.16个百分点，同比增加0.04个百分点。 分析来看，11月下旬，原油价格整体呈现出震荡下行趋势，受此影响，国内成品油零售限价于11月24日 24时经历下调后，新周期的原油变化率仍处于负值范围内，国内市场观望情绪持续浓厚，业者对后市缺 乏信心，进购意愿低迷。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the near future due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakened cost support [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. New capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1][4] - As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient, mainly for rigid demand [1][4] - In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years. The cost support weakened as the crude oil price dropped [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,694 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,742 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,699 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.61%. The position volume decreased by 1,873 lots to 495,726 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 80 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 27, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory. The packaging film orders also increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week - on - week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at $730/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Views - The investment view on asphalt is that it will fluctuate, with high supply and declining demand, and the overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [3] - The trading strategy suggests a single - sided approach with a fluctuating outlook and no arbitrage opportunities [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.25 million tons, a 18% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. Different production entities showed different trends. This week, the asphalt supply contracted due to device shutdowns and conversions, and the supply - demand structure improved [3] - **Demand**: This week, the overall asphalt demand weakened. Although the shipment volume in Shandong increased, the overall demand was still declining. As some terminal projects ended, the demand further weakened, and the weak demand was a significant negative factor for prices [3] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic asphalt inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. The inventory is expected to continue to decline next week, and the supply - demand pattern will further improve [3] - **Cost**: This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated. Geopolitical factors first pushed up oil prices, and then the news of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a partial decline in oil prices. The price fluctuated with limited upward momentum [3] 2. Price - The report presents historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [5][8] 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC * 6.35)) and asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 - 2025 [12][13] - **Basis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong from 2024 - 2025 [14] 4. Supply - **Production Forecast**: It shows the monthly production and production forecast of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in regions such as North China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [17][21] - **Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of capacity utilization of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 - 2025 [29][33] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 - 2025 [40] 5. Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt production gross margin in Shandong from 2021 - 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt**: It shows the price, premium, and port inventory trends of diluted asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [47][48] 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 - 2025 [52][55] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [58] 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt shipment volume in regions such as China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 - 2025 [61] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the historical trends of operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 - 2025 [63][70]