Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current situation and future trends [2][3][4] - Overall, the market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated. Saudi Aramco cut the official price premium of crude oil sold to Asia in December, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter is gradually materializing. Geopolitical factors have a limited impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of price decline this year [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight fuel oil followed crude oil in a weak downward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continued to widen. The short - term cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened, but the continuous upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the price spread between the two is expected to expand further [22] - **Asphalt**: Northern construction is gradually coming to an end, while the south still has demand for rush - repair work. The fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market's bearish sentiment is deepening, with prices continuing to decline [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The improvement in chemical profit has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion demand. However, with the weakening upward trend of international oil prices and the lack of strong support factors, the LPG main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Some US economic data are still missing, and the government shutdown has brought uncertainty to the economy and Fed policy. The precious metals market is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices were blocked at the MA20 moving average. The domestic copper market trading rhythm resonates with the stock market. There are differences in domestic social inventory statistics. It is advisable to wait and see, expecting the previous upward momentum to cool down [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum prices declined. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased while that of aluminum rods increased. The market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance from fundamentals. It is in a short - term volatile and slightly upward trend, but it is not advisable to chase the rise [5] - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the de - stocking pace has slowed. The external market has limited upward momentum, but the spot resources overseas are still tight. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to decline. The cost support for Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter has further strengthened, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [8] - **Lead**: LME lead inventory continued to decline, supporting the price above $2000. The domestic lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost still supports Shanghai lead. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was dull. Downstream demand is weak. The price support from the upstream is weakening, and Shanghai nickel is expected to run weakly with a downward - shifting center of gravity [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices oscillated. The tin market is in a game between short - to - medium - term supply shortages and long - term stable upstream supply growth. It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The spot price decline has slowed down, but the discount transaction continues. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the price will run weakly with limited rebound space [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. It will continue to follow the aluminum price and is difficult to have an independent market [6] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The supply and demand were both strong, and the total inventory decreased. The futures price strengthened, and it is expected to show a short - term strong and volatile trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded significantly, and the market sentiment improved. The supply side has obvious contraction characteristics due to production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season. The industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term disk will continue to oscillate [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rebounded due to continuous price corrections and increased production - cut expectations. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern, and the actual production - cut intensity needs to be tracked [14] - **Plastics and Related Products** - **PP, PE, and Propylene**: The supply of propylene is generally abundant, and the downstream demand support is weak. The cost support for polyethylene has declined, and the downstream demand is average. The overall market performance is average [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC continues to accumulate inventory and runs at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is declining. Caustic soda oscillated slightly stronger, but the downstream demand is general, and it runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: PX supply has recovered, while the overall load of PTA has decreased. The market is boosted by the news that PTA may increase production cuts. In the medium term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the raw material price increase transmission may be blocked [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply is expected to grow, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but the raw material price increase may squeeze profits. The demand for bottle chips has weakened, and the processing margin is under pressure [33] Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand and production of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the demand expectation is still pessimistic. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the short - term price may still fluctuate [15] - **Iron Ore**: Overnight iron ore futures prices oscillated weakly. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices oscillated upward during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase for coke. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Both prices oscillated strongly. The demand from molten iron production remains high. The price of manganese silicon is likely to oscillate upward, and ferrosilicon demand is generally good, with a similar price trend [19][20] - **Glass**: Glass prices oscillated. Some production lines in Shahe stopped production, and the inventory decreased. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The short - term downward space is limited [34] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Night - session US soybean prices led to a decline in domestic prices. The import cost of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected that domestic soybean inventory will decrease in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Overnight US soybean prices dropped sharply. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased. Attention should be paid to whether palm oil can stabilize at this stage [38] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply - side positive factors for rapeseed meal still prevail, and the strategy of going long on rapeseed meal is maintained. The view on rapeseed oil has changed from bearish to wait - and - see, focusing on the marginal changes in imports [39] - **Corn**: Night - session Dalian corn futures continued to run strongly. The supply of new corn in the Northeast has increased at a slower pace, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The import tax rate of US corn has changed, and attention should be paid to the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is weakly stable, and the futures price is consolidating at a low level after a rebound. The later supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [42] - **Eggs**: The near - month futures contract of eggs hit a new high, and the far - month contract is mainly consolidating. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices declined. Brazilian cotton exports increased year - on - year. The new cotton cost provides some support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see for now [44] - **Sugar**: Overnight US sugar prices oscillated. The international sugar supply is relatively abundant, and the domestic market is focusing on the new - season production estimate [45] - **Apples**: Apple futures prices oscillated widely. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, but the quality is poor, and the selling sentiment is strong. A bearish strategy is recommended [46] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: The futures price is running weakly. The low inventory provides strong support, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [47] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the demand is average. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose with heavy volume yesterday, and futures contracts all rose. The short - term market will mainly oscillate and consolidate. It is advisable to focus on technology - growth stocks and appropriately allocate cyclical and consumer sectors [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may have an impact on the US budget deficit. The domestic bond market is in a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk announced a price increase for December freight rates, setting a reference benchmark. The 12 - contract valuation upper limit is emerging, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound fluctuations [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main influencing factors include the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the change in domestic aquaculture demand season, and potential changes in the Sino - Canadian trade relationship [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2500 - 2560 range - bound oscillation. Factors influencing it include soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, low inventory, and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relationship [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short - term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From October 29 to November 6, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3017 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 to 2650, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 517 to 442 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 29 to November 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2601) increased from 2373 to 2549, and the price of the far - month contract 2605 increased from 2330 to 2416. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2650 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From October 28 to November 6, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4050 to 2755 [16]. - **Import and Inventory**: In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained low [22][24][26]. - **Aquaculture Production and Prices**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, showing a bullish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2512 down 3.91% and the far - month contracts down 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index decreased by 7.9% week - on - week, weakening the freight rate support. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Although mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November and Maersk's price support in mid - and late October was successful, the freight rate market is affected by multiple factors. The current freight rate market is greatly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - EC2512 main contract closed at 1848.200, down 75.2; EC2602 (secondary main) closed at 1601, down 30.4. The spread between EC2512 - EC2602 was 247.20, down 46.80; the spread between EC2512 - EC2604 was 670.20, down 76.20. The EC contract basis was - 639.49, up 97.80. The main contract's open interest was 28412 hands, down 5660 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1208.71, down 104.00; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1107.32, up 159.83. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1550.70, up 147.24. Container ship capacity was 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1021.39, up 28.65; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1323.81, up 30.69. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2003.00, down 45.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1793.00, down 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 26482.00, up 2605.00 [1]. Industry News - China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping the additional tariffs on some US - made imports announced on March 4, continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate, etc. [1] - The US federal government's "shutdown" has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points, and if the stalemate continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irrecoverable [1]. - EU climate ministers reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% with flexibility, and member states can offset up to 5% of the emission reduction tasks by purchasing international carbon credits [1]. Key Data to Watch - November 7: China's October export year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), China's October import year - on - year rate in US dollars (to be determined), US October unemployment rate (to be determined), US October seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls (in ten thousand people) (to be determined), Germany's September seasonally adjusted trade balance (in billion euros) at 15:00, and the preliminary value of the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index at 23:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices rising significantly and aiming to challenge the 4000 mark, following a recent adjustment phase [1][6][11]. Market Performance - Gold prices surged by 60 USD, reaching around 3985 before a profit-taking phase for short positions occurred [1]. - A deep V reversal was noted in today's trading, indicating a strong recovery after a decline [5]. - The market is currently facing resistance at the 4000 level, with potential upward movement towards 4030 [7][8]. Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]. - Positive economic indicators, including unexpected job growth and better-than-expected PMI data, have also influenced gold prices [12]. - Upcoming unemployment data is expected to provide further insights into the labor market and may impact Federal Reserve policy expectations [13]. Investment Strategy - The current market is in a high-level adjustment phase, with key levels to watch for potential short positions at 4000 and 4030, while long positions may be considered at 3963 and 3928 [11]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points for investment success, highlighting the need for experience and risk management [13]. Geopolitical Context - The global environment is marked by increasing geopolitical tensions, which are contributing to the rise in gold and U.S. Treasury prices [16].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. After the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, the market showed profit - taking. Although the geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, as the geopolitical sentiment was gradually digested, the contract maintained a weak and volatile trend on Tuesday night, with the price slightly down 0.19% to 464.3 yuan/barrel, and is likely to continue this trend on Wednesday [5]. Summary by Related Content Time - period and Trend Description - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all described as "weak and volatile", with an overall view of "weak operation" [1]. Price Calculation and Trend Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a "drop", 0 - 1% a "weak and volatile" decline, 0 - 1% increase a "strong and volatile" rise, and an increase greater than 1% a "rise". The "strong/weak and volatile" definition only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. Market Driving Logic - After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the positive sentiment from the macro factors was digested, and the driving force of macro factors weakened, leading to profit - taking. The geopolitical conflict in South America boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. As the geopolitical sentiment was digested, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed slightly lower on Tuesday night and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant changes in the global landscape, emphasizing the uncertainty and unpredictability of future events, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic shifts [5][6][13] - It highlights the historical context of major geopolitical conflicts and their impact on economic centers, noting that such conflicts can lead to new markets and opportunities for growth [7][8] - The article stresses the importance of companies adapting their strategies to global changes, with examples of successful businesses that have diversified their operations internationally to mitigate risks [9][10] Group 2 - Companies are encouraged to focus on customer needs rather than merely competing with rivals, suggesting that understanding and addressing customer demands can lead to a competitive advantage [11][12] - The article provides examples of companies that have successfully navigated challenges by innovating and aligning their products with customer expectations, such as IKEA and ASML [10][11] - It emphasizes the necessity for businesses to establish research and development centers globally to better understand diverse customer bases and foster innovation [12] Group 3 - The article categorizes events into three types: certain events, predictable events based on past experiences, and completely unpredictable events, stressing the need for companies to prepare for uncertainty [13][14] - It discusses the concept of "capital" in business, defining it as both financial resources and the capabilities of entrepreneurs to manage and utilize those resources effectively [21][20] - The importance of having a solid financial foundation and skilled management is highlighted as essential for companies to survive and thrive in uncertain environments [21][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures mostly declined on Thursday, with the main contract EC2512 rising 0.15% and the far - month contracts falling between 1% - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index increased by 172.33 points from last week, a 15.1% week - on - week increase. Spot index gains may support short - term freight rate increases. Trade war situation improvement, geopolitical conflict reaching a substantial easing inflection point, and leading shipping companies announcing November freight rate increases have led to a rapid recovery in futures prices. The fourth - quarter shipping peak season also has an impact. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1843.800, EC secondary main contract closing price: 1583, a 15.60 decline; EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 260.80, a 4.20 decline; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 667.90, an 8.70 decline; EC contract basis: - 531.09, a 27.20 increase; EC main contract open interest: 30114, a 1792 decline [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1312.71, a 172.33 increase; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 863.46, a 14.34 decline; SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1403.46, a 93.14 increase; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, no change; CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 992.74, a 19.63 increase; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1293.12, a 25.21 increase; Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1961.00, an 11.00 decline; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1885.00, a 19.00 increase; average charter price (Panama - type ship): 17564.00, no change; average charter price (Cape - type ship): 23582.00, a 103.00 increase [1] 3.3 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% early today, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1. The US Senate passed a bill to end the national emergency used by the Trump administration to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but the House Republican leadership has blocked a vote on overturning the tariff until next March [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - October 31: US September core PCE price index annual rate (TBD), Japan September unemployment rate (07:30), China October official manufacturing PMI (09:30), France October CPI monthly rate preliminary value (15:45), Eurozone October CPI annual rate preliminary value (18:00) [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [3]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total gold demand [3]. - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with holdings increasing by 222 tons in Q3, translating to $26 billion in investment [3]. Group 2: China Market Performance - In contrast, China's gold demand showed a decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons in Q3, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [6]. - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with outflows of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million) in Q3, ending a three-quarter inflow trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in China grew by 11% to 168.8 billion RMB (about $23.7 billion) due to rising gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cumulatively, central banks bought 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical factors are on the rise, leading to an upward correction in oil prices. However, due to the repeated attitude of Trump and macro - instability, there is a risk of a sudden decline, so participation should be cautious. In the medium - term, geopolitical factors continuously cause disturbances, making it difficult to grasp the trading rhythm. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on price rallies due to the oversupply issue, with the WTI price expected to fluctuate between $55 - 65 [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From October 20th to 24th, international oil prices rebounded significantly. WTI returned above $60. As of October 24th, WTI settled at $61.5/barrel (+6.92%), Brent at $65.94/barrel (+8.08%), and INE SC at 466.2 yuan/barrel (+6.17%) [7]. - Various price - related data such as cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, and financial attribute data of crude oil are presented, showing different percentage changes [10]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - Trump's remarks eased market pessimism. As of October 24th, the S&P 500 index recovered after last week's decline, and the VIX volatility fell to a low level [12]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility rebounded, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of October 24th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 38.7, and the US dollar index was 98.9417 [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC - Related Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in September, rising by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. Most countries started to increase production, and the eight core OPEC+ countries accelerated their production increase [19]. - According to the IEA, the production of 9 OPEC member countries increased by 760,000 barrels per day in September. The overall over - production of these 9 countries decreased compared to the previous month, and the core 7 countries postponed their compensation cuts to the first half of next year [23]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day in September. Iran's production also increased month - on - month, rising by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day [26]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - OPEC data shows that Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day. IEA data shows a production of 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With increasing sanctions, Russia's production may remain at a relatively low level [34]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Supply - As of the week of October 24th, the number of active US oil rigs was 420, an increase of 2 from the previous month and a decrease of 60 year - on - year. The efficiency improvement in drilling and wells allows producers to maintain high - level production while controlling capital expenditure [38]. - As of the week of October 17th, US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. High oil prices since June have boosted production enthusiasm [40]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the week of October 17th, the total daily demand for US refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 288,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. End - of - year demand may improve slightly [44]. - In the four - week period ending on October 17th, the average daily demand for US gasoline decreased by 126,000 barrels to 8.587 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The average daily demand for distillates increased by 28,000 barrels to 4.011 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The average daily consumption of kerosene - type products increased by 55,000 barrels to 1.712 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [48]. - As of October 24th, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $39.43/barrel. The crack spreads of gasoline and heating oil showed different trends [52]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 24th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.12/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.99/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better due to low inventory and restocking demand [56]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+6.75%), and imports increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+3.87%). Currently, China's oil demand is in the off - season, with processing volume, imports, and refinery operating rates declining [60]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 1.1 million barrels per day (up), 0.7 million barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.1 million, 0.7 million, and 1.4 million barrels per day [64]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of October 17th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels to 422.82 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. SPR inventories increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.56 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels [65]. - As of the four - week period ending on October 17th, US crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day to 1.715 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate increased by 2.9 percentage points to 88.6% [69]. - As of October 24th, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.54/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.37/barrel. The WTI spread maintained a back structure [71]. 4.2 Brent Spread - As of October 24th, the Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.74/barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.98/barrel. The Brent spread also maintained a back structure, stronger than the WTI spread due to supply concerns in Europe [74]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - According to the EIA's October report, in 2025, the global daily oil supply is 105.85 million barrels, and the daily demand is 103.99 million barrels, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which is an increase from the previous month. The supply - demand surplus pattern is clear this year [78]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamentals indicate the arrival of the off - season, and the term structure continues to flatten. Brent may maintain a stronger contango structure due to geopolitical supply concerns. However, if OPEC accelerates production in the near - term as the peak - season demand weakens, the term structure may change [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is relatively optimistic due to positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations, and there are expectations for the summit at the end of the month. Geopolitically, the US may increase sanctions on Russia, causing market concerns. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state, with SC2512 operating in the range of 465 - 475, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2512 Fundamentals**: After the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade talks, Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with China. The US may impose additional sanctions on Russia. US energy companies increased oil and gas rig numbers for the second consecutive week since September. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 24, Oman crude oil spot price was $69.03 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $68.71 per barrel, with a basis of 51.07 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17. EIA inventory decreased by 0.961 million barrels in the week ending October 17, against an expected increase of 1.205 million barrels. Cushing region inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels in the week ending October 17. As of October 24, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is above the average, with a neutral assessment [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions. As of October 21, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: After the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade talks, Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with China. The US Treasury Secretary expects the agreement to postpone China's export control expansion on rare earth minerals and magnets and avoid new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the US Trade Representative's Office has launched a new tariff investigation against China, and China has strongly opposed it [5]. - **US Economic Data**: US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected, with the Fed likely to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. In September, CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year, while economists predicted 0.4% and 3.1% respectively. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month in September [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and potential increase in sanctions on Russia [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increase [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, while there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $65.99 to $65.20, a decrease of 1.20%. WTI crude oil decreased from $61.79 to $61.50, a decrease of 0.47%. SC crude oil increased from 454.0 to 466.2, an increase of 2.69%. Oman crude oil increased from $68.16 to $68.31, an increase of 0.22% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $65.98 to $67.04, an increase of 1.61%. WTI increased from $61.79 to $61.50, a decrease of 0.47%. Oman crude oil increased from $68.10 to $69.03, an increase of 1.37%. Shengli crude oil increased from $61.25 to $62.40, an increase of 1.88%. Dubai crude oil increased from $68.21 to $69.05, an increase of 1.23% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17. EIA inventory decreased by 0.961 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 21, the net long position was 52,521, a decrease of 57,085 [19].