| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 1115.000 | | -35.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1756.3 | -24.30↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -641.30 | | -3.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | -552.00 | -6.00↓ | | EC合约基差 5.49 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 29314 | | -110.43↓ -3117↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1120.49 | | -134.43↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 921.25 | -272.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1114.52 | | -83.69↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | 0.04↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1087.41 | | -32.82↓ ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 ...

地缘冲突再升温，成本带动LPG走强 LPG周报 2025年9月28日 姓名：肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 联系电话： 0531-81678601 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询： 丙烷CP预期均价为544美元/吨，较上期跌4美元/吨，环比下跌0.73%；丁烷CP预期均价为524美元 /吨，较上期跌4美元/吨，环比降幅 0.76%；丙烷CFR华南均价587美元/吨，较上期跌7美元/吨，环比跌1.18%；丁烷CFR华南均价567美元/吨，较上期跌7美元/吨，环比跌 1.22%。 周内有生产企业如期开工，国内液化气供应量小幅增长。本期液化气商品量53.92万吨，较上期增加0.07万吨，增幅0.13%。国 内液化气市场需求预期提升。国庆假期将至，节前下游仍有补货需求，且节日将提振燃烧消费。 化工领域中，烯烃与烷烃深加工方面均有 装置计划开工，包括一套烷基化装置和三套PDH装置，醚后碳四、丙烷需求均有望增长。 逻辑与观点 PART 01 LPG行情回顾 请务 ...

—第268期 地缘冲突影响再现，油价偏强震荡 中泰期货股份有限公司 肖海明 从业资格号：F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0018001 中泰期货 2025年9月28日 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 原油周度思考 目 录 CONTENTS 03 02 05 04 01 核心指标及观点 价格基础数据 世界原油供需 中国及美国油品供需 金融核心数据 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 0 01 核心指标及观点 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 原油核心指标及观点-1.1本周重点事件回顾 一、本周重点事件回顾： 基本面： 1、美国至9月19日当周API原油库存-382.1万桶，前值-342万桶。 2、9月24日讯，阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至9月22日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1492.2万 桶，较一周前增加183.3万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加62.8万桶至667.6万桶，中质馏分油库存减少3.3万桶至161.8万桶，重 质残渣燃料油库存增加123.8万桶至662.8万桶。 3、EIA报告：09月19日当周美国原油出口减少79.3万桶/日至448.4万桶/日；09月19日当周美国国内原油产量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

当市场聚焦美联储降息路径时，黄金正处关键十字路口——一边是经济数据与美元走强施压宽松预期，另一边是地缘冲突与逢低买盘筑底支撑。本周核心通 胀报告即将揭晓，一场由PCE数据主导的多空大战一触即发。 经济数据冲击市场逻辑，美元黄金拉锯加剧 终极审判日：PCE通胀数据定调短期走势 市场焦点转向美国8月核心PCE物价指数——美联储最青睐的通胀指标。市场预期该数据环比上升0.3%、同比上升2.7%。若通胀高于预期，将强化"高利率维 持更久"的预期，对黄金构成显著压力；反之，温和数据将巩固降息信念，推动金价突破当前震荡区间。白银创14年新高、铂金创12年新高的表现，亦印证 贵金属板块整体热度未减。 ETO Markets 观点 黄金当前处于"跷跷板"中枢：一端是美元走强与经济数据压力，另一端是地缘风险与降息预期支撑。在PCE数据揭晓前，市场情绪趋于谨慎。投资者需密切 关注数据表现、美联储官员讲话及地缘局势动态，这场由通胀数据引爆的风暴，将决定黄金下一阶段走势的清晰路线图。 美国第二季度GDP上修至3.8%（前值3.3%）及初请失业金人数降至21.8万人的超预期表现，推动美元指数飙升至三周高位。强势美元对黄金形成直接压力， ...

季度报告——原油 过剩预期待验证，地缘冲突添变数 和 中国原油进口量和加工量小幅增长，汽柴油消费量增长仍受到新 能源替代的负面影响。持续释放的补库需求对实际需求增长不足 形成一定的弥补作用。OECD 原油和石油产品库存较低，暂未出 现持续累库，说明过剩的风险暂未兑现。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 原油：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 9 | 年 | 月 | 25 | 日 | ★投资建议 [★Table_Summary] OPEC+坚定维护市场份额，实际增产是否达标有待观察 供应端未来的变化预计仍是定价主导因素，需求端暂时缺乏增长 潜力显著提升的驱动。OPEC+维持增产政策，但若未来实际增量 仍不及目标，将削弱供应增量对市场的冲击。非 OPEC+供应中 南美增产预计逐步兑现，低油价对美国页岩油增产起到持续抑制 作用。市场对于供应增长已有预期，但库存尚未明显累积表明过 剩风险待验证。地缘冲突有较多变数，俄罗斯供应稳定性预计将 是接下来地缘冲突交易重点。在供应偏宽松的预期没有被扭转 前，布伦特油价预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,790 per ounce, is driven by three key factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and weakening dollar credibility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Since August 2025, U.S. inflation data has eased, leading to a market expectation of over 90% for a rate cut in September. Historically, gold performs strongly during rate cut cycles. Concerns over potential manipulation of Fed policies have also led to a loss of confidence in the dollar, driving funds towards gold as a safe haven [4]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East, along with uncertainties surrounding U.S. election policies, have directly contributed to the rise in gold prices [5]. - **Weakening Dollar Credibility**: The U.S. national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, significantly surpassing market expectations. Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for ten consecutive months, marking a shift where gold's share in reserves has surpassed that of the euro [7]. Group 2: Investment Options for Individuals - **Gold ETFs**: These have low entry barriers and high liquidity, such as the Huaan Gold ETF (code 518880), which is directly linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 spot contracts. The advantages include a minimum investment of 1 gram and low transaction fees of 0.04%, with T+0 trading support. However, short-term price fluctuations can be influenced by market sentiment [10]. - **Physical Gold**: Suitable for long-term holding, options include bank gold bars, gold accumulation plans, and branded gold jewelry. It's important to note that jewelry often carries a high premium (approximately 15% processing fee), and recovery may involve discounts. Accumulation gold is recommended for dollar-cost averaging [12]. - **Gold Stocks**: These offer high volatility and potential for significant returns, represented by companies like Western Gold and Huayu Mining. However, they are subject to broader market performance and company-specific factors, leading to greater price fluctuations compared to gold itself [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - **Avoiding High Prices**: Current gold prices are at historical highs, and short-term corrections may occur due to Federal Reserve policy changes or easing geopolitical tensions. For instance, gold prices fell from $3,500 to $3,120 in April 2024, a decline of 11% [17]. - **Gradual Investment**: Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy through regular investments in gold ETFs or accumulation gold can help smooth out purchase costs, such as investing $500 monthly [18]. - **Dynamic Adjustments**: If gold prices exceed $4,000, partial profit-taking may be advisable while maintaining a core position. It is recommended to limit gold allocation to 5%-10% of total household assets rather than making concentrated bets [19].

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London gold spot prices hitting $3748.88 per ounce and New York futures surpassing $3770 per ounce on September 22, 2023 [2] - As of September 23, 2023, gold prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $3759.16 per ounce and Shanghai gold trading at 850 yuan per gram [2] - Since 2025, international gold prices have increased by nearly 43%, while domestic gold prices have risen approximately 38% [3] Group 2 - The primary driver of rising gold prices is the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a weaker dollar and a potential upward trend in gold prices [6][7] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern tensions, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8] - Central banks around the world have significantly increased their gold reserves, with global central bank purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, nearly double the previous decade's average [11] Group 3 - The current economic environment, characterized by a weak U.S. labor market and ongoing geopolitical tensions, supports a favorable outlook for gold prices [14] - Investment strategies for ordinary investors include diversifying into gold through paper gold or gold ETFs, rather than purchasing physical gold due to high storage and transaction costs [18][20] - Silver prices have also reached a near 14-year high, with prices hitting $43.788 per ounce on September 22, 2023 [23]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-24原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期多空分析 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线下方；中性 1.基本面：俄罗斯能源部副部长表示，如有必要，可能会进一步限制燃料出口，俄罗斯已将汽油出口 禁令延长至9月底，当局表示，如果汽油短缺问题持续存在，限制措施可能会延长至10月；伊拉克库尔 德斯坦恢复石油出口的协议陷入停滞，由于两家关键生产商要求债务偿还担保，伊拉克库尔德斯坦地 区至土耳其的输油管道石油出口仍未重启；偏多 2.基差：9月23日，阿曼原油现货价为68.61元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.48元/桶，基差35.01元/ 桶，现货升水 ...