Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums. The tight - balance pattern of supply remains unchanged, domestic demand has resilience but high prices suppress restocking flexibility, and overseas demand is weak. The probability of a September interest rate cut indicated by CME interest rate futures has risen to 90%, and the weakening dollar provides support, but the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk may cause emotional fluctuations [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 11, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton or 0.74% from August 8. The spot premium strengthened, with the premium of premium copper rising from 160 yuan/ton on August 8 to 230 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper also expanding to 110 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 month spread narrowed to - 69.55 dollars/ton but remained in a deep contango range [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest increased by 3,820 lots to 267,065 lots on August 8, which may reflect some short - covering. The SHFE inventory on August 11 was 155,700 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. The LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons to 23,275 tons in a single week, increasing the overseas visible inventory pressure [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Part of the El Teniente copper mine under Codelco was approved to restart, but four mining areas remained closed due to a collapse accident, and the annual output recovery needs observation. Chifeng Gold's Laos SND project disclosed 131.5 million tons of copper - gold ore resources, but it is in the resource exploration stage and is difficult to contribute to short - term supply. Chile's copper export value in July decreased slightly by 0.4% year - on - year. Combined with the transformation of Baiyin Nonferrous's copper concentrate warehouse, the raw material supply for domestic smelting has been enhanced, and refined copper supply tends to be loose [3]. - **需求端**: Copper processing enterprises in North China maintained stable operation, but the high price of 79,000 yuan/ton suppressed downstream purchasing flexibility. The spot market showed a game between "holders holding up prices" and "rigid - demand buyers pressing down prices", and there were no obvious peak - season characteristics in terminal consumption. Overseas, the continuous contango of LME indicated insufficient overseas demand [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation: LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons, COMEX inventory slightly increased to 264,140 short tons, while SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in China's bonded area was not disclosed, but the closed import window suppressed the customs declaration volume, and the sustainability of short - term destocking was questionable [5]. Market Summary - Short - term judgment: The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, mainly driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM 1 copper premium copper price on August 11 was 79,190 yuan/ton with a premium of 230 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively from August 8. The flat - water copper premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The wet - process copper premium remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) spread was - 82 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton. The LME price was 9,727 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars/ton. The LME inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The SHFE inventory was 155,700 tons, down 150 tons. The COMEX inventory was 265,196 short tons, up 1,056 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 11, Codelco was approved to partially restart the El Teniente copper mine, with four mining areas near the collapse accident site remaining closed [9]. - On August 10, the unaffected areas of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine were approved to resume operation by the Chilean labor department [9]. - On August 8, Chifeng Gold announced new copper - gold ore resources in its Laos SND project, but it is in the exploration stage [9]. - On August 8, Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [10]. - On August 7, Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of its copper concentrate warehouse, which will improve storage and transportation efficiency [10]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][13][14]

Group 1 - Ukraine's armed forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery in Russia, which is a key fuel infrastructure responsible for supplying oil products to the Russian military, with an annual processing capacity of 7 million tons of crude oil [3][4] - The attack resulted in explosions and fires at the refinery, and a drone also crashed in a residential area, causing one death and damage to several buildings [3][4] - The strike on the Saratov refinery follows a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, which has a crude oil processing capacity of approximately 340,000 barrels per day [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is expected to focus on short-term goals such as ceasefire agreements, which may lead to temporary emotional reactions in major asset classes like gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar [5][6] - If substantial breakthroughs are achieved in the discussions regarding sanctions on Russia, it could have significant impacts on major asset classes, particularly in the energy sector, where the restoration of energy supplies to Europe remains uncertain [6] - In the metals sector, the lifting of sanctions could lead to changes in the prices of copper, aluminum, and nickel, while in the grain sector, a ceasefire could result in the lifting of Russia's grain export restrictions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders on August 15 may lead to a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with discussions likely to focus on short-term ceasefire goals and other strategic issues to be addressed subsequently [1] Group 1: Meeting Focus - The US-Russia summit may prioritize discussions on a ceasefire and other immediate objectives, while broader issues such as territorial control, sanctions on Russia, post-war security arrangements for Ukraine, and US strategy in Europe will be addressed in later stages [1] Group 2: Impact on Major Assets - If the meeting results in a consensus on a short-term ceasefire, the impact on major assets is expected to be primarily emotional, leading to a potential temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, oil, and the US dollar, while equity assets in Europe and the US may experience a short-term increase in risk appetite [1] - Conversely, if substantial progress is made on issues like lifting sanctions against Russia, it could have a more significant impact on major assets, particularly through disruptions in the supply side of certain commodities [1]

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The oil market may shift to a weaker market dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals due to the weakening geopolitical risk premium and the expected loose supply - demand outlook after the peak season. The fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG markets are all affected by the weakening of the oil market, with different market characteristics and trends [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC09 contract dropping 2.24% during the day. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, to be implemented in 21 days. But the risk of Russian oil supply has weakened, and the geopolitical risk premium has significantly decreased. The supply - demand outlook for crude oil after the peak season remains loose, and the oil market may turn to a weaker trend [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - SC led the decline in the oil product market, and the weakness of fuel - related futures continued. The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market in August was abundant, and the ship - bunkering demand lacked support. The Singapore inventory remained high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continued to decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market was weak, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price difference continued to shrink [2]. Asphalt - SC led the decline in the oil product market. The asphalt supply - side increase space is currently considered neutral, and the demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation. The asphalt's unilateral trend follows crude oil, and the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [3]. LPG - After the CP was lowered, the spot market was weak. The North American market was under pressure, and the import cost continued to put pressure on the domestic market. The domestic demand has bottom - support, and the LPG futures are running at a low level with the fundamental negatives having landed [4].

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

产业期现日报 证监许可 【2011】1292 (デ「发期货 Z0017002 | 2025年8月8日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | 品种 | 8月7日 | 8HeB | 涨跌 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2562.5 | -62.5 | -2.4% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2560.0 | 2580.0 | -20.0 | -0.8% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4910.0 | 4920.0 | -10.0 | -0.2% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | 5100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2413.0 | 2474.0 | -61.0 | -2.5% | | | SH2601 | 2542.0 | 2576.0 | -34.0 | -1.3% | | | SH基差 | 87.0 | 88 ર | -1.5 | -1.7% | ...

| Market | 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月07日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC09合约日内跌0.97%。周三特朗普因印度购买俄油对其加征25%关税，但将于21天后执 行,同时在8月8日俄乌停火协议截止日前的2天,特朗普表示美俄会谈成果积极，俄罗斯或通过空中停火等形式 达成阶段性协议。种种迹象表明美国持续威胁的对俄制裁最终落地或不及预期，地缘风险溢价大幅消退。上周 美国EIA原油库存超预期下降302.9万桶，但旺季后原油供需展望仍偏宽松，关注美国对俄制裁的最终落地情 况,油市或再次转向悲观供需面主导的偏弱行情。 【燃料油&低硫 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current oil market is the interplay between policy soft power suppression and geopolitical risk premium, with the market in a rebalancing phase between policy suppression (US and EU) and resource autonomy (OPEC and Russia) [2] - Trump's erratic tariff policies are causing concerns about economic recession, leading to a withdrawal of long positions in oil and an increase in short positions, reflecting investor pessimism about demand [2][3] - OPEC's production increase expectations and the performance of major Asian oil importers, China and India, are critical variables influencing oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - OPEC predicts that by 2025, daily oil demand from non-OECD Asian countries will increase by 610,000 barrels, with China contributing 210,000 barrels and India 160,000 barrels [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a more conservative forecast, estimating an increase of 81,000 barrels per day for China and 92,000 barrels for India, with a total increase of 352,000 barrels per day for non-OECD Asian countries [1] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions in Iraq, are providing structural support for the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The international crude oil market is experiencing a complex upward trend due to supply-demand mismatches, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy dynamics [2] - Brent crude oil is trading in the range of $84 to $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil has surpassed $82 per barrel, indicating heightened market sensitivity to supply risks [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply expectations are tightening as OPEC+ maintains its production cuts, with Saudi Arabia and Russia continuing to reduce output by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day until Q2 2025 [3] - U.S. shale oil growth is slowing, and exports are decreasing, while demand from Asian countries like China and India remains strong, particularly with the onset of the driving season in the Northern Hemisphere [3] - EIA data shows a significant reduction of nearly 9 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories as of early July, marking the largest decline of the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Tensions in the Middle East, including frequent attacks by Houthi forces on the Red Sea shipping lanes, are raising concerns about global energy supply chain disruptions [4] - The instability in Iran and increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are contributing to a heightened "geopolitical risk premium" in the oil market [4] - These factors are driving up market risk aversion and increasing speculative buying [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is pivotal for determining the upper limit of oil prices, with potential rate cuts in September if inflation continues to ease and employment weakens [5][6] - Conversely, a rebound in inflation or unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data could delay policy shifts, putting downward pressure on oil prices [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - CFTC data indicates that WTI net long positions have increased by over 20% in the past two weeks, reaching a five-month high, reflecting a growing bullish sentiment towards crude oil [7] - Technically, if Brent crude successfully breaks through the resistance level of $87, it could open up further upward movement towards the $90 mark, while maintaining above $82 would keep the trend strong [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of tightening supply, geopolitical instability, and potential monetary easing provides threefold support for oil prices, although current gains may have partially priced in these positives [8] - There is a need to be cautious of potential technical corrections due to speculative excess [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows a divergence between bulls and bears, and crude oil is expected to operate in a relatively strong manner. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is predicted to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and relatively strong, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East still exist, increasing the premium of crude oil. After a significant decline in the early stage, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the space for further production expansion in the future is limited [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Monday night, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and slightly weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 slightly closed down 0.86% to 507.5 yuan per barrel [5].