Group 1: Shipping Industry - The SCFIS European route index increased by 10.52% to 1140.38 points, driven by severe congestion at European ports and delays in shipping schedules [1] - Demand is boosted by the pre-Christmas shipping peak and announcements of rate increases by shipping companies in November [1] - Uncertainty in supply due to COSCO and MSC suspending or delaying certain routes, with multiple vessels pending in December [1] Group 2: Oil Market - New sanctions by the US and EU against Russia have led to a short-term rebound in oil prices, raising concerns about supply constraints [1] - US and product oil inventories are generally declining, while the number of active drilling rigs has increased only slightly, indicating limited production growth [1] - OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers plan to increase output, with warnings of a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day next year [1] Group 3: Fuel Oil - Sanctions against Russia have strengthened the cost support logic for fuel oil, with expectations of a decline in high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Russia [1] - Increased downstream shipping activities post-holiday are expected to improve short-term procurement demand [1] - There is a lack of significant supply contraction despite high inventories of high-sulfur fuel oil and stable inflows from Russia [1] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Production of cathode materials is on the rise, driven by pre-released demand for new energy vehicles [1] - Weekly visible inventory continues to decrease, with stable growth in new energy vehicle production and sales [1] - Global lithium resources are still in an expansion cycle, with new production lines coming online [1] Group 5: Coking Coal - Stricter environmental and safety inspection policies are causing ongoing disruptions in coal supply [1] - Most coal mines in Shanxi are at low inventory levels, while domestic steel mills are operating at high capacity [1] - Expectations for a second round of price increases for coke are likely to materialize soon [1] Group 6: Egg Market - Increased replenishment activity from downstream traders and expectations of supply improvements due to deep losses in breeding operations [2] - Seasonal temperature drops are improving storage conditions for eggs, leading to increased holding sentiment among producers [2] - The theoretical inventory of laying hens remains high, raising concerns about long-term demand growth [2] Group 7: Precious Metals - Overcrowding in long positions and a temporary easing of risk aversion have impacted the precious metals market [2] - The end of the traditional gold buying season in India has contributed to a decline in ETF holdings [2] - Ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts and potential monetary easing cycles in major economies could influence gold prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Crude oil may enter a weakly oscillating phase. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different supply - demand characteristics in the short and medium terms. Asphalt maintains a tight balance, and liquefied petroleum gas has certain inventory and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated further, with a 1.5% increase in inventory since the fourth quarter. The mid - term trend of the crude oil market is still under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weakly oscillating state [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term fuel oil prices follow the cost side with a weakly oscillating downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term price support but faces increasing supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil maintains a supply - demand weak situation. Strategies include shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract oscillates narrowly. The weekly asphalt operating rate declines, demand is weaker than expected in October, and the overall commercial inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt market maintains a tight balance and is pressured by the weak cost side [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract continues to oscillate narrowly, with the far - month contract under pressure. Supply increases slightly this week, chemical demand grows, and inventory at refineries and ports decreases. The basis narrows to near the flat - water position [4]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations and an upward trend by September 2025, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and various market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the closure of some refining facilities, contributing to a rise in oil prices to a high point within the month [1]. - Market expectations of OPEC+ increasing production and weak U.S. non-farm data have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a subsequent decline observed [1]. - Continued attacks by Ukraine on Russia may result in reduced oil production from Russian producers, while the EU might impose new sanctions on Russia [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates may also influence oil price movements, contributing to a rebound in prices mid-month [1]. Group 3: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services [1]. - The oil and gas industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the energy sector, characterized by strong resource endowments and synergistic industry chains [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under pressure due to the unresolved Sino - US trade game and the expected increase in market looseness in the fourth quarter. However, geopolitical factors may bring risk premiums [1]. - The fuel oil market fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical news. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025, and the support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4 [2]. - The LPG main contract has risen, with changes in Saudi CP forecasts, US propane exports, and inventory levels. The demand in the traditional peak season is expected to increase but has not significantly improved yet [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC11 contract rose 0.02%. The Sino - US trade game and the expected market looseness in the fourth quarter put pressure on the oil market. Last week, US API crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels more than expected. The medium - term bearish view on crude oil remains unchanged, but geopolitical factors may increase risk premiums [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple geopolitical news has affected the market, causing fuel oil to fluctuate with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks, but faces medium - term pressure due to the end of the Middle East power - generation and refining peak season and potential suppression of shipping fuel demand. Strategies can focus on shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread after geopolitical situations become clear. Low - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, with a weak fundamental situation [1]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that factory and social inventories have decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and commercial inventories have decreased by 40,000 tons compared to last week. The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025. The support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4. The cost increase has driven the BU futures price up, but the spot price is still weak, and the basis has weakened [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 3% today. Saudi's latest November CP forecast has increased the propane and butane prices. US propane exports have decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased. In the traditional peak season, the demand for combustion is expected to increase, but the actual demand has not significantly improved. The futures price has gradually recovered from the low level [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices declined as the first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region was reached, causing the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East to recede. The macro - sentiment worsened, and Brent crude dropped to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. [5] - Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in November, and the market expected a similar increase in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports and Russian crude oil exports have increased month - on - month. [5] - Recently, global floating storage of crude oil has increased significantly. In the week of October 3rd, the U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels, U.S. production rose again, and gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the drop in diesel cracking, and short - term cracking pressure exists. [5] - Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume operations, and global gasoline supply will recover. [5] - Considering the sanctions on refinery raw material supply, the Q4 refinery start - up expectations for local refineries are slightly lowered. Under the baseline scenario, there will be an excess of over 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and an expected excess of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - Trump stated that if Iran is willing to talk, he is ready to lift sanctions on Iran. He believes that Iran is frustrated and needs help, and sanctions are too harsh. He hopes to lift sanctions and achieve peace. [3] - Due to drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russian refined oil maritime exports in September decreased by 17.1% month - on - month to 7.58 million tons. Exports through the Baltic ports decreased by 15.4% to 4.36 million tons, and those through the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports decreased by 23.2% to 2.52 million tons. [3] - Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said that global oil demand is expected to remain strong in 2025 and 2026, increasing by about 1.2 - 1.4 million barrels per day. He is confident in demand growth due to the population and living standards in developing economies. Saudi Aramco's maximum production capacity is 12 million barrels per day, and the oil extraction cost is $2 per barrel. [4] 2. Regional Fundamentals - From September 19th to 25th, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased, and diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and that of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [4] 3. Weekly Views - This week, oil prices fell due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and worsened macro - sentiment. Brent crude dropped by over 4% in a single day. [5] - In terms of supply, OPEC will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November and is expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ and Russian crude oil exports have increased. Global floating storage and U.S. commercial crude oil inventory have increased, and U.S. production has risen. [5] - Refinery profits have declined with diesel cracking. Near - term European diesel inventory is high after active restocking, and short - term cracking is under pressure. Next week, the Dangote refinery's resumption will restore global gasoline supply. [5] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting Rizhao Port and local refineries. The impact needs evaluation, and Q4 local refinery start - up expectations are slightly lowered. [5] - Crude oil is expected to have an excess of over 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The absolute price center in Q4 is expected to be $55 - 60 per barrel. [5] 4. EIA Report - In the week of October 3rd, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 161,000 barrels per day to 3.59 million barrels per day. [16] - U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day. [16] - Excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a 0.89% increase. [16] - The four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.897 million barrels per day, a 1.68% increase year - on - year. [16] - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 285,000 barrels to 407 million barrels, a 0.07% increase. [16] - Excluding strategic reserves, U.S. commercial crude oil imports were 6.403 million barrels per day, an increase of 570,000 barrels per day from the previous week. [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/13 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/26 | 65.72 | 70.13 | 70.17 | - | 0.91 | -4.41 | 0.66 | 203.76 | 15.45 | 242.89 | 31.88 | | 2025/09/29 | 63.45 | 67.97 | 69.95 | - | 0.88 | -4.52 | 1.01 | 199.51 | 15.82 | 235.66 | 31.01 | | 2025/09/30 | 62.37 | 66.03 | 70.01 | - | ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are set to decrease in October following a significant drop in international oil prices, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices expected to be lowered by approximately 75 yuan per ton, translating to a reduction of around 0.07 yuan per liter [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Adjustments - The first oil price adjustment in October is anticipated to result in a decrease after two previous months of price stability [1] - As of October 11, the average price of reference crude oil was $64.30 per barrel, with a change rate of -1.37% [1] - The international oil prices experienced a sharp decline on October 10, with New York crude futures dropping 5.32% to $58.24 per barrel, marking a five-month low [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - The decline in oil prices is attributed to several factors, including threats from the U.S. President to raise tariffs, which heightened concerns over worsening international trade tensions [2] - OPEC has been increasing supply to the market over the past few months, altering the supply-demand dynamics [2] - A significant shift in the Middle East situation, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, is expected to reduce geopolitical risk premiums and improve oil supply expectations [2] Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Trends - Since the last domestic oil price adjustment on August 26, there have been no changes for over a month and a half, with two adjustments postponed [2] - Year-to-date, domestic oil prices have experienced "six increases, seven decreases, and six suspensions," resulting in a net effect where the price of 92-octane gasoline in Zhejiang Province has decreased by 0.32 yuan per liter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming adjustment of oil prices in October, indicating a shift from previous stability to a decrease in prices due to recent market conditions and geopolitical factors [1][4]. Price Adjustment Summary - The first oil price adjustment for October is set for October 13, with a projected decrease of 75 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a reduction of approximately 0.07 yuan per liter [1]. - As of October 11, the average price of reference crude oil was 64.30 USD per barrel, with a change rate of -1.37% [1]. - The international oil prices experienced significant drops on October 10, with New York crude futures falling by 5.32% to 58.24 USD per barrel, marking a five-month low, and Brent crude futures dropping by 4.8% to 62.09 USD per barrel [1][4]. Market Influences - The decline in oil prices is attributed to several factors, including threats from the U.S. President to raise tariffs, ongoing increases in supply from OPEC, and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [4]. - Domestic oil prices have not been adjusted since August 26, with two previous adjustments being suspended, leading to a total of six increases, seven decreases, and six suspensions in price changes this year [4].