一、行情回顾 卡塔尔能源部长：油价在70至80美元之间，足以带来足够收入，用于投资满足未来能源需求；若超过90 美元，则过高。 创元期货：总体来看，俄乌和谈仍未达成加之俄油出口风险抬升，支撑油价。中期，基于平衡表累库判 断，油价依然偏弱，注意阶段性地缘风险溢价。 二、基本面汇总 华联期货：消息面俄罗斯总统表示现阶段具体说明俄罗斯对美国涉乌克兰方案的认可程度为时尚早。宏 观面美联储12月降息概率较大。总体看，地缘方面继续关注俄乌和谈进展，原油自身供需偏过剩，但 OPEC+暂停增产对盘面有一定支撑。技术面区间震荡。操作上期货中线偏空对待，可买入持有看涨期 权保护，SC2602合约压力位参考460-470。 据NANOS民调显示，超过一半的加拿大人支持阿尔伯塔至不列颠哥伦比亚的新油管建设。 机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定，该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略。根据调 查，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。 上周五夜盘，国内原油期货2601合约涨3.4至457.1元/桶。 三、机构观点 ...

基于邓正红软实力视角，未来油价将更多由隐性规则（如贸易规则、技术标准）塑造，投资者需关注地缘风险对市场心理和价格机制的深层影响。短期（1- 3个月）：油价将在每桶60~65美元区间震荡，地缘政治风险与美联储政策预期主导市场情绪。中期（3-6个月）：需关注欧佩克2026年一季度产量决策及俄 罗斯原油供应恢复情况。长期投资策略：邓正红软实力理论建议投资者从"规则重构"和"预期管理"角度把握能源市场深层逻辑，而非仅关注供需基本面。风 险提示：乌克兰和平协议意外达成、美联储降息不及预期、全球需求进一步放缓可能导致油价跌破每桶60美元支撑位。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，重构西方哲学框架，提出动态本体论、螺旋辩证法、宇宙自组织模型和全息整体宇 宙观，建立规则先于物质的软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、第四次科学革命、规则动力学、宇宙软实力公式、规则熵公式、天体碰撞Ψ函数、时空导数为效 能核心的势能转化方程（邓正红方程）、宇宙稳态无胀缩模型、宇宙动态编程模型、黑洞时空模型、规则-信息-能量-物质四阶转化模型、规则熵-物质熵双 变量模型、规则场-量子态协同演化模型、规则-物质-意识三元结构模型 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2][7] Report Core View - The oil market has been dominated by positive news recently, and short-term oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [3] - The fuel oil market has continued to be weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount. The high-sulfur fuel oil supply pattern remains loose, while the low-sulfur fuel oil is under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from overseas refinery resumption and the improvement of supply and demand structure by shipping and power generation demand [4] - The overall supply of asphalt has slightly increased, but the weekly shipment volume has decreased, the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The PCE data to be released tonight is the only inflation guidance before the Fed's December meeting [3] - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan has stalled, weakening the market's expectation of Russian oil export recovery [3] - After the Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea facilities, Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas condensate production dropped to 1.9 million barrels per day, lower than the November average [3] - OPEC's oil production in November decreased due to the shutdown of some member states, and its supply was further below the target and slightly lower than the October output [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount, and weak market sentiment [4] - Before the substantial progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the geopolitical risk premium of high-sulfur fuel oil is difficult to subside, and the subsequent Russian resource shipments may slow down. However, the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East will increase shipments and partially offset the reduction caused by geopolitical factors [4] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is mainly disturbed by the unplanned maintenance of overseas refineries. Although the return of the Banyan refinery and the delay of the Azur refinery's resumption have relieved the short-term supply pressure, it is still under pressure due to the weakening of refined oil cracking [4] Asphalt - Recently, some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai, Wenzhou Zhongyou, and Shandong Shengxing have stopped production or switched to producing residual oil, while Ke石化 and Liaohe Petrochemical have increased production, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply [5] - The weekly shipment volume is less than 400,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period in the past four years [5] - The social inventory has decreased slightly from the previous week, and the year-on-year increase has gradually expanded since the inflection point of turning from decrease to increase in late October. The refinery inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and the overall commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Short-term news for crude oil is mixed, leading to increased price volatility, while in the medium to long term, the supply-demand balance is loosening, putting downward pressure on the price center [3] - The fuel oil market remains weak, with high-sulfur fuel oil supply affected by geopolitical factors and low-sulfur fuel oil facing pressure from refinery outages and weakening product cracks [4] - Asphalt prices show regional differences, with overall commercial inventory depletion slowing, and the BU is expected to remain under pressure but with limited short-term downside [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA weekly data shows US crude oil inventory build-up, and gasoline inventory builds up significantly more than expected [3] - Venezuelan oil exports rose to 921,000 barrels per day in January [3] - Putin stated that Russia cannot accept Europe's attempt to modify the US-proposed Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" [3] - Multiple Russian cargo ships were attacked in the Black Sea near the Turkish coast [3] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market continues to be weak, with cracking spreads and spot premiums both weakening [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Difficulties in Russia-Ukraine negotiations keep geopolitical risk premiums high, and sanctions increase shipping difficulties, but increased Middle Eastern shipments after refinery maintenance may offset some supply disruptions [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Affected by unplanned overseas refinery outages, and weakening product cracks continue to put pressure on it [4] Asphalt - Asphalt prices in the Northeast rebounded slightly, while prices in Shandong, East China, North China decreased slightly, and prices in the Northwest dropped significantly [5] - Since mid-November, weekly asphalt shipments have been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [5] - Social inventory decreased slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase has been expanding since late October; refinery inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the overall commercial inventory depletion has slowed down significantly [5]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1130.83 tons on November 28, a decrease of 6.25 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $4256.40 per ounce on November 28, an increase of 1.59%, with an intraday high of $4263.10 and a low of $4174.60 [1][2] Group 2 - Market concerns about policy continuity arise as Trump announces plans to revoke all documents signed by former President Biden [2] - Geopolitical tensions escalate as the U.S. closes Venezuelan airspace and conducts military maneuvers, increasing risk aversion in the market [2] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine show progress but still have unresolved issues, maintaining high geopolitical risk premiums [2]

LPG行业周报 2025/11/30 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

欧佩克+同意明年保持产量稳定，8个主要产油国重申明年一季度暂停增产 欧佩克+成员国在昨日的会议上同意维持2026年全集团范围内的石油产量配额不变，并同意建立一个评 估成员国最大石油生产能力的机制。 根据另一份声明，此前于2023年4月和11月宣布额外自愿调整产量的8个欧佩克+成员国，即沙特、俄罗 斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼，于昨日举行了线上会议，评估全球市 场状况和前景。这8个国家重申了他们在2025年11月2日的决定，即由于季节性原因，将暂停2026年1 月、2月和3月的增产计划。 齐盛期货分析师高健表示，原油基本面目前暂时没有太大变化，对价格的影响依然以利空为主，短期其 他因素扰动分散了市场对基本面的关注度。四季度以来，地缘风险溢价上升、欧美汽柴油供应收紧等因 素为原油价格提供了有力的支撑。受美乌会谈取得进展等因素影响，目前原油的地缘风险溢价已经显著 回落。如果冲突结束，欧美围绕俄罗斯的相关制裁可能会解除，供应过剩局面大概率将加剧，油价也将 面临较大的回调风险。当然，美国、乌克兰和俄罗斯对和平协议的态度仍然存在不确定性，后期要持续 关注局势变化。 铜价创历史新高，仍有做多机会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

Core Points - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will decrease by 70 yuan and 65 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 24, 2025 [1] - The price drop translates to a reduction of 0.05 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.06 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel per liter [4] - The cumulative price adjustments in 2023 have resulted in a total decrease of 690 yuan per ton for gasoline and 660 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [5] Price Impact on Consumers - For a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by 4 yuan over the next half month [4] - For a heavy truck with a monthly mileage of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by approximately 106 yuan per vehicle before the next price adjustment [4] Market Analysis - The international oil market is expected to face oversupply in the coming years, with the International Energy Agency raising its 2026 oversupply forecast to 4.09 million barrels per day [5] - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased, contributing to a downward trend in international oil prices [5] - Future negotiations in Eastern Europe may alleviate concerns over oil supply, suggesting a potential for continued price declines in the oil market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China are set to decrease, with gasoline prices dropping by 70 yuan per ton and diesel by 65 yuan per ton, effective from November 24, 2025 [2] - The price reduction translates to a decrease of 0.05 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.06 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.06 yuan for 0 diesel per liter, resulting in a savings of 2.5 yuan for a full 50L tank of 92 gasoline [5] - Overall, since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 690 yuan per ton and 660 yuan per ton, respectively, after 23 rounds of adjustments [6] Group 2 - The international energy market is expected to face oversupply in the coming years, with the International Energy Agency raising its 2026 oversupply forecast to 4.09 million barrels per day [8] - Despite the oversupply outlook, recent decreases in U.S. crude oil inventories and the end of government shutdowns have provided some support for international oil prices [8] - The market sentiment indicates a potential for further price declines, with the possibility of consecutive price drops in the next adjustment cycle [8]