1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean**: In the short - term, US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [11]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rising, driven by the US soybean trend. However, the short - term demand slump and the spot price discount limit the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations, the harvest weather in the US, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips The document does not mention specific weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean meal market is oscillating moderately strongly in the short term and will return to the range - bound pattern in the medium term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decrease in November, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will remain high. The demand for soybean meal in November is weak, but the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in November; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Positive Factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative Factors**: After the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, China starts to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the soybean price [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Report in the Past Six Months It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 [22]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 The report details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, as well as the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [23][24][25]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress It includes the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season [26][27][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis US soybeans are oscillating and rising due to the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, but the bumper harvest of US soybeans limits the upward space. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival of imported soybeans in November is decreasing from a high level, and the year - on - year overall shows an increase [37]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high, the soybean meal inventory has a slight increase, the soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal production in September increases year - on - year [38][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement has a slight decrease, and the pick - up volume is decreasing from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and started to rise recently, and the profit of pig farming has improved [47][49][53]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has a slight increase [58]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in an oscillatory state, and the soybean futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new market guidance [65]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in an oscillatory and rebound stage, and the upward space is limited. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71][72]. - **Second - Most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is under supply pressure, especially with the mediocre performance of the US soybean demand side, and the pressure on the carry - over inventory in the balance sheet is increasing. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and there is still significant pressure on soybean meal. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, and the price is also under pressure. The overall strategy is to be bearish on the single - side, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell call options [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean futures showed a slight rebound this week, mainly affected by the macro - aspect. The demand side of US soybeans still faces great pressure, and the inventory pressure persists. In the South American market, the weather in the Brazilian production area is favorable, the soybean sowing progress is relatively fast, and the overall supply pressure exists. After Argentina restored the tariff, the export pressure improved. The domestic soybean meal market supply - demand is relatively loose, and the spot has strengthened slightly due to the sharp decline in the futures. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is low, the oil mill operating rate is low, and the demand is also mediocre, with price pressure [4]. - **Strategies**: The single - side strategy is to remain bearish. The arbitrage strategy is M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage. The option strategy is to sell call options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Macro - aspect Slightly Eased, US Soybeans Oscillated**: The US soybean futures rebounded slightly this week due to the improvement in the macro - aspect. The US production area weather is dry, and the crop harvest is expected to progress well, but the yield per unit may be adjusted downwards. The US soybean export has not improved significantly, while the crushing performance is good, with the September crushing volume estimated at 197.863 million bushels. The demand for US soybean oil has also increased significantly [10]. - **South American Supply is Generally Sufficient, Prices Oscillated at High Levels**: Brazilian soybean prices remained high this week. The sowing progress reached 8.2% as of the week of October 4. The subsequent rainfall is expected to be relatively low, and the crop planting is progressing smoothly. Brazil's soybean export in October is estimated to reach 7.31 million tons. The soybean crushing profit has decreased, and the crushing volume is expected to decline, while the export proportion will increase. Argentina's soybean export pressure has improved [13]. - **Futures Pressure Increased, Spot Slightly Stabilized**: The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline this week, which supported the spot to some extent. The decline was affected by the macro - aspect and the large subsequent supply pressure. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and the demand for soybean meal remained at a relatively high level, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [16]. - **Limited Demand Support, Rapeseed Meal Futures Continued to Decline**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures faced increasing downward pressure this week. The supply of domestic rapeseed tightened, and the inventory decreased to a low level. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal was relatively sufficient, with overall pressure still present [19]. Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, weekly crushing profit, Brazilian monthly export volume and crushing volume, Argentine export and monthly crushing volume, and foreign basis [23][26]. - **Macro - aspect: Exchange Rate & International Shipping**: It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [33][37]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import volume and weekly crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds [42]. - **Demand Side**: It includes the提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseeds + rapeseed meal are presented [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in the new - crop US soybean production both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the decline is limited and difficult to raise the price center. South American old - crop soybeans had a good harvest, and the new - crop Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase year - on - year. The global soybean supply situation is optimistic, but the Sino - US trade tariff issue provides cost support for domestic soybean meal [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Market**: In the short term, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate until the end of September. The agreement to import soybean meal from Argentina restricts the speculation space for far - month contracts. The feed consumption of downstream livestock and poultry has different trends, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal stimulates the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal. The short - term fundamentals are slightly bullish, but the subsequent harvest pressure may put pressure on prices. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range market, and caution is needed when going long [5]. - **Global Rapeseed Market**: The new - season global rapeseed production is recovering, with a significant increase in Canada's rapeseed production. The harvest pressure of new - season rapeseed is gradually emerging [7]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Market**: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, but Australian rapeseed may be a supplement. The high port granular rapeseed meal inventory and low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal suppress the price. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in August - **Soybean Meal**: It first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the unexpected reduction in US soybean planting area pushed up the price, but then it fell back due to sufficient supply and other factors [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It also first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed pushed up the price, but then it declined due to high inventory and other factors [13]. 2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - **2025/26 New - Crop**: The planting area was unexpectedly reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production was reduced by 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The export volume was reduced by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was reduced by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [14]. 3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - **Brazil**: The 8 - month report maintained the estimates of old and new - crop data in July. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans to China is expected to remain firm [15]. - **Argentina**: In the 2024/25 season, the production was increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, the export volume was increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons [18]. 4. Crop Progress - **US Soybeans**: As of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [20]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to reach 169.657 million tons, with an increase of 14.8% year - on - year, and the 2025/26 production is expected to reach 176.5 million tons, with an increase of 3% year - on - year [21][22]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, with an upward revision of 2% [23]. 5. Global Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global**: The 8 - month USDA report showed that the global rapeseed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [27]. - **Canada**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 19.25 million tons, with a slight increase year - on - year [28]. - **EU**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 18.539 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.09% [29]. 6. Canadian Rapeseed Situation - **Weather and Exports**: In Manitoba, there was sporadic rainfall and strong convective weather. As of August 17, the export volume decreased to 90,800 tons, and the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [41]. - **Anti - Dumping**: Since August 14, 2025, the margin ratio for Canadian companies has been 75.8% [42]. 7. Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Imports**: In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons from June and an increase of 1.813 million tons from July 2024 [45]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of August 22, the national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons, and the national oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons [48][53]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, and the low - erucic - acid rapeseed oil cake import volume was 154,628.215 tons [59][62]. - **Feed Consumption**: In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [75]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: The profit of pig farming declined in August, the profit of laying - hen farming fluctuated slightly, and the profit of white - feather broiler farming remained profitable [85][88].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downside space of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. The reasons are as follows: supply growth is slowing down; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [2][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 DCE Soybean No. 1 Futures Price Review - From January to June 6, 2025, the main contract price of DCE soybean No. 1 futures showed a pattern of "range - bound movement with a rising center of gravity". It experienced four stages: rising from January 9 to March 4 due to factors like rising international soybean prices, policy incentives, and Sino - US trade frictions; falling from March 5 to March 20 because of the local reserve soybean auction in Heilongjiang; rising from March 21 to April 24 due to Sino - US trade frictions and a sharp rise in soybean meal spot prices; and range - bound oscillation from April 25 to June 6, with upward pressure from the sharp drop in soybean meal spot prices and the expectation of state reserve auctions, and downward support from low market surplus grain and stable - to - strong spot prices [6][7][8]. 2. 2025 H2 Factors Affecting the Soybean No. 1 Futures Price 2.1 Supply Side: New Crop Supply Growth Slows, Old Crop Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply - **New Crop Soybean Supply Growth Slows** - In 2025, China's soybean production increased steadily. The sown area was about 1.042 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; the yield per unit area was 2,023 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; and the output was 21.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2%, reaching a record high [10]. - For the 2025/26 period, China's soybean imports remained at a high level, but there were differences in the estimated quantities. USDA estimated an import volume of 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%, while CAOC estimated 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.8%. Overall, the total supply increased but the growth rate slowed down [15][18][20]. - **Old Crop Soybean Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply** - The market surplus grain of soybeans was relatively low, and old crop reserve auctions supplemented the supply. From March to May, local reserve auctions took place, and subsequent state reserve auctions were also expected. As of the week of May 30, the surplus grain of soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 2%, lower than the same period in previous years. The surplus grain in Anhui, Henan, and Shandong was also lower than in previous years. From March to May 2025, the actual transaction volume of local reserve soybean auctions in Heilongjiang was about 455,000 tons, and in Inner Mongolia was about 220,000 tons [23]. 2.2 Demand Side: Market Demand Increases Steadily, Reserve Demand Provides Support - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, China's domestic soybean consumption was estimated to be 133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The total demand was 133.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). CAOC estimated that the domestic soybean consumption in the 2025/26 period was 114.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.35%. The difference in consumption estimates between USDA and CAOC mainly lies in the crushing volume, but overall, the crushing volume remained at a high level. It is expected that the crushing volume of domestic soybeans will increase year - on - year due to low prices, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans will depend on the demand for soybean meal in the domestic breeding industry [30]. - Reserve demand is stable and has regulatory space. China has been continuously purchasing autumn - harvested soybeans. As of March 7, 2025, the purchase volume of soybeans exceeded 10 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years. If market demand is insufficient, reserve demand can increase; if market demand is good, reserve demand can decrease [37]. 2.3 Inventory Side: Global and Chinese Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Decline, Supply - Demand Tightens - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global, US, Brazilian, and Chinese soybeans all declined, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In the Chinese soybean supply - demand balance sheet, the supply increment was 5 million tons (about 3% increase), and the demand increment was 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The demand growth was slightly higher than the supply, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The downside of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. Supply growth is slowing down both domestically and globally; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth, with increasing edible demand and stable - to - high crushing demand; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [43]. - In terms of investment outlook, from a trend investment perspective, a strategy of "going long at low levels and rolling long positions" can be considered. When the soybean price is at a phased low, strategies such as "buying on dips" and "buying hedges to lock in costs" can be considered; when the price reaches a phased high, reduce positions and take profits [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, in the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected to trade in a range, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [6]. - For soybean No. 2, due to the seasonal supply glut in South America, it is under pressure to move, with a multi - and short - factors intertwined situation and an expected volatile movement [7]. - For soybean meal, given the ample supply, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [8]. - For soybean oil, it is likely to maintain a weakly volatile trend, and the short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract fell 1.32% to close at 4117 yuan/ton. In the future, domestic soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to a weak supply - demand balance [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract declined 0.34% to 3559 yuan/ton. The market focuses on US soybean planting weather, and South American supply is seasonally abundant, putting pressure on prices [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2968 yuan/ton. With increasing soybean arrivals and rising inventory, it is expected to trade weakly [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract dropped 1.75% to 7638 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to trade weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 prices fell, soybean meal prices rose, and soybean oil prices declined this week [11][18][24]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal widened, while that of soybean oil narrowed [30][33]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 futures increased, and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean meal, both the net position and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean oil, both the net position and warehouse receipts increased [42][49][56]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis increased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis narrowed; the spot price of soybean oil decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [62][70][76]. - **Imported Bean Premium and Cost Changes**: The FOB premiums of US, Argentine, and Brazilian soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans decreased [80][86]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Supply - Side Changes**: The expected production of US soybeans in the new year decreased, and inventory decreased; the expected production of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased; the expected production of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased [101][106][111]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean planting progress was fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress exceeded 80% [115]. - **Export - Related Changes**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and export sales volume increased; Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [121][126]. 3.3.2 Domestic Industry - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, soybean meal inventory increased, and soybean oil inventory increased month - on - month [130][134][138]. - **Oil Mill Operation**: The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [142]. - **Import and Arrival Volume**: The month - on - month import volume of soybeans in April increased, and the expected arrival volume of soybeans in May increased month - on - month [148][152]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of domestic soybeans decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market increased [156]. 3.3.3 Substitute Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil rose; the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased; the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][170][175]. - **Spread Changes**: The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, and the rapeseed - soybean spread widened [166]. 3.3.4 Transaction Volume - The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil increased [181]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of live pigs rose, and the price of piglets fell; the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [186][192]. - **Demand - Side Changes**: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month; the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased month - on - month; the domestic consumption of Chinese soybeans and soybean oil increased in the 2024/25 year [196][201][205]. 3.5 Options Market Based on the trend of soybean meal, which is expected to trade weakly in a range, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [213].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2752, the opening price was 2731, the highest price was 2740, the lowest price was 2700, the closing price was 2700, down 52 (-1.89%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 2054, and the open interest decreased by 15024 to 0 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2744, the opening price was 2738, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2720, the closing price was 2725, down 19 (-0.69%). The trading volume was 75791, and the open interest increased by 1217 to 522751 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2902, the opening price was 2895, the highest price was 2910, the lowest price was 2880, the closing price was 2886, down 16 (-0.55%). The trading volume was 1048384, and the open interest increased by 35113 to 2571732 [6]. USDA May Report on US Soybeans - Supply: The new - season US soybean planting area is about 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6 million acres (4.1%); the harvested area is about 82.7 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4 million acres (3.9%); the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 3.6%. The estimated production in the 25/26 season is 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.6% [6]. - Demand: The estimated export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the estimated crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [6]. - Ending inventory: The ending inventory in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 295 million bushels, a significant decrease from the previous season's estimated 350 million bushels, indicating a return to a relatively balanced supply - demand fundamental [6]. Market Reaction - After the report was released, US soybeans rose slightly. Although the data was bullish, there are significant uncertainties, especially regarding the continuation of the agreement after the 90 - day exemption period between China and the US and the biodiesel policy [6]. - Despite the balanced supply - demand of US soybeans, the South American soybeans, especially Brazilian soybeans, still have a relatively loose supply situation. Currently, the CBOT soybean price is expected to have strong support below, and the upward potential depends on weather changes in the next 2 - 3 months [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 66%, ahead of 61% in the same period last year, and up from 45% the previous week [7]. - As of the week ending May 12, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada was 29%, up from 9.6% the previous week. As of the week ending May 13, the rapeseed planting rate in Alberta was 23.7%, up from 5%. Rapeseed planting in Manitoba has just started [18]. - As of the week ending May 11, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 29.5% to 130,000 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to May 11, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 8.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66.5%. As of May 11, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.0951 million tons [18]