11月13日智农通 APP行 情宝数据显示，今日全国生猪均价为11.71元/公斤，与昨日相比价格下跌0.07元/ 公斤，月环比上涨7.4%，同比下跌29.3%。猪价跌幅收窄。 全国20个省份均价下跌，2个省份均价上涨，其他省份均价持稳。均价最低省份为贵州，外三元生猪均 价为11.04元/公斤；均价最高省份为福建（除海南外），外三元生猪均价为12.60元/公斤。其中，甘肃 跌幅最大，今日均价环比下跌0.25元/公斤；仅河南、陕西小幅微涨。 分区域来看，北方产区受集团场集中出栏影响，价格承压明显，而南方销区则因运输成本及区域供需关 系支撑相对坚挺。其中，甘肃、新疆等西北地区跌幅较为突出，局部市场面临生猪调运不畅与需求疲软 的双重压力。尽管河南、陕西等省份出现微幅反弹，但整体来看，全国多数地区仍呈现稳中偏弱格局。 展望后市，行情宝预计短期内猪价或维持窄幅震荡态势，局部地区可能出现小幅企稳迹象。但受制于供 需基本面未现根本性改善，持续上行缺乏足够动力。建议养殖户密切关注区域价差变化，合理安排出栏 节奏，避免盲目压栏加剧市场波动。市场整体仍需等待消费端实质性回暖或政策面新动向才能打破当前 僵持局面。 从期货市场表现来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquefied gas market in South China experienced a volatile increase in early November, but is expected to trend downward in the latter half of the month due to increased supply, lower import costs, and weak demand [1][5]. Supply Dynamics - In early November, the price of liquefied gas in South China rose by 100-150 yuan per ton due to reduced supply from both domestic refineries and import terminals [3]. - The decrease in supply was attributed to the commissioning of the ethylene unit at Guangxi Petrochemical, which increased self-consumption of liquefied gas, and a slight decline in the release of civil gas from Beihai [3]. - The overall import volume was around 130,000 tons, with delays in some import terminals in the Pearl River Delta and Chaoshan regions exacerbating supply tightness [3]. Future Supply Outlook - After November 10, the resumption of unloading at Pearl River Delta terminals is expected to replenish the market supply [3]. - In the latter half of November, supply pressures are anticipated to increase due to several factors: the suspension of pipeline transportation by CNOOC Huizhou Refinery, planned maintenance at Maoming Petrochemical, and the conclusion of repairs at Guangxi Petrochemical in early December [3]. - The expected daily increase in civil gas supply could rise from 600-700 tons to over 2,000 tons, particularly noticeable at the end of November and early December [3]. Demand and International Market Conditions - Terminal demand has been declining for several years, and despite entering the peak demand season, overall performance remains below expectations, which dampens the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream enterprises [5]. - The international market is also weak, with expected prices for December CP propane at $468 per ton and butane at $462 per ton, indicating a slight decrease in import costs compared to November [5]. - The combination of increased supply, anticipated lower import costs, and weak seasonal demand is expected to lead to a downward trend in liquefied gas prices in South China, potentially reaching seasonal lows again [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have seen rapid rotation, with the technology - growth sector remaining the market's main theme. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage, it is advisable to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - The short - term trend of copper prices is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while aluminum prices may rise further. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term [13][15][17][20][22]. - The short - term trend of tin prices is expected to be strong and volatile. The price of lithium carbonate may see high - level selling pressure. Alumina is recommended to be observed in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [24][27][29][32][34]. - Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term but may see a demand inflection point in the future. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term. Glass prices are expected to remain weak, and soda ash prices may continue to fluctuate [38][40][42][44]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short. Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [48][51][53]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and other chemical products are generally recommended to be observed [59][62][63][64]. - For agricultural products, the general strategy for hogs is to go short on rebounds, eggs are expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term, and soybean meal is recommended to be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term. The trend of oils and fats depends on the export and production of palm oil, and sugar is recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [83][85][87][90][92][96]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to maintain the stability of the financial market, and Mexico has postponed the plan to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. SoftBank has sold all its Nvidia shares worth $5.83 billion [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and the technology - growth sector is the main theme. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The main contracts of treasury bonds showed different changes. The 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, and the US Senate has passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown. The central bank conducted a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The CPI in October exceeded expectations, and the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. The supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver showed different trends. The US non - farm payroll data could not be released normally, and the US government shutdown problem is likely to be resolved, which will improve market liquidity [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market prices a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December. It is advisable to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for gold and silver contracts are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices adjusted. LME and domestic warehouse inventories decreased, and the import loss of domestic copper was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy View**: The expected reopening of the US government and the easing of trade tensions boost market sentiment. The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, and copper prices may be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China narrowed [14]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas supply concerns and expected improvement in domestic exports may push aluminum prices higher. Attention should be paid to changes in domestic inventories [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are provided, and the import loss of zinc ingots was - 4957.57 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to tighten marginally. Zinc prices may be strong in the short - term but have limited upside in the excess cycle [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly. Domestic and foreign inventories decreased, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly [18][19]. - **Strategy View**: Lead concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply of lead is expected to be tight in the near - term. Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [21]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider going long if the price drops sufficiently [22]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in tight balance, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips [24]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly [26]. - **Strategy View**: The demand is expected to reach a new high this month, but attention should be paid to high - level selling pressure [27]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decreased slightly. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase [28]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [29]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices decreased. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The inventory is being released, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [30][31]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weak in the short - term due to supply - demand imbalance [32]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices decreased. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [34]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [36]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, but demand may improve in the future [38]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices decreased slightly. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand from steel mills weakened. The port inventory increased [39]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of iron ore is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to weaken. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [40]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass decreased, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash decreased, and the inventory increased [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market lacks fundamental support and is expected to remain weak. The soda ash market is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [42][44]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The market is affected by macro and fundamental factors [45]. - **Strategy View**: The price trend is affected by macro events. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than to short [47][48]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon decreased. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease in the future [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to consolidate, and polysilicon prices may see a marginal improvement in the supply - demand pattern [51][53]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The opening rates of tire enterprises showed different trends, and the inventory increased [55][57]. - **Strategy View**: A neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and partial hedging positions [59]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products decreased. The inventory of refined products in Fujeirah Port increased [60]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to observe in the short - term [62]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, leading to an increase in inventory [63]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [63]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of urea is in a relatively loose pattern, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [64]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply and demand showed different trends [65]. - **Strategy View**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily due to inventory reduction, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair [67]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PVC is imbalanced, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [69]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short on rallies [71]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable, and the inventory is expected to increase [72]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the processing fee is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN [73]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene decreased. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of p - xylene is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [75]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The price of PE is expected to remain low and volatile due to factors such as inventory and demand [78]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP decreased. The supply is expected to be under pressure, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally [79]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [80]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was not improved [82]. - **Strategy View**: The future supply of hogs is expected to be in excess, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short - term, there may be a rebound [83]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. The supply was stable, and the demand was general [84]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strongly sorted in the short - term. It is recommended to observe or trade short - term [85]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans was stable. The domestic soybean inventory was at a high level, and the demand for soybean meal was weak [86]. - **Strategy View**: The import cost of soybeans fluctuates, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production showed different trends. The US Department of Agriculture will release a report [88]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of palm oil is expected to be large, and the price trend depends on production and export. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective [90]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuated. India has allowed sugar exports, and the opening of sugar mills in China has different situations [91]. - **Strategy View**: The import control of syrup and premix has driven up the price of sugar, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton market lacks strong driving factors, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [96].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Fats and Oils Industry**: The market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, and there is pressure for further decline in the external palm oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - **Sugar Industry**: The global sugar supply is abundant, and the raw sugar price remains weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by import quotas and may experience weak price fluctuations [3]. - **Pig Industry**: The pig price is expected to be moderately strong in November, and the market has entered a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. - **Cotton Industry**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range due to cost support and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Corn Industry**: The short - term corn supply is relatively stable, and the price may adjust in a range. It will be weak when the selling pressure emerges [8]. - **Meal Industry**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply pressure remains, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean oil prices were stable, palm oil prices had minor fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices increased slightly [1]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and the market has a bearish view on its inventory. The domestic soybean oil supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak [1]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, sugar futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions changed. The raw sugar price is at a five - year low [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [3]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market's reluctance to sell increased, and the planned November slaughter volume will slow down, which may support the pig price [5]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial and commercial inventories increased, and textile exports decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [8]. - **Market Situation**: The selling pressure of corn is expected to increase, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [8]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had minor fluctuations [12]. - **Market Situation**: The demand for US soybeans is not strong, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is cost support [12]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, egg futures prices changed, and spot prices increased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is average [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable with mild recovery in downstream bunker activities, but the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has reached the largest discount in over a week; Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable downstream bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November shipments suppress the spot spread [3]. - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 363.42 dollars/ton with a basis of - 55 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 447.83 dollars/ton with a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, showing a spot discount to futures [3]. - Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels [3]. - The price is near the 20 - day line, with the 20 - day line trending downward [3]. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - Crude oil has a small intraday increase, the bunker market lacks actual positive factors, and downstream players remain on the sidelines. Fuel oil is expected to fluctuate. FU2601 is expected to trade in the range of 2660 - 2720, and LU2601 in the range of 3240 - 3280 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report provides an analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and position analysis, and gives expected trading ranges for FU2601 and LU2601 [3]. 2. Multi - Empty Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Russia has extended fuel export restrictions, and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises are positive factors [4]. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, while demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Market Structure**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable with mild bunker activity recovery, but the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has reached a large discount; Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November shipments suppress the spot spread [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 55 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is - 12 yuan/ton, showing a spot discount to futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels [3]. - **Price Trend**: The price is near the 20 - day line, with the 20 - day line trending downward [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with an increase in long positions [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads [10]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - PTA: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as weak demand, high inventory, and cost - profit imbalances. Different products have different trends and investment strategies, mainly including anti - arbitrage operations and attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [2][3][5] Grouped by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures weakened slightly during the day. International oil price decline dampened market sentiment, and demand was hard to boost significantly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures consolidated weakly. For polyethylene, trading volume needed to be released; for polypropylene, the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of benzene futures fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in short - term consolidation with medium - term negative factors. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene futures consolidated narrowly. The cost support was insufficient, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. PTA might accumulate inventory in the future, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Ethylene glycol supply was expected to increase, with a continued inventory accumulation expectation, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern, but the profit was slightly squeezed. Its price would fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. High port inventory and weak demand suppressed the market, and the market was expected to be weak [6] - Urea futures rose significantly. The market was boosted by export news, but caution was needed when chasing up [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory and ran at a low level due to high supply and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the supply was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose slightly. The supply was high, and the inventory was at a high level. It was expected to be hard to decline in the short term [8] - Glass ran weakly. Cost increase limited the decline space, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year rush - to - work [8]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PX market is experiencing a strong performance with futures prices rising, while the supply-demand dynamics indicate potential pressures in the medium term [1][2][3] Group 1: PX Market Performance - As of November 6, PX futures showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract increasing by 1.84% to 6740.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for PX saw a narrowing of the monthly difference from +7 to +3, maintaining a strong floating level, with December negotiations around +7/+8 and January around +1/+3 [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Utilization - PX production for the week was reported at 737,400 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.85% [2] - Domestic PX average capacity utilization rate stood at 87.93%, up by 1.6% from the previous week [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - On November 5, the closing prices for PX in Asia rose by $2/ton, with prices at $793-795/ton FOB Korea and $818-820/ton CFR China [2] - New Century Futures noted that while there is an expectation of improved supply-demand for PX, the overall pressure on PX prices remains due to the imbalance in the polyester industry chain [3] - Mai Ke Futures indicated that although PX profits may expand further, the current profit levels in the polyester chain are relatively high, limiting the upward potential for PX prices [3]