Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released. Coupled with a slight improvement in market expectations, the price has staged a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals remain weak, resulting in a lackluster price rebound [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated with relatively sharp price movements. In the spot market, the price of high - quality primary coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [2] Import Data - In recent months, China's coking coal imports have remained at a relatively high level. In November, China imported 10.7315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports reached 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 6.2441 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal clearance remained high in December, with inventory increasing in the port supervision area [2] Supply Side - In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Last week, some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after face - changing operations and increased production to meet the annual production targets, resulting in a slight increase in output. However, as it is the peak period for year - end coal mine maintenance, the increase in output may be limited. With downstream coke and steel enterprises starting to replenish inventory, the trading of coking coal has improved [2] Demand Side - Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continued to suppress the rigid demand for raw materials [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace operations and coal mine复产 conditions [3]

基本金属 2025年12月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价再创新高。 | | | | 基本面：昨日金银铜继续创历史新高，但在美 GDP 后曾"闪跌"，但在贝森特和哈赛特发言后收回。供应端， | | | 铜 | 铜矿紧张格局延续。平水铜贴水 220 元和 150 元左右成交。伦敦结构 28 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：建议逢低买入。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.11%，收于 22195 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-330 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 2948.5 美元/吨。 | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力贴水幅度 | | | | 增加，周二累库 0.4 万吨，预计铝价维持震荡整理。 | | ...

【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 10.50 元/桶，涨幅 2.46%，报 437.90 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 46.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.91%，报 2458.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 73.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.51%，报 2982.00 元/吨。 能源化工日报 2025-12-23 原油 2025/12/23 原油 能源化工组 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.94 百万桶至 10.16 百万桶，环比累库 10.14%； 柴油库存环比去库 0.27 百万桶至 14.70 百万桶，环比去库 1.79%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.01 百万桶至 7.21 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%；石脑油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 4.98 百万桶，环比 去库 1.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.05 百万桶至 8.84 百万桶，环比累库 0.54%；总体成品油环 比累库 0.67 百万桶至 45.89 百万桶，环比累库 1.49%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Philippines has extended its sugar import ban until December 2026 to protect domestic sugar production and stabilize market supply and demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Department of Agriculture in the Philippines announced that the import ban, initially expected to be lifted by mid-2026, will now last until the end of 2026 [1] - The decision to extend the ban is based on an assessment of current sugar production and market demand forecasts, indicating a need for a longer import restriction than previously planned [1] Group 2: Domestic Production - The domestic raw sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is projected to exceed 2 million tons, surpassing the earlier target of 1.7 million tons [1] - Predictions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggest that the raw sugar production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable compared to the 2024/2025 season [1] Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The Department of Agriculture will enhance oversight of local sugar mills to ensure accurate data on refined sugar inventories, preventing misinformation and speculative pricing in the market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market faces significant supply - demand pressures. Domestically, port inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Overseas, there's a possibility of repair in the US - South Korea price difference. Demand is weak, and although supply - side reduction plans and decreasing imports may relieve inventory pressure, the market remains under pressure, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The styrene market maintains a pattern of low operation and steady inventory reduction. Port inventories are falling, but weak demand lacks upward momentum. With the approaching of December, the market enters the off - season, and inventory pressure still exists. Supply - side changes have limited impact due to unremarkable demand recovery [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On December 15, the styrene main contract closed up 0.70% at 6,487 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.52% at 5,448 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,315 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On December 15, Brent crude closed at $57.4 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.1 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (-1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+3.6 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene weekly output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.3% (-0.6%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 53.8% (-2.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 70.5% (+2.2%), and PS capacity utilization was 58.3% (-0.7%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market will oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream operation recovery and import arrivals, and the market will seek a balance between inventory and supply [2]. - **Styrene**: The market lacks upward momentum due to weak demand, and supply - side changes have limited impact [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract increased 0.70% from December 12 to December 15, and the spot price increased 0.06%. Pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.52%, and the East China spot price increased 0.28% [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, Chinese styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased 36.59% [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased 1.56%, and that of caprolactam decreased 7.53%. Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased 1.61%, ABS decreased 2.90%, and PS increased 1.40% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations. Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027. Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic weakness and the need for interest - rate cuts. The US EIA crude inventory in the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of styrene and pure benzene prices, output, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [11][20][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the low - supply pattern supports steel prices, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Steel prices are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom under the game between expectations and reality. Attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [5][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. Under the weak reality pattern, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.92%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, iron ore demand continues to weaken, while supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and iron ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Situation in November**: The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 4.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide was 5950.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Real Estate Development Investment from January to November**: The national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The investment in residential buildings was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%, and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [8]. - **Australia's Anti - dumping Review of Chinese Rebar**: Australia's Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic facts report and final - ruling suggestions on the anti - dumping review of steel reinforcing bars imported from Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected to complete the basic facts report by December 23, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 16, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3240 yuan, in Tianjin was 3150 yuan, and the national average price was 3289 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, in Tianjin was 3170 yuan, and the national average price was 3285 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1160 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 772 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 773 yuan, the Australian freight was 10.11 yuan, the Brazilian freight was 22.03 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 106.05, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.20 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3074 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The highest price was 3086 yuan, the lowest price was 3031 yuan, the trading volume was 1,232,643 lots (an increase of 258,307 lots), and the open interest was 1,627,666 lots (an increase of 20,609 lots) [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3233 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The highest price was 3247 yuan, the lowest price was 3194 yuan, the trading volume was 706,855 lots (an increase of 218,669 lots), and the open interest was 1,224,554 lots (an increase of 34,067 lots) [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 753.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.92%. The highest price was 760.5 yuan, the lowest price was 748.0 yuan, the trading volume was 367,137 lots (an increase of 123,572 lots), and the open interest was 469,396 lots (an increase of 3,908 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building materials independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [36][32]. 3.5后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and demand decreased by 13.89 tons. Low - supply supports steel prices, but weak demand still exerts pressure. With low valuation and policy expectations, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 5.60 tons, and demand is weak. Although the output of cold - rolled products in the main downstream is rising, there are concerns about external demand due to policy disturbances. With high inventory and low valuation, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern changes little. Ore demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Although there is a structural contradiction in the spot market, iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it provides trend judgments for various sectors and varieties, including "Bullish", "Bearish", "Sideways", and "Watch". Core Viewpoints The recent Politburo meeting released limited incremental information, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work. In the short - term, investors should be wary of potential "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments after policy announcements. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, presenting a layout window. For different sectors and varieties, the report analyzes their respective fundamentals, macro - factors, and market conditions to provide investment suggestions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, be cautious of post - policy "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustments. In the long - term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides an opportunity to build long positions, and investors can use the futures discount structure to optimize investment costs and odds [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement. There are opportunities to go long on dips as market risk appetite recovers [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Industry drivers are limited, but risk appetite recovery makes aluminum prices run strongly. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. Zinc fundamentals have improved, and it is advisable to wait and see before the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. Nickel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and stainless steel futures will oscillate. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate in the short - term and has upward potential in the long - term. Silver is supported by supply - demand imbalance but is subject to high volatility. Platinum is likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short - term and can be bought on dips in the long - term. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be maintained [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Related Products**: Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes in different regions and reduced production schedules of downstream products. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate with capacity reduction expectations and other factors. Lithium carbonate has short - term sharp increases due to various factors [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coils, macro - drivers strengthen in December, providing some upward momentum. It is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market after price increases. Avoid chasing high prices for single - side trading and consider participating in spot - futures positions. Iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts, while the near - month is restricted by production cuts. Other products such as silicon iron, glass, and coke also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton and Sugar**: Cotton is in a situation of "supported but lacking drivers", and attention should be paid to future policies and market conditions. Sugar has a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below. Other agricultural products such as soybeans, pulp, and grains also have their own market analyses and investment suggestions [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil and fuel oil will oscillate due to factors such as OPEC+ production suspension, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions. Bitumen is bearish, and rubber - related products have different market trends and investment suggestions [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Various chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have their own market analyses based on factors like cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the PTA market is experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including inventory accumulation expectations and geopolitical issues affecting oil prices [1][2][3] - As of December 9, the average price of PTA for 2025 is reported at 4754 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% primarily due to falling oil prices and new PTA production capacity impacting market sentiment [1] - The WTI crude oil price has decreased from nearly 75 USD/barrel in June to approximately 58 USD/barrel, indicating a weak overall market for crude oil in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Short-term market analysis suggests that while PTA processing fees are low and supply-side pressures are easing, there is a weak expectation for demand, leading to a potential inventory accumulation in December [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the PTA market from March to May next year, anticipating a recovery in demand as no new PTA production capacity is expected to come online [3] - Seasonal patterns indicate that demand for PTA will decline in January and February, leading to increased inventory levels, but a significant recovery in demand is expected from March to May [3] Group 3 - The PX market is expected to benefit from planned maintenance of PX facilities in mainland China and other countries, which may support PTA prices [4] - Despite the anticipated strong demand for PTA in March to May 2026, the potential for a narrow decline in crude oil prices could negatively impact the PTA market [4] - Geopolitical factors, such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation, may lead to increased crude oil supply, further pressuring oil prices and potentially affecting PTA market dynamics [4]