Group 1 - The methanol futures market is experiencing a weak performance with a downward trend, as the main contract opened at 2380.00 CNY/ton and fluctuated between 2370.00 CNY and 2388.00 CNY, showing a decline of approximately 0.92% [1] - High production levels and operating rates are contributing to increased inventories, with port methanol stocks reaching historical highs, indicating potential continued accumulation in the future [1][2] - The demand side is under pressure due to downstream maintenance, but there are expectations for a seasonal demand increase in September and October, which may provide some support for methanol prices [1][2] Group 2 - The market structure remains weak with high port inventories, although most negative factors have already been priced in, leading to a potential marginal improvement in the fundamentals [2] - Companies are observing good profit margins, and while traditional demand is weak, there are expectations for a slight recovery in demand as the peak season approaches [2] - Strategies are suggested to focus on buying on dips and exploring opportunities in the 1-5 spread, despite the ongoing pressure from high port inventories [2]

Report General Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Report Core Content 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash: The short - term contradiction in the industry has been alleviated, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the arrival of the peak season, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass: The overall glass production shows a slight upward trend, and industry profits have improved. Industry inventory has started to accumulate again. Affected by the peak - season demand and anti - involution expectations, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend in the short term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On September 16, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 rebounded significantly, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 3.15%, with a daily reduction of 101,682 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate has slowed down, and the inventory reduction has decreased. The high - inventory and weak - demand situation persists. The weekly production reached 761,100 tons, a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased to 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons from last Thursday. The total shipment volume was 785,700 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points [8]. - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the overall glass production has slightly increased but is still at a low level. Spot prices have rebounded, and industry profits have improved. Deep - processing orders remain basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory has started to accumulate again. Different types of glass have different market situations. The supply - side pressure of float glass has been marginally relieved, and the cost side has certain support, but the demand side remains weak. The demand for new - house glass continues to decline, while the production of automobiles and home appliances is increasing, providing some support for glass demand. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market price, and flat - glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short term, but the oversupply situation is difficult to improve in the long term. The downstream products may provide slight support for the soda ash price, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8][9]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase in early September 2025, driven by strong demand. The supply - side pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost side has some support, but the demand side is weak. The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [10][11]. Group 4: Soda Ash Market Market Data - On September 15, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.71%, with a daily reduction of 1607 lots [7][8]. Fundamentals - Weekly production increased to 76.11 tons, a 1.24% week - on - week increase, but the industry still faced high inventory and weak demand. The factory inventory decreased to 179.75 tons, 2.46 tons less than last Thursday, but remained at a high level [8]. - The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 78.57 tons, a 1.44% week - on - week decrease, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a 2.81 - percentage - point decrease [8]. Outlook - The industry contradiction has been alleviated in the short term, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The downstream float glass has stable daily melting volume, and the photovoltaic glass has good production and sales, which may support the soda ash price slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [9]. Group 5: Glass Market Market Data - On September 15, the FG601 contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 2.72%, with an increase of 30057 lots in positions [7]. Fundamentals - In early September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic glass market saw a price increase due to strong demand. The float glass supply - side pressure has eased, and the cost side has support, but the demand side is weak [10][11]. Outlook - The glass futures main contract is expected to show a short - term upward - fluctuating trend [11].

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 国林科技9月15日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，乙醛酸价格随市场供需变化、原材 料采购成本、客户订单量等情况产生波动，公司密切关注市场形势和政策变化，及时调整销售策略，稳 定产品市场供应。 ...

Core Insights - The overall price index for Linyi Mall in the current month is 102.47 points, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.03 points month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.74 points [1] Price Index Summary - Among 14 categories of goods, 5 categories saw price increases, 3 remained stable, and 6 experienced price declines. The top two categories with price increases are steel and lighting, while the top two categories with price declines are clothing and board materials [3] Steel Category - The steel category's price index reached 97.66 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.34 points. Subcategories such as profiles, pipes, and boards saw increases of 0.51 points, 0.40 points, and 0.26 points respectively, while construction steel experienced a decrease of 0.07 points. The rise in prices is attributed to national growth policies and the acceleration of major infrastructure projects, which boosted market confidence. The increase in profile prices is mainly due to rising billet prices and production cuts from some steel mills due to equipment maintenance and environmental restrictions [5] Lighting Category - The lighting category's price index is 104.41 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.10 points. Subcategories such as lighting accessories and commercial lighting saw increases of 0.55 points and 0.12 points respectively, while outdoor lighting slightly increased by 0.01 points and home lighting slightly decreased by 0.02 points. The overall market for lighting is performing well, with sales of high-end products increasing [8] Clothing and Accessories Category - The clothing and accessories category's price index is 103.57 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.34 points. The accessories subcategory saw a decline of 0.49 points, while the clothing subcategory remained stable. The market is currently in a traditional off-season, leading to reduced retail demand and a shift towards wholesale business [11] Board Materials Category - The board materials category's price index is 95.85 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 points. The market is experiencing weak demand, particularly from the construction industry, which is affected by a sluggish real estate market. The overall sales volume is declining, and prices for some products are being adjusted downward due to fluctuations in raw material prices [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On September 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604 per ton, up 0.12%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $688 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $838 per ton, up 0.10%; the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, down 0.21% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,600 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,602 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,615 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,620 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $625 per ton (as of September 10), up 0.64% [1] - The near - far month spread of TA was - 86 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan; the basis was - 68 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 0.12%; the settlement price was 6,766 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,621 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $839 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $814 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $234 per ton, up 0.03% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $150 per ton, down 2.39%; the basis of PX was - 157 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,844 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,838 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; the settlement price was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [1] - The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The basis in the East China market was - 14 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 46 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,000 yuan per ton, down 1.06% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Startup and Production - Sales Information - On September 11, 2025, the startup rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.71%, up 1.12 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA factory in the PTA industry chain was 78.25%, unchanged; the load rate of the polyester factory was 88.25%, unchanged [1] - The load rate of the bottle chip factory was 73.27%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 65.54%, up 0.98 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 47.80%, down 21.20 percentage points; the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 71.44%, up 16.25 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53.63%, down 144.86 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22; two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] PX Summary - Due to the enhanced uncertainty in Eastern Europe after the Russian drone intrusion into Poland and the continuous impact in the Middle East, oil prices rose overnight. However, EIA inventory data showed a significant unexpected build - up of crude oil, and weak demand temporarily outweighed the expected impact of geopolitics on supply, causing oil prices to weaken during the day [2] - The cost - end oil market continued to run strongly, and the domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern. There were promotion activities in the polyester market, and the on - site wait - and - see atmosphere intensified, with no transaction heard during the day [2] - The fundamentals did not change significantly. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), with an intraday trading volume of 118,900 lots [2] - On the supply side, the Fuzhou and Fuhua devices did not operate as planned, the load of some devices increased, and the domestic PX startup increased. Some domestic and foreign PX devices restarted one after another, and the short - process profit margin expanded, so the PX supply increased more than expected [2] - Although it has entered the peak season of downstream polyester, new orders and loads have not shown unexpected performance, hitting market sentiment. Recently, the price of naphtha has trended strongly, and the PXN is expected to run weakly [2] PTA Summary - The demand performance in the peak season was poor. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,688 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 442,000 lots [2] - The high production - sales rate of downstream polyester filament could not be maintained, crude oil failed to rise strongly, the PTA spot supply was sufficient, the PTA market declined slightly, and the spot basis weakened [2] - The current processing margin also faces loss pressure for some new - technology PTA devices. There is new capacity release in the downstream, but due to the planned production cuts of some enterprises, the short - term market supply may remain stable [2] - Overall, the supply pressure of polyester filament has not increased significantly. In the short term, the impact of the demand side on the market price will still be relatively limited, and the market trading atmosphere may continue to be dull [2] - Although the social inventory of PTA is not high, the liquidity is relatively loose, and the weak demand has raised market concerns [2] PR Summary - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,830 - 5,910 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotation of bottle chips was stable, downstream terminals were cautious and wait - and - see, and the trading atmosphere was weak [2] - The downstream demand for PR was average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,844 yuan per ton (up 0.03%), with an intraday trading volume of 34,300 lots [2] - Recently, the startup of the bottle chip supply side has been stable, and the market spot supply is loose. Downstream terminals continue to make rigid purchases, and the trading atmosphere is cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

Summary of the Conference Call for Tianji Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing strong demand, primarily driven by growth in the energy storage sector, with an optimistic demand growth rate of 25%-30% expected through 2026 [2][3] - The market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share, which has recently approached 80% [4] - The supply-demand situation is currently tight, with rising lithium carbonate prices increasing raw material costs, leading to price hikes for small batch orders [16] Company Performance - Tianji Co., Ltd. has significantly increased its lithium hexafluorophosphate production, expecting to produce approximately 24,000 tons in the second half of the year, a rise of 9,000 tons compared to the first half [2][7] - The nominal annual production capacity is 37,000 tons, with actual capacity potentially reaching 45,000 tons [8] - The company plans to invest nearly 400 million yuan in a new 15,000-ton production line, with equipment costs estimated at 25-26 million yuan per ton [2][28] Sales and Market Share - In 2025, Tianji's total sales are projected to be close to 40,000 tons, with C customers accounting for approximately 40% of sales [11] - The market share among C customers is estimated to be around 30%-35%, with expectations of over 25% growth in sales to these customers in 2026 [12][13] Pricing and Cost Structure - Tianji is currently operating at a break-even point with a sales price of around 55,000 yuan per ton, with production costs for new capacity slightly above 50,000 yuan per ton [5][17] - The cost difference between old and new production lines is approximately 10,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [18] Future Outlook - The company anticipates limited new capacity additions in the first half of 2026, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance and potential price increases [20] - If the growth rate reaches 30% in 2026, a supply shortage is likely, further solidifying the market position of leading companies [21] - The overall effective capacity in the industry is expected to be below 300,000 tons, with the top companies collectively holding about 200,000 tons of capacity [24] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is challenging for smaller companies, many of which are operating at reduced capacity or have ceased production due to cost pressures [25][27] - The top three companies maintain communication and collaboration to navigate market changes and avoid destructive competition [30] Financial Performance - Tianji has reported consecutive losses in 2024 and 2025, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the need for periodic market adjustments [31] - The company has effectively managed inventory write-downs, with no significant impacts on the third quarter's performance [37] Raw Material Prices - Key raw materials, including anhydrous hydrofluoric acid and phosphorus pentachloride, have shown stable pricing trends, with the latter experiencing a decline due to oversupply [32] Customer Relationships - Pricing negotiations with major customers like BYD and CATL are structured around long-term contracts, with adjustments based on market conditions [33][34] International Operations - Tianji currently supplies a small volume of products overseas but has no immediate plans for overseas manufacturing due to high costs [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].