客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二 （2 月 24 日） A 股迎来马年开门红，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.87%，收报 4117.41 点；深 证成指涨 1.36%，收报 14291.57 点；创业板指涨 0.99%，收报 3308.26 点。沪深京三市成交额达到 22184 亿，较 上一交易日放量 2193 亿。 沪深 300 指数 2 月 24 日强势。收盘 4707.54，环比上涨 47.14。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 【焦炭 焦煤】2 月 24 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1641.3，环比下跌 38.1。 2 月 24 日焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1115.5 元，环比下跌 18.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦企维持正常运行负荷持稳。库存受春节物流运输影响，场内库存有所累库。需求，钢厂开工有所下 滑，铁水产量支撑有限，终端需求处淡季，对焦炭的需求进一步削弱。 焦煤：焦企维持前期负荷。库存去库明显，多数处偏低水平。利润维持在盈亏平衡线附近。进口，港口库存 有所下降，但整体供需格局仍然偏 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年02月25日08时14分 报告导读： 供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求 处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速 增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价目前已经跌破了 12 月低点的支撑，暂时以下行趋势对待，而且持仓量增加，说明空 头更主动。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，不建议追空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 操作建议： 空单可轻仓持有 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2026/2/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/13 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 476.8 | 460. 7 | -16. 10 | 成交情况: P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, the market will be affected by factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical uncertainties. For other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, their prices will be influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations. Traders are advised to participate with light positions before the Spring Festival to control risks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose. The WTI March contract closed up $0.67 to $64.63 per barrel, a 1.05% increase. The Brent April contract closed up $0.6 to $69.4 per barrel, a 0.87% increase. SC2604 closed at 479.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.9 yuan, a 0.82% increase. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000. EIA data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories increased while distillate inventories decreased. OPEC reported that global demand for OPEC+ oil in Q2 would decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, and there would be a slight surplus. The oil market is expected to be volatile, and traders are advised to use light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 2,860 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 2.32% to 3,357 yuan per ton. As of February 11, the operating rate of Chinese local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.31%, up 0.26 percentage points from last week. The Singapore low - sulfur market is under pressure, but the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening. The market is expected to be volatile, and light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the SHFE rose 0.51% to 3,358 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory of domestic refineries' asphalt was 24.67%, up 0.72% month - on - month; the social inventory rate was 25.87%, up 0.24% month - on - month; the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 29.93%, down 1.76% month - on - month. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. Light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,260 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; EG2605 closed at 3,764 yuan per ton, up 0.83%. PX, PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations and potential unplanned shutdowns of polyester raw materials during the Spring Festival [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 240 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The cost - end raw material prices are supported by inventory building, but the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to risks during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high - level shock, and Iranian supply remains low. The demand has rigid support, but the MTO unit load is still low. Iranian shipments are expected to decline in February, which may support prices. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7][9]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream production is high as there are no large - scale maintenance plans for upstream units, and downstream factories are gradually shutting down. Polyolefins are expected to start accumulating inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market in different regions shows different trends. The demand is weakening as domestic real - estate construction slows down before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the price is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change in basis rate compared to the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - On February 11, US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran continue. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 70,000, and the December data was revised downward to an increase of 48,000. The severe cold and snowstorms in the US did not affect the enterprise survey for calculating employment [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [17][19][21][23] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document shows charts of the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [34][37][41] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides charts of the spreads between different contracts for various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The document presents charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document shows charts of production profits and processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of Everbright Futures Research Institute Zhong Meiyan, the director of energy and chemical research Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, achievements, and qualification numbers [76][77][78][79] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [81]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various commodities having different outlooks, including oscillations, weakening, strengthening, and stable trends. For example, some commodities like rubber are expected to be oscillating and strengthening, while others like PVC are likely to experience weak oscillations [2][14][67]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran negotiations and the situation in the Middle East have an impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing uncertainties in prices and supply - demand dynamics [6][21]. - The demand and supply fundamentals of different commodities vary. For instance, in the PX - PTA - MEG industrial chain, the supply and demand patterns of each product are affected by factors like device maintenance, production rates, and downstream demand [12][13]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. The PX operating rate rises, and the PXN processing fee is continuously compressed. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [12]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450. The terminal demand has mixed performance, and the polyester operating rate is expected to pick up in March. Multiple devices have announced maintenance plans [12]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis and monthly spread. The supply has increased this week, but overseas supply is expected to decrease in March. The demand side has seen large - scale shutdowns of polyester, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure in February [13]. Rubber - It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The futures prices of rubber have increased, and the spot prices of various rubber varieties have also risen slightly. The inventory in the Qingdao area has increased, and the semi - steel tire enterprises are in different production stages [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber have changed. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has also declined [17][18]. LLDPE - The spot trading has stagnated, and due to capital risk - aversion, it is in an oscillating market. The raw material oil price has stabilized after a decline, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the downstream demand has mixed performance. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [20][21]. PP - The C3 raw materials are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost side has oscillations, the supply side has no new production before the 2605 contract, and the demand side has limited support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [23][24]. Caustic Soda - The cost has increased, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous logic of short - selling caustic soda profits may be challenged. The demand side has a weak pattern, and the supply side may see production cuts and load reduction after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [28]. Pulp - It is in an oscillating state. The trading in the pulp market is light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing activities have basically stopped. The market lacks driving factors, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and macro - market impacts [33][34]. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume has decreased, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market trading is light [40][41]. Methanol - It is in an oscillating state. The methanol spot price index has adjusted regionally. The port inventory has decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The MTO fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be limited in both upward and downward directions [46][47]. Urea - It is oscillating with support. The support comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level at around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [49][50]. Styrene - It is in a high - level oscillating state. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie production capacity. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival, and the pure benzene pattern is expected to improve after the second quarter [51][52]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, the enterprise devices are operating stably, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has basically completed pre - holiday stocking. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [53][54]. LPG - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [57]. Propylene - The spot price is stable, and the basis is converging. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene have changed, and the industrial chain operating rates have also fluctuated [58]. PVC - It is in a weakly oscillating state. The PVC spot market is stable, but the supply - demand is weak, and the export atmosphere has weakened. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to be under pressure before the holiday [65][66]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term volatility is decreasing. The low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the night session, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is still at a low level [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) have declined, and the spot market freight rate is stable before the holiday. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance in March - April, and the 2610 contract has a reference pressure level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [70][78]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating state. The short - fiber futures are oscillating strongly, but the downstream is on holiday, and the trading volume is small. The bottle - chip factory has raised the quotation, but the market trading atmosphere is average [81][82]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. The prices of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable. The large - scale paper mills are producing stably, some small and medium - sized paper mills have shut down, and the market is on holiday [84][85]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strongly oscillating state. The futures prices of pure benzene have increased slightly, and the spot prices have decreased slightly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the trading volume in Shandong has been reported [88][89].

Report Title - Pure Benzene & Styrene Weekly Report: Market Sentiment Ebbs, Pure Benzene and Styrene Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The styrene market sentiment fluctuates significantly, and pure benzene and styrene are running in a volatile manner. The fundamentals of styrene are improving, and the market is running strongly. The trading strategy for the single - side is bullish, but geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Demand**: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 312,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 188,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 101.29%, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 108,600 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a rise of 7.95%. The commercial inventory was 60,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.41%, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis strengthened. As prices rebounded, the operating load of styrene plants recovered, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Profit**: The styrene - naphtha spread widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread rose to $232. Styrene profits were significantly repaired, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Valuation**: Market sentiment dropped significantly, and overseas export demand drove up prices, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: On the evening of February 4, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Investment View**: The styrene fundamentals are improving, and the market is running strongly with a volatile trend [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The single - side strategy is bullish, and geopolitical risks need to be monitored [4]. PART TWO: Pure Benzene & Styrene Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran affects crude oil prices [6]. - **Styrene**: Styrene plant profits continue to expand, and the supply side is gradually recovering [16][28]. PART THREE: Polymer Demand Overview - **ABS**: ABS has entered the stage of active inventory reduction [52]. - **PS**: The production profit of PS is at a low level, and demand has entered the off - season [66]. - **EPS**: The price of EPS has rebounded slightly [76]. - **Overseas Benzene Market**: Driven by strong energy prices, the overseas benzene market has risen. However, downstream demand is under pressure, and multiple styrene plants are planned to be shut down in the first quarter. The US benzene price is lower than that in Europe, and the arbitrage window has opened. The winter storm has limited impact on supply. European pure benzene has become the global price high, about $80 higher than in the US and nearly $200 higher than in Asia. European supply is limited due to unstable plant operations. Although the cracking spread is still economically viable for extraction, rising energy costs have squeezed profits. The market is supported by short - term spot shortages, but there are concerns about future supply - demand surpluses [75]. - **Asian Benzene Market**: The rebound of Asian benzene is mainly driven by the improvement of the styrene industry's profitability, the recovery of production, and the resumption of exports to the US. The benzene - naphtha spread has widened to $187, supporting the economic viability of aromatic extraction. High pure benzene inventories and the widening toluene spread limit the increase, and import demand is weak. Plants such as CNOOC, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinopec Shanghai have restarted one after another, and the new cracking plant of BASF in Guangdong has been operating stably, while the short - term shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming plant has limited impact. South Korean cracking plants have shifted to naphtha raw materials, increasing the by - production of benzene. PX and TDP plants are operating stably, and supply is expected to be abundant in February. The current price difference between the US and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The overall supply - demand in the Asian benzene market is balanced, mainly supported by styrene demand [84]. - **Overseas Styrene Market**: The impact of the storm on the overseas styrene market was short - lived. Some plants in Texas were temporarily shut down and then restarted, with limited overall production losses. Quotes in the North American market are scarce, and the arbitrage window between the US and Europe has opened, with a spread of $69. However, US exports are limited by plant shutdown plans and logistics disruptions. Styrene in Europe has strengthened for two consecutive weeks, and the increase in styrene has significantly outperformed that of raw material benzene, with the spread widening to $200. The overall supply is stable, but short - term imports from the Middle East are restricted, and the import volume from the US and Europe in January was only about 20kt. As the spring maintenance season approaches, downstream replenishment demand has increased, and combined with the expectation of the peak season in the second quarter, market concerns about supply shortages have intensified [94]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory of phenol has declined rapidly [96]. - **Adipic Acid**: The profit and operating load of adipic acid have declined [107]. - **Caprolactam**: The operating load and inventory of caprolactam have increased [119]. - **Home Appliances**: The demand for home appliances is waiting for an increase [128]. - **Asian Styrene Market**: The price and economic situation of Asian styrene have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising costs. The styrene - naphtha spread has widened to $419, and the styrene - benzene spread has reached $232. Producers have returned above the cash break - even line. Although the market is worried that the approaching Spring Festival holiday, pressured polymer profits, and the restart of some plants will suppress demand, strong exports, short - term supply gaps caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the strong spot price. On the supply side, multiple plants are still under maintenance or shut down due to failures, and some production capacities in Taiwan, China, and Japan are planned to resume in February; Middle East supply is expected to gradually return in February, but new maintenance plans in March will limit the increase in supply. On the demand side, there is a divergence: the operation of PS and ABS downstream of styrene is stable, but the operation of EPS has declined, and high costs are squeezing polymer profits, and some manufacturers are considering production cuts or even reselling styrene raw materials [133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant increase, with WTI March contract closing at $65.14 per barrel, up $1.93 (3.05%) [2][14] - Brent April contract closed at $69.46 per barrel, up $2.13 (3.16%) [2][14] - EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventory by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2024 [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 3.98% to 2797 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 3.39% to 3268 yuan/ton [3][17] - China's refining capacity utilization rate for reduced pressure was 68.05%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2603 increased by 1.69% to 3361 yuan/ton [5][18] - Social inventory rate for asphalt rose to 25.43%, up 0.64% week-on-week [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 rose by 205 yuan/ton to 16385 yuan/ton [6][19] - Natural rubber social inventory in China increased by 0.9 million tons to 128.1 million tons, a 0.7% increase [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5218 yuan/ton, up 1.32%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7296 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [7][20] Methanol - Domestic methanol prices showed a mixed trend, with Taicang spot price at 2238 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia at 1797.5 yuan/ton [8][21] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly in February, while demand may decline due to MTO unit repairs [8][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China polypropylene (PP) ranged from 6550 to 6750 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][22] - The market is expected to see an increase in inventory as the holiday approaches [9][22] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a strong adjustment, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4820 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][23] - The market is facing weak demand from the real estate sector, which may limit support for PVC downstream products [10][23] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56% day-on-day, with stable prices in the spot market [11][24] - Daily production of urea was reported at 21.03 million tons, with a slight increase expected due to the resumption of gas-based production [11][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1229 yuan/ton, up 2.08%, with stable prices in the spot market [12][26] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.37%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [12][26] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1109 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with stable prices in the spot market [13][27] - Concerns about supply fluctuations are present as multiple production lines are planned for resumption [13][27]

Group 1 - Fuel oil futures showed a significant downward trend, with the main contract reported at 2687.00 yuan/ton, a sharp decline of 6.73% [1] - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.938 million barrels, marking a 37-week low as of the week ending January 28 [2] - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's trading division has leased fuel oil storage facilities in Singapore for the first time [2] Group 2 - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) emphasized the importance of full compliance with oil production targets [2] - According to Ruida Futures, the fuel oil market is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with price volatility expected due to fluctuations in crude oil and geopolitical tensions [3] - Southwest Futures noted that tightening supply in Singapore is bullish for fuel oil prices, and rising crude oil costs are likely to drive fuel oil prices upward [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market of various energy - chemical products shows diverse trends, including high - level oscillations, declines, and range - bound operations. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread, while rubber is in a wide - range weakening trend [2][12]. - The fundamentals of different products vary. Some are affected by factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and geopolitical risks. For instance, the supply of PTA is in a cumulative pattern, and the demand for rubber may face a short - term callback risk due to high prices [12][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, with an increase in domestic and overseas device starts, and it is entering a cumulative inventory pattern. PXN processing fees have rebounded, and PTA processing fees above 450 are recommended to be shorted on rallies [12]. - **PTA**: In an interval oscillating market with a bearish monthly spread. The demand for polyester is expected to decline marginally, and it is in a cumulative inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [13]. - **MEG**: In a unilateral interval oscillating market. The supply device start - up rate has increased, and imports remain high. The demand for polyester is expected to decline in the short term, and it is difficult to change the cumulative inventory pattern [13]. 3.2 Rubber - In a wide - range weakening trend. The import volume in January is expected to decrease compared with December, but it is still at a high level. The global supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and the cost side supports the rubber price. However, downstream demand is resistant to high - priced raw materials, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In a high - level decline pattern. Macro - level factors such as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve nominations affect the market sentiment. Some valuation indicators are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation from downstream enterprises has increased [20]. 3.4 LLDPE - The import profit has narrowed, and the offer is limited, but it is supported by oil prices. The raw material price of crude oil has strengthened, and the ethylene monomer link has continued to weaken. The mid - stream trading is active, but the downstream has not followed up to replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival [21][22]. 3.5 PP - Supported by the rising oil price cost. The cost side of crude oil and propane is strong, and the supply has no new production before the 2605 contract. The demand is mainly driven by new orders for downstream rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Supported by cost, with strong future expectations. The previous logic of shorting caustic soda profits may be challenged in the later stage. Although the spot is weak in the short term, the market has strong expectations for the future. Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [28]. 3.7 Pulp - In a wide - range oscillating trend. The supply - demand fundamentals remain at a weak rigid - demand level, with continuous pressure on port inventory on the supply side and no improvement in demand on the demand side. The market lacks upward driving force [33][34]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price of float glass in most regions remains stable, with only partial price increases in the central China region. The market demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory regions [37][38]. 3.9 Methanol - Oscillating with support. The macro - level sentiment is weak, but the international energy price provides support. The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the high - level operation of port inventory suppresses the upside space. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [43]. 3.10 Urea - Oscillating and falling. The macro - level sentiment is weak, and the small - scale state reserve release suppresses speculative signals. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The downstream profit is continuously squeezed, and it is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The inventory is in a seasonal cumulative pattern, and the upward driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart of parking devices [48][49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply of soda ash enterprises is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average, with purchases on demand. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price may oscillate weakly and stably [54]. 3.13 PVC - The sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production reduction expectations in the short term. However, it still faces a pattern of high production and high inventory, and attention should be paid to the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [58][59]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: In a strong - oscillating trend with a continuation of high - volatility. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [62]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - In an oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show a downward trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity and geopolitical risks [64]. 3.16 Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short Fiber**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The futures are weak, and the spot price of the factory rises slightly. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are polarized [76]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The upstream raw material futures oscillate and fall, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [76][77]. 3.17 Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the cost is slightly reduced, and the profit is slightly improved. The market trading atmosphere is weak [79][80][82]. 3.18 Pure Benzene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The port inventory is in a cumulative pattern, and the spot price has increased. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the price difference between pure benzene and other products [84][85].