Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2][2]. Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR quotations for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repurchase rate) throughout the month, indicating no changes in the pricing basis for LPR [2][2]. - Market interest rates have recently risen, influenced by factors such as anti-involution trends, which has reduced the motivation for banks to lower the LPR quote further, especially given the historically low net interest margins [2][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Future Expectations - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is fundamentally attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments to strengthen counter-cyclical regulation [2][2]. - Industry experts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in LPR quotations [2][2].

Group 1 - The domestic money market interest rates have shown an overall upward trend this week, driven by increased short-term funding demand due to government bond issuance and a recovery in domestic financing demand [1] - As of August 18, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 1-week, 2-week, 1-month, 9-month, and 1-year rates were reported at 1.436%, 1.483%, 1.537%, 1.528%, 1.633%, and 1.643% respectively, with increases of 12.1, 5.1, 8.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.5 basis points compared to August 11 [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale for July was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, marking the highest growth rate in the past 18 months [1] Group 2 - The market is expected to see a "short weak long strong" trend, with short-term funding demand likely to decrease as the government bond issuance deadline approaches on August 19, while medium to long-term interest rates may remain stable or increase due to improving financing data and rising market risk appetite [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that since July, market interest rates have risen significantly, policy rates have shown an anchoring effect, and policy rates have fallen from high levels, causing treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. However, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates strong risk appetite, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation on the strong side; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation on the strong side; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out yesterday. Due to the significant rise in market interest rates since July, the anchoring effect of policy rates appeared, and policy rates fell from high levels, leading to a bottom - out rebound of treasury bond futures. However, the high trading volume in the stock market restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures, and treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate. The reasons include the central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week, a tightening of market liquidity, a rise in market interest rates due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, limited upward space for market interest rates due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, the existence of insufficient domestic effective demand, the need for a loose monetary environment to support the economy in the second half of the year, an expected interest rate cut, and the unchanged LPR in July making a short - term interest rate cut less likely [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week tightened market liquidity and raised market interest rates. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to a positive macro - economic outlook and a rise in market interest rates since July. The upward space for market interest rates is limited due to the policy rate anchor. There is still insufficient domestic effective demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, with an expected interest rate cut. However, the unchanged LPR in July makes a short - term interest rate cut less likely, so short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of liquidity, tightening the loose state of market liquidity and causing market interest rates to rise. Since July, due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and positive macro - economic expectations, market interest rates have gradually increased. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for further upward movement of market interest rates is limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. But the LPR remained unchanged in July, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On July 24, 2025, the central bank announced that on July 25, it will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid manner. - On July 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating interest rate of 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that the strengthening of the euro may suppress inflation more than previously expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implications - Since the last meeting, market interest rates have risen [1] - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that market interest rates have increased since the last meeting [1] Group 1 - The rise in market interest rates indicates a shift in monetary policy dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 23, 2025, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight pullback, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and rebounding throughout the day. Recently, the China-US economic and trade situation has tended to ease. Coupled with the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite in the capital market, Treasury bond futures have had a short - term pullback. However, the current market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is relatively limited, which means the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, and the LPR remained unchanged in July. In the short term, the upward space for Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On July 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured on this day, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 369.6 billion yuan [4]