Domestic Insights - Export growth continues to decline, with June's port cargo throughput falling below the same period in 2024, indicating a significant drop in export growth[6] - Domestic demand shows structural differentiation, with actual economic growth continuing to trend downward; investment remains weak, and real estate transactions show limited recovery[6] - Central fiscal policy is actively promoting initiatives, with net financing of government bonds reaching a recent high in mid-June, indicating a focus on livelihood areas[6] - The global equity asset bubble is the only path forward, with a strong emphasis on potential upward risks in equity assets in the second half of the year; Hong Kong stocks are expected to outperform A-shares[1] International Insights - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, with monetary policy not expected to be the focus of asset pricing until late August and mid-September meetings[2] - The probability of simultaneous escalation in Middle Eastern tensions and tariffs is low; if oil prices rise due to geopolitical tensions, tariff policies may ease, leading to a high likelihood of rate cuts within the year[2] - The U.S. Senate passed the Stablecoin Act on June 17, which may allow for a new form of liquidity provision without significant rate cuts, altering the valuation logic of global equity assets[2][7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for several key companies, including Xining Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [8]. Core Viewpoints - The market remains in a state of fluctuation, with the non-ferrous sector outperforming the black metal sector. Financial attributes of metals like gold, silver, and copper are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [2]. - The macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5% in May, indicating an overall expansion in economic output [4][12]. - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in profitability across the black metal supply chain, with some companies undervalued and presenting good strategic investment opportunities [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has slightly decreased to 2.417 million tons, with a minor decline in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 90.6% [3][11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 0.1%, with a narrowing decline rate of 2.2 percentage points [23][25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has weakened, with rebar consumption dropping by 7.9% week-on-week [38][49]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 2.0% [40]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have declined, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $96.1 per ton, down 0.7% week-on-week [57]. - The average daily iron ore import volume at 45 ports has increased by 17.9% week-on-week [57]. Price and Profit Analysis - Steel prices are showing a slight improvement, with the current spot price for rebar in Beijing at 3,170 RMB per ton, up 1.9% week-on-week [73]. - The immediate gross profit for long-process rebar is reported at -134 RMB per ton, indicating a slight improvement in margins [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strategy meeting highlighted the investment opportunities in the banking wealth management market amidst high volatility, emphasizing the importance of rational investment strategies and asset allocation [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Wang Dong from Huayin Wealth Management suggests that investors should rationally view short-term market fluctuations and focus on assets with stable cash flows [1][7]. - The necessity of equity investment in wealth management products is emphasized, as pure fixed-income products fail to capture the benefits of corporate asset appreciation [2][4]. - A diversified investment portfolio should include both linear and non-linear tools to balance risk and return, adapting to the high volatility of financial assets [7]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Wang Dong identifies three key considerations for equity investment: ensuring options are not overly expensive, avoiding valuation traps by selecting high-quality companies, and frequently rebalancing equity positions due to the short duration of wealth management products [4][6]. - Multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches are recommended to enhance portfolio robustness and achieve long-term compounding advantages [5][6]. - The importance of matching client profiles with product positioning is highlighted, ensuring that investment strategies align with individual risk preferences and market conditions [7]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The global market has experienced significant turbulence, with a notable decline in U.S. stocks and bonds, while Chinese assets have remained stable, indicating a shift in macroeconomic narratives [6][7]. - The current environment is characterized by rising geopolitical risks and a potential historical turning point, necessitating a cautious approach to investment [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to embrace stable cash flow assets and consider long-term strategies that capitalize on structural opportunities amidst uncertainty [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a weak performance in A-shares in March, with a divergence in Hong Kong stocks, a decline in US stocks, a rise in gold, and a pullback in the bond market. It suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a Kondratiev wave downturn, impacting various asset classes [1][2]. Global Macro Outlook - The report predicts that the peak year-on-year GDP for the US will be in Q1 2025, for Japan in Q2 2025, and for the Eurozone also in Q2 2025. It anticipates a temporary improvement in the yen's performance against the dollar and a strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the future. Additionally, it forecasts that gold priced in dollars will continue to strengthen [1][3]. Asset Price and Fundamental Outlook - According to analyst expectations, the forecasted ROE for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 is 7.38% and 6.42%, respectively, with slight adjustments from the previous month. The intrinsic value estimate for the CSI All A Index in Q2 2025 is projected to be 5,343 points. The report also notes that the ten-year Chinese government bond yield is deviating from historical cyclical patterns [3]. Industry and Style Rotation - The report identifies high economic sentiment in industries such as agriculture, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, transportation, and non-bank financials. Currently, institutional focus is on non-bank financials and transportation, while interest in light manufacturing, automotive, consumer services, and comprehensive industries has decreased. Recent increases in institutional attention have been noted in the "petroleum and petrochemicals," "non-ferrous metals," "steel," "consumer services," and "real estate" sectors. The machinery sector is approaching a crowded indicator threshold, while the machinery, automotive, and food and beverage sectors are in a sustained crowded state [4].