Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - **Analysis**: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - **Analysis**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - **Logic**: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - **Analysis**: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - **Analysis**: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - **Logic**: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and concerns about supply disruptions remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, the potential for incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December 2026 was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at a record low of $0/ton and $0 cents/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed. - **Logic**: The Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. Copper supply is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, the long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic [7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the alumina spot price in the north was flat, while the national weighted index and prices in some regions declined. The alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory accumulation trend, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises are promoting the "aluminum for copper" standard, and a company is transferring its production capacity. - **Logic**: The US interest - rate cut expectation remains, and China's "two new" policies are continuing. The supply is constrained in the medium term, and although high prices have suppressed demand in the short term, the overall supply - demand outlook is positive [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of Baotai ADC12 was flat. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The supply is constrained by raw material shortages and policy factors, while the demand is expected to improve with the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy. The inventory shows a mixed trend [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and zinc prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia is damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is relatively stable. The zinc ore supply is short - term tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high, but there is a downward risk in the long term [17][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has cooled, and social inventory has accumulated, leading to a downward trend in lead prices. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable. The supply is increasing as smelters resume production, while the demand is weakening, especially in the electric bicycle sector [22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations are conflicting with the weak reality, and nickel prices have回调. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory decreased. SMM predicts a significant increase in the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in the second half of January. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. The policy on Indonesian nickel ore quotas is uncertain, which affects the market outlook [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The decline in nickel prices has led to a downward trend in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 has a certain premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Although the production in January may increase slightly, the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply constraints are intensifying, and tin prices are expected to be strong. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, while the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are limiting tin production. The demand for tin is increasing in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors, and the low inventory in the industry chain also supports prices [26][27]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.30% to 2425.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.28% to 2779.12, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.52% to 2348.14. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 13 was 2809.16, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day decline of 1.30%, a 1 - month increase of 8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.59% [150][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and due to supply disruptions, the supply - demand situation for copper, aluminum, and tin is expected to tighten, with a positive outlook on their prices [2]. - For different metals: - Copper: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices will continue to trade at high levels [3][8]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and will fluctuate [3][9]. - Aluminum: With an optimistic macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate upwards [3][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The price has rebounded as it tracks the aluminum ingot [3][15]. - Zinc: The social inventory is decreasing again, and zinc prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][16]. - Lead: The social inventory is accumulating, and lead prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][19]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesia's policy expectations, nickel prices will fluctuate upwards [3][20]. - Stainless steel: As ferronickel prices continue to rise, the stainless - steel futures will run strongly [3][25]. - Tin: With strengthened supply constraints, tin prices will rise further [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Information analysis**: The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected. The copper concentrate long - term processing fee for 2026 was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had a large increase in the average premium compared to the previous trading day. There were strikes at a Chilean copper mine, and the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador was postponed [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic factors suggest that the Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is currently weak but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to supply constraints and disruptions [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot prices of alumina in various regions mostly declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased [9][10]. - **Main logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak. However, due to low valuations, more funds are focusing on this variety, and price fluctuations may increase [10]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the current supply - demand is in surplus but the valuation is low [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, and a company transferred its aluminum production capacity [13]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is positive with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "two new" policies. The supply has constraints in the medium term, while the current high prices are suppressing demand, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and supply - demand expectation are positive [13]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term [13][14]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of a certain type of aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [15]. - **Main logic**: The cost is strongly supported as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversion, and the demand is currently based on rigid procurement but is expected to improve in the medium term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse receipt inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short and medium term due to strong cost support and relatively stable supply - demand [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. A railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting the zinc concentrate supply [16][17]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is stable with some fluctuations. The zinc ore supply is currently tight, and the smelter's profit is declining. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short term, the zinc ingot export will continue, and the social inventory may continue to decrease. In the long term, the supply may increase while the demand growth is limited [18]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has increased in January, the demand is in the off - season, but the export and the strong non - ferrous metal sector support the price [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots increased, the social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The lead consumption was weak, and the inventory accumulated due to the approaching contract delivery [19]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the premium decreased, and the original - recycled lead price difference was stable. The supply increased as the recycled lead smelters in Anhui resumed production, although the profit was narrowing. The demand from the electric bicycle sector was weak, while the demand from the automotive battery sector improved. The lead - acid battery enterprise's operating rate was still at a relatively high level compared to previous years [19]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has recovered, the demand is weakening marginally, the import window is open, but the waste battery cost remains high [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. It is expected that the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia will increase significantly in the second half of January. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota through RKAB to match the smelter's capacity [20][22][23]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains as the domestic and Indonesian nickel production is high. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The policy of Indonesia's nickel ore quota is uncertain [24]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. If the actual quota in Indonesia is low, the surplus expectation in 2026 will decline significantly [24]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The price of ferronickel increased, and Indonesia plans to adjust the production quota to match the smelter's capacity [25][26]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported as the ferronickel price has recovered. The production decreased in December and may increase slightly in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The social inventory has not increased significantly, but there may be pressure to accumulate inventory in the off - season [26][27]. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The production may increase slightly in January, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost support from the ore end exists [26][27]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions increased. The spot price of tin increased significantly [27]. - **Main logic**: Supply is the core concern. There are supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply of tin concentrate is tightening, and the processing fee is low, making it difficult to increase the refined tin production. The demand is expected to increase as the global economy is expected to improve, and the consumption in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors is rising [28]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate upwards as the supply risk is high and the inventory is low [28]. 3.2行情监测 - **Copper, Alumina, Aluminum, Aluminum alloy, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin**: No specific information provided in the given text, so no summary can be made. 3.3行情监测（商品指数） - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures' commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.85% to 2786.88, and the non - ferrous metal index increased by 1.86% to 2846.94 on that day [151][152].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled rapidly, leading to significant adjustments in base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the real demand is weak, but the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continued to be monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin persist. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract processing fee was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month and 7.5% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.38% from January to December. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will have a strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion support copper prices. However, the short - term market sentiment has cooled. Copper supply disruptions continue to intensify, and the supply is expected to tighten. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is weak in the short term but may tighten in the long term [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some declining. The alumina warehouse receipts were 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Main Logic**: The recent macro sentiment has magnified the price fluctuations. The high - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The inventory is still accumulating, and the cost support is average. The price is at the bottom and fluctuating, but the price volatility may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend [9]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum - for - copper" standard implementation work, and Henan Hengkang Aluminum transferred its production capacity [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic operating capacity and start - up rate are high, but the overseas supply has constraints. The high - level aluminum price has suppressed demand in the short term, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term macro - outlook and supply - demand expectations support the price [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortage and profit inversion, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement in the short term and may improve marginally in the medium term. The inventory has a slight decline in the social inventory but an increase in the warehouse receipt inventory [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [13]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different. As of January 8, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [15]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Lead increased. After the New Year's Day holiday, the upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain resumed trading, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium increased, and the supply decreased due to factors such as profit narrowing and environmental protection. The demand from the electric bicycle sector weakened, while that from the automotive battery sector improved, but the overall demand is in a downward trend [17]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile [18]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory increased. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister did not disclose the specific nickel ore quota. The price of sulfur in some regions increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota to match the downstream demand [18][19]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in an oversupply situation. The Indonesian nickel ore quota is expected to be unstable, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored [20]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was - 75 yuan/ton. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota [21]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported, but the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [21]. - **Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [22]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On January 8, the London tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai tin positions decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [24]. - **Main Logic**: The tin supply is facing problems such as production restrictions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is expected to increase due to factors such as the semiconductor industry's high growth and the need for inventory reconstruction [24]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased. The commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2773.31, with a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [151][152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, and tin are worth attention. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there is an expected tightening in supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. The macro - environment of loose liquidity supports copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the supply - demand for copper is expected to tighten [7]. - **Alumina**: Cost support is not very effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The cost support is average, and there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: With optimistic capital sentiment, aluminum prices have risen significantly. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and utilization rates are high, and there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and inventory has increased. In the short term, the positive macro - outlook and expected tightening of supply - demand suggest that aluminum prices will remain in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The cost support from tight scrap aluminum supply is solid. Supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversions. Demand is currently based on rigid needs, and the medium - term demand is expected to improve. With cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to remain in a strong - side oscillation in the short and medium terms [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The import ore TC has not stopped falling, and zinc prices have rebounded with the non - ferrous sector. The macro - outlook may be volatile. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and smelter profits are declining. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc prices may remain in high - level oscillation, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term [15][16]. - **Lead**: With the accumulation of social inventory, lead prices are oscillating with the non - ferrous sector. On the supply side, production has decreased due to environmental protection and other factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders are weak, while automobile battery orders are improving. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. - **Nickel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the market is oscillating. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026. On the supply side, there is pressure. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and the actual quota implementation needs to be monitored [18][20]. - **Stainless Steel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the stainless - steel market has corrected. The cost has some support. Production decreased in December, and there may be a slight increase in January. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate, and Indonesian policy changes need to be tracked [21][22]. - **Tin**: With continued capital games, tin prices are running strongly. Supply risks are high. On the supply side, there are disruptions in various regions, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow due to factors such as the semiconductor industry and new energy. Tin prices are expected to run strongly in an oscillating manner [22][24]. 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: No specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. - **Alumina**: On January 5, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a slight decline in Xinjiang. The alumina warehouse receipts were 156,917 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the SMM AOO average price was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On January 5, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 22,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Zinc**: On January 5, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were reported. As of January 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from December 31, 2025. In 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly [15][16]. - **Lead**: On January 5, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [17]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased slightly. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026 [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 5, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was reported [21]. - **Tin**: On January 5, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [24].

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand, with significant increases in copper, gold, silver, and other metals observed as the year ends [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Price Increases - The expectation of a weaker dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and a shift from balance sheet reduction to asset purchases, which could lead to increased liquidity in emerging markets and commodity markets [2]. - Improved demand expectations are linked to central banks and Wall Street investors increasing their purchases of gold, driving its price higher [2]. - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both an investment and an industrial metal, with demand rising from sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are experiencing high growth [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Metal Demand Drivers - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational infrastructure, with projections indicating that data centers will need large quantities of copper [3]. - Policies in China, such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," are expected to boost copper demand by supporting durable consumer goods and major engineering projects [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is benefiting from the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the U.S. and EU, where stable power supply and electric vehicle adoption are driving the need for lithium batteries [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - Supply disruptions are contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain metals like silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]. - Potential tariffs on non-ferrous metals proposed by the U.S. could lead to increased prices, prompting suppliers to stockpile metals like copper and silver in anticipation of price hikes [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand conditions [2][3][6] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with central banks and Wall Street investors becoming major buyers, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [3][6] - The silver market benefits from both investment demand and industrial applications, with the gold-silver ratio previously exceeding 80:1, which has influenced silver price increases [3][6] Group 2 - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to two main catalysts: the global development of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational resources, and China's policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6] - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the US, EU, and China, where lithium batteries are increasingly used for energy management [5][6] - The prices of polysilicon are rising due to industry stockpiling and increased demand for photovoltaic products from the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [5][6] Group 3 - The overall increase in demand for metals is attributed to three main factors: the growth of AI leading to higher demand for non-ferrous metals, the implementation of China's policies enhancing metal demand, and the global shift towards a green economy stimulating demand for new energy metals [6] - Supply disruptions are also contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain non-ferrous metals, such as silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]

摘要今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3364.89美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3368.46美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3364.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3364.89美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报 3368.46美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3364.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 聚焦美国与主要经济体之间的关税谈判进展，目前呈现出分化格局：日美经贸谈判取得了阶段性成果； 但欧美以及加拿大与美国之间的经贸协议尚未最终确定。尤为引人关注的是，欧盟近期释放出信号，若 贸易谈判破裂，将对美国采取关税反制措施。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 在第三次冲击3435美元失败后，金价开始回调。今日多头在3350美元附近展现支撑力——该水平曾是前 期阻力位，目前金价在3375美元这一另一关键前期阻力区附近反弹。 若继续上行，多头需先攻克3400美元，之后3435美元才会再度进入视野。从下行角度看，自上周反弹以 来，看 ...