FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 盘面轮动，股指缩量 市场分析 关注"十五五"主线。宏观方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业 体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。对外方面，中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全 利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 共识。海外方面，特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收低，沪指跌0.42%收于3897.71点，创业板指跌0.69%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，石油石化、轻工制造、家用电器行业领涨，传媒、有色金属、计算机、医药生物行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.59%报23413.67点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，特朗普近期公开表示拟于2026 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - On December 2nd, all four major stock index futures contracts declined. IF fell 0.32%, IH fell 0.4%, IC fell 0.63%, and IM fell 0.64%. The total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data - **IF**: The closing price of IF2512 was 4535.8, down 0.32%, with a basis of -18.53, a trading volume of 760.1 billion, a trading volume of 55827 contracts, a decrease of 12773 contracts, and an open interest of 138432 contracts, a decrease of 7168 contracts [1]. - **IH**: The closing price of IH2512 was 2971.4, down 0.4%, with a basis of -7.07, a trading volume of 224.4 billion, a trading volume of 25152 contracts, a decrease of 6884 contracts, and an open interest of 53855 contracts, a decrease of 5275 contracts [1]. - **IC**: The closing price of IC2512 was 6982.2, down 0.63%, with a basis of -58.1, a trading volume of 756.8 billion, a trading volume of 54148 contracts, a decrease of 10161 contracts, and an open interest of 127620 contracts, a decrease of 6889 contracts [1]. - **IM**: The closing price of IM2512 was 7239.6, down 0.64%, with a basis of -73.58, a trading volume of 1396.3 billion, a trading volume of 96449 contracts, a decrease of 11212 contracts, and an open interest of 181453 contracts, a decrease of 7566 contracts [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF decreased by 15395 contracts, IH decreased by 7934 contracts, IC decreased by 10749 contracts, and IM decreased by 12406 contracts [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF decreased by 5611 contracts, IH decreased by 5305 contracts, IC decreased by 3458 contracts, and IM decreased by 5286 contracts [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF**: For IF2512, long positions decreased by 5565, and short positions decreased by 7152. For IF2603, long positions increased by 473, and short positions increased by 346. For IF2606, long positions increased by 188, and short positions increased by 412 [5]. - **IH**: For IH2512, long positions decreased by 4471, and short positions decreased by 4910. For IH2603, long positions decreased by 365, and short positions decreased by 244 [5]. - **IC**: For IC2512, long positions decreased by 3958, and short positions decreased by 5483. For IC2603, long positions increased by 1343, and short positions increased by 1669. For IC2606, long positions increased by 796, and short positions increased by 766 [5]. - **IM**: For IM2512, long positions decreased by 4599, and short positions decreased by 6179. For IM2601, long positions increased by 1034, and short positions increased by 939. For IM2603, long positions decreased by 616, and short positions decreased by 659 [5]. 4. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1 [6]. - **Important Drives**: US President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman in early 2026. The A - share market declined with reduced trading volume, and the US three major stock indexes rose slightly [6][7].

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 | 共识，一致认为要坚定维护用生命和鲜血换来的二战胜利成果，坚决抵制任何为殖民侵略历史翻案的错误言行，坚决反击法西斯主义、日本军国主义卷土重来 | | 的图谋。双方就乌克兰危机深入交换意见。 | | | 日中友好议员联盟、日本经济团体联合会等日本部分组织已向中方传达希望近期访华的意愿。外交部发言人林剑在例行记者会上表示，注意到日本国内有很多 | | | 有识之士对高市早苗错误涉台言论引发的恶劣影响和严重后果深感忧虑。希望日本相关团体在日国内多发挥积极作用。 | | | 国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴 | | | 产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。 | | | 宏观信息 | 市场监管总局制定出台《市场监督管理信用修复管理办法》，为经营主体重塑信用提供规范统一、高效 ...

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首席点评： 白银延续强势 1 ）国际新闻 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指震荡回落，石油石化板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，市场成交额 1.61万亿元。 资金方面，12月01日融资余额增加102.08亿元至24667.08亿元。2025年12月，全球金融市场将迎来两大"政策风向标"： 美联储12月议息会议与中国中央经济工作会议，其中美联储议息策直接影响全球资本流向与风险偏好，而中央经济工 作会议作为"十五五"规划开局前的关键部署会议，将明确中国2026年经济政策框架与产业发展方向。在国内经济温和 复苏、全球流动性宽松预期升温的背景下，两大会议的政策共振，将影响12月A股节奏，更将为跨年行情与2026年投 资主线奠定基础。整体上我们认为在两大会议政策正式落地前，资金可能更偏谨慎，股市预计仍然偏震荡为主，资金 偏向防御性配置。待会议内容明确，积极政策信号与美联储降息形成共振，市场风险偏好有望再度提升。 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 (IH) | | 4 | | 股指 (IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指( ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huazhong Xinchang, is aligning its industrial and technological reserves with the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, and next-generation energy technologies [1] Group 1: New Energy Vehicles - The company is developing capabilities in automotive electronics and intelligent cockpit technologies, enhancing the self-sufficiency of the domestic supply chain [1] Group 2: Low-altitude Economy - The company is entering the aviation electronics sector, preparing to meet the technical requirements for low-altitude economic equipment [1] Group 3: Next-generation Energy Technologies - The company is proactively investing in next-generation power battery technologies, aligning with the industrialization direction of new power batteries [1]

Group 1: Industry Development - Liu Ning emphasized the importance of innovation-driven development in the bearing equipment industry cluster in Xin'an County, highlighting the application of bearing products in wind power and marine engineering [3] - The company Luoyang Beibo High-end Equipment Co., Ltd. produces glass deep processing equipment that is exported globally, showcasing the potential for high-end manufacturing [3] - The focus on building a modern industrial system includes strengthening key technology breakthroughs and enhancing the competitiveness of the industrial chain [3] Group 2: Aerospace and New Materials - At the Luoyang Aerospace Equipment Intelligent Innovation Industrial Park, Liu Ning discussed the development of the aerospace equipment industry and the importance of integrating resources and promoting innovation [4] - Luoyang Hanghui New Materials Co., Ltd. is recognized as a national-level "little giant" enterprise specializing in high-end titanium alloy materials, indicating a strong focus on advanced manufacturing technologies [4] - The emphasis on developing strategic emerging industries, such as new materials, aligns with national strategic needs and aims to enhance technological research and application scenarios [4] Group 3: Cultural Heritage and Tourism - Liu Ning visited the Qiantang Zhizhai Museum to assess the preservation and utilization of cultural relics, stressing the importance of protecting and promoting Chinese cultural heritage [4] - The integration of cultural heritage with tourism is seen as a vital area for development, aiming for creative transformation and innovative development of intangible cultural heritage [4] Group 4: Economic and Social Development - The focus on the "1+2+4+N" target task system aims to enhance the integration of technological and industrial innovation, strengthening county-level leading industries [5] - The goal is to improve the quality of industrial park construction and ensure the successful completion of annual objectives, contributing to the overall economic development strategy [5]

Core Insights - The New Materials 50 ETF (516710) increased by 0.29%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tianhua Xinneng rising over 10%, Nanda Optoelectronics over 6%, and Jinfatech over 5% [1] Industry Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests the development of emerging pillar industries, accelerating the growth of strategic emerging industry clusters in areas such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which could create several trillion-yuan markets [1] - According to Guoyuan Securities, new materials are crucial for new industrialization, and during the "14th Five-Year" period, materials like rare earth magnetic materials and tin-tungsten minor metals, which are critical, will receive policy support amid increasing international competition [1] Market Potential - These critical materials are not only essential for aerospace but also meet the demands of new energy batteries and high-end equipment industries, indicating that the market size will continue to expand alongside the development of downstream clusters [1] - The New Materials 50 ETF closely tracks the CSI New Materials Theme Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, inorganic non-metals, and other key strategic materials to reflect the overall performance of new materials theme stocks [1]

Group 1: Industry Development - Kaifeng Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on the research and production of all-vanadium flow battery energy storage systems, with an emphasis on the development of core components such as proton membranes, carbon felt, and bipolar plates [2] - The new "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes the integration of innovation facility construction, technology research and development, and product iteration to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries like new energy and new materials [2] - Kaifeng Ruihong Chemical Co., Ltd. has achieved significant market share in products like isooctanoic acid, resin, and phthalic anhydride, highlighting the importance of technological innovation in the fine chemical industry [2] Group 2: Community and Cultural Development - The oil workshop community in Gulou District has developed governance brands like the "Time Bank," showcasing replicable work experiences in community governance and enhancing public services [3] - The emphasis on the protection of cultural heritage, particularly the Song Dynasty culture, aims to promote systematic protection and unified management of cultural relics, while leveraging cultural tourism brands like the Chrysanthemum Cultural Festival [3] - The focus on enhancing public services in education, healthcare, and elderly care is part of a broader strategy to create a harmonious community through effective grassroots governance [3]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a blueprint for China's development over the next five years and is presented as an "opportunity list" for global investors [1] - China's market, with over 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income groups, offers significant consumption and import potential, creating continuous business opportunities for international investors [2] - The plan emphasizes a stable, diverse, resilient, and potential-rich economy, highlighting China's commitment to an open and competitive market environment [2][3] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand China's market further and enhance its openness to the world, focusing on aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules [3] - The reduction of foreign investment restrictions, particularly in the manufacturing sector, reflects China's commitment to high-level openness and stability in policy [3] - Multinational companies are increasingly investing in China, with significant projects in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and aerospace, indicating growth opportunities in these sectors [4] Group 3 - The plan promotes the integration of trade and investment, encouraging a rational and orderly cross-border layout of industrial and supply chains, which is beneficial for international investors [5] - China's complete industrial system and rich application scenarios are expected to translate imaginative opportunities into tangible growth dividends [4] - The stable social environment, high education levels of the workforce, and well-developed infrastructure in China present advantages for foreign investors seeking opportunities within the country's industrial chain [5]