Export Data Analysis - In May, China's export amount decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[4] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%[5] - The combined export growth to ASEAN and Latin America was only 2.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Data Insights - Imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of a 0.3% increase[7] - The decline in imports reflects ongoing challenges in domestic demand recovery, as indicated by the worsening impact on consumer prices[6] Market Dynamics - The slowdown in U.S. import demand has negatively affected China's export momentum, particularly to ASEAN and Latin America[5] - The global manufacturing new orders index dropped to 49.1%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable structural differentiation in export categories, with mechanical and high-tech products experiencing a continuous slowdown in growth rates[6] - Specific categories like integrated circuits have temporarily benefited from tariff exemptions, showing resilience amidst broader declines[6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent judicial challenge to Trump's tariffs, where the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were illegal, infringing on Congress's trade legislative authority [31] - Following the ruling, Trump appealed to the Federal Circuit Court, which issued a stay on the lower court's decision, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process [31] - The article highlights the performance of major asset classes, noting that U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, saw increases of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 rose by 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The article reports that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 4.41%, indicating a decline in bond yields across developed markets [13] - The dollar index increased by 0.3% to 99.44, while the offshore yuan strengthened to 7.2065 against the dollar [17][24] - Commodity prices generally declined, with WTI crude oil down 1.2% to $60.8 per barrel and COMEX gold down 1.8% to $3289.4 per ounce [26][29] Group 3 - The article notes that the April PCE inflation in the U.S. was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [37] - The meeting between Powell and Trump did not include discussions on interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the Fed's decisions are independent of presidential influence [33][55] - The article mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were slightly below expectations, while continuing claims were higher than anticipated, indicating potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [43]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on the US Economy - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on US imports has decreased to approximately 16%, yet remains at a historical high[15] - The average tariff on imports from China is now 42%, with the overall average tariff rate dropping from 27% to 16% following recent agreements[19] - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that these tariffs could reduce US GDP by 0.65 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.7 percentage points[23] Group 2: Monitoring Economic Indicators - The economic impact of tariffs can be monitored through three dimensions: trade, prices, and risk appetite[31] - In the short term, key economic indicators to watch include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures[2] - The first quarter saw a significant "import rush" in the US, with inventory levels rising, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable[2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming apparent, although the response of import prices has been insufficient so far[3] - Tariffs are expected to transmit increased costs from import prices to production and consumer prices, suppressing actual consumption demand[32] - There are signs that consumer purchasing power is weakening, with previous "panic buying" trends showing signs of exhaustion[3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The US economy may follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve[3] - High-frequency indicators suggest that investment, consumption, and employment in the US may weaken in the near term[3] - The potential for a "recession panic" cannot be ruled out if inflationary pressures continue to rise while economic growth slows[3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

"抢进口"：短期为美国经济提供缓冲 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 一季度在"抢进口"影响下，美国 GDP 环比增速转负。抢进口行为或能一定程度延 缓关税对美国经济的冲击，短期内或不会立刻看到美国通胀与就业数据恶化。在就 业市场仍稳，通胀反弹风险尚不明晰的情况下，美联储短期内或难以降息。 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 登记编号 S0880525040119 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 2025-05-06 宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.4.28-2025.5.2），全球大类资产价格 中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。日经 225 上涨 3.2%，标普 500 上涨 2.9%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%，发达市场股票指数上涨 2.9%，新兴市 场股票指数上涨 1.9%。大宗商品价格涨跌分化，其中，IPE 布油期 货上涨 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

"抢转口"适度支撑二季度出口，但美国需求下滑叠加透支效应，三季度出口承压更显 著。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 自 2024 年 11 月特朗普胜选后，美国企业便开始了"抢进口" ： 24 年 12 月，美国进口增速升至 12.8% ； 2025 年 1-2 月，美国进口增速突 破了 20% ，创下近年来新高。 分商品看，除汽车、零部件和发动机外（可能与年初美国汽车零售增速转负，需求不足有关），美国消费品、资本品、中间品的进口增速均明显上 行。其中， 2025 年 1-2 月， 工业用品和材料 的进口增速超过了 60% ，消费品的进口增速达到了 26.3% 。 细分商品来看（ SITC 二级口径），美国"抢进口"力度最大的是 杂项制品 ，包括玩具、游戏及运动用品、文具、印刷品、工艺品、装饰品等劳动 密集型制成品和日常消费品， 2024 年 12 月 -2025 年 2 月杂项制品的进口增长了 185.9% ，占美国进口金额比例从去年同期的 5% 提高到了 11.9% ，进口额达 1056 亿美元。 杂项制品进口大幅走高，一方面与相关商品的对外依赖度较高有关，比如美国玩具进口额占全球总进口额的 30% ， ...