特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎 [Table_Authors] 梁中华(分析师) 本报告导读： 对等关税被最高法院推翻后，特朗普政府会寻找更加坚实的法律依据重建关税框架， 我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。 投资要点： 对等关税被推翻，并非去通胀，我们认为再通胀的风险依然较高： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.21 | | 021-23219820 | | --- | --- | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | | 张剑宇(研究助理) | | | 021-38674711 | | | zhangjianyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124030031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 M2 增速：创新高的背后 2026.02.14 超级核心通胀压力仍存 2026.02.14 非农超预期：6 月前或暂停降息 2026.02.12 PPI 修复继续：输入性影响增加 2026.02.11 黄金大跌：后续如何看 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近日美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关 税违法，随后特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。该行认为再 通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。市场预期美元和美债波动率暂时 走高但幅度有限，并且关注怎么打补丁。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1、对等关税被推翻，补丁怎么打? 2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关税违法，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上 称，将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。 短期补丁：122临时关税。对等关税被裁定违法后，现行有效关税仅剩232和301关税，平均税率从 17.6%降至9%，短期内(150天)可靠122条款维持税率基本不变。中长期来看，232行业关税和301国别关 税将成为主要补丁。 中长期补丁：232和301关税。2025年232关税已经应用于汽车、钢铁、铝、铜、家具、卡车，年初添加 了半导体(但多数已豁免)。2025年已启动并正在调查的还有制药、飞机、关键矿产、无人机、风力涡轮 机、机器人和工业机械、多晶硅，多数可于 ...

（美股基准股指本周走势） 另一方面，裁决加剧市场对美国政府财政状况的担忧，尤其是债券投资者一直在质疑美国债务不断攀升的形势。美债价格当日收益率刷新日高， 基准十年期美债收益率曾升破4.10%，美元则走软。 （10年期美债收益率） 华尔街见闻提及，最高法裁决后特朗普动用替补工具，加征10%全球关税，放话关税会比之前"高得多"。政策混乱叠加疲软美元趋势，周五黄金 涨超2%、重回5100美元。现货白银大涨8%。 （金银铜铂本周上涨） 分析认为接下来的一段时间，混乱的关税政策和后续退税问题将引发多重市场反应，债务压力、政策不确定性与资产价格波动将在未来数月持续 影响投资者。 最高法院废除特朗普关税权限后，美股周五短暂上涨，但投资者应准备迎接新一轮经济不确定性。 周五美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税违法，市场预期企业未来利润率压力减轻，风险偏好情绪推动美股盘中拉涨，全日显著震荡后三大股指均收 涨。标普500指数上涨0.7%，本周累涨1.07%，创1月9日以来最佳单周表现。 美股面临短期财政刺激 对美股来说，那1750亿美元的潜在退税是个短期的"财政刺激"。这笔钱会直接流入企业利润，进口量大的零售和消费公司尤其如此。 周五St ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong non-farm payroll data that typically suppresses gold prices, gold has shown resilience, rising over 1% and maintaining levels above $5,080, indicating a structural shift in the gold market logic [1][2][6]. Economic Data Impact - The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, which traditionally would suggest prolonged high interest rates, negatively impacting gold [2][3]. - Market expectations for a cumulative rate cut of about 50 basis points this year remain intact, despite the non-farm data suggesting otherwise [3]. Market Dynamics - The limited rise in the U.S. dollar index post-data release indicates a lack of sustained momentum for the "long-term high rates" narrative [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases are contributing to a long-term support for gold [3]. Upcoming Data Focus - The market's attention is shifting to the upcoming U.S. January CPI data, which will directly influence the probability of a rate cut in June [3]. - A further slowdown in inflation could provide more upward space for gold, while higher inflation may cause short-term volatility, but deep corrections are deemed unlikely under current conditions [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear upward channel, with a structure of "higher lows and higher highs" since the low on the 7th [5]. - Key resistance levels are at $5,088 and $5,119, while support levels are at $5,058 and $5,025 [5]. - As long as gold remains within the channel and maintains the upward momentum, the bullish outlook is intact, indicating a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal [6]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment suggests that the focus is not on whether gold can rise further, but rather on the effectiveness of bearish pressures [6]. - The upcoming CPI data will be a critical test for gold; if it can hold its channel structure, the upward trend may continue [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada highlights that recent actions by the U.S. in trade, foreign policy, and central bank independence are increasing global uncertainty, making the world "more turbulent" [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time in January, citing rising uncertainty as the core reason for the inability to determine future policy direction [1] - The central bank emphasized the difficulty in predicting the timing and direction of the next policy interest rate adjustment due to an unpredictable environment with little historical precedent [1] Group 2: Sources of Uncertainty - The most significant source of uncertainty is identified as the actions of the U.S., particularly the international and trade policies of the Trump administration [1] - The meeting minutes included discussions on President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, indicating concerns over the independence of the Fed [1] - Geopolitical dynamics, including events in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland, are noted as further exacerbating global turmoil [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - The Bank of Canada pointed out that U.S. trade policies are increasingly serving geopolitical goals rather than economic objectives, leading to a rise in unpredictability [1] - Recent disputes between the U.S. and Canada regarding the Gordie Howe International Bridge ownership and aircraft certification have illustrated the impact of U.S. policy uncertainty on bilateral relations [1]

Group 1 - The core finding of the survey indicates that German SMEs are avoiding the US market due to the impact of US tariffs and uncertainty regarding US government policies [1] - 12% of respondents reported direct impacts from US tariffs, while 44% experienced indirect effects, with the metal, automotive, and mechanical engineering sectors being the most affected [1] - Nearly 25% of respondents in the affected sectors indicated direct impacts from US tariffs, and 61% reported indirect impacts through suppliers [1] Group 2 - Approximately one-quarter of SMEs expressed concerns about planning uncertainties due to fluctuating US policies, with 33% of companies earning €50 million or more particularly affected [1] - The willingness of German SMEs to exit the US market and refocus on domestic markets has increased, with only 9% planning to expand in the US, a decrease of 3% from the spring 2024 survey [1] - 18% of companies expect the role of the US market to diminish, an increase of 9% compared to the spring 2024 survey, while over half of the German companies plan to shift their business focus back to the domestic market [1]

Core Viewpoint - German SMEs are increasingly avoiding the U.S. market due to the impact of U.S. tariffs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policies [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - 12% of surveyed German SMEs reported direct impacts from U.S. tariffs, while 44% experienced indirect effects [1] - The metal, automotive, and mechanical engineering sectors are the most affected, with nearly 25% of respondents indicating direct impacts and 61% citing indirect impacts through suppliers [1] Group 2: Uncertainty of U.S. Government Policies - Nearly one-quarter of SMEs expressed concerns about planning uncertainties due to fluctuating U.S. policies [1] - This issue is particularly pronounced among companies with annual revenues of €50 million or more, where 33% reported being affected [1] Group 3: Shift in Business Focus - There is a growing willingness among German SMEs to leave the U.S. market and refocus on domestic markets [1] - Only 9% of companies plan to expand their business in the U.S., a decrease of 3% from the spring 2024 survey; 18% expect the U.S. market's role to diminish, an increase of 9% from the previous survey [1] - Over half of German companies intend to shift their business focus back to the domestic market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with buying interest returning and pushing gold prices above $5,000 per ounce, recovering some losses from a historic drop last month [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw a maximum increase of 1.7% on Monday, recovering about half of the losses incurred since reaching a historical high on January 29 [6][8]. - Silver prices also increased, with a notable rise of 6% on Monday, bringing the price back above $82 per ounce [8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, currency devaluation trading, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have driven precious metal prices to new historical highs [3][8]. - Speculative buying has further fueled the price surge, although this was followed by a significant drop in both gold and silver prices at the end of last month [3][8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major banks and asset management firms, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, remain optimistic about gold's rebound, citing long-term demand drivers such as the global reduction of dollar assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [3][8]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the concentration risk in U.S. Treasury holdings, leading Chinese regulators to advise financial institutions to limit their positions [3][8]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Traders are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the January employment report expected to show signs of labor market stabilization and inflation data to be released later in the week [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America warn that tariff threats and potential aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are undermining the global reserve status of the dollar, leading investors to flock to gold and other safe-haven assets [1][7]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance - In 2025, the dollar experienced its largest annual decline in eight years, with a drop of approximately 9% [2][8]. - Despite a recent rebound, the dollar index is down about 1% year-to-date, continuing the trend from 2025 [2][8]. - The dollar has not recovered from a more than 5% drop following President Trump's announcement of tariffs in April 2025 [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Policy Uncertainty - Recent policy uncertainties are expected to persist long enough to hinder the dollar's recovery, as investors had initially anticipated more support for the economic cycle [2][8]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency is increasingly questioned, with suggestions that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties may lead to a reallocation of assets away from the dollar [2][10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The market is assessing the potential impact of Kevin Walsh, Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, who is seen as a monetary hawk but may lead to expectations of aggressive rate cuts [3][9]. - Trump indicated that if Walsh showed any interest in raising rates, he would not be nominated, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Gold and Other Assets - Gold appreciated over 60% in 2025, marking one of the strongest rebounds in history, and remains up over 70% in the past year [4][10]. - Other metals, including silver, platinum, copper, and steel, have also seen price increases alongside gold as demand for hard assets rises [5][11]. Group 5: Currency Trends - Major currencies such as the euro, pound, and Swiss franc have rebounded against the dollar, alongside emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso [6][11]. - Bank of America suggests that it may be premature to label recent currency fluctuations as signs of dollar depreciation, as fundamental factors driving dollar weakness have yet to fully manifest [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities suggests that the depreciation of the yen may continue unless the Japanese government intervenes in the foreign exchange market, with a forecast of the yen reaching 160 against the dollar by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The current trading level of USD/JPY is around 156.55 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the U.S. economy following the conclusion of the Japanese elections [1] - Increased uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies or concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy could lead to increased selling pressure on the dollar [1]