高盛集团近日发布了对2026年的年度投资展望，梳理了未来一年值得关注的十大主题。该行经济学家预测，即使在关税壁垒加剧的环境下，中国仍将凭借技 术进步和持续的出口优势实现超预期增长。 在人工智能领域，报告指出AI投资主题正经历显著转型，投资者将目光投向数据中心内部，寻找那些无论使用何种芯片都能支持全球算力建设的公司。在 医药方面，GLP-1减肥药市场出现分化，投资焦点将转向寻求明年批准的新减重产品，并观察到生物制药的重心正从肥胖症药物过渡到"心脏病学复兴"。 高盛团队还指出，随着技术进步，制造能够模拟日常活动的硬件生产能力在提高，并评估了人形机器人发展对特斯拉等优势工业科技企业利润增长的潜在推 动力。报告亦提及，中国在自动驾驶汽车领域处于领先地位，预计到2035年中国无人驾驶出租车市场规模将达470亿美元。 报告同时提示，政策走向始终是一大市场主题，在步入2026年之际，政策对市场的影响可能较往常更为显著，美联储政策走向、最高法院对特朗普政府关税 政策的裁决等议题将主导市场情绪。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 根据高盛行业研究团队发布的报告 ...

Group 1 - The core prediction regarding "AI bubble" highlights a divide between warnings of potential overvaluation due to high interest rates and the assertion that AI investments have driven all GDP growth in the U.S., indicating a significant transformation in productivity and sales [3][4] - The predictions about the "Federal Reserve dilemma" and "U.S. stock market direction" reveal dramatic tensions, with forecasts ranging from a 14% increase to a 20% potential decline, reflecting the uncertainty between policy and corporate earnings resilience [3][4] - Predictions about "quantum computing disrupting cryptocurrencies" and "brain-computer interfaces coming to the forefront" suggest a nearing technological singularity that could revolutionize existing business models and highlight vulnerabilities in current technologies [4][5] Group 2 - The forecast for gold prices reaching $10,000 contrasts with warnings of a potential major economic crisis in 2026, illustrating a dual narrative of distrust in fiat currency and concerns over geopolitical conflicts driving demand for precious metals [4][5] - The overall sentiment indicates that 2026 will be a year of complex variables and significant turning points, requiring investors to navigate a landscape of uncertainty rather than binary choices [5][6] - The recommended investment strategy emphasizes "balanced allocation" between technology and physical assets, focusing on "realization capability" of companies, and maintaining "strategic patience" in a volatile market environment [6]

新华社伦敦12月30日电（记者赵小娜）英国《卫报》日前发布的一项最新民调结果显示，受通胀高企和 政策不确定性影响，近半数受访的美国人认为自身财务安全状况持续恶化，且越来越多人将这一局面归 咎于美国政府政策。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping below $4420 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 2.92%, and further falling to $4330 per ounce, expanding the daily loss to 4.93% [1][6] - On December 30, New York gold initially broke above $4360 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.38%, but later fell below $4340 per ounce, resulting in a daily decline of 0.09% [1][6] - Spot gold also showed large fluctuations, falling below $4310 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 5.03%, and then rising above $4340 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 0.21% [1][6] - New York silver similarly experienced a volatile market, dropping below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 8.25%, and rebounding above $72 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 2.20% [1][7] - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 10.31% [1][7] - Palladium futures fell below $1700 per ounce on December 29, with a significant drop of 15.98% [2][7] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Base metals futures faced widespread pressure, with copper futures dropping 4% on December 29, now priced at 96420.00 yuan [3][8] - Tin futures showed extreme volatility, initially dropping 5% (to 325220.00 yuan), then 6% (to 321750.00 yuan), and ultimately closing down 7% at 318370.00 yuan [3][8] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil futures closed at $58.08 per barrel on December 29, an increase of $1.34, or 2.36% [4][9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a delay in the release of the weekly oil status report, with notifications to be provided at least one hour in advance [4][9] - For the week ending December 19, EIA reported a decrease in natural gas inventories by 1660 billion cubic feet, slightly above the expected decrease of 1680 billion cubic feet [4][9] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The volatility in precious metals and metal futures may be linked to geopolitical factors and market sentiment [5][10] - U.S. Congressman Green criticized both parties for their roles in the growth of national debt and the depreciation of the dollar, while Trump mentioned considering legal action against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, increasing policy uncertainty and market volatility [5][10] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow opened down 0.2% on December 29, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, while silver mining stocks generally declined, with the Invesco Silver Trust down 7.3% [5][10] - On December 30, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P down 0.35% [5][10]

Core Insights - The gold market is entering 2026 with strong momentum driven by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite a thin market participation [1][4] - The primary drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are policy uncertainties, high government spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [1][9] - Central banks remain a significant structural support for gold, with many maintaining over 50% of their reserves in gold, indicating substantial reallocation potential [4][6] Demand Dynamics - Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a long-term diversification asset rather than a short-term hedge, with countries like Turkey, Russia, and India actively accumulating gold [6] - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing even during price increases [6] Price Projections - Major banks project gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce for 2026, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain loose [9] - The outlook for gold prices is not contingent on crises but rather on maintaining the current state of high debt, policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar [9]

在地缘政治波动、全球货币宽松和市场避险需求高企等因素的影响下，2025年大宗商品走势分化，行情呈现"冰火两重天"。贵金属单边走强，而能源价格则 持续低迷。以下是IG分析师分享的2026年大宗商品的展望报告。黄金：2025年创纪录上涨后，涨势能否延续？ 结构性需求 黄金带着历史性涨势进入2026年——但有趣的是，这一交易似乎仍未过度拥挤。即便在2024年和2025年连续突破纪录，黄金常被描述为"超买"，却几乎从未 被贴上"过度持有"的标签。而这一差异至关重要。机构持仓仍有扩张空间，意味着此轮涨势并非由过度投机驱动，而是依托尚未达峰的结构性需求。 2024-2025年黄金涨势的很大一部分源于政策——更准确地说，是政策不确定性。美国在进入2026年之际，政府支出高企、局部通胀持续，实际收益率不断 走低。再叠加美元走弱，过去两年支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍完好无损。 2025年的市场分化清晰印证了黄金对宏观经济的敏感性。6月至12月，随着实际收益率走低，黄金飙升至历史新高。这种反向关系仍是2026年黄金走势的最 大驱动因素之一。 图1：黄金vs实际收益率 各国央行仍是黄金结构性行情背后最强大的推动力之一。多个经济体的黄金 ...

UNforex 12月16日讯 周二欧洲交易时段，国际金价出现明显回调。在俄乌局势释放阶段性缓和信号的 背景下，市场风险偏好短暂修复，避险溢价随之回落；与此同时，前期连续反弹后积累的多头获利盘集 中释放，进一步放大了回落幅度，推动XAU/USD跌破4300美元整数关口。整体来看，当前下行更多体 现为情绪与仓位再平衡，而非对中期宏观逻辑的系统性否定。 从驱动因素看，本轮金价回落的核心在于避险溢价的阶段性压缩。美国官员周一透露，与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基就结束俄乌冲突的相关安排已取得一定进展，尽管在领土归属及安全保障等关键议题上仍存分 歧，但市场已率先对"冲突降级"的可能性进行定价。在这一背景下，部分此前配置于黄金的避险资金选 择阶段性退出。叠加欧洲时段短线多头集中平仓，价格在4300美元附近出现技术性失守，波动幅度被进 一步放大。 尽管短线承压，但从政策维度观察，黄金所处的中期环境并未发生根本改变。美联储已于上周完成年内 第三次、也是阶段性最后一次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%—3.75%。纽约联储主席威 廉姆斯指出，随着就业风险上升、通胀压力回落，当前政策立场已为未来不确定性预留空间。不过，从 最新 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] - Billionaires are optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024, and 34% favoring the Greater China market, significantly higher than 11% last year [5] - Over a five-year outlook, the percentage of respondents optimistic about the Greater China market rose from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [6] Group 2 - There has been a significant decline in optimism regarding the North American market, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024, primarily due to concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs [9] - 66% of respondents identified tariffs as the most likely negative factor affecting the market environment in the next 12 months, followed by geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [9] - Billionaires plan to increase investments in private equity, hedge funds, developed market equities, and emerging market equities, with 49% intending to increase exposure to private equity in the next 12 months, followed by hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [11]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 在即将过去的2025年，得益于AI投资热潮以及宽松货币政策等因素，全球股市整体表现强 劲，呈现出罕见的同步上涨态势，包括美股为在内的多国股指创下历史新高。 2026年最好的投资机会在哪里？在这一点上，掌控着庞大资金且比普通人拥有更敏锐投资嗅 觉的亿万富豪们的看法，或许可以成为风向标。 那么，亿万富豪们眼下将目光瞄向了何处？瑞银的一份最新报告给出了答案。 瑞银针对其亿万富豪客户的最新年度调查涵盖了多个主题，包括他们计划在未来12个月和五 年内将资金投向何处。 亿万富豪们投资情绪的上述转向，源于对多重风险因素的担忧，其中关税问题首当其冲。 66%的受访者认为，关税是"未来12个月最可能对市场环境造成负面影响"的因素之一；紧随 其后的是潜在重大地缘政治冲突（63%）、政策不确定性（59%）以及更高的通胀 （44%）。 瑞银的一位欧洲客户直言："尽管北美市场仍具深度与创新力，但它已不再是我们眼中的头号 投资目的地。对我们而言，投资过度集中于单一地区会催生风险，分散布局才能捕捉更优机 遇。" 放眼全球，亿万富豪们对两个地区投资前 ...

Core Insights - The global stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, driven by the AI investment boom and loose monetary policies, with many indices, including the US stock market, reaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Billionaires are increasingly optimistic about investment opportunities in China and Western Europe, with 40% of respondents favoring Western Europe for the next 12 months, up from 18% in 2024 [1] - Similarly, 34% of billionaires see potential in the Greater China market for the next 12 months, a significant increase from 11% in the previous year [1] - Over a five-year horizon, the outlook for Greater China has also improved, with the percentage of respondents optimistic rising from 31% in 2024 to 48% in 2025 [1] Group 2: North America Market Sentiment - In contrast, optimism towards the North American market has sharply declined, with only 63% of billionaires favoring it in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [4] - Concerns over multiple risk factors, particularly tariffs, are driving this shift, with 66% of respondents identifying tariffs as a major potential negative impact on the market environment [4] - Other significant concerns include geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [4] Group 3: Investment Areas - Billionaires plan to increase their exposure to private equity, with 49% indicating plans to invest more in this area over the next 12 months [5] - Other areas of interest include hedge funds (43%), developed market equities (43%), and emerging market equities (42%) [5] - The survey indicates a strong preference for public and private equity investments among billionaires, reflecting a strategic shift in their investment focus [6]