Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams anticipates an economic rebound by 2026, with a reduction in policy uncertainty and other headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - Williams projects that the economy will recover by 2026, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for economic growth [1] - The expectation is that current challenges, including policy uncertainty, will diminish over time, contributing to a more stable economic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has become a focal point of concern, significantly impacting investor confidence and market trends [1][6]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Recent statements from the U.S. President indicate a willingness to allow Powell to complete his term, despite dissatisfaction with his performance [1][3]. - There are ongoing criticisms from some political figures, including a fabricated resignation letter incident, highlighting the contentious political environment surrounding Powell's position [1][3]. Group 2: Government Stance - The Treasury Secretary has softened criticisms of Powell, acknowledging his performance as acceptable and supporting him to serve until the end of his term [4]. - The Treasury Department emphasizes the need for continued scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's actions to ensure alignment with public interests [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Powell's future underscores potential impacts on financial markets, as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions influence global capital flows and risk appetite [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental analysis and adapt trading strategies in response to policy changes, maintaining a rational approach in the current environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have slightly retreated but remain stable near a one-month high, influenced by the recovery of the US dollar and upcoming economic events [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of the week, trading volume for gold investments has significantly increased, with prices breaking out of a narrow trading range that persisted since early July [1] - The current gold price movement is primarily driven by the US dollar, which is expected to face limited rebound potential due to approaching tariff deadlines and policy uncertainties related to the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The deadline for additional tariffs in the US on August 1 is creating a market environment that supports gold prices, as any potential recovery in the dollar is likely to be constrained [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that policy uncertainty is causing companies to delay their investment plans [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Canada conducted a survey indicating that a significant number of businesses are holding back on capital expenditures due to concerns over future policy directions [1] - The survey results show that 40% of firms reported postponing investment decisions, reflecting a notable increase in caution among businesses [1] - Companies are particularly worried about potential changes in monetary policy and regulatory frameworks, which are contributing to a more conservative approach to investment [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights that better-than-expected U.S. economic data has boosted oil demand, leading to a rise in oil prices, with retail sales increasing by 0.6% month-on-month and a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels [1][2][3] Economic Data - U.S. retail and food service sales for June reached $720.1 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [1][2] - The previous month's data showed a decline of 0.9% in May [1] Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels, significantly exceeding the forecasted drop of 552,000 barrels [1][3] - The attack on oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan region resulted in a daily production drop of 150,000 barrels, contributing to a tightening supply situation [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical landscape, including U.S. trade policy uncertainties and Middle Eastern tensions, is expected to introduce volatility in the short term [2][3] - Recent events, such as Israeli attacks in Syria and drone strikes on Kurdish oil facilities, have heightened market awareness of geopolitical risks [2][3] Long-term Trends - Fossil fuels continue to account for 80% of the global energy structure, with industrialization and population growth in developing economies supporting long-term demand [4] - The current stability in oil prices is attributed to a dynamic balance of various soft power factors, including policy adjustments and geopolitical risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are significantly influenced by market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence and potential changes in monetary policy due to political pressures [1][2][3]. Market Influences - Gold prices experienced dramatic volatility, initially dropping to $3,319.58 per ounce before surging to a three-week high of $3,377.17 due to market reactions to news about President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Powell [1][2]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of the dismissal plan indicates heightened concerns over the Fed's independence, which is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the U.S. financial system [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including a decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI), has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [2]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators such as initial jobless claims and retail sales, with expectations that most data will be unfavorable for gold prices, suggesting potential for price corrections [2][3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a defined range of $3,375 to $3,320, indicating a lack of strong directional movement. A breakout above or below this range could lead to further price movements towards $3,400 or $3,285, respectively [3][5]. - The technical indicators suggest a preference for long positions in the current market environment, with key support levels identified at $3,320 and resistance at $3,375 [5][6]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions near $3,365 to $3,370 with a target of $3,350 to $3,340, and long positions near $3,325 to $3,330 with a target of $3,345 to $3,355 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The S&P report indicates that banks in the Asia-Pacific region are well-positioned to handle policy uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience of Asia-Pacific banks amidst changing regulatory environments [1] - It emphasizes that these banks have strong capital buffers and risk management practices [1] - The overall outlook for the banking sector in the region remains positive despite potential challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

金十数据7月10日讯，最新公布的美联储6月会议纪要显示，与会者判断劳动市场情况仍然稳固，处于或 接近最大就业的估计水平。几位与会者指出，近期劳动力市场的稳定反映了招聘和裁员的放缓，几位与 会者还提到，他们的联系人和商业调查受访者表示，由于不确定性上升，暂停了招聘决定。几位与会者 指出，移民政策正在减少劳动力供应。在对劳动力市场的展望中，多数与会者认为，关税上调或政策不 确定性加剧将打压劳动力需求，许多与会者预计情况将逐渐走软。一些与会者指出，一些指标已经显示 出疲软的迹象，他们将密切关注就业市场进一步走弱的迹象。一些与会者指出，工资增长继续放缓，预 计不会造成通胀压力。 美联储会议纪要：多数与会者认为关税上调或政策不确定性加剧将打压劳动需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is currently experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent attack by Houthi forces on a commercial ship, which has triggered a risk premium. This, combined with uncertainties surrounding Iran's nuclear negotiations and impending trade tariffs, creates a complex environment for oil prices, which are fluctuating within a range of $65 to $75 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The Houthi forces attacked the "Magic Ocean" vessel, which was reportedly heading to Israel, using drones and missiles, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [2]. - The potential for disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact oil prices, especially if such disruptions last more than 72 hours [2][3]. - The ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could either stabilize or further destabilize the oil market, depending on their outcome [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current oil prices reflect a balance of geopolitical risks and uncertainties related to trade tariffs, with a notable demand uncertainty stemming from these factors [1][3]. - The market is characterized by a "consolidation pattern" where supply pressures from OPEC's increased production are being partially offset by resilient demand during the summer driving season [3]. - The oil price is influenced by a dynamic adjustment of market expectations regarding tariff impacts on demand and geopolitical conflicts affecting supply [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The Houthi attack has injected a risk premium into the oil market through multiple channels, including shipping disruptions and the potential for increased costs due to heightened shipping risks [3]. - The financial leverage from hedge funds may amplify price movements as they adjust their positions in response to geopolitical events [3]. - The interplay between a weakening dollar and trade tariffs creates a complex scenario for oil pricing, where the financial attributes of oil may be enhanced despite potential demand suppression [4].