2025 年 7 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,072 | -0.87 | 41.21 | | 恒生国企 | 8,678 | -0.96 | 50.44 | | 恒生科技 | 5,303 | -0.72 | 40.87 | | 上证综指 | 3,444 | 0.59 | 15.78 | | 深证综指 | 2,075 | 1.09 | 12.90 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,153 | 1.35 | 13.83 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,095 | 0.63 | 16.99 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,205 | 0.52 | 30.09 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,370 | 0.47 | 35.70 | | 德国 DAX | 23,910 | -0.51 | 42.73 | | ...

电驱系统实现集成后，省掉了各部件之间的线束连接，也减少了电磁干扰，三相直连，省心省力。电驱系统体积的缩小，使得车辆内部 的空间布局更灵活，有利于车企平台化设计，可扩展模块化设计，大大缩短产品开发周期，降本增效。另外，车辆重心下降，操控性能 更好，也能带来较高扭矩容量和电驱系统总成的效率的提升。 一体化电驱动总成是将电动汽车驱动系统中的电机、变速器（减速器）、控制器等主要部件集成在一起，形成一个紧凑、高效的动力输 出单元。纯电动汽车的动力总成主要由电机、电机控制器及减速器构成，由于电动汽车用电机替代发动机作为动力输出，其构造相对简 单。随着动力总成向集成化发展，第三方集成商摆脱原有将电机、减速器和电机控制器单独设计再组装的思路，直接进行一体化设计。 随着电力电子技术、自动控制技术、计算机控制技术的发展，感应电机、永磁同步电机及开关磁阻电机拥有更优越的性能，逐渐替代直 流电机系统。 中国一体化电驱动总成发展现状及未来趋势 据 QYR esearch 最新调研， 2024 年中国一体化电驱动总成市场销售收入达到了 672.32 亿元，预计 2031 年达到 1630.74 亿元， 2025-2031 期间年复合增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth potential of the electric vehicle (EV) motor controller market in China, driven by increasing EV penetration, supportive policies, and technological advancements, particularly in high-voltage platforms and silicon carbide (SiC) power devices [2][6]. Market Overview - The sales revenue of China's EV motor controller market is projected to reach 39.763 billion yuan in 2024 and 66.053 billion yuan by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.73% from 2025 to 2031 [2]. - High-voltage motor controllers are becoming the dominant technology, expected to account for 96.59% of revenue in 2024 and rise to 98.93% by 2031 [3]. Product and Application Segmentation - The market shows a clear differentiation between high-voltage and low-voltage motor controllers, with high-voltage controllers leading the market [3]. - Pure electric vehicles (BEVs) are the primary demand drivers, accounting for 63.46% of revenue in 2024, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are gradually increasing their market share [3]. Key Players - Major players in the Chinese market include BYD, Tesla, Huichuan United Power, United Automotive Electronics, Huawei, CRRC Times Electric, and NIO, with the top three companies holding approximately 57.37% of the market share in 2024 [4]. Policy Support and Market Growth - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of the EV and its components as a strategic emerging industry, implementing various policies including financial subsidies and tax reductions [6]. - The market for EVs is expected to continue its rapid growth, with penetration rates targeted at 45% by 2025 and 60% by 2030, positioning EVs as the mainstay of the automotive market post-2030 [6]. Global Opportunities - Chinese automotive component suppliers are increasingly becoming significant players in mature markets like Europe and North America, leveraging their technological and supply chain advantages [6]. - The globalization of the Chinese automotive parts industry is driven by self-innovation and the historical opportunities presented by the EV sector [6]. Industry Challenges - The industry faces risks related to supply chain stability, particularly concerning the reliance on imported electronic components, which may be affected by global trade tensions [7]. - Fluctuations in downstream demand can impact the performance of component suppliers, necessitating flexibility and rapid response capabilities [7]. - Increased competition in the market, driven by the simplification of vehicle design and reduced component counts, is putting pressure on profit margins for suppliers [7].

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]

据新浪报道，6月12日汽车博主孙少军微博转发视频显示，中国汽车流通协会、 乘用车市场信息联席分会秘书长崔东树 近日表 示，其 绝对不会买新能源汽车 。 崔东树表示："燃油车这个绿色环保性是比较强的，生命周期的碳排放是很低的，而电动车在电池制造过程中，碳排放是极高的。" 6月9日，乘联会发布数据显示，2025年5月全国乘用车市场零售193.2万辆， 同比增长13.3%，环比增长10.1% 。5月新能源促销环比 增长1.6%，达到11%； 5月新能源车国内零售渗透率提升到52.9% 。 崔东树表示，新能源车跟传统燃油车价格体系和税收体系完全不同， 燃油车是作为奢侈品去管理的 ，有巨额的税收的压力，而新能 源车作为一个不税的产品成本是极低的。 崔东树说： " 燃油车是背负了整个车市所有的社会责任， 交了巨额的税收背负着重大的骂名， 反正我是只买燃油车的， 我绝对不会买新能源车的。" 有观点认为， 崔东树的观点揭示了电动车产业链在电池制造环节的环境挑战，但忽略了全生命周期评估和技术进步的动态影响。 电动车在绿电占比高的地区已展现出显著的减排优势，且电池回收、碳捕获等技术正快速降低制造环节的碳排放。中国政策与国际 趋势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese new energy passenger vehicle industry is expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of this year, with annual sales projected to reach 15.25 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a penetration rate of 53.3% [1][2] - The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China has rapidly increased from 6.1% in 2020 to an expected 53.3% in 2023, with significant growth in the supply of quality models across various segments [3] - The report highlights that the intelligent assisted driving technology is penetrating the market for vehicles priced between 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, with the NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) adoption rate reaching 18.9% in March 2025, indicating a significant increase [4] Group 2 - Several new energy vehicle manufacturers have improved their gross margins due to the growth in sales volume, enhancing the visibility of breakeven points for these companies [2][3] - The report anticipates that the demand for new energy vehicles will grow, benefiting various segments of the intelligent assisted driving supply chain, including lidar, driving chips, and Tier 1 suppliers [2][4] - The current valuation metrics for companies in the sector indicate potential for long-term improvement, with specific companies like Li Auto and NIO showing varying price-to-sales ratios [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is expected to reach 53.3% by the end of 2025, with sales projected to hit 15.25 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [5][34][33] - The report highlights that the penetration rate of NEVs has rapidly increased from 6.1% in 2020 to an estimated 44.6% in 2024, with significant growth expected to continue in 2025 [5][34][33] - The report emphasizes the strong growth momentum in the NEV sector, with first-quarter sales in 2025 reaching 2.9 million units, a 46% year-on-year increase, and April sales showing a 42% increase compared to the previous year [8][9][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the market for smart assisted driving is expanding, with the penetration rate of Level 2++ smart driving features in vehicles priced below 100,000 yuan achieving a breakthrough in early 2025 [5][33] - The report anticipates that the supply of high-quality NEV models will continue to increase, with companies like Xiaomi, Xpeng, NIO, and Li Auto expected to perform well in the market [5][34][35] - The report discusses the impact of government policies, such as the "Two New" policy, which aims to stimulate demand for NEVs through subsidies, contributing to the overall growth of the sector [30][31][32] Group 3 - The report indicates that the competitive landscape remains intense, with various new energy vehicle manufacturers continuously launching competitive products, which raises the bar for all players in the market [34][35] - The report highlights that the cost of key components, such as lithium carbonate, has stabilized below 100,000 yuan per ton, which is expected to help reduce overall vehicle costs [35][20] - The report projects that the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles is on the rise, with their market share increasing to 65.5% in April 2025, compared to 54.2% in July 2024 [9][21][26]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 全球视野看电车之一：欧洲新能源东风起，国内 企业迎新机 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 总量端，碳排放政策下欧洲新能源短期冲高，目前新能源车以纯电为主且集中于中大车型。政 策端，碳排放政策有所延缓但考核压力仍较大，叠加企业燃油车税收优惠将被取消，欧洲新能 源 2025-2028 年预计将迎来快速发展。机遇已至，国内整车企业比亚迪、零跑等在强车型竞争 力以及关税调整利好下，欧洲销量增长可期；量增下，零部件企业如敏实集团、文灿股份欧洲 新能源收入也将迎来较好增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 高伊楠 叶之楠 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490520090003 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUW101 王子豪 SAC：S0490524070004 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 41 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 全球视 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 21st week of 2025 (from May 19th to May 25th), the domestic passenger car retail sales reached 394,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%; new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%. The new energy penetration rate was 55.9%, up 4.3 percentage points from the same period last year and down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, cumulative passenger car retail sales were 8.1 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; cumulative new energy passenger car retail sales were 4.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%, with a cumulative new energy penetration rate of 49.5% [1][12]. - The demand in the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. Leading brands have consolidated their leading positions through product advantages and market strategies. New brands like Xiaomi have brought new variables, and traditional automakers such as Chang'an and Chery have achieved remarkable new energy sales [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales**: In the 21st week of 2025, domestic passenger car retail sales were 394,000 units (up 10.6% year - on - year), and new energy passenger car retail sales were 220,000 units (up 19.7% year - on - year). The new energy penetration rate was 55.9% [1][12]. - **By Power Type**: In passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles sold 157,000, 17,000, and 220,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 0.8%, 17.7%, and 19.7%, accounting for 39.8%, 4.4%, and 55.9% of passenger cars. In new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles sold 133,000, 59,000, and 28,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 17.1%, 15.6%, and 46.4%, accounting for 60.5%, 27.0%, and 12.5% [17]. - **By Production Attribute**: In passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 257,000 and 137,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 20.6% and - 4.4%, accounting for 65.3% and 34.8%. In new energy passenger cars, domestic and joint - venture brands sold 197,000 and 23,000 units respectively, with year - on - year changes of 24.0% and - 8.1%, accounting for 89.6% and 10.4% [17]. 3.2 Key New Energy Automakers' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - **Weekly Sales**: 59,000 units, with BYD brand selling 53,000 units, Denza and Fangchengbao about 3,000 units each, and Yangwang 37 units [23]. - **Business Strategy**: Stopped producing fuel vehicles in March 2022. Since March this year, it released the super e - platform and launched new models. On May 23rd, it announced price cuts of up to 53,000 yuan for 22 models. The 2025 sales target is 5.5 million units. The sales of pure - electric and plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models are evenly split [23]. 3.2.2 Geely Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 39,000 units, with 25,000 new energy vehicles (4,000 units from Zeekr). The electrification rate is about 64% [26]. - **Business Strategy**: In 2024, it released the "Taizhou Declaration". In 2025, it announced the acquisition of Zeekr. The 2025 sales target is 2.71 million units, with 2 million for Geely, 320,000 for Zeekr, and 390,000 for Lynk & Co. The new energy vehicle sales target is 1.5 million units [26]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - **Weekly Sales**: 14,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 87% [34]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Wuling Hongguang launched an extended - range model, and Baojun launched the "Baojun Xiangjing" with plug - in hybrid and pure - electric options, but pure - electric models dominate sales [34]. 3.2.4 Chang'an Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 12,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 58%. Its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan each sold about 4,000 units, and Avatr sold over 2,000 units [39]. 3.2.5 Chery Auto - **Weekly Sales**: 20,000 units, with 7,000 new energy vehicles. The electrification rate is about 37%. Its new energy brands iCAR, Chery New Energy, and Zhijie each sold over 1,000 units [47]. 3.2.6 Tesla - **Weekly Sales**: 11,000 units in China, with Model 3 and Model Y selling over 3,000 and over 7,000 units respectively. Sales have strong seasonal fluctuations, with a significant week - on - week increase but little year - on - year growth [53]. - **Business Strategy**: This year, Tesla launched multiple promotions, including a "record - breaking discount package" for Model 3 after the Spring Festival and new offers in April [53]. 3.2.7 New - Force Automakers - **Sales**: Li Auto sold about 10,000 units, Wenjie 9,000 units, Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and NIO 7,000 units each, XPeng 6,000 units, and Aion 5,000 units. Most of Li Auto's sales are from the L series. Wenjie's sales have increased significantly, with the M8 launched and delivered recently [57].

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for electric vehicle batteries in China aims to enhance safety by implementing stricter requirements, particularly regarding fire and explosion prevention, while acknowledging that no technology can completely eliminate the risk of battery fires [1][2][11]. Group 1: New National Standards - The new standard, GB38031-2025, modifies previous requirements by mandating that batteries must not catch fire or explode, and that smoke must not harm passengers [1][2]. - New testing methods have been introduced, including internal heating tests to simulate harsher conditions, in addition to existing external heating and puncture tests [2][8]. - The new standards also include bottom impact tests and safety tests after fast charging cycles, which battery manufacturers must meet [8][10]. Group 2: Battery Safety and Technology - Achieving safety at the pack level (NTP) is not sufficient; extreme conditions cannot be fully covered by current testing methods, indicating that driver behavior remains crucial for safety [3][4]. - The intrinsic safety of individual battery cells is significant for the overall safety of the battery pack, with safer cell designs contributing to compliance with national safety standards [5][11]. - Material choices, such as using polyimide (PI) for separators instead of polypropylene (PP) or polyethylene (PE), could enhance safety, although cost and commercial viability are challenges [7][12]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The new standards may lead to a reshuffling among battery material suppliers, but many manufacturers already adhere to high standards, minimizing upstream impacts [12]. - The enforcement of the new standards may require stronger penalties to deter potential shortcuts in manufacturing processes, as merely raising standards may not eliminate all risks [13].