有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，纽约联邦储备银行 | | | 数据显示，其一般商业状况指数大幅下降约 23 点至-3.9，意味着制造业处于收缩状态， | | | 不过对未来六个月的整体前景却明显改善，前景指数上升 16.6 点，升至今年年初以来的 最高水平，反映出对订单和出货的乐观情绪增强。国内来看，昨日公布的 11 月经济数据 | | 铜 | 显示，出口保持韧性，但内需明显偏弱，消费环比快速下跌，固定资产和房地产投资承 | | | 压，凸显政策发力必要性。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 25 吨至 165875 吨；COMEX 铜 | | | 仓单增加 1995 吨至 410792 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 9663 吨至 42226 吨；BC 铜增加 301 吨 | | | 至 5965 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情 | | | 绪，短线谨慎为上。 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 252 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with attention paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and the impact of coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may remain volatile at a high level. However, considering the weak demand and significant decline in production, the spot price is still under pressure. The newly added delivery brands are beneficial for increasing the deliverable volume and warehouse receipts [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum expected to oscillate in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year, suggesting a bullish view on tin prices [6]. Zinc - In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited. The export of refined zinc drives the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc prices may be stronger than that of London zinc prices, with the main contract focusing on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless - steel market is expected to adjust through oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and changes in raw material prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market may remain strongly volatile under the drive of capital sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - For industrial silicon, the spot price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 4.15% [2]. - For aluminum alloy, on December 12th, the price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21600 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.47% [3]. - For aluminum, on December 12th, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 120 yuan/ton to 21890 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.55%. The average price of alumina in various regions decreased to varying degrees [4]. - For tin, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 3300 yuan/ton to 320000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04% [6]. - For zinc, on December 12th, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 40 yuan/ton to 23110 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.17% [8]. - For copper, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 965 yuan/ton to 92665 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.05% [10]. - For nickel, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 118850 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.25% [13]. - For stainless steel, on December 12th, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton [15]. - For lithium carbonate, on December 12th, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton to 93500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.86% [18]. Monthly Spread - For industrial silicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed significantly on December 11th [1]. - For polysilicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as the main contract, the current month - the first continuous contract, etc. changed on December 11th [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [3]. - For aluminum, the monthly spreads of contracts such as AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [4]. - For tin, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [6]. - For zinc, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [8]. - For copper, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [10]. - For nickel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [13]. - For stainless steel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [18]. Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, in November, the national industrial silicon output was 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.05 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 11.17%. The开工 rate also decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, in November, the polysilicon output was 11.46 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 14.48%. The import and export volumes also changed [2]. - For aluminum alloy, in November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.7 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 5.74%. The开工 rate increased to varying degrees [3]. - For aluminum, in November, the alumina output was 743.94 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 4.44%. The output and开工 rate of electrolytic aluminum also changed [4]. - For tin, in October, the tin ore import was 11632 tons, an increase of 2918 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 33.49%. The output and import/export volumes of refined tin also changed [6]. - For zinc, in November, the refined zinc output was 59.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.20 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 3.56%. The import and export volumes also changed [8]. - For copper, in November, the electrolytic copper output was 110.31 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 1.05%. The import volume decreased [10]. - For nickel, in November, the refined nickel output was 33345 tons, a decrease of 3453 tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 9.38%. The import volume decreased significantly [13]. - For stainless steel, in November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a decrease of 1.30 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 0.72%. The import and export volumes and inventory also changed [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the lithium carbonate output was 92350 tons, an increase of 3090 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 3.35%. The demand and inventory also changed [18]. Inventory Changes - For industrial silicon, the weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 56.10 million tons, with a rise of 0.54% [1]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.20 million tons to 29.30 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.00 million GW to 23.30 million GW [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.10 million tons to 5.47 million tons, with a decline of 1.08% [3]. - For aluminum, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 1.20 million tons to 58.40 million tons, with a decline of 2.01% [4]. - For tin, the SHEF weekly inventory increased by 506 tons to 6865 tons, with a rise of 7.96%, and the social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, with a rise of 2.39% [6]. - For zinc, the seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.21 million tons to 12.82 million tons, with a decline of 8.62% [8]. - For copper, the domestic social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 16.30 million tons, with a rise of 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.90 million tons to 8.89 million tons, with a decline of 9.22% [10]. - For nickel, the SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 40782 tons, with a rise of 4.23%, and the social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26848 tons, with a rise of 2.71% [13]. - For stainless steel, the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.34 million tons to 49.54 million tons, with a rise of 0.69% [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 19674 tons to 64560 tons, with a decline of 23.36% [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and decline. The arbitrage window remains closed. In December, the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. Although the output decline is adjusted downward, demand is also expected to fall. In the short term, prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range shifting to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 8,000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Although the futures price has risen, there is still no official announcement about the storage platform. After the storage platform is established, whether subsequent capacity acquisition and output regulation can be implemented will affect whether the industrial supply - demand can return to balance. Currently, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. Polysilicon futures may still be in a high - level oscillation. Considering the weak demand, if there is no substantial production cut, the spot price has little upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Tin - Macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply within the year is expected to be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is more obviously suppressed. The tin price is expected to remain strong within the year. It is advisable to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [4]. Copper - The Fed has cut interest rates, and there is still a risk of structural imbalance in global inventories. Terminal demand is suppressed, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, the imbalance in supply and inventory drives the rapid increase in copper prices, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [5]. Zinc - The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and the export space has opened up, but spot transactions are average, and zinc prices are oscillating. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has improved. The short - term price has limited downward space. Refined zinc exports drive the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, the repair of the Shanghai - London ratio may drive zinc prices higher. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventories [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate. The key to the market's rebound lies in the actual production cut scale and the inflection point of inventory. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, prices are expected to remain strong, but high prices will suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [10]. Nickel - The supply pressure is still strong, and the upward space is limited. Macro - sentiment has improved slightly. The spot transaction of refined nickel is okay. The price of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased slightly. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined slightly. Overall, the price driver is weak after the valuation repair. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly due to the game between strong cost support and weak demand. The cost is strongly supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials and the increase in the price of auxiliary materials. The demand is weak because high aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. The price is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating. Macro - factors are temporarily stable. The supply pressure has slightly eased, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, the market has a certain repair expectation, but the driving force is limited [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and demand. The output has increased slightly, and downstream demand is optimistic. However, there are issues such as the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely [21]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon remained unchanged on December 10 compared with December 9. The basis of some varieties has changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 120% increase [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the production in some regions such as Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82%, and social inventory increased by 1.45% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 9.21% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased by 0.55%. The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 录月 - 连一 contract with a - 102.17% change [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers have also changed [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.22%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.87% [4]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 2.15%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35% increase [4]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.96%, and LME inventory increased by 19.84% [4]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.56%, and the premium of some varieties has changed [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss decreased by 132.28 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.16 [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 10 - yuan increase [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. The import volume of copper concentrate decreased by 0.26%, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic mainstream ports increased by 3.75% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% [5]. Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.52%, and the import loss decreased by 61.84 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 50 - yuan increase [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. The import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 5.75%, and LME inventory increased by 2.84% [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.50%, and the price of alumina in some regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratio**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 76.1 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.48% [10]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.00%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 3.06% [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of some electrowinning nickel production methods has changed, such as the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel increasing by 0.19% [11]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 120 - yuan increase [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties has changed [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 20 - yuan decrease [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.70% [18]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11%, and the price of Wenzhou 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 0.55% [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 70 - yuan decrease [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.09% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.05%, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.12% [21]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 140 - yuan increase [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and the demand increased by 5.11% [21]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 23.36%, and the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 21.13% [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the market remained cautious. Although a December rate cut has reached a consensus, the future rate - cut path and how the Fed replenishes market liquidity are the focus. With the LME inventory problem hard to solve, the market sentiment may keep copper prices high and even make them continue to strengthen, so a prudent and optimistic outlook is held [1]. - Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and ore supply increased. Alumina supply remained high, and inventory pressure continued to build. Affected by macro - sentiment and copper prices, aluminum followed the upward trend and hit a new high. The end - of - year demand did not decline significantly, and the seasonal pressure on aluminum ingot shipments in Xinjiang helped extend the destocking cycle. Currently, the upward strength of aluminum prices is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the raw - material support strengthened marginally, but the price upside was limited. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply was tight, but the output of ternary precursors decreased in December, and the finished - product side was under pressure. In the short term, nickel may still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial - policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's rate - policy stance and China's economic - policy orientation. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 164,550 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,410 tons to 398,720 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. The market is cautious before the Fed's meeting, but LME inventory issues may support high copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,574 yuan per ton, down 0.27%, and AL2601 closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, down 0.11%. AD2601 closed at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,809 yuan per ton, and the aluminum - ingot spot discount widened. After the end of environmental inspections, ore supply increased, and alumina supply remained high. Aluminum prices followed the upward trend but may face downward pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 228 tons to 253,344 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 264 tons to 34,500 tons. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the new - energy industry chain faced some pressure. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 710 yuan per ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 45 yuan per ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons, and the total domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,310 yuan per ton, and the 1 lead - ingot premium in East China increased by 5 yuan per ton. The price of lead concentrates at some locations increased by 100 yuan per ton. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 547 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased by 10 yuan per ton. The aluminum - alloy ADC12 price in South China increased by 200 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and the total SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 8,439 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 425 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,501 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.4% to 22,840 yuan per ton. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 0.36 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 2.9% to 318,380 yuan per ton. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540 per ton. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][18] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [47].

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider buying on dips. Keep an eye on macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Nickel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable. After the valuation of nickel prices is repaired, the price drivers weaken. With the decline of the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia and the accelerating inventory accumulation in China, the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3]. Stainless Steel - Macro conditions are temporarily stable, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, there is an expectation of price repair due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, but the driving force is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800. Follow up on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron transactions [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the center of the lithium carbonate futures price moved down, with large intraday fluctuations and increased market divergence. The fundamentals remain generally stable with strong supply and demand. The market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 95,000. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [7]. Industrial Silicon - The market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction lies between the strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and the weak spot market with oversupply. Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but considering the weak demand, the probability of price decline is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and those with short positions can hold them [11]. Zinc - As TC gradually declines, smelting profits are compressed, and production is limited. The opening of the zinc ingot export space eases the domestic supply pressure, and the demand side shows structural improvement. In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited, and the Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 [13]. Copper - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory imbalances. In the short term, the price may fluctuate sharply, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the price to gradually move up. Pay attention to the structural changes in domestic and overseas inventories and the risk of cornering the market, with the main contract reference range of 90,000 - 91,000 [15]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The key to a market rebound lies in the actual production cuts of enterprises and the inflection point of inventory, with the main contract reference range of 2,550 - 2,800 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pull - back after the price rises. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the actual inventory reduction in China, with the main contract reference range of 21,700 - 22,500 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The ADC12 price has limited downside space due to cost support, but high inventory and high prices restrict upward breakthroughs. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.88% to 314,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 75% to 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss improved by 4.56% to - 16,618.50 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.87 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 22.54% to - 550 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory increased by 2.39% [1]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.29% to 120,050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19% to 111,026 yuan/ton [3]. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% to 27,530 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 20 to - 160 yuan/100 [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [3]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5%, CIF) remained unchanged at 57 US dollars/wet ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1,500 to - 80 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: In November, total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,450 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 105 to 155 [9]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [9]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [11]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 2.47% to 55,510 [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.61% to 23,130 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 5 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 5.27% to 14.03 million tons [13]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.37% to 91,282 yuan/ton [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 40 to - 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 8.41% to 15.89 million tons [15]. Alumina - **Prices and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.32% to 22,090 yuan/ton [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 to - 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: National alumina explicit inventory continued to accumulate [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,700 yuan/ton [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 to - 50 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, with the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm and China's year - end economic meeting expected to release clearer policy signals, the sentiment is slightly positive. The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing [5]. - For aluminum, with the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further [8]. - For lead, the port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. - For zinc, in the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. - For tin, although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high [13]. - For nickel, the oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [20]. - For alumina, after the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, although the sales improved in November, the high inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts. If the supply can be effectively controlled and the production cut intensity increases, or combined with positive policy signals and the release of downstream low - level restocking demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost price is relatively firm, and the policy continues to disrupt the supply side, so there is strong support at the bottom. However, the demand is relatively unstable and the delivery pressure forms an upper - level suppression. In the short term, the price may continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the domestic equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. LME copper 3M contract rose 2.02% to $11,665/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 92,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 275 tons to 162,550 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M premium fell to $23/ton. The weekly inventory of SHFE decreased by 0.9 tons to 8.9 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 3.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was stable at 170 yuan/ton, and the market supply was tight. The inventory in Guangdong increased, and the spot premium rose to 85 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 5,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The expected reduction in production due to tight mine supply and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices to reach new historical highs. In the short term, copper prices may rise further under the expectation of policy easing. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,400 - $11,800/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum rose 0.45% to $2,900/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,165 yuan/ton. The open interest of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased significantly by 42,000 to 727,124 lots. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods in two regions also decreased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market buying sentiment was weak. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading sentiment was light. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 528,300 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount [7]. - **Strategy**: With the domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing, the high premium of US spot aluminum, the continuous decrease of LME aluminum ingot inventory at a relatively low level, combined with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rise of copper prices, aluminum prices may strengthen further. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,870 - $2,930/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.33% to 17,298 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 80,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose $12.5 to $2,017.5/ton, and the total open interest was 174,500 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,175 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in SHFE was 16,078 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 105 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 10 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 243,550 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 119,225 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - 49.15 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 91.5 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME lead was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 157.21 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of lead ore is decreasing marginally, and the factory inventory is accumulating normally. The operating rates of primary and recycled lead are rising, and the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is also increasing. Although the smelter's factory inventory is rising, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has decreased to a low level, and the deliverable products in circulation are relatively scarce. In the short term, lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 1.87% to 23,311 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 208,060 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose $56 to $3,116.5/ton, and the total open interest was 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,130 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 45 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 120 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in SHFE was 60,729 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 55,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 5,075 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 163 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 61.01 dollars/ton. The ex - exchange ratio of the SHFE and LME zinc was 1.062, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,383 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the good profits of zinc mines will turn into a definite increase in supply, and the oversupply cycle of the zinc industry remains unchanged, so the upward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, with the supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots narrowing and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly after breaking through the pressure level [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 5, 2025, the closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 316,230 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decrease from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons. In terms of supply, the import of tin concentrate in China increased significantly in October, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has worsened recently, disturbing tin ore transportation, and the market's concerns have increased. Media reported that the northern region of Nigeria will suspend all mining activities for six months. If implemented, it may further widen the supply gap of domestic tin ore. Historically, Nigeria exports about 700 metal tons of tin ore to China per month, accounting for about 4 - 5% of China's monthly tin production [13]. - **Strategy**: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, the bargaining power is limited due to the low downstream inventory. Supply disruptions are the determining factor for short - term prices, so the probability of short - term tin price increase is high. It is recommended to go long at an appropriate time. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $40,000 - $44,000/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,790 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands were stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 4,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $52.02/wet ton, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The decline of ferronickel prices slowed down, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains large, but with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make a decision after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is $13,500 - $15,500/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On December 5, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 90,669 yuan, a 0.11% decrease from the previous working day and a 2.89% decrease within the week. The quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 90,200 - 91,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 100 yuan (- 0.11%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,200 - 89,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 0.11% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 92,160 yuan, a 1.64% decrease from the previous closing price and a 4.42% decrease within the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,000 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $1,135 - $1,180/ton, with the average price decreasing by 1.49% from the previous day and 4.93% within the week [19]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand mismatch in the domestic lithium carbonate market has not been reversed. The market's concerns about the sustainability of lithium mica production have been digested. The supply is less likely to have additional reduction, and the expectation of good consumption is strengthening. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate is 95,980 - 98,860 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 5, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index decreased by 1.99% to 2,607 yuan/ton, and the total open interest for unilateral trading was 673,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2,740 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $312/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Friday were 253,300 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $70.5/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $68/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the shipment will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of subsequent production reduction is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, a 0.60% increase (+ 75) on the day, and the unilateral open interest was 202,700 lots, a decrease of 4,455 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in Foshan market was 12,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices soared to record highs, with the loss of domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The weakening US labor market and the improvement of the service industry index, along with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China, are the main influencing factors. The increase in LME and Comex copper inventories, along with the decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts, indicate tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories, which may lead to a continued strong performance in the market [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with aluminum alloy weakening and aluminum and alumina showing different trends. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a significant correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has gradually been realized in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the State Grid order matching concludes, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel prices also showed a mixed trend, with LME nickel rising and Shanghai nickel falling slightly. The inventory situation is complex, with LME nickel inventory decreasing and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increasing. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices reached new historical highs. The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a decrease of 32,000 in the ADP employment number in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM service industry PMI index rose to 52.6 in November, the highest in nine months. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 2,127 tons to 393,979 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. The large - scale conversion of LME copper registered warehouse receipts to cancelled warehouse receipts is seen as a sign of impending large - scale提货, indicating tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum alloy trended weakly, with the overnight main contract AD2601 closing at 20,970 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64%. Aluminum trended strongly, with the overnight AL2601 closing at 22,010 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. Alumina trended weakly, with the overnight AO2601 closing at 2,632 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has been gradually realized in the short term. However, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.92% to 14,875 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.02% to 117,590 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 88,925 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan from the previous day. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 79,800 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 161,800 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons to 26.2 million tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 3, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 21,690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 535,900 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,833 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 253,074 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,740 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 13.76 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 309,340 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day. LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,145 tons, and SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons to 6,359 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [9][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: The report provides near - far month spread charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, showing the historical trends of near - far month spreads for these metals [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: The report provides LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of LME inventories for these metals [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The report provides SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of SHFE inventories for these metals [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: The report provides social inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories for these items [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts for copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of smelting - related indicators [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing in - depth reports [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are supported by supply - demand factors, while others are affected by cost, inventory, and market sentiment [2][3][4] - For most metals, there are specific price trends and trading suggestions based on their individual fundamentals and market conditions Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, SHFE copper increased in positions, fluctuated, and closed up. The spot copper was reported at 88,980 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 140 yuan and a shrinking premium in Guangdong to 85 yuan. It has resilience in the previous trading - intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions should be held based on the MA5 daily moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of SHFE aluminum have limited contradictions. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major areas has shown narrow fluctuations this week. It is testing the resistance near the previous high of 22,000 yuan. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and SHFE aluminum has expanded to over 800 yuan, with potential for narrowing at the end of the year [3] - Alumina has a high operating capacity, with increasing industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - Domestic smelters have a strong production - reduction expectation, and overseas smelters have a mediocre production - increase expectation in the fourth quarter. The supply constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, and the zinc price is expected to rise, possibly breaking through the annual line [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel's rebound is under pressure, and it is mainly in a low - volatility, range - bound operation. The inventory of stainless steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased in positions and rose again. It is not recommended to chase the high price, and a medium - to - long - term short - position with a hedging strategy is advisable [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates narrowly. The market has a large divergence. The total market inventory has decreased, and the price of Australian ore remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a weakening trend. The supply in the main production areas of Sichuan and Yunnan may decrease during the dry season, and the demand may be suppressed by the joint production cuts of silicone enterprises, but the price decline is expected to be limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon strengthened again today after a callback due to position limits yesterday. The main driver is the expectation of tight delivery products. In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate due to potential regulatory rules and national meetings [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips. Monitor macro - end changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - Expect industrial silicon prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply - demand in December [5]. Polysilicon - Anticipate an oversupply situation in December with inventory accumulation expected in all sectors. On the trading side, stay on the sidelines for futures and consider taking profits on options [6]. Nickel - Forecast the nickel price to range - bound in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [7]. Stainless Steel - Expect stainless steel prices to remain weakly oscillating, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [9]. Aluminum - Predict alumina prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. For aluminum, expect prices to be strong in the short term, with the main contract range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton [15][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Forecast casting aluminum alloy prices to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [17]. Zinc - Expect zinc prices to oscillate. The downside space is limited in the short term, and prices will likely remain in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to TC inflection points and inventory changes [19]. Copper - Forecast copper prices to have a gradually rising bottom center in the medium - to - long term, with the main support level at 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.14% to 304700 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 21.95% to 150 dollars/ton [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 22.39% to - 820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 250% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re -投料 average price remained unchanged at 52350 yuan/kg, and the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between the front - month and the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.13% to 119900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [9]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.09% to 21710 yuan/ton, and alumina (Shandong) average price decreased by 0.36% [14][16]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21600 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed raw aluminum scrap - to - refined spread decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.80% to 22740 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 243.79% in October [19]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.69% to 88660 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton [20]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 15.61% in October [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices were strong, hitting record highs. The US manufacturing PMI in November was below expectations, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in December, which could affect global liquidity. Domestically, the estimated copper production in December is expected to increase, but demand has slowed due to high prices. With the Fed's December rate - cut fully priced in, there is uncertainty about whether the macro - environment can remain optimistic, and the price's continued rise is also uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. The expected environmental restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and复产 increased. High - price aluminum led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and inventory decreased. However, with the end of new energy vehicle purchase tax promotions and the completion of State Grid orders, the possibility of aluminum prices hitting new highs this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices fell slightly, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain was weak. In the new energy industry chain, raw materials were tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, one can consider buying at low prices, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was weak, and the BOJ's potential rate - hike may impact liquidity. Domestic production is expected to increase in December, but demand is sluggish. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The sustainability of price increases is uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices trended strongly, while spot prices had mixed performance. The non - occurrence of environmental restrictions and new production affected supply expectations. Demand was released in the short - term, but future growth is limited [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Futures prices rose, and inventory pressure increased. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry was weak, and the new energy industry faced a decline in precursor output. Consider buying at low prices with caution [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 89,195 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from November 28. LME inventory remained unchanged, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE total inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased [8]. - **Tin**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 2.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research and have won many industry awards [52][53].