1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak with downward - trending futures prices. Supply pressure persists, while demand is sluggish. Short - term spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices maintained a high - level oscillation. The market trading atmosphere was weak. With a stable supply and resilient demand, short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [1]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in range oscillation. Cost support was prominent. With supply constraints and mild demand recovery, short - term ADC12 prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated. Supply is abundant, and the second - half production increase of domestic zinc smelters is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [6]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated. Macro factors and supply shortages support prices, while high prices suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 84000 - 85000 support level [8]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply is tight, while demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese supply. If supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they will likely oscillate at a high level [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices rose slightly. Macro risks increased, with cost support but inventory pressure. The mid - term supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Macro factors are favorable, but demand is weak, and supply pressure exists. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated narrowly. After entering the peak season, supply - demand gaps remain. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, with the main contract in the range of 75000 - 78000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.19% to 20970 yuan/ton, while alumina prices in various regions declined [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21050 yuan/ton, and some scrap - refined spreads increased [3]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.32% to 21940 yuan/ton [6]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.12% to 85730 yuan/ton [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.46% to 281300 yuan/ton [10]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.33% to 122500 yuan/ton, and 304/2B stainless steel prices increased slightly [12][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.14% to 74100 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [1]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [3]. - **Zinc**: In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [6]. - **Copper**: In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [8]. - **Tin**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 tons [10]. - **Nickel**: In September, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and imports increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - For zinc, the short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 84,390, down 1,520 (-1.77%) from October 10. The spot price was 84,835, down 1,840 (-2.12%) [7] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 20,910, down 70 (-0.33%) from October 10. The spot price was 20,960, down 60 (-0.29%) [7] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 21,815, down 455 (-2.04%) from October 10. The spot price was 21,856, down 854 (-3.76%) [7] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 280,750, down 5,600 (-1.96%) from October 10. The spot price was 281,250, down 7,000 (-2.43%) [7] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 121,160, down 1,020 (-0.83%) from October 10. The spot price was 122,780, down 1,080 (-0.87%) [7] 3.2 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast 3.2.1 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price remained high. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. The shutdown of the US federal government has hindered the release of key macro - economic data. Domestically, the operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, and the supply surplus pressure still exists. As winter storage approaches, the spot procurement enthusiasm of some aluminum plants has increased, but the overall spot market is still in a state of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5% last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [9] - Viewpoint: The macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical crisis, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [11] 3.2.2 Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price回调 downward. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates continued to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing operating rate last week was 58.05%, up 11.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of October 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [13] - Viewpoint: The short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine - end production, and the release of consumption [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan in the week of October 17 was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the average price of the imported bauxite index was 74.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 from the week of October 10 [17] - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of October 17 was 3743,700 tons, up 878,500 tons from the week of October 10; the departure volume at ports was 406,390 tons, up 24,130 tons from the week of October 10 [20] - Alumina: - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan in the week of October 17 was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the full cost was 2,851.5 yuan/ton, down 25.1 from the week of October 10; the profit in Shanxi was - 60.06 yuan/ton, down 32.72 from the week of October 10 [23] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: The total cost in the week of October 17 was 16,144.6 yuan/ton, down 68.1 from the week of October 10 [27] - Regional price difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum in the week of October 17 was - 110 yuan/ton, down 40 from the week of October 10 [27] - Operating rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables in the week of October 16 was 64, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 72.3, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 68, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 53.5, down 0.1 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, up 0.4 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6, down 0.3 from the week of October 9 [29][30] - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai in the week of October 16 was 60,300 tons, down 5,000 tons from the week of October 9; the total bonded area inventory was 80,300 tons, down 7,000 tons from the week of October 9; the social inventory in the week of October 20 was 625,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from the week of October 13; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas in the week of October 13 was 145,000 tons, unchanged from the week of September 29; the SHFE inventory in the week of October 17 was 122,028 tons, down 2,749 tons from the week of October 10; the LME inventory in the week of October 16 was 491,225 tons, down 17,600 tons from the week of October 9 [35][36] - Spot: - Basis: The basis for the current month in the week of October 17 was 65 yuan/ton, up 65 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 40 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10 [41] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [42] 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrates in the week of October 17 was 16,924 yuan/metal ton, down 210 from the week of October 10; the domestic processing fee was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, down 100 from the week of October 10; the imported processing fee was 118.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.2 from the week of October 10 [49] - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit in the week of October 17 was 4,024 yuan/metal ton, down 260 from the week of October 10; the import profit and loss was - 2,255.38 yuan/ton, down 177.47 from the week of October 10; the inventory of imported zinc concentrates at Lianyungang in the week of October 17 was 140,000 physical tons, unchanged from the week of October 10 [52] - Refined zinc: - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions in the week of October 20 was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from the week of October 13; the bonded area inventory of zinc ingots in the week of October 16 was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the week of October 9; the SHFE refined zinc inventory in the week of October 17 was 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons from the week of October 10; the LME zinc inventory in the week of October 16 was 38,025 tons, up 75 tons from the week of October 9 [55] - Galvanized: - Output: The output in the week of October 16 was 336,490 tons, up 58,860 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Operating rate: The operating rate in the week of October 16 was 58.05, up 11.22 from the week of October 9 [58] - Inventory: The raw material inventory in the week of October 16 was 13,910 tons, down 1,650 tons from the week of October 9; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, down 3,700 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Zinc: - Basis: The basis for the current month of SMM 0 zinc ingots in the week of October 17 was 35 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 35 yuan/ton, up 5 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [61] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton, up 20 from the week of October 10 [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Copper prices declined from high levels today, accelerating the decline in the afternoon with a continuous decrease in open interest. After a short - term market rebound, there is a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Macroscopically, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals all declined. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices also declined from high levels today, accelerating the decline in the afternoon with little change in overall open interest. After a short - term market rebound, there is a strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Macroscopically, stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals all declined. It is expected that aluminum prices will stabilize with fluctuations [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices significantly declined with an increase in open interest today, and the main contract price fell below the 121,000 yuan mark. The short - term decline was caused by long - position holders in the non - ferrous sector closing their positions, and nickel may be used as a short - allocation position in the sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in October will drop to 67.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46 percentage points. Although it is a year - on - year increase of 2.44 percentage points, the overall operation is slow. The National Day holiday led to some enameled wire enterprises having holidays or reducing production, directly dragging down the industry's operating rate. From the demand side, the demand for enameled wires from power transformers and new - energy - related end - users is stable and improving, and there is also an expectation of warming in the end - user home appliance demand. However, high copper prices significantly suppress orders, and enterprises are cautious about order growth expectations [8]. - **Aluminum**: Rio Tinto (RIO) achieved significant growth in the production of key products in the third quarter. Bauxite production climbed to 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; alumina production increased by 7% to 1.9 million tons; copper production also increased by 10% to 204,000 tons. The company's CEO pointed out that its bauxite business and the Oyu Tolgoi mine both set production records. The underground expansion project of the Oyu Tolgoi mine is expected to increase this year's copper production by more than 50%, and the Simandou project has also made important progress. Currently, Rio Tinto is enhancing shareholder value by improving operational efficiency and controlling capital expenditures and maintaining its 2025 production targets [9]. - **Nickel**: On October 14, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 100 yuan/ton, showing a decrease [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts like nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][38][40]

Report Overview - Report date: October 13, 2025 [3] - Report type: Daily report on non-ferrous metals [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of Sino-US trade friction, copper prices dropped sharply in the night session last Friday, with Shanghai copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in the night session on Friday. Before the domestic opening on Monday, LME copper prices rebounded from the bottom, and the pessimistic sentiment did not continue. Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and oscillated around 85,000 yuan. It is expected that copper prices will continue to stabilize and rebound [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices also dropped sharply in the night session last Friday due to the expectation of Sino-US trade friction, with Shanghai aluminum falling nearly 300 yuan/ton. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in the night session on Friday. Before the domestic opening on Monday, LME aluminum prices rebounded from the bottom, and the pessimistic sentiment did not continue. Shanghai aluminum opened higher in the morning and maintained an oscillating trend, with the position volume decreasing. Technically, pay attention to the technical pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices followed the non-ferrous metal sector down in the night session last Friday, but the decline was not large. After a slight rebound in the morning, it maintained an oscillating trend during the day. The non-ferrous metal sector was under pressure due to the intensification of Sino-US trade friction, and nickel prices were less affected. However, the overall weakness of the non-ferrous metal sector also put pressure on nickel prices. The position volume of Shanghai nickel continued to rise during the day. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On October 13, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 181,000 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from last Thursday and 24,300 tons from last Monday [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 13, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 642,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 55,000 tons from last Monday [9]. - **Nickel**: On October 13, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -150 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper month spread, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [11][13][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The report provides charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27][29][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, Shanghai nickel month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][39][42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose and then fell, with LME copper approaching its historical high. The US government shutdown and delayed economic data have led to differences among Fed officials on whether to cut interest rates in October. LME, Comex, and domestic social copper inventories have increased, and downstream procurement is cautious at high prices. The impact of the Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia on global copper supply in Q4 2025 and 2026 is a fact, which is expected to support copper prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Alumina market news is scarce, and it continues to be in an oversupply situation. After the short - term price increase of electrolytic aluminum, the market has pinned its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. Pay attention to the post - holiday inventory - consumption trend, and beware of price corrections if the destocking is less than expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia has introduced a new policy on mining production quotas. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks need to be watched. Stainless steel is under pressure, and the new energy industry chain is expected to see increased demand. Shanghai nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors and inventory increases have affected copper prices. The mine accident impact on supply is expected to support prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and monitor price differences [1]. - **Aluminum**: Post - holiday prices are slightly stronger. Alumina is in surplus, and electrolytic aluminum consumption hopes are on "Silver October". Monitor inventory - consumption trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices are affected by macro and policy factors. Nickel ore operations are stable, but policy risks exist. Stainless steel is under pressure, and new energy demand is expected to increase. Prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On October 9, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 85,720 yuan/ton, up 2,525 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 3,925 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,910 yuan/ton on October 9, up 30 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 1,375 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 7,315 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 4,825 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On October 9, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 124,825 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from September 30. LME inventory increased by 5,580 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 42 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from September 30. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.78 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On October 9, the main settlement price was 285,070 yuan/ton, up 2.3% from September 30. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and上期所 inventory decreased by 130 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly, with domestic spot imports in a loss situation. The strong real - estate demand in the US exceeded market expectations, showing economic resilience. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia may have a long - term impact on copper supply, and it is expected to drive a significant increase in the average copper price in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to follow the trend and mainly go long on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. However, domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. The subsequent increase in aluminum prices depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The bottom of the nickel price may rise slightly due to macro factors, supply - side disturbances, and the strengthening of raw material prices, but inventory remains a resistance to the price increase [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - **Macro**: US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, much higher than the expected 650,000 units, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman and called for a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year [1]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 144,775 tons to 200 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 142 tons to 288,695 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, and BC copper remained at 6,445 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers are afraid of high copper prices and macro uncertainties, with weak procurement enthusiasm, and domestic social inventory de - stocking is not ideal [1]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia is expected to reduce copper and gold production by about 35% (about 270,000 tons) in 2026 compared to previous expectations, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will also be greatly affected [1]. Aluminum - **Futures**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,916 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; AL2510 closed at 20,805 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; AD2511 closed at 20,435 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1][2]. - **Spot**: SMM alumina price dropped to 3,008 yuan/ton, aluminum ingot spot discount was 10 yuan/ton to par, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,620 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point, and downstream procurement willingness has declined [2]. Nickel - **Futures**: LME nickel rose 0.62% to 15,435 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.88% to 122,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 132 tons to 120,586 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons to 24,971 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sanctions on 39 nickel - mining enterprises in Indonesia have little impact on overall supply. In the stainless - steel sector, cost support has strengthened, but supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand has weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may be relatively tight [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons, and the total inventory increased by 11,760 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 3,450 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 9,229 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 1,224 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 765 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 2,334 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.5%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 17 US dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown [43][45][49]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a master's degree in science and is currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [52]. - **Wang Heng**: He holds a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is mainly responsible for the research on aluminum and silicon [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: She holds a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK, and focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Neutral (represented by white stars, indicating short - term equilibrium and low operability) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Alumina: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Zinc: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Lead: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Tin: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] Core Views - The performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are affected by seasonal factors, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][4] - There are differences in price trends among metals, with some in a bullish or bearish state, and some in a state of short - term equilibrium, requiring different investment strategies such as observation, holding, or partial profit - taking [2][7][11] Summaries by Metals Copper - Wednesday saw a narrow - range shock in Shanghai copper with reduced positions. Spot copper was reported at 80,045 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium remained at 55 yuan. With mediocre manufacturing performance in Europe and the US in September, there was pre - holiday stocking, but concerns about copper - related consumption indicators remained, and social inventory was still accumulating this month. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations, and the spot premium and discount in various regions rebounded slightly. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, but the apparent demand in September was lower than expected. There were signs of inventory reduction in aluminum ingots due to pre - holiday replenishment, and Shanghai aluminum was expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. Alumina's operating capacity reached a record high of nearly 98 million tons, and industry inventory continued to rise. With obvious supply surplus, prices were falling. The current price still allowed profit for production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was difficult to trigger production cuts, and the support level was around 2,800 yuan in June [3] Zinc - The import loss of zinc ingots exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, and the expectation of zinc exports strengthened. LME zinc fell from a high. In China, the consumption peak season was not prosperous. Affected by tariffs, the export of galvanized sheets weakened in August. Under the influence of Super Typhoon "Hagupit", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened. Shanghai zinc continued to decline with increasing positions, and the lower support level was at 21,500 yuan/ton [4] Lead - The profit of recycled lead was repaired, and the expectation of resuming production strengthened. The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises made rigid and selective purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking demand was coming to an end. High - price lead ingot transactions were weak. Some long - position holders in the futures market took profits at high prices. Shanghai lead felt obvious pressure at 17,200 yuan/ton. There were still plans for primary lead smelters to conduct maintenance in late September, and the overall increase in recycled lead supply was limited. The supply - demand of lead was weak on both sides, and the contradiction was limited. It was expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with dull market trading. Short - term macro - favorable factors were basically exhausted, and the cost - side had insufficient upward momentum, so the rising trend of stainless steel spot prices was difficult to sustain. However, the pre - National Day stocking demand was gradually emerging, and stainless steel mills were still in a state of cost inversion, showing cost - side support. The pure nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and nickel prices were in a weak state and about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed up with a shock. Today's spot tin was 271,400 yuan, and the delivery month was at par with the spot in real - time. Overnight, LME tin fluctuated above the key support level of $34,000. There were still supply - side themes in the market, including the slow resumption of Burmese ore supply and the uncertainty of mining certificates for Indonesian coal mines and various ore types. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices fluctuated strongly in the short term, and market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons. The lower support for lithium prices was evident, but the selling actions in the industrial chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of anti - involution, the price was pressured by expectations [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price strengthened, mainly due to the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan continued their high operating rates during the wet season. On the demand side, the incremental release of polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the SMM latest industrial silicon social inventory increased by 4,000 tons week - on - week. Although the market sentiment and cost expectations drove the short - term strengthening of the futures price, the support for continuous rise was insufficient, and it was expected to continue to fluctuate [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price strengthened today, mainly due to a technical rebound and the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re -投料 was stable at 50,300 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM). In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month changes. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon were expected to be adjusted down synchronously, and there was still a slight pressure of inventory accumulation for polysilicon. On the policy side, the elimination of production capacity continued to be advanced gradually, and the current supply - demand pattern did not provide strong support. Without substantial new favorable factors, the short - term futures price was expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to take partial profits during the technical rebound [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today, with the decline in open interest slowing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. The industry is entering the peak season, and the decline in copper prices may increase downstream replenishment willingness. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly in the morning but fell continuously during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. After the Fed's interest rate cut, previous long - positions were continuously liquidated. Downstream replenishment willingness is weak, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been accumulating this week. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced significant technical pressure after hitting a high in March and then falling back [6]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose in the morning, with the main contract price approaching the 122,000 level, and fluctuated during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. Domestically, nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices rebounded with a reduction in positions, indicating strong short - covering willingness. As macro disturbances decline, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the construction mobilization meeting of the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was held. The project, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan, will be fully operational in 2029, and will directly boost copper cable demand. This week, copper cable downstream industries' demand was weak due to high copper prices. State Grid orders remained flat, automotive wiring harness orders were stable, and construction and two - grid orders are expected to be released in October. High copper prices have also weakened enterprises' procurement willingness, leading to a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in sample enterprises' finished - product inventory ratio. The enameled wire industry showed a slight increase in the operating rate but faced pressure on new orders, with new orders decreasing by 1.07 percentage points month - on - month [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On September 19, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,750 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No clear rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No clear rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating provided [1] - Zinc: No clear rating provided [3] - Lead and Stainless Steel: No clear rating provided [1] - Tin: No clear rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating provided [9] - Polysilicon: No clear rating provided [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market sentiment has changed. Different metals have different price trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1][3] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various metals are different, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw a reduction in positions in Shanghai copper, approaching the support of medium - and long - term moving averages. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled. The spot copper price was 80,600 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium shrank to 60 yuan. The social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons this week. The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, and the spot discounts in various regions slightly narrowed. The downstream开工 continued to seasonally recover, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing slightly by 100 tons compared to Monday. The industry drive is currently weak, and Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high. Cast aluminum alloy followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price dropping by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy increases enterprise costs, so it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continued to be adjusted down by 5 - 10 yuan. There is an expectation of mine复产 in Guinea, and the strike has not affected production for the time being. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [2] Zinc - After the Fed's expected 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again. The de - stocking pace of LME zinc slowed down, and the total inventory was still less than 50,000 tons. The weak domestic and strong overseas fundamentals led to an extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets. After the zinc ingot export window was approaching to open, the price difference began to converge. The increase in global mine supply continued to be realized, and the overall supply of zinc ingots was sufficient. The general direction of short - selling on rallies remained unchanged. Given the differentiation of domestic and foreign fundamentals, it is necessary to focus on the change in LME zinc inventory. If there is obvious warehousing action in the overseas market, Shanghai zinc is expected to break below the 22,000 - yuan level; if the LME zinc inventory remains at a low level, Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around 22,000 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Due to the low operating rate of secondary lead smelters and the maintenance of primary lead smelters in the early stage, and the maintenance plan of medium - and large - scale smelters in late September, coupled with the downstream's stockpiling for the National Day holiday, the supply of lead ingots tightened. The SMM social inventory of lead decreased to 67,600 tons. The fundamentals of lead improved in the short term. Shanghai lead continued its independent trend during the day, with bulls increasing positions, and there is still some upside potential for Shanghai lead. However, after the lead price rebounded, the SMM 1 lead had a discount of 145 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, the profit of secondary lead was restored, the price difference between refined and scrap lead widened to 100 yuan/ton, the expectation of secondary lead smelters resuming production strengthened, and the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. The resistance for the lead price rebound is seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - After the interest rate cut, in the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed in the negative territory near the MA60 moving average, and the spot tin price was adjusted down to 270,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of the overseas market at $34,000. The spot discount of LME 0 - 3 months has widened to $167. Wait for the specific import and export data of tin. If Shanghai tin effectively breaks below the 60 - day moving average, it means weak consumption. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, the downstream took the opportunity to purchase. The inventory of traders decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector became cautious, and the transfer of cargo rights was mainly due to the upstream selling to the downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore was $810, and the ore - end quotation rebounded slightly, matching the lithium - price fluctuations. The low - level support of the lithium - carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut, the overall trend was weak [8] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. From the weekly operating situation, the production reduction of downstream silicone and polysilicon was limited. The monthly surplus risk mainly came from the increase in the operating rate in the Xinjiang production area and the maintenance of the existing operating level in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas. In general, the room for fundamental improvement was limited, and it was difficult to form a strong upward - driving force. More positive factors were needed to effectively break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The energy - consumption limit standard has entered the solicitation stage. The price of spot M - type re - feeding material increased slightly, with the current quotation range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule of the polysilicon industry in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The resistance above the futures price has not been broken through, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [10]