1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The import loss of domestic refined copper narrowed. The US durable goods orders increased by 5.3%, and the market's bet on a new US government shutdown by the end of January reached 78%. In December, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 48.44% year - on - year, while waste copper imports increased. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased. Although high copper prices have weakened consumption and increased inventory, the spill - over effect of the bullish sentiment in precious metals and the capital's pursuit of non - ferrous metals still maintain the upward momentum of copper prices. The current copper price should be evaluated from a financial perspective, and the overall trend is considered bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strongly volatile. The spot price of alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Due to environmental control in Henan, alumina production was restricted, and inventory decreased. After the price adjustment, downstream demand improved, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will be supported upwards before the holiday. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and holiday arrangements [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, both LME and Shanghai nickel prices declined, and inventories increased. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore production will decrease by 10% - 15% this year. The price of nickel - related products has increased, but the production of primary nickel has increased significantly, and the social inventory has also increased, which may put pressure on the price. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the cost line for potential long - entry opportunities and the actual implementation of policies [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The fundamental and financial factors jointly affect copper prices. The financial attribute is more important at present, and the overall trend is bullish and volatile [1]. - **Aluminum**: Environmental control affects production, downstream demand improves, and the price is expected to be supported upwards [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy supports the price in the short term, but the increase in production and inventory may cause pressure. The price may fluctuate widely at a high level [2][3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1585 yuan/ton, and the import loss narrowed. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 4250 yuan/ton, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the inventory increased [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.5%, and the inventory increased [7]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 - 2026 [13][14][21][27][33][40].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国 Q3 实际 | | | | | | | | | GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%;美 | | | | | | | | | 11 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，环比涨 0.2%，均符合预期,通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳 | | | | | | | | | | 健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降 | | | | | | | | 息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME 库存增加 8850 吨至 168250 吨；Comex | | 库存增加 | | | | | | | 4031 吨至 507437 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2408 吨至 143173 吨，BC 铜下降 75 吨至 | | | | 10685 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not provided - Aluminum: Not provided - Alumina: Not provided - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not provided - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not provided - Tin: Not provided - Lithium Carbonate: Not provided - Industrial Silicon: Not provided - Polysilicon: Not provided Core Views - The market for various non - ferrous metals shows different trends and investment opportunities, with factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy influencing prices [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper warehouse receipts oscillate and decline, with spot copper at 101,855 tons, Shanghai copper at a discount of 125 yuan, and Yangshan copper premium shrinking to $32. The domestic copper social inventory exceeded 320,000 tons. The average annual compound growth rate of the State Grid's "15th Five - Year" investment is 7%, down from 8% in the past five years. Continue the previous strategy of selling call options at high levels [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, with spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan dropping to - 180 yuan, - 330 yuan, and 150 yuan respectively. Aluminum rod processing fees remained negative, and inventory continued to accumulate. Wait for volatility to decline before participating. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, and the market is not very active. Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in significant surplus. When the basis weakens, go short on alumina at high levels [2] Zinc - The US not imposing Section 232 tariffs on key minerals and LME's suspension of warehousing for 2 zinc ingot brands have led to short - term market fluctuations. The market is expected to gradually return to fundamental trading, and the short - term correction target for Shanghai zinc is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. Stainless steel market inquiries and transactions were relatively active, but fear of high prices is rising. The expected production of stainless steel plants in January still has an increase. Short - term trading can follow the strategy of low - buying [6] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased with reduced positions, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly this week. The overall boost to tin consumption in the first quarter is expected to be around 1200 tons. Continue the strategy of selling call options with high strike prices near expiration [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down. The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants is changing, with an increased willingness to sell spot orders. The overall demand remains resilient. The market has seen its first week of inventory increase, but downstream destocking is fast. The short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price slightly declined, giving up intraday gains. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest, while the demand is dragged down by the production cut plan of leading enterprises. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to have limited downside space, with attention on the support at 8400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price got support at 48,000 yuan/ton and then rebounded due to short - covering. The short - term demand is boosted by the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the industry is facing stricter supervision and high inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate around the support level [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that non-ferrous metal futures experienced a decline during the night trading session on January 12, with nickel futures on the Shanghai exchange dropping by over 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to be cautious in operations. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. The aluminum price will maintain a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum operating in the range of 23,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel Industry - The nickel price has fallen significantly. The market is affected by Indonesia's unclear nickel - mine quota and geopolitical risks. The short - term price will be in a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 130,000 - 135,000 [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market is affected by nickel - mine raw - material expectations. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 13,200 - 14,000 [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 22,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium - carbonate market's fundamentals are weak in the off - season, but the post - holiday news boosts the sentiment. The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and attention should be paid to the liquidity risk and regulatory possibility [13]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - valued irrationally. The short - term price will still maintain a relatively strong trend, and the volatility may increase [15]. Zinc Industry - The zinc price will fluctuate in the short term. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc - mine supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial - silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon market has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to the increase in production cuts and the re - distribution of industrial - chain profits [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.25% to 355,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 128.57% to 800 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 72% to - 350 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin - ore imports increased by 29.81%. In December, SMM refined - tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. SHEF and social inventories decreased [2]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.58% to 24,000 yuan/ton. The AL 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - aluminum production increased by 3.97%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 8.18% [5]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.73% to 149,050 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 310 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined - nickel product output decreased by 9.38%, and imports increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [6]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 1.08% to 13,800 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 2.5%. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [9]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.43% to 23,600 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%. The recycled - aluminum alloy inventory decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.75% to 138,500 yuan/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium - carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.5%. Total inventory decreased by 12.23% [13]. Copper Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 1.28% to 102,085 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic - copper production increased by 6.8%. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 16.65% [15]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.53% to 24,170 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined - zinc production decreased by 7.24%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 11.69% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: East - China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 445 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial - silicon production decreased by 1.15%. Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46%. Social inventory decreased by 0.9% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Spread**: The main - contract price of polysilicon decreased by 8.04% to 53,610 yuan/ton. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread increased by 1,215 yuan/ton to 1,415 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Polysilicon production decreased slightly by 0.83% on a weekly basis. The silicon - wafer inventory increased by 13.11% [22].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the copper market, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has significantly declined due to high prices. Attention should be paid to price support near the psychological price levels of downstream buyers. The continuous high export data of domestic electrolytic copper has led to an unobvious inventory accumulation rate. Looking ahead, macro - level factors such as changes in domestic risk appetite and the Fed's actions, as well as industrial - level factors like the narrowing of the New York spread and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions, should be monitored [1]. - In the aluminum market, the actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected, with signs of weakening in both domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption. Although the basis is at a multi - year low, the low inventory level and strong expectations can support the current high prices [1]. - In the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are currently poor, but there are temporary supply reductions at the end of the year, making it difficult for the price center to fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal and external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [2]. - In the nickel market, the short - term fundamental reality is weak. There is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the news of Indonesia's quota reduction plan, increasing the motivation for long - position trading [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the fundamentals remain weak overall, but the news of quota reduction from the Indonesian Nickel Association has driven a short - term price rebound [7]. - In the lead market, the supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the lead ingot spot is still in short supply, with low inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - In the tin market, there are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals. In the short term, the supply may be volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of marginal over - supply. It can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter [12]. - In the industrial silicon market, the supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [15][16]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has provided some support. The raw material supply is still tight, and the upstream is mainly focused on long - term contracts, with the manufacturer's inventory being depleted [20]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 5, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 574, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,211. The spot import profit increased by 221.84, and the three - month import profit increased by 119.19 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market's high - price suppression of downstream demand and the impact of export data on inventory, along with macro and industrial factors, need to be monitored [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 140, and the aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000. The spot import profit increased by 130.41, and the three - month import profit decreased by 288.47 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Weakening domestic demand, low basis, and low inventory levels support high prices [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2500. The spot import profit increased by 463.17, and the futures import profit increased by 243.33 [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term supply reduction, and trading strategy suggestions [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1800, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 666. The spot import return increased by 9963.54 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak short - term fundamentals and a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Weak fundamentals and short - term price rebound driven by policy news [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the lead spot premium decreased by 15, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3975. The spot import return increased by 242.86 [8][24]. - **Market Outlook**: Alleviated supply - demand mismatch, short - supply of spot, and expected price fluctuations [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the tin spot import return increased by 412.06, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged. The tin持仓 decreased by 7626 [12]. - **Market Outlook**: Marginal weakening of fundamentals and supply - related risks [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 445, and the 553 East China basis increased by 445. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 7 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Approaching supply - demand balance in the short term and long - term price cycle bottom oscillation [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 5000, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 590. The main contract basis increased by 2300 [20]. - **Market Outlook**: Impact of downstream production and subsidy policies on price, tight raw material supply, and inventory depletion [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined, with losses in domestic refined copper imports. The recent economic and employment data in the US show signs of economic recovery since the government shutdown in November, but the future guidance remains weak. Due to the persistently high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed down, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. After an orderly adjustment, it is beneficial for the subsequent market development, and the sustainability should be monitored [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weakening trend. The inventory of aluminum ore is high, and the short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. The news of the National Development and Reform Commission encouraging industrial restructuring and integration has reduced the downward - driving force on the futures market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has led to a continuous rise in aluminum prices. Currently, there is a certain inventory accumulation pressure, and the divergence between macro and micro factors poses new challenges to the further rise of aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the precious metal's popularity and the feedback from downstream sentiment [1][3]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The recent rapid rise in nickel prices is mainly affected by market sentiment and Indonesian policies. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, the output of primary nickel has increased significantly, and hedging demand may put pressure on the futures price. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of Indonesian policies and market sentiment, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment and consider the opportunity of going long on forward contracts at low prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Key Points | | --- | --- | | Copper | - Macro: US economic and employment data show recovery since November, but future guidance is weak. <br> - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,256 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,203 tons, and BC copper remained at 1,053 tons. <br> - Demand: Terminal orders slowed due to high prices, with rigid procurement demand. <br> - Market: After an orderly adjustment, it benefits subsequent market development [1]. | | Aluminum | - Futures: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices declined overnight. <br> - Spot: SMM alumina price fell, aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed, and some aluminum product processing fees changed. <br> - Market: Ore inventory is high, short - term premium purchasing sentiment of alumina plants is low. Policy news reduces downward - driving force, and Fed rate - cut expectation drives up aluminum prices. There is inventory accumulation pressure and challenges to further price increases [1][3]. | | Nickel | - Price: LME nickel fell 4.21%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.44%. <br> - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 20,088 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons. <br> - News: Indonesian nickel production plan may decrease in 2026, some mines are suspended, and the domestic trade benchmark price rose slightly. <br> - Market: Price rise is affected by sentiment and policies, and hedging demand may pressure prices. Chasing high is risky, and long - term low - price buying opportunities can be considered [4]. | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, the price of 1 bright scrap copper remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,203 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [6]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the prices of some lead products also increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 909 tons [6]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of无锡 and南海 aluminum increased, and the prices of some raw materials decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,726 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [7]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased, and the prices of some nickel products changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 612 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 2,122 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%, and the prices of some zinc products decreased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.52 million tons [9]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price increased by 4.5%, and the prices of some tin products increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory decreased by 541 tons [9]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2026 [15][20][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the "Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award" for four consecutive years [49]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides services such as policy interpretation and risk management for clients [49]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and provides policy interpretation and writes in - depth reports [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting production decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook towards a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, the LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting production continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 98,800 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of - 240 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $12,461/ton, an LME spot premium of $38.60/ton, an LME inventory of 147,425 tons, and an inventory daily change of - 2,050 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,950 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 220 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $3,021/ton, the LME spot premium is - $24.94/ton, the LME inventory is 511,750 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 23,400 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 115 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $3,127/ton, an LME spot premium of - $36.25/ton, an LME inventory of 107,625 tons, and an inventory daily change of 1,300 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 130,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,500 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $16,760/ton, the LME spot premium is - $143.68/ton, the LME inventory is 255,162 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 70 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $1,994/ton, the LME spot premium is - $46.54/ton, the LME inventory is 241,925 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 3,350 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 327,680 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,520 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $40,250/ton, the LME spot premium is - $1.00/ton, the LME inventory is 5,420 tons, and the inventory daily change is 90 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, smelting production shows high growth, power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting production continues to grow, the galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 3.99% to $12,673.5 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract rose 1.85% to 99,220 yuan per ton. The import of domestic refined copper spot remained at a loss. The Fed's meeting minutes indicated a possible further interest - rate cut. In China, recent policies boosted market confidence. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose. Downstream procurement became cautious, and copper prices were repaired due to domestic stimulus policies, but investors were reminded to operate cautiously during the New Year holiday [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. The SMM alumina price declined, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Alumina factories had high ore reserves, and the cost of alumina continued to decline. The pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation increased, and short - term macro - micro differences restricted the upward movement of near - month contracts [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.47% to $16,780 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 3.64% to 134,400 yuan per ton. The planned nickel ore output in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly. The government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula. The fundamentals showed that nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and stainless - steel inventory decreased. The theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. Supported by news, nickel prices strengthened, but the actual implementation remained uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases, import losses, macro - policy impacts, inventory changes, and downstream procurement trends. In the domestic market, policies boosted confidence, and copper prices were repaired, but holiday risks existed [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increases, price and inventory changes in the spot market, alumina cost reduction, and inventory accumulation pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, news of production reduction and policy changes in Indonesia, stable domestic nickel ore prices, and changes in the stainless - steel and nickel - sulfate markets. News boosted nickel prices, but the actual situation was uncertain [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in spot prices, scrap copper prices, and inventory levels [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in lead prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in aluminum prices, aluminum - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in nickel prices, nickel - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Zinc**: Gave price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in zinc prices, zinc - alloy prices, and inventory [6]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in tin prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Provided charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the non - ferrous metals research field, and are responsible for different research directions [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose then fell, erasing almost all gains; SHFE copper trended lower, dropping below 100,000 yuan/ton. Domestic refined copper imports remained at a loss. LME inventory decreased by 2,450 tons to 154,575 tons, Comex inventory increased by 4,880 tons to 443,003 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 21,200 tons to 214,800 tons. High copper prices made downstream procurement cautious, with exports becoming active. Affected by the precious metals market, copper prices may return to fundamentals after risk - release, and this decline may accumulate energy for future upward movement [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended lower. Alumina prices decreased to 2,702 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. With high ore reserves in alumina plants and lower long - term contract prices, alumina prices face downward pressure. The macro - sentiment is positive, but the release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure and put pressure on spot discounts [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.64% and SHFE nickel fell 0.81%. LME inventory decreased by 510 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 983 tons. The Indonesian nickel ore production plan for 2026 may be significantly reduced, and the government plans to revise the nickel benchmark price calculation formula. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and the theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. News may boost nickel prices, but the actual implementation is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME and SHFE copper showed different trends. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream procurement was cautious. The fall in copper prices may be a prelude to future upward movement [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all weakened. High ore reserves and lower costs put pressure on alumina prices. The release of backlogged goods and approaching the New Year will increase inventory pressure on aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel had opposite trends. Inventory changes were different. News from Indonesia may affect nickel prices, and the market is waiting for implementation [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices mostly increased, such as the price of flat - water copper rising by 2,990 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, while Comex and social inventories increased [1][3]. - **Aluminum**: Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes varied. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12,000 tons, while alumina inventory decreased by 29,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased. The social inventory of nickel also increased [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price increased by 0.4%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory changes were mixed. Social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [6]. - **Lead**: Market prices mostly increased, and inventory changes were mixed. LME inventory decreased by 4,625 tons, and domestic inventory decreased by 780 tons [3]. - **Tin**: The main contract price increased by 1.3%. Market prices generally rose, and inventory increased. LME inventory increased by 250 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 382 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][23][24][25][26][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46]. Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [48][49].