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一、动力煤:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年2月3日)-20260203
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 01:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 3, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the basis of power coal was - 116.4 on January 27, - 111.4 on January 28, and - 109.4 from January 29 to February 2 [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during the period from January 27 to February 2, 2026 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 127.38; for INE crude oil, the basis on February 2, 2026 was - 3.68; for crude oil/asphalt, the basis on February 2, 2026 was 0.1392 [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of some energy commodities was also provided, such as 99.68 for a certain ratio on February 2, 2026 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: For rubber, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 485, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 625, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was - 140; for methanol, the corresponding spreads were - 64, - 45, and 19; for PTA, they were 40, 38, and - 2; for LLDPE, they were - 35, 3, and 38; for PVC, they were - 218, - 101, and 117; for PP, they were 46, 72, and 26; for ethylene glycol, they were - 167, - 76, and 91 [9]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For example, on February 2, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1889, the LLDPE - PP spread was 171, the PP - PVC spread was 1718, and the PP - 3*methanol spread was - 93 [9]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rubber was - 80, methanol was - 4.5, PTA was - 72, LLDPE was 122, PVC was - 254, and PP was 76 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 82, the 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month spread was - 33, and the 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spread was 49; for iron ore, the corresponding spreads were 29, 12, and - 17; for coke, they were - 149, - 82, and 67; for coking coal, they were - 248.5, - 172, and 76.5 [19]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.96, the rebar/coke ratio was 18132.1, the coke/coking coal ratio was 4690, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was - 161 [19]. - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of rebar was 112, iron ore was 4, coke was - 175.5, and coking coal was 38.5 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of copper was 1460, aluminum was 635, zinc was 455, lead was - 70, nickel was 10760, and tin was 850 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Ascending/Descending Premium**: On February 2, 2026, the LME ascending/descending premium of copper was (59.17), aluminum was (22.32), zinc was (5.35), lead was (47.99), nickel was (218.73), and tin was (300.00) [34]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: On February 2, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper was 7.83, aluminum was 7.73, zinc was 7.53, lead was 8.49, nickel was 7.85, and tin was 8.16 [34]. - **CIF**: On February 2, 2026, the CIF of copper was 101532.75, aluminum was 25597.59, zinc was 27517.86, lead was 15764.97, nickel was 136168.76, and tin was 375735.34 [34]. - **Domestic Spot Price**: On February 2, 2026, the domestic spot price of copper was 101060, aluminum was 23680, zinc was 24970, lead was 16640, nickel was 140410, and tin was 392480 [34]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: On February 2, 2026, the import profit and loss of copper was (472.75), aluminum was (1917.59), zinc was (2547.86), lead was 875.03, nickel was 4241.24, and tin was 16744.66 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 233, soybeans No.2 was 96.22, soybean meal was 350, soybean oil was 578, and corn was 49 [38]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, for soybeans No.1, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread was - 28, the 9 - month minus 1 - month spread was 5, and the 9 - month minus 5 - month spread was 33 [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: On February 2, 2026, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.93, the soybeans No.2/corn ratio was 1.55, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.97, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 477, the soybean oil - palm oil spread was - 944, the rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread was 1082, and the corn - corn starch spread was - 249 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: On February 2, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 was - 20.84, SSE 50 was 133.85, CSI 500 was - 19.49, and CSI 1000 was - 5.74 [50]. - **Inter - period spreads**: For CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 46.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 1.2; for SSE 50, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 24.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 10.6; for CSI 500, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 35.2, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 145.6; for CSI 1000, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 38.8, and the next - quarter minus current - quarter spread was - 104.2 [50].
有色套利早报-20260202
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 01:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on February 2, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage - Copper: Spot price is 104,410 domestically and 13,186 on LME with a ratio of 8.22; March price is 103,900 domestically and 13,276 on LME with a ratio of 7.89. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.89 with a profit of 593.62, and spot export profit is - 1056.03 [1] - Zinc: Spot price is 25,780 domestically and 3,389 on LME with a ratio of 7.61; March price is 25,880 domestically and 3,398 on LME with a ratio of 4.98. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.29 with a profit of - 2310.86 [1] - Aluminum: Spot price is 24,660 domestically and 3,147 on LME with a ratio of 7.83; March price is 24,610 domestically and 3,174 on LME with a ratio of 7.84. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.32 with a profit of - 1523.22 [1] - Nickel: Spot price is 140,800 domestically and 17,664 on LME with a ratio of 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.04 with a profit of - 238.57 [1] - Lead: Spot price is 16,725 domestically and 1,964 on LME with a ratio of 8.49; March price is 16,945 domestically and 2,010 on LME with a ratio of 12.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.54 with a profit of - 93.77 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage - Copper: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 4990, - 4770, - 4500, - 4520 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 645, 1189, 1741, 2293 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 75, - 30, - 10, 0 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 233, 371, 510, 648 respectively [4] - Aluminum: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 895, - 845, - 760, - 715 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 238, 378, 517, 656 respectively [4] - Lead: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 230, - 150, - 85, - 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 530 respectively [4] - Nickel: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 6990, - 6590, - 6260, - 5990 respectively [4] - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread is - 2860 with a theoretical spread of 8460 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage - Copper: The spreads between the current - month contract, next - month contract and the spot are 4300, - 690 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 980, 829 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads between the current - month contract, next - month contract and the spot are 130, 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 148, 297 respectively [4] - Lead: The spreads between the current - month contract, next - month contract and the spot are 370, 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 182, 294 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - consecutive) are 4.01, 4.22, 6.13, 0.95, 1.45, 0.65 respectively, and in London (three - consecutive) are 3.87, 4.18, 6.55, 0.92, 1.56, 0.59 respectively [5]
铂钯周报-20260201
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 09:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum experienced a stage of unexpectedly large pullbacks, while palladium declined in tandem and was in a weak consolidation phase. Both platinum and palladium are considered weak. The price ranges are 500 - 600 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract in Guangzhou and 400 - 480 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract in Guangzhou [3][4]. - Platinum reached below the annual target value of $3000 per ounce and then lost its upward momentum. The forward discount in the London platinum market rapidly converged, and the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve disappeared. The change in the forward structure was likely due to the profit - taking of overseas forward long positions in the arbitrage portfolio after the narrowing of the internal - external price difference. There is a risk of further decline in the daily and weekly dimensions, but in the monthly and quarterly levels, platinum is expected to regain lost ground and revise its valuation upwards [4]. - Palladium showed more resilience than platinum in this pullback. Its London liquidity is tightening, ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, and there is a small inventory build - up in the US. It is still too early to say that palladium has returned to fundamental pricing, and it is expected to generally follow the fluctuations of other precious metals [4]. - Due to the significant fluctuations in the precious metals sector, all unilateral positions are recommended to enter on the right - hand side, and protection can be set through short - option positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) Trading Volume and Open Interest - As of the end of this week, the total open interest of platinum in Guangzhou was 33,860 lots, and the trading volume this week was 159,187 lots. The total open interest of palladium in Guangzhou was 12,615 lots, and the trading volume this week was 83,402 lots. Both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The price of platinum contract 08 is the lowest, and the structures of both platinum and palladium have switched to the B structure. Since platinum and palladium are in the initial listing stage, the inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has not been disclosed [8]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - In the short term, platinum has a large pullback and is expected to oscillate at a low level. One can consider the long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is below 1.2. In the first half of this week, palladium made up for its gains, and platinum had a significant pullback on Thursday and Friday, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to rapidly converge. As of the close on Friday, the overseas platinum - palladium ratio was 1.27, and the ratio in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.36 [10][12]. Overseas Futures - Spot Spread - **Platinum**: The spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract showed a large - scale inversion on Thursday but basically returned to the flat - water level on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply, changing from - $155 per ounce to $283 per ounce within the week [15]. - **Palladium**: The spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract fluctuated within a narrow range, reaching $10 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an enlarged fluctuation, with an average value of $40.2 per ounce this week [19]. Arbitrage Costs | Arbitrage Type | Cost | Spread | Profit Window | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Platinum Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 8.2 yuan/gram | - 7.8 yuan/gram | Not opened [21] | | Palladium Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 6.3 yuan/gram | - 20 yuan/gram | Not opened [23] | | Platinum Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 8.4 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [25] | | Palladium Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 6.2 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [27] | | Platinum Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 74.1 yuan/gram | 88.5 yuan/gram | 14.4 yuan/gram profit window [29] | | Palladium Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 57.5 yuan/gram | 51 yuan/gram | Not opened [31] | | Platinum Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Platinum Forward, Sell 2606) | 71.6 yuan/gram | 100.5 yuan/gram | 28.9 yuan/gram profit window [33] | | Palladium Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Palladium Forward, Sell 2606) | 54.7 yuan/gram | 59.5 yuan/gram | Almost no profit window [35] | Recycling Spread - This week, the platinum recycling discount widened and then rebounded to the level of - 86 yuan/gram, while the palladium recycling discount rapidly widened to the magnitude of - 100 yuan/gram [37]. ETF Holdings - This week, the platinum ETF holdings increased by 2.93 tons (about 94,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.92 tons (about 29,600 ounces). Both platinum and palladium ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, but the prices dropped significantly on Friday, so the subsequent flow of ETFs needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) Forward Discount Rates - In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discounts has diverged. The platinum forward discount continued to converge significantly, and on Friday, it broke the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve from Monday to Thursday, with the full - term discount now within 6%. The palladium forward discount quickly increased, reaching the level of 4% on Friday [44]. Inventory and Registered Warrant Ratio - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 655,200 ounces, approximately 20.37 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants increased accordingly, reaching 51.6% on Friday [45]. - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased to 224,000 ounces, approximately 6.97 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants continued to decline to 63.7% [48]. China's Import - Export Data - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and there has been a divergence between imports and net inflows. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both imports and exports increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. - **Palladium**: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, imports further increased to 5.68 tons, with a net inflow of 5.63 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance - A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance reached - 170 kg on Wednesday and returned to a positive value around Thursday. The London palladium fixing supply - demand balance also reached - 170 kg on Wednesday [57][58][59].
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260130
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is in a state of low valuation and low drive, with sufficient supply. The short - term price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking and differences in sugar production rates, but there is insufficient momentum for continued growth. It is not recommended to chase high prices for the SR2605 contract [2]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to the off - season of downstream products, but is supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to consider long - position allocation near 5200 [2][5]. - The double - offset paper market has limited upward space for futures prices. The cost - driven force is weakening, and short - term short - selling operations are recommended [6][8]. - The cotton market is expected to have a slow upward trend in the center of gravity. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple market's major support logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips for the 2605 contract [10]. - For the jujube market, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and investors can consider buying protective put options for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread strategy of short 2605 and long 2609 [12]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Buy on dips in the short - term. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Do not chase high prices. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Allocate long positions with a light position. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [20]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of apples in the producing areas remained stable this week. The transaction volume increased during the peak pre - holiday stocking period, and the cold - storage packaging and shipping speeds increased. The sales situation in the sales areas was fair, and the mainstream price remained stable [21][23]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - holiday sales speed is expected to be slower than last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [24]. - **Sugar Market**: As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. India's domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. - **Pulp Market**: The Chinese pulp market continued to weaken due to the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week this Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased, and the start - up load rate was 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, with the increase rate narrowing by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Cotton Market**: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% and a month - on - month increase of 0.88%. The new - season planting area of U.S. cotton is expected to be about 10 million acres, about 9% higher than the latest USDA forecast [31]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2605**: The closing price was 9642, with a daily increase of 110 and a daily increase rate of 1.15%. - **Jujube 2605**: The closing price was 8895, with a daily increase of 65 and a daily increase rate of 0.74%. - **Sugar 2605**: The closing price was 5257, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 1.35%. - **Pulp 2605**: The closing price was 5388, with a daily increase of 14 and a daily increase rate of 0.26%. - **Cotton 2605**: The closing price was 14910, with a daily decrease of 30 and a daily decrease rate of 0.20% [31]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - **Jujube**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 590 yuan. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1200 yuan. - **Double - offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang in Tianjin was 4350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 16103 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1377 yuan [38]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 5 - 10**: The spread was 1112, a month - on - month decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - **Jujube 5 - 9**: The spread was - 205, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 175. It is recommended to wait and see. - **Sugar 5 - 9**: The spread was - 12, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 145. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Cotton 5 - 9**: The spread was - 90, a month - on - month decrease of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to be oscillating and weakening, and it is recommended to go short on highs [59]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts was 3313, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts was 14119, a month - on - month increase of 404 and a year - on - year decrease of 10009. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts was 141442, a month - on - month increase of 948 and a year - on - year decrease of 197286. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts was 10243, a month - on - month increase of 34 and a year - on - year increase of 3530 [84]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned.
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年1月29日)-20260129
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 29, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, with specific data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][24][30][39][51]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - Basis data from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows that on January 28, the basis was - 111 yuan/ton, compared to - 116 yuan/ton in the previous few days [1][2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 22 to January 28, 2026, is provided, along with price ratios and basis values for INE crude oil [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations in basis values for each commodity [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [24]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [23]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [23]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows significant fluctuations [32]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 28, 2026, are provided [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows changes in basis values [39]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 22 to January 28, 2026, are provided [39]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 22 to January 28, 2026, shows fluctuations [51]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter spreads, are presented [51].
粕类日报:天气扰动增加,粕类继续偏强-20260128
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 14:30
Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Meal Daily Report" [1] - Date: January 28, 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F3045719 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0015458 [2] - Contact information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal: Futures prices in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao showed increases; spot basis decreased by 10 in different regions [3] - For rapeseed meal: Futures prices in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi showed increases; spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 4, while in Nantong it decreased by 26 [3] Monthly Spread - For soybean meal: 15 - spread decreased by 3, 59 - spread decreased by 8, 91 - spread increased by 11 [3] - For rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 15, 59 - spread increased by 10, 91 - spread increased by 5 [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread increased slightly, bean - rapeseed 09 spread increased, and oil - meal ratio 01 also increased slightly [3] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 6, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased by 30, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased by 6 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market was strong due to dry weather after a short - term decline; South American market quotes rose slightly; the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets were also strong; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed; the near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was strong [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean: Carry - over stocks were raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels; quarterly grain stocks were also bearish, reaching 3.29 billion bushels, higher than the market estimate of 3.25 billion bushels; exports improved, but the supply - demand was still relatively loose [4] - South American market: Brazil's new crop was in good condition; exports were expected to increase, but it was subject to actual yield changes; Argentina's soybean exports and crushing increased [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The domestic spot supply tightened; the oil mill operating rate increased but the overall quantity decreased; the inventory decreased; the market transaction increased; the demand was good; as of January 23, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1021 million tons, the operating rate was 57.83%, the soybean inventory was 6.5899 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from last week and an increase of 45.8% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, a decrease of 5.13% from last week and an increase of 104.55% year - on - year [7] - Rapeseed meal: The demand weakened; the oil mill operation basically stopped; the rapeseed supply was low; the granular rapeseed meal inventory was still high; as of January 23, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was 60,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [7] Group 6: Logic Analysis - US soybean: High inventory pressure and high South American production, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand [8] - Brazil: Good weather, increased production forecast, and price pressure [8] - Argentina: Strong due to dry weather, but the driving effect may be limited [8] - Domestic market: Uncertainty in soybean supply, support in the spot market, limited upside space; in the long - term, the supply is loose and there is price pressure [8] - Rapeseed meal: High import price, expected pressure after increased supply, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen, but the South American weather may support the price [8] - Spread: The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and that of rapeseed meal was strong [8] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Limited upside space, suggest short - term observation and short - selling at high points [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [9] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazil showed different changes in different shipping months, with some decreases and some increases [10]
两大金银主题LOF今起暂停相关申购业务!配置贵金属资产,还有哪些选择?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-28 05:17
SHMET 网讯:1月27日,易方达基金管理有限公司发布公告称,1月28日起暂停易方达黄金主题LOF A 类人民币份额申购及定期定额投资业务。 公告称,本次操作旨在帮助基金平稳运作,并明确赎回不受影响。同时,相关公告信息显示,该产品不 同份额此前已存在不同程度的申购与定投限制,市场端实际可新增的通道本就偏紧。 当日,国投瑞银基金管理有限公司也发布公告称,将于1月28日起暂停旗下国投白银LOF的A类与C类基 金的申购及定投业务。 相比之下,国投白银LOF的"降温动作"更密集。据期货日报记者统计,2025年12月1日至2026年1月28日 间,该基金已累计发布溢价风险提示36次、停牌公告25次,并3次调整申购额度。 事实上,近50%的风险溢价意味着场内基金价格已提前透支白银预期涨幅。景川认为,一旦国际银价回 调,溢价可能在一两个交易日内急剧收敛,此时场内价格可能"闪崩",引发踩踏、停牌和流动性枯竭, 甚至触发清盘风险。而暂停申购后,套利通道被彻底关闭,场内高溢价失去增量资金支撑,价格大概率 震荡回落,溢价缓慢收敛。在这样的情况下,套利者将转向"卖空场内份额+买入其他白银资产"的对冲 组合,或直接离场。 如果想配置 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年1月28日)-20260128
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 01:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 28, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 shows that the basis on January 21 was - 115 yuan/ton, and from January 22 - 27 it was - 116 yuan/ton [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Energy Commodities**: Basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of INE crude oil was - 11.28 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. For instance, on January 27, the basis of rubber was - 355 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 21 - 27, 2026 are shown. On January 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1948 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was - 740 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.97 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of copper was - 1180 yuan/ton [27]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 27, 2026 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (93.80) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 204 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was - 43 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 [35]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of CSI 300 was - 12.41 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 44.6 [47].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年1月27日)-20260127
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 27, 2026, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to offer data references for investors [1][5][20][26][35][47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The basis on January 26, 2026, was - 116 yuan/ton, consistent with January 23 and 22, and slightly different from January 21 (- 115 yuan/ton) and January 20 (- 112 yuan/ton). The 5 - 1 and 9 - 1, 9 - 5 inter - month spreads remained at zero during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratios**: For example, on January 26, 2026, the basis of fuel oil was - 4.21 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395. Different energy commodities had different basis and ratio values on different dates [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rubber, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 595 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 was - 670 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 was - 75 yuan/ton. Different chemical products had different inter - month spread values [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1977 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PP spread was 209 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [9]. - **Basis**: The basis of different chemical products such as rubber, methanol, etc., varied on different dates. For example, the basis of rubber on January 26, 2026, was - 280 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: For rebar, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 74 yuan/ton, the 9(10) - 1 was - 24 yuan/ton, and the 9(10) - 5 was 50 yuan/ton. Different black metal products had different inter - month spread values [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 3.98, and the rebar - hot - rolled coil spread was - 158 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal varied on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on January 26, 2026, was 147 yuan/ton [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market varied on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on January 26, 2026, was 220 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts, Shanghai - London Ratios, Import Profits and Losses**: On January 23, 2026, the LME premium/discount of copper was 66.06, the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.85, and the import loss was 638.66. Different non - ferrous metals had different values in these aspects [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn varied on different dates. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 26, 2026, was - 224 yuan/ton [35]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 inter - month spread was - 29 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 was - 3 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 5 was 26 yuan/ton. Different agricultural products had different inter - month spread values [35]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: On January 26, 2026, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.91, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 505 yuan/ton. These spreads changed on different dates [35]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 varied on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 26, 2026, was - 68.03 [47]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between the next - month and the current - month, and the next - quarter and the current - quarter contracts of different stock index futures varied. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus the current - month spread was - 12.4 [47].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年1月23日)-20260123
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 01:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 23, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][36][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from January 16 to January 22, 2026, shows a continuous decline from - 106 to - 116 yuan/ton. The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remain at 4.0, 0.0, 0.0 respectively during this period [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented, along with their price ratios and other data. For example, on January 22, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is - 1.74 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber is - 645 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are also given, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1953 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these chemical commodities from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is - 70 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are also provided, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.98 on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these black metals from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper is - 690 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 22, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (82.84) and the import profit/loss is (143.21) [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products and inter - variety spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are also provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 167 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of these stock index futures are also provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 is 21.95 on January 22, 2026 [48]