Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is on the brink of a significant reshuffle due to the introduction of the "Automotive Industry Pricing Behavior Compliance Guidelines," which aims to end the ongoing price war and establish clearer pricing regulations [5][10]. Group 1: Compliance Guidelines - The guidelines prohibit car manufacturers from selling vehicles below production costs and require clear pricing and delivery terms [8][16]. - Multiple car manufacturers, including BYD, Xpeng, and Changan, have expressed support for the guidelines, emphasizing the need to eliminate price fraud and unfair competition [11][13]. - The guidelines detail nine prohibited behaviors, including disguised price reductions and excessive discounts, which could lead to legal risks [16][18]. Group 2: Market Impact - The price war has severely impacted the industry's profit margins, with the overall profit rate for the automotive industry dropping to a historical low of 4.4% in 2025 [26][28]. - The average gross profit per vehicle in the automotive supply chain is only 14,000 yuan, and over 52.6% of automotive dealers are experiencing losses [28][29]. - The ongoing price war has led to a decline in consumer confidence, with a significant increase in the number of potential buyers delaying their purchases due to price fluctuations [32][34]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly associating vehicle prices with quality and features, with the percentage of buyers believing "you get what you pay for" rising from 13% in 2023 to 34% in 2025 [34]. - The expectation of continuous price reductions has led consumers to postpone purchases, as they believe waiting will yield better deals [35][36]. - The end of the price war is expected to lead to more rational competition in the automotive market, improving product safety and quality [36].

价格战终于要结束了？ 国家市场监督管理总局起草发布的一则《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》，可谓"重磅炸弹"在汽车圈炸开。 指南条例众多，明确了从整车到零配件生产、从定价策略到销售行为等各环节的价格合规要求。 但最惹人关注的，就是"明确禁止车企以低于成本的价格销售汽车"，同时强制要求明码标价、合同明确交付日期。 这些要求看似天经地义，但对汽车行业来说无异于指路明灯，难怪有网友吐槽——这下，发布会也没车企老大，抱怨卖一台车亏好几万了。 01 价格战真的要消停了 价格行为合规指南一经发布，已经有多家车企发文响应，像比亚迪、零跑、小鹏、长安、奇瑞、北汽、长城、江汽等超8家车企回应并且发文支持。 尽管各家车企的声明内容迥异，但核心观点都基本相似，都表示反对任何形式的价格欺诈与不正当竞争行为，决杜绝低于成本价倾销、虚假宣传等行为。 不难看出，车圈"苦价格战"久矣。 传递到终端市场，不免有用户担忧，随着2026年新能源汽车免购置税政策有所收缩，明年买车的终端优惠势必会有下降，再加上不允许打价格战，买车是 不是会更贵？ 先看看合规指南怎么说的。 针对主机厂的规定，主要分布在指南第十条，明确规定了除了清理库存外，车企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to face significant challenges in 2026, with predictions of stagnation or even negative growth due to the cessation of subsidies and changing consumer behavior [4][5][6]. Market Predictions - Experts predict a growth rate of around 4% for 2025, with a potential slowdown to 3.2% in 2026. However, many automotive executives foresee negative growth, with some estimating declines in the double digits [5]. - November sales data indicates a retail volume of 2.225 million vehicles, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year decline and a 1.1% month-on-month decrease, continuing a downward trend from October [6]. Impact of Subsidy Changes - The abrupt halt of subsidies, including local and national incentives, has significantly impacted consumer purchasing decisions, leading to a hold-off on vehicle purchases [8][9]. - In 2025, the cumulative benefits from various subsidies amounted to nearly 400 billion yuan, with over 10 million vehicles benefiting from trade-in subsidies [9]. Consumer Behavior - The cessation of subsidies has led to a "wait-and-see" attitude among potential buyers, with many choosing to delay purchases until more favorable conditions arise [10][13]. - Some consumers speculate that the removal of subsidies may lead to lower vehicle prices, as manufacturers may need to reduce prices to stimulate demand [14]. Competitive Landscape - The automotive industry is entering a more competitive phase, with a shift from subsidy-driven growth to a focus on profitability and product quality [16][17]. - Companies are expected to adopt strategies that prioritize production based on sales rather than maximizing output, which may lead to a more rational pricing environment [17]. Policy Outlook - Future policies are anticipated to focus on industry upgrades and targeted support for specific consumer groups, rather than broad subsidies [17]. - The market may see a consolidation of brands, with only those possessing strong technological capabilities and operational efficiency surviving the competitive landscape [17]. Conclusion - The automotive market in China is poised for a challenging year ahead, with uncertainties surrounding consumer behavior and policy changes potentially reshaping the industry dynamics [19].

"对2026年车市的研判是（和今年）持平。"11月6日国家信息中心正高级经济师徐长明在2025年中国汽 车流通协会论坛上这样总结。 中汽中心专家认为，2025年全年增长率在4%左右，2026年增速或放缓至3.2%。 专家们还算"乐观"，年尾沟通会上，不少车企老总给出的预测悲观的多：几乎全部认为负增长，有的甚 至给出了两位数负增长的判断。 蔚来董事长李斌直言：明年的中国车市，没有闪电战，只有消耗战，真正考验多维度粮草储备的时候到 了。 11月的终端销量提前预示了明年的光景。 乘联分会数据显示，11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降1.1%。继10月份同 比下降0.8%之后，终端继续下滑。 而补贴退坡可能引发的年底车市抢购热潮，也并没有及时出现，给2025年留一个好看的尾声。 你可以说这是政策的平稳过渡，也可以说，车市消费力已经早早透支干净了。 NO.1 [ 补贴一停，感情归零 ] 2026年的车市，可能比下周降温的北京还要冷。 9、10月份，2025年的"省补"（8000-15000元）、"国补"（15000-20000元）在全国范围内相继"突然"暂 停或者结束。 但由于现在很多新车 ...

Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a surge in sales due to increased promotional efforts and the impending expiration of tax exemption policies, with many companies achieving record sales in October [1] - GAC Aion, however, reported a decline in sales, contrasting with the overall industry trend, and faced significant financial losses in Q3 [1][2] Sales Performance - SAIC Passenger Cars saw a 234.4% increase in domestic market sales, while BYD's sales grew approximately 11.47%, both reaching new highs for the year [1] - GAC Aion's October sales were 27,014 units, a 7.2% decrease month-on-month and a 32.6% year-on-year decline [1] - GAC Group's Q3 revenue was 24.106 billion yuan, down 14.62% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.774 billion yuan, worsening from the previous year [1] Market Dynamics - GAC Aion's struggles are attributed to intense competition in the domestic automotive market and rapid changes in consumer demand [2] - The brand's reliance on the ride-hailing market has left it vulnerable as the market contracts, with a significant drop in ride-hailing orders reported [10] Sales Trends - GAC Aion's monthly sales have seen a dramatic decline from over 50,000 units in September 2023 to around 27,000 units by October 2025 [5][7] - The average monthly sales dropped from over 40,000 units in 2023 to approximately 30,000 units, and then to 20,000 units [5] Competitive Challenges - GAC Aion's pricing strategy has been less aggressive compared to competitors like BYD, which has affected its market position [10][11] - The brand's focus solely on pure electric vehicles limits its appeal in certain markets, particularly in northern regions where hybrid models are preferred [11] Strategic Adjustments - GAC Aion is attempting to shift its strategy towards private consumers, aiming for a 75% sales share in the C-end market by 2025, but current models have not met sales expectations [11] - The company is undergoing internal restructuring to improve cost management and marketing efficiency, with plans to integrate resources across its brands [12][15] Future Prospects - GAC Aion has launched new models like the Aion UT Super in collaboration with JD.com and CATL, aiming to enhance its market presence, although immediate sales impact is uncertain [18] - The company is facing challenges in adapting to market changes and improving its competitive edge amid a rapidly evolving automotive landscape [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a surge in sales due to increased promotional efforts and the impending expiration of tax exemption policies, with many companies achieving record sales in October. However, GAC Aion's performance stands out negatively, showing significant declines in both sales and financial results [1][2]. Sales Performance - SAIC Passenger Cars saw a substantial increase in domestic market sales by 234.4%, while BYD's sales grew approximately 11.47%, reaching a new high for the year. Geely's monthly sales exceeded 300,000 units for the first time, and Chery's new energy vehicle sales rose by 54.7% year-on-year, surpassing 110,000 units in a single month [1]. - GAC Aion's October sales were 27,014 units, reflecting a 7.2% decrease month-on-month and a 32.6% year-on-year decline, contrasting sharply with the overall industry growth [1][2]. Financial Results - GAC Group reported third-quarter revenue of 24.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.62%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.774 billion yuan, worsening from the previous year. For the first three quarters, revenue decreased by 10.49%, and net profit turned from a profit of 120 million yuan to a loss of 4.312 billion yuan, a staggering drop of 3693.3% [1][2]. Market Dynamics - GAC Aion's struggles are attributed to intense competition in the domestic automotive market and rapid changes in demand structure. The brand, once dominant in the ride-hailing market, is now facing unique challenges as the market evolves [2][6]. - The ride-hailing market saw a significant slowdown, with GAC Aion's share of new ride-hailing vehicles dropping as the overall market contracted. In 2023, GAC Aion accounted for 220,000 of the 850,000 new ride-hailing vehicles, representing 45% of its total sales for the year [6]. Product Strategy and Challenges - GAC Aion's sales have halved over two years, with average monthly sales dropping from over 40,000 units in 2023 to 20,000 units in 2025. The brand's reliance on pure electric vehicles limits its competitiveness, especially in northern markets where hybrid models are preferred [3][7]. - Despite launching new models aimed at private consumers, such as Aion Bawanglong, Aion RT, and Aion UT, these vehicles have not met sales expectations, with monthly sales remaining between 3,000 and 6,000 units [8][12]. Organizational Changes and Future Outlook - GAC Group is undergoing internal reforms to enhance efficiency, including the integration of marketing resources across brands. However, the pace of these reforms has been slow, leading to challenges in decision-making and execution [11][12]. - The introduction of a new brand focused on B-end markets (ride-hailing and taxis) is planned, but has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, GAC Aion has partnered with JD.com and CATL to launch the Aion UT Super, which has generated significant market interest despite potential infrastructure limitations [13][15].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The real estate market in China has been adjusting since 2022, with a continued decline in housing prices into 2025. As of September, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter, down 7.38% year-on-year, marking 41 consecutive months of month-on-month price declines [4] - Starting from October 2025, significant changes are expected in the real estate market, including a slowdown in price declines in cities that previously experienced larger drops, and potential price corrections in first-tier cities [4][5] - The government plans to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with a target of providing 6 million units over the next five years, which will likely divert demand from the commercial housing market and increase downward pressure on prices [5] Group 2: Automotive Market Dynamics - A price war has begun in the automotive market, with numerous brands participating. Mid-range domestic cars have seen price reductions of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, while high-end imported vehicles have dropped by up to 90,000 yuan [7] - The second-hand car market is also experiencing significant price drops, with some models losing 70,000 yuan in value over just over a year [7] - Factors contributing to the ongoing price war include the influx of new energy vehicles, a slowdown in middle-class income growth leading to reduced demand, and the rapid turnover of car models [7] Group 3: Stability of Currency Purchasing Power - Despite concerns about the weakening purchasing power of currency due to excessive money supply, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable in September, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4%, indicating a deflationary cycle in the economy [10] - The stability in purchasing power is attributed to the fact that the excess money supply is not circulating into the economy, leading to weak price increases in the goods market [10] - Additionally, the slowdown in household income growth has weakened consumer purchasing power, prompting businesses to reduce prices to clear inventory and attract buyers [10]

Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a seasonal sales peak during the "Golden September and Silver October," but the used car market shows signs of recovery while facing structural pressures of "increased volume and decreased prices" [1] Group 1: New Car Pricing and Promotions - Significant discounts are being offered on new cars, with some models being sold at 60% off their original prices, such as the BMW 2 Series and BMW X2 [2] - The aggressive pricing strategies are impacting the used car market, leading to a substantial decline in the prices of previously high-value luxury cars [2] Group 2: Used Car Market Dynamics - The average inventory cycle for used cars has extended to 43 days, with 35.6% of businesses experiencing inventory cycles longer than 30 days, indicating increased operational pressure on dealers [3] - A high percentage of used car dealers, 73.6%, reported losses, primarily due to the ongoing price war in the new car market, which adversely affects used car sales and customer satisfaction [2][3] Group 3: Cost and Profitability Challenges - The cost of maintaining inventory is rising, with monthly parking fees for a used car reaching approximately 2500 yuan, necessitating a profit of at least 3000-4000 yuan per vehicle to achieve minimal profitability [4] - Online sales now account for over half of the sales volume for some dealers, but the cost of customer acquisition through online platforms has also increased significantly, with average acquisition costs reaching 6200 yuan [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Market Trends - Despite a strong sales performance for new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accounted for 36.7% of total vehicle sales, their representation in the used car market remains low at only 5.3% [5] - The rapid technological advancements in NEVs lead to quicker depreciation, making them less attractive in the used car market compared to gasoline vehicles [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - The used car market is projected to reach a transaction volume of approximately 20.5 million units for the year, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to remain between 4% and 5% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak sales season for the automotive industry, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has seen a significant reduction in promotional efforts this year, with discounts primarily ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, compared to previous years where discounts were more substantial [1][3][9]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Seven automotive brands have announced National Day promotional policies, including Li Auto, Xpeng Motors, GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota, FAW Audi, and SAIC Volkswagen, with promotions mainly consisting of cash subsidies and trade-in incentives [3][5]. - The maximum discount offered by GAC Toyota is 51,000 yuan, but the actual additional discount for consumers is only about 3,000 yuan due to existing promotions [6]. - Li Auto is providing a significant promotion with a trade-in subsidy of 15,000 yuan and a limited-time financial rate of 1.99% [8]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, leading to car prices being at a low point, which limits the potential for further discounts during the National Day period [9][10]. - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicates that the profit margin for the automotive industry has been declining, with an average profit margin of 4.5% for the first eight months of the year [9][11]. - A report from the China Automobile Dealers Association reveals that only 30.3% of dealers met their sales targets in the first half of the year, with 52.6% reporting losses [11][13]. Group 3: Dealer Perspectives - Dealers are reluctant to offer significant discounts during the National Day promotions, as many are already selling at a loss and rely on manufacturer rebates [10][11]. - Dealers are expected to allocate more promotional funds towards year-end sales rather than during the National Day period, anticipating greater promotional efforts later in the year [10][11].

Core Insights - The second-hand car industry in China is facing significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a rising loss ratio among dealers reaching 73.6% [3] - The average inventory cycle for second-hand cars has extended to 43 days, indicating increased operational pressure on dealers [3] - The average customer acquisition cost for second-hand car platforms has surged to 6200 yuan, while the average profit per transaction is only around 1500 yuan [3] Industry Overview - The second-hand car market saw a transaction volume of 9.57 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, with a total transaction value of 623.24 billion yuan [4] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars dropped from 61,180 yuan in 2024 to 53,673 yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.3% [4] - The overall transaction volume for second-hand cars in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 20.5 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to be between 4% and 5% [4] Electric Vehicle Segment - In the first half of 2025, electric vehicles accounted for 36.7% of total vehicle sales in China, but only 5.3% of second-hand car transactions, indicating a significant gap compared to new car sales [4] - The low resale value of electric vehicles, with a three-year depreciation rate of only 43% compared to 62% for fuel vehicles, contributes to their underrepresentation in the second-hand market [5] - Despite the challenges, the transaction volume of second-hand electric vehicles grew by 35.5% year-on-year, totaling 687,000 units [5] Dealer Challenges - New car dealers are also experiencing severe losses, with 52.6% reporting operational losses in the first half of 2025, and only 29.9% achieving profitability [5]