数据不会说谎：美国原油报60.73美元/桶，布伦特原油报64.67美元/桶，单日涨幅虽小，却像暗流般牵 动全局。而黄金市场因美联储降息预期升温而狂欢，反倒衬托出油价的脆弱——它从来不只是商品，更 是经济脉搏的缩影。想想看，油价跌了，通勤成本降了，可这种"便宜"能持续多久？当全球局势诡谲多 变，我们是该趁低囤油，还是学会与波动共舞？ | 时间 | ITI | 布伦特 | 原油变化率 | 预期调整幅度 | 天数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11月11日 | 60.13 | 64. 06 | -0.55% | 预计下跌30元/吨 | 1 | | 11月12日 | 60.73 | 64.67 | -0.28% | 预计下跌15元/吨 | 2 | 结尾处，我不禁想问：这轮下跌是真反弹的前奏，还是暴风雨前的宁静？如果油价长期低迷，会是普通 人的福音，还是经济放缓的预警？答案，或许就藏在下一个加油站的计价器里。我的封神名场面 回想过去一周，国际油价走势就像一部悬疑剧，涨少跌多成了主旋律。正是这股力量，让国内油价在11 月11日上涨后，迅速调转车头。新一轮调整刚一开局， ...

Core Viewpoint - The residual oil market is experiencing downward pressure due to ample supply and insufficient downstream demand, leading to a bearish market sentiment [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of November 11, low-sulfur residual oil prices in Shandong are at 3950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous Tuesday, a decline of 1.74% [1] - Medium-sulfur residual oil prices are at 3785 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous Tuesday, a decline of 1.68% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current supply of residual oil is relatively abundant, and the profitability of coking units has improved only marginally [1] - Downstream demand growth is insufficient, leading to a slowdown in procurement speed and contributing to the downward pressure on residual oil prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Zhaochuang Information, the sustainability of oil price increases may be limited, with expectations of a price correction and no positive factors supporting the cost side in the short term [1] - The diesel market, a major downstream product, is relatively stable in the short term, but long-term pressures remain [1] - The improvement in downstream demand for residual oil is expected to be limited, with prices likely to continue weak adjustments, although the extent of these adjustments may narrow [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC (00883) rose by 3.66% to HKD 23.2, reaching a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) increased by 2.49% to HKD 9.04 [1] - Sinopec (00386) gained 2.28% to HKD 4.49 [1] - CNOOC Services (601808) (02883) saw a rise of 0.88% to HKD 8.03 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military's largest aircraft carrier strike group has entered the Caribbean, while Venezuela is conducting new military exercises [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical risks in South America may rise in the next 1-2 weeks, despite Trump's indecision on military action against Venezuela [1] Group 3: OPEC+ and Oil Price Outlook - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases may improve supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities forecasts that OPEC+ will announce multiple production increases in 2025, which could suppress oil prices due to expected supply increments and Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" impacting global demand [1] - The average Brent/WTI oil prices for Q3 2025 are projected to be USD 68.17/barrel and USD 64.96/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] Group 4: Company Performance and Outlook - Leading upstream oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases, production enhancements, and cost reductions [1] - If terminal consumption demand improves further, these leading state-owned enterprises may achieve performance recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks continue to rise, with CNOOC reaching a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production decisions [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC (00883) increased by 3.66%, reaching 23.2 HKD, a new historical high [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 2.49%, priced at 9.04 HKD [1] - Sinopec (00386) saw a 2.28% increase, trading at 4.49 HKD [1] - CNOOC Services (02883) gained 0.88%, with a price of 8.03 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The entry of the largest U.S. aircraft carrier strike group into the Caribbean and military exercises in Venezuela contribute to rising geopolitical risks [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that geopolitical tensions may support oil prices despite Trump's indecision on military action in Venezuela [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that OPEC+ halting production increases improves supply-demand balance, potentially supporting oil prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guolian Minsheng Securities predicts that OPEC+ will restore production multiple times in 2025, which may suppress oil prices due to increased supply expectations [1] - The forecast for Brent and WTI average prices in Q3 2025 is 68.17 USD/barrel and 64.96 USD/barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 13.40% and 13.78% respectively [1] - Leading oil and gas state-owned enterprises are expected to mitigate the pressure on oil prices through continuous reserve increases and cost reductions, with potential performance recovery if terminal demand improves [1]

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油零售价迎来今年第七次上调。据国家发展改革委网站消息，近期国际 市场油价波动运行，自11月10日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上涨125元和120 元，折合92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升均上调0.1元。 库存方面，上周美国商业原油库存增幅超预期，但汽油去库幅度较大，显示汽油需求强劲。杜冰沁认 为，近期油品市场呈现成品油强于原油的结构，短期油价或延续震荡走势。 光大期货能源化工分析师杜冰沁表示，近期油价整体呈区间震荡。从供给端看，欧佩克+在最新会议上 决定将12月产量目标上调13.7万桶/日，延续10月和11月的渐进式增产模式，同时宣布2026年1月至3月暂 停增产。最新产量数据显示，欧佩克10月原油产量2843万桶/日，较9月增加3万桶/日，增速放缓。其 中，俄罗斯上月平均产量941.1万桶/日，较9月增加4.3万桶/日。 卓创资讯成品油分析师戴田东表示，未来市场将关注美国石油需求淡季之后的原油累库情况，同时，南 美局势可控，宏观因素主导作用降低，预计下周期国际油价或延续窄幅波动行情。按照当前原油价格测 算，新周期内原油变化率或呈负值开局，对应下调幅度或在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is expected to result in the seventh price increase of the year, leading to a slight increase in consumer fuel costs [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - The new price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 10, with analysts predicting an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel by approximately 135 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.11 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1]. - As of November 6, the reference crude oil price change rate was recorded at 3.12%, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the upcoming adjustment [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, there have been 21 rounds of price adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 745 yuan per ton for gasoline and 715 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts from various firms indicate that the current oil prices are in a narrow fluctuation range, with signs of potential weakening. The market is expected to face oversupply pressure in the near term [4]. - Supply-side factors include OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of next year, while the overall atmosphere of increased production is expected to persist until the end of December this year [4]. - On the demand side, the seasonal decrease in crude oil demand due to ongoing maintenance at U.S. refineries and a notable increase in U.S. crude oil inventories contribute to a sluggish global demand recovery [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - European energy companies outperformed expectations in Q3, driven by strong refining margins that offset weak oil prices, despite an unclear outlook for 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - The MSCI Europe Energy Index saw a 2.7% increase in earnings per share in Q3, contrasting with a market expectation of a 6.8% decline [1]. - Major oil companies like Shell, BP, and Eni were key contributors to the earnings surprise in the MSCI Europe Energy Index [3]. - BP's Q3 profits exceeded expectations, boosting investor confidence in its business recovery [3]. - Shell's profits and free cash flow also surpassed expectations, driven by strong natural gas trading and improved refining margins [3]. - Repsol is entering Q4 with positive momentum from its refining business, which helps mitigate macroeconomic headwinds and weak benchmark oil prices [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Other European companies like Galp Energia, Total, and OMV achieved solid profits due to their refining business advantages [4]. - Analysts believe the market has not fully recognized the current strength of refining margins [4]. - The optimistic outlook from major oil companies has reassured investors, with expectations for continued stock buybacks and dividends [4]. - Shell's strategy to increase investments in oil and gas while cautiously expanding renewable energy is seen as prudent and beneficial for mid-term earnings and shareholder returns [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The oil and gas industry remains susceptible to further oil price fluctuations, with a projected oil price of around $68 per barrel for 2026 [7]. - A drop in oil prices to $60 could lead to a 20% reduction in earnings per share across the sector [7]. - The current strong refining margins may not be sustainable, as they are expected to normalize [7]. - Despite the robust performance in Q3, the earnings of the five major oil giants are still less than half of their 2022 levels, indicating a long recovery path for the industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks have seen significant gains, with major companies experiencing increases of over 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively, indicating a positive market sentiment despite underlying concerns about demand and supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major oil stocks such as甲國海洋石流 (00883) rose by 4.06%, with a market capitalization of 1.05 trillion and a trading volume of 2.212 billion [2]. - 中國石油股份 (00857) increased by 2.82%, with a market cap of 1.6 trillion and a trading volume of 1.079 billion [2]. - 中國石油化工股份 (00386) saw a rise of 2.33%, with a market cap of 531.97 billion and a trading volume of 570 million [2]. Group 2: OPEC+ and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day starting December, while also pausing production increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonal factors [1][3]. - The market sentiment has improved following the announcement, but concerns about weak demand and oversupply persist, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [1][3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses from Major Oil Companies - The "Three Major Oil Companies" (中國石油, 中國石化, 中海油) are focusing on increasing reserves and production while enhancing cost control to navigate external uncertainties [3]. - Production plans for 2025 indicate growth in oil and gas equivalent output: 1.6% for 中國石油, 1.5% for 中國石化, and 5.9% for 中海油 [3]. - The companies are transitioning their refining businesses to low-cost oil conversion and high-value oil products, aiming to become comprehensive energy service providers [3].

11月10日消息，石油股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，涨超4%，涨近3%， 涨超2%。 消息面上，11月2日，OPEC+主产八国宣布12月将进一步增产13.7万桶/日，同时由于季节性因素暂停2026 年1至3月的增产。此外，美国对俄两大石油生产商实施制裁后。民生证券指出，由于OPEC+于26年一季度 暂停增产超市场预期，叠加美国对俄罗斯的制裁影响，当前市场悲观情绪好转，但对需求较弱、供应过剩 的情绪仍在，预计油价短期依然以震荡为主线。 | 代碼 | 名稱 | 最新價 | 漲跌幅 ◆ | 成交額 | 總市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 甲國海洋石流 | 22.040 | +4.06% | 22.12億 | 1.05萬億 | | 00857 | 中國石油股份 | 8.750 | +2.82% | 10.79億 | 1.6萬億 | | 00386 | 中國石油化工股份 | 4.390 | +2.33% | 5.7億 | 5319.7億 | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股份 | 1.360 | +1.49% | 883.66萬 | 143.38億 ...

这轮油价的波动，背后折射出的更是普通民众生活的辛酸。一位出租车司机老王无奈地表示："上半年油价飙到8块多，我一天光油钱就得多花30块，等于白 跑了两趟。现在好不容易降下来点，又要涨，平台抽成还不减，这生意怎么做？"数据显示，对于网约车司机而言，油费支出在其收入中占比超过三成，每 一次油价的调整都如同"割肉"。普通家庭也并非置身事外，蔬菜的运输成本、快递的运费，最终都会与油价联动，羊毛出在羊身上，消费者承担了最终的代 价。难怪有网友调侃，油价涨一毛，白菜可能就要涨一块，这简直就是"隐形税"。 尽管怨声载道，但我们仍需理性看待油价的波动。其本质是市场规律的体现，是全球供需博弈的结果。我们不能仅仅盯着短期的涨跌，而应学会"踩点加 油"。例如，在调价窗口关闭前的晚上，加油站往往会排起长队，聪明的车主会选择提前储油。此外，新能源汽车的普及率正逐年攀升，今年电动汽车销量 占比已超过30%，这无疑为长期应对油费压力提供了新的可能。然而，能源结构的转型需要时间，在燃油车仍是主流的当下，政策制定者更应倾听民生诉 求，避免"油贵如水，车贱如泥"的现象寒了人心。 这场看似只是数字跳动的油价"倒计时"，实际上是一面放大镜，映照出民生 ...