证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：春节消费信号积极，关注啤酒接力修复 投资建议：1、白酒：春节旺季动销平稳改善、结构分化、集中度提升， "茅五"批价淡季表现坚挺、关注后续报表出清节奏，当下白酒仍处于低 配状态，建议把握配置机遇，建议配置：1）短期春节刚需及弹性标的： 贵州茅台、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、泸州老窖、金徽酒等；2）中长期龙头： 五粮液、山西汾酒、今世缘等。2、大众品：春节出行消费两旺，26 年复 苏信号积极，重点推荐啤酒板块，接力大餐饮链修复，优先关注成长机会、 后续切换复苏：1）成长主线布局零食、饮料及α个股：鸣鸣很忙、万辰 集团、卫龙美味、盐津铺子、西麦食品、有友食品、东鹏饮料、农夫山泉、 安琪酵母、泉阳泉、H&H 国际控股；2）复苏主线大餐饮链、乳制品等β 弱修复可期：安井食品、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、华润啤酒、巴比食品、宝 立食品、立高食品、新乳业、伊利股份、仙乐健康等。 白酒：春节复苏奠定全年基础，行业有望渐进改善。近日珍酒李渡披露业 绩预告，预计 2025 年营收 35.5-37 亿元、同比下滑 47.7%-49.8%，经调 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 开年以来的两个变化 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 海外：IEEPA 关税失效，但不宜过度乐观。在春节假期期间，海外发生的 重要变化之一在于美国最高法院判定 IEEPA 相关一揽子关税无效。从特 朗普政府的执政逻辑来看，我们认为，特朗普政府放弃关税这一核心政策 工具的 ...

如果你是一位港股投资者，今年的账户表现可能会让你怀疑人生。 第二个驱动力：大宗商品价格持续上行，能源原材料板块业绩直接兑现。 打开账户一看，有的人赚得盆满钵满，有的人亏得怀疑人生。这不是运气问题，而是你有没有站对队的 问题。 来看一组数据：截至2026年2月底，恒生综合行业指数呈现出罕见的极致分化。原材料业暴涨23.62%， 地产建筑业大涨20.02%，能源业涨18.8%，工业涨15.87%。而另一边，信息科技业大跌9.74%，电讯业 跌2.39%，非必需性消费微跌0.65%。 首尾相差超过33个百分点。这意味着，如果你年初买的是原材料，现在已经赚了将近四分之一；如果你 买的是科技股，可能已经亏了十个点。冰火两重天，不过如此。 那么，究竟是什么原因导致了如此剧烈的分化？ 说白了，市场的定价逻辑正在发生根本性转变——从"讲故事"转向"看业绩"，从"成长叙事"转向"政策 确定性"。 第一个驱动力：稳增长政策超预期发力，地产链风险基本解除。 这是本轮分化最核心的政策逻辑。2025年底中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"后，2026年开 年政策密集落地：商业用房首付比例从50%直接降到30%，二手房增值税减免， ...

铝期货方面：2026-02-26日沪铝主力合约开于23845元/吨，收于23845元/吨，较上一交易日变化145元/吨，最 高价达24000元/吨，最低价达到23710元/吨。全天交易日成交266795手，全天交易日持仓252168手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存115.7万吨，较上一期变化4.9万吨，仓单库存 288287吨，较上一交易日变化3112吨，LME铝库存467550吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-26SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2570元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元/吨，广西价格录得2675元/吨，贵州价格录得2745元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得311美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2026-02-26氧化铝主力合约开于2879元/吨，收于2820元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-32 元/吨，变化幅度-1.12%，最高价达到2890元/吨，最低价为2807元/吨。全天交易日成交448156手，全天交易日 持仓340118手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-27 氧化铝仓单压力依旧难解 ...

Industry Overview - The Chinese medicine industry is entering a new evidence-driven cycle following the release of the Basic Drug Directory Management Measures, which emphasizes the integration of clinical value, insurance payment capabilities, and tiered diagnosis and treatment systems [8][10] - The market performance of the Chinese medicine sector showed a decline of 1.75% in the week before the holiday, which was the largest drop among the pharmaceutical sub-sectors [3][4] Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's PE (ttm) was 27X, down 0.49X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) was 2.27X, down 0.04X, indicating a relative valuation position within historical ranges [5] - The overall pharmaceutical sector index closed at 8282.27 points, down 0.81%, with only the medical services sector showing an increase of 0.22% [3] Upstream Market Dynamics - The market demand for Chinese medicinal materials has increased ahead of the holiday, leading to a slight rise in the price index, which reached 229.02 points, up 0.1% from the previous week [6][7] Regulatory Changes - The revised Basic Drug Directory Management Measures highlight a "balanced approach to Chinese and Western medicine," establishing a strict negative list for market entry and emphasizing clinical value and dynamic adjustments [9] - The new measures are expected to accelerate structural differentiation in the short term and favor leading companies with clinical evidence and strong innovation capabilities in the long term [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [11] - Price governance will lead to clearer differentiation within the industry, with companies that have competitive advantages likely to benefit from price-volume trade-offs [12] - The recovery of consumption driven by macroeconomic improvement and increased health awareness among the aging population is expected to boost sales of consumer-oriented Chinese medicines [13] - State-owned enterprises in the Chinese medicine sector are anticipated to benefit from reforms aimed at improving efficiency and performance [13] Target Companies - Recommended companies include Zoli Pharmaceutical and Yiling Pharmaceutical, with a focus on those with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by centralized procurement [13]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a narrow consolidation, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) declining by 0.52% and a total trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, while net inflows over the past 60 days have surpassed 2.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai government has introduced new real estate policies, reducing the social security requirement for non-local residents to purchase homes within the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, and allowing families with a residence permit for 5 years to buy one property without social security [3] - During the recent Spring Festival, there were reports of shortages of premium liquor, with some distributors indicating that they could not meet demand, leading to an increase in prices instead of the usual post-holiday decline [3] Group 2 - The Spring Festival has seen a significant recovery in restaurant consumption, with key retail and restaurant enterprises reporting a daily sales increase of 5.7% year-on-year, and foot traffic in 78 key pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% [5] - The demand for dining experiences during the holiday surged, with Meituan's New Year's Eve dinner reservations increasing by 105% and Douyin's group purchases rising by 185%, indicating strong consumer vitality [5] - The frozen food and seasoning sectors are benefiting from the recovery in restaurant consumption, with B-end product sales increasing due to the resurgence of dining scenes during the Spring Festival [6] Group 3 - The overall consumption trend during the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, showing a division between material and service consumption, with emotional consumption demonstrating resilience [7] - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its essential and domestic demand attributes, showing significant profitability resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of the index [8] - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see improvements in inventory and sales, driven by the strong performance of downstream dining consumption, which is likely to enhance the profitability of leading companies in the sector [6][7]

该行看好出现初步复苏、涉及中国结构性消费增长动力、获潜在政策支持及存在海外增长机遇的行业， 包括餐饮、服务及体验式消费等，首选安踏体育(02020)、华润啤酒(00291)、中国中免(601888.SH)、海 底捞(06862)、美的集团(000333.SZ)及百胜中国(09987)，全数给予"买入"评级，并对国内消费行业维 持"增持"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，相较去年两个黄金周表现，今年新春长假(2月15日至23日)期 间消费数据反映国内消费市场增长动能向好，认为可视作消费市道整体出现复苏的初步迹象，其中旅游 文化及餐饮表现备受关注。 基于新春长假期间消费及出行数据，大华继显调整部分股份的目标价，将海底捞的目标价上调至19.7港 元，李宁(02331)上调至21.6港元，贵州茅台(600519.SH)目标价上调至1,682元人民币，五粮液 (000858.SZ)目标价轻微调升至115.1元人民币。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic consumption market in China is showing signs of recovery, particularly during the Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, with notable performance in tourism, culture, and dining sectors [1] - The company is optimistic about industries that are experiencing initial recovery, driven by structural consumption growth, potential policy support, and overseas growth opportunities, including dining, services, and experiential consumption [1] - The company has assigned a "buy" rating to several stocks, including Anta Sports (02020), China Resources Beer (00291), China Duty Free Group (601888.SH), Haidilao (06862), Midea Group (000333.SZ), and Yum China (09987), while maintaining an "overweight" rating for the domestic consumption sector [1] Group 2 - Based on consumption and travel data during the Spring Festival holiday, the company has adjusted target prices for certain stocks, raising Haidilao's target price to HKD 19.7, Li Ning (02331) to HKD 21.6, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) to RMB 1,682, and Wuliangye (000858.SZ) to RMB 115.1 [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 公开数据显示，春节消费表现亮眼。2026年9天春节假期，国内出游5.96亿人次、旅游总花费8034.83亿 元，均创历史新高；全社会跨区域人员流动量超28亿人次，日均3.11亿人次，同比增长8.2%。服务消 费、新消费龙头表现突出，消费复苏斜率向上。 截至收盘，中证消费50指数上涨0.4%，中证港股通消费主题指数上涨0.1%。相关ETF受资金关注， Wind数据显示，截至昨日，港股通消费ETF易方达（513070）已连续9个交易日"吸金"，合计超12亿 元。 ...

2026年春节假期为2月17–23日，是史上最长春节假期。延长至9天的长假显著提振了餐饮、旅游等对客 流高度敏感的消费场景。该行将本次春节视为观察消费修复内生动力，以及研判全国"两会"前后政策取 向的重要窗口。在宏观环境偏弱的背景下，政策支持务实且前置落地，各地政府在春节前累计发放逾 20.5亿元消费券及补贴，有效托底需求。官方数据显示，本次春节消费表现好于预期。商务部数据显 示，重点零售和餐饮企业销售额在可比口径下同比增长5.7%，较2025年春节和中秋"黄金周"分别4.1% 和2.7%的增速明显加快。在监测的78个重点商圈中，客流量和销售额同比分别增长6.7%和7.5%。整体 来看，本次春节数据为全年消费复苏奠定了相对稳固的起点。 节日聚会需求带动餐饮收入 智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，服务型与体验型消费的修复明显快于传统商品零售。展望后 续，消费修复仍呈现结构性与不均衡特征，部分传统零售细分领域或面临库存与价格压力。政策层面， 预计决策层将延续春节期间形成的积极势头，在全国"两会"前后进一步推出更有针对性的、渐进式宽松 举措，以稳预期、托底需求。在此背景下，盈利可见性和基本面韧性显得更为重要。 ...