华泰证券指出，白酒行业国庆+中秋双节延续调整趋势，双节整体仍有承压，行业延续分化，龙头相对 表现稳定，动销端看行业同比仍呈现下滑趋势，部分区域环比略有改善。分场景看，大众宴席场景有所 修复，政商务消费仍有所承压，礼赠消费有所减少。分价格带看，高端酒旺季需求弱复苏，大众价位动 销表现行业领先，次高端价位仍有一定承压且分化显著；当前行业库存企稳，部分酒企边际去化库存， 释放经营压力。展望来看，本轮调整中头部酒企均以长期健康发展为主，基本面探底企稳，叠加促销费 政策托底，行业或逐步步入良性修复阶段，建议底部布局强基本面龙头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in the fourth quarter, supported by favorable external conditions from overseas markets and resilient domestic consumption data during the recent holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Overseas Market Influence - The overall performance of overseas markets during the holiday has boosted investor sentiment in the A-share market, with private equity firms noting a positive emotional momentum [2]. - Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical developments, and record-high gold prices are seen as having a generally positive impact on the A-share market [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The recent Golden Week holiday showcased strong consumer resilience, with impressive travel and consumption data, which adds warmth to the economic fundamentals [1][2]. - The stable release of domestic policies and economic data around the holiday is expected to lack major variables that could significantly impact the market [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced approach to stock selection, emphasizing the importance of both aggressive and defensive strategies [4]. - Some firms are increasing their positions and optimizing their portfolios, anticipating a recovery in market sentiment post-holiday [4][5]. Group 4: Focus on Technology and Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector remains a focal point for many private equity firms, with expectations for significant opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing [5][6]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are anticipated to present opportunities for stocks that performed well [5][6]. Group 5: Market Trends and Opportunities - The market is expected to maintain its focus on key themes such as the internet, domestic semiconductor industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]. - There is a belief that both technology growth and value stocks will perform well, with potential for revaluation in consumer and cyclical sectors [6][7].

国庆假期余额已不足，但全球资本、金融市场的精彩大戏还尚未落幕。 在这个为期8天的超长假期里，全球市场悄然完成了新一轮洗牌。美国联邦政府停摆、日本股市领 涨、黄金价格突破历史新高——众多重磅事件密集上演，让投资者们眼花缭乱。如何把握节后市场 脉搏？答案就藏在这幅国庆财经大事件全景图里。 01 日股领涨，港股先涨后跌 从全球重要股指来看，日韩股市呈领涨之势。其中日经225指数在10月6日首次突破 48000点 大关， 创下历史新高，成为全球表现最好的主要股指，这一表现主要与日本执政党自由民主党选举出高市 早苗担任新总裁有关。 亚洲其他市场表现同样亮眼，韩国综合指数上涨3.6%。亚太其他市场方面，澳洲标普200指数上涨 1.12%。 港股在长假期间累计交易4日。恒生指数在假期期间呈现先扬后抑态势，10月2日大幅上涨，随后几 个交易日涨幅有所回落，截至8日收盘累计下跌1.15%，报26829.46点。 欧洲方面，德国DAX指数上涨2.11%，英国富时100指数上涨1.42%，法国CAC40指数1.0%。 03 现货黄金突破4000美元 国庆假期，美国联邦政府停摆事件促使 避险资金涌入黄金市场 ，受此影响，COMEX黄 ...

2025年10月08日 证券研究报告 | 2025年四季度食品饮料行业投资策略 底部蓄能，强者恒强 行业研究 · 行业专题 食品饮料 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 证券分析师：柴苏苏 证券分析师：张未艾 联系人：王新雨 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 021-60933124 021-61761064 021-61761031 021-60875135 S0980523090001 yangyuan4@guosen.com.cn chaisusu@guosen.com.cn zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn S0980523090003 S0980524080003 S0980525070005 n 市场回顾：受内需和消费者信心不足影响，今年以来食品饮料板块跑输指数，A股和H股累计上涨1%，其中，A股食品饮料（申万）下跌 4.7%，明显跑输沪深300（+17.9%）；H股食品饮料（申万）上涨29.5%，跑输恒生指数（+34%）。 ü 品类分化，强者恒强。二季度以来酒类受政策影响，股价持 ...

Industry Overview - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year. Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 35,575 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.7% [2] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323,906 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 292,643 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.1% [2] - By consumption type, in August, the retail sales of goods were 35,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while catering revenue was 4,496 billion yuan, increasing by 2.1% [2] E-commerce and Online Retail - From January to August, the online retail sales reached 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%. Among this, the physical goods online retail sales were 80,964 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of total retail sales [3] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 15.0%, 2.4%, and 5.7% respectively [3] Consumer Trends - The consumer market in China is showing a moderate recovery, with a clear structural characteristic in consumption growth. Online channels are significantly driving this growth, and service consumption remains active [3] - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a shift towards functional skincare, domestic brands, and premium products, with leading brands achieving high growth despite market challenges [4] Investment Opportunities - Recent additions to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list include several retail and light manufacturing stocks, which may see increased liquidity and trading opportunities [5] - The beauty care industry is witnessing a shift towards rational consumption, with consumers focusing more on product quality and cost-effectiveness, benefiting domestic brands [5] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost the tourism retail sector, with a focus on online travel platforms, theme parks, and chain hotels [6] Recommendations - Maintain an "overweight" rating on the retail industry, with a focus on newly added Hong Kong stocks in the retail sector and domestic beauty brands during the Double Eleven pre-sale period [6]

Market Performance Analysis - The market is experiencing a short-term overheating phase driven by increased trading activity after reaching new highs, with a recommendation for cautious investment strategies [1][4] - Historical data shows that the market typically performs poorly in the days leading up to the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday, while the first phase after the holiday shows a strong median return of 2.27% [1][2] Index and Style Performance - Major indices showed weak performance before the holiday, with only the ChiNext Index recording a positive return of 0.34%, while small-cap indices faced the largest declines [2] - Post-holiday, all major indices experienced positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading in the first phase, followed by a general pullback in the second phase, and a resurgence of small-cap stocks in the third phase [2] - In terms of style indices, only the consumer sector recorded a positive return before the holiday, while all styles saw gains afterward, particularly growth and financial sectors [2] Industrial Profit Trends - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase in August, with cumulative profits turning positive, indicating a recovery in the industrial sector [3] - The profit margins in mining, manufacturing, and public utilities showed slight increases compared to the previous month, reflecting a positive trend in industrial profitability [3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment focus should be on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks [4] - The core factor for investing in the consumer sector is valuation, with current low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy support indicating a potential recovery phase, albeit weak [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The retail sector experienced a 4.32% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.39 percentage points [4][9] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 40.68X, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week, with a one-year range of 27.98X to 43.58X [5][17] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from online channels and service consumption [6][20] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's index closed at 2,384.72 points, ranking 29th among Shenwan's primary industries [4][9] - The sector's absolute return over the past 12 months is 38.0%, while the relative return is 9.7% [3] Industry Valuation - The current Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 1.96X, with a one-year range of 1.36X to 2.1X [5][18] Industry Dynamics - In August, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4%, with a total of 39,668 billion yuan, and online retail sales increased by 9.6% [6][20] - The beauty and personal care segment showed a mild recovery, with retail sales reaching 34.9 billion yuan in August, up 5.1% year-on-year [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end domestic beauty brands and tourism-related retail sectors as potential investment opportunities [7][24] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost sales for domestic beauty brands, particularly high-end products [24][25]

专题：第二届新浪财经金麒麟最佳投资顾问评选 新浪财经主办、银华基金独家合作的"第二届金麒麟最佳投资顾问评选"活动火热进行中！我国财富管理 行业迈入超级大年，随着居民理财意识逐渐升华，中国财富管理行业已经迎来高增长周期，投资顾问作 为财富管理"最后一公里"的引路人，其触达客户、沟通客户、服务客户的属性直接影响着全民资产配置 的走向。在此背景下，投资顾问面临哪些机遇和挑战？他们该如何"修炼内功"？金麒麟最佳投资顾问评 选活动旨在为投资顾问提供一个展示形象、扩围服务、提升能力的舞台，为优秀投资顾问与大众投资人 搭建沟通对话的桥梁，助推中国财富管理行业健康发展。 针对投资顾问的优异表现，新浪财经将从投顾服务理念、财富管理大时代下投顾挑战等方面，采访表现 优秀投顾，向投资者展示投顾的服务能力与独特理念。 来自广发证券乌鲁木齐北京中路证券营业部的投资顾问张坤（执业证书编号：S0260615030028）公募 基金模拟配置组合评比中荣获8月月榜第三名。 在谈到模拟组合表现优异时，张坤表示自己日常的模拟交易投资策略为， "优选行业 + 龙头标的 + 分散 配置" 策略，是实现组合高收益的关键框架，优选行业是前提，再从行业中优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility, with strong performance in large-cap technology growth stocks, but signs of sector differentiation and crowded trading are becoming increasingly evident [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Recent surges in AI, computing power, and semiconductor sectors have led some private equity firms to express concerns about short-term risks in technology stocks, prompting a shift in investment focus towards cyclical, consumer, and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][2]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has been rising, indicating a concentration of leveraged funds in technology stocks, which raises potential short-term risks [1][2]. Trading Conditions - The TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sector's trading volume has reached approximately 35%, placing it in the 92nd percentile since 2019, while the growth style's trading volume is around 58%, in the 97th percentile since 2019, indicating a crowded trading environment [2]. - Some private equity firms are adjusting their portfolios to balance exposure, with a focus on reducing positions in overvalued technology stocks while increasing allocations to sectors like new energy and consumer goods [4][6]. Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are showing a clear divergence in strategies, with some reducing exposure to high-flying technology stocks and reallocating to sectors with better valuation prospects, while others maintain their focus on growth opportunities [4][6]. - There is a growing interest in sectors related to overseas demand, such as appliances and consumer brands, which are perceived to have strong competitive advantages and profitability [6][7]. Sector Outlook - The technology sector is expected to continue evolving, with opportunities emerging within the domestic supply chain, particularly in AI and related industries, where valuations are relatively lower compared to international counterparts [5][6]. - Consumer and cyclical assets are gaining attention, with expectations of improved performance as overall market confidence rises, and certain cyclical stocks are anticipated to benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics [7].

食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）紧密跟踪中证食品饮料指数，该指数以中证全指为样本空间，选取归属于 饮料、包装食品与肉类两个行业的上市公司股票作为成分股。十大重仓股包括贵州茅台、伊利股份、五 粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、海天味业等多只大市值龙头股。此外，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）还配 置了场外联接基金（A: 001631；C: 001632）。 消息面上，据海报新闻，梳理发现，在21家白酒上市公司里，仅有6家实现了营收利润的正增长，分别 是贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、老白干酒、金徽酒，但增长幅度多在个位数，呈现微增长 态势。业内专家认为，今年中秋、国庆旺季，名酒价格有机会触底反弹，叠加低度化新品对年轻消费群 体的渗透，行业将呈现"U型"复苏。 此外，据大众日报，近日，商务部会同国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行等9部门印发了 其《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出5个方面19项任务举措释放服务消费潜力。其中提到， 加大对服务消费领域经营主体信贷投放力度，加强对多元化服务消费场景、服务消费集聚区的建设支 持；对与居民日常生活密切相关的服务消费领域经营主体给予贷款贴息等。 华龙证券表示 ...