一个冬日的午后，阳光斜照进陆家嘴银叶投资的会议室。许巳阳坐在中国证券报记者对面，谈及复杂的 宏观变局与资产轮动，他的语速平稳，逻辑清晰。当被问及如何在多变的市场中保持定力时，他语气笃 定："资产管理的第一性原理永远不变，就是为客户理好财。但实现它的路径，必须持续迭代。" 这种"守正出新"的辩证思维，定义了许巳阳及其执掌的百亿级私募银叶投资。在资管行业净值化转型与 无风险收益率下行的深刻变局中，这位以宏观视野见长的首席投资官，正带领公司完成一场从"债券专 家"到"多策略配置专家"的自我进化。他以"解构者"的敏锐，深入产业毛细血管探寻先机；以"驾驭 者"的审慎，在多资产波浪间平衡风险与收益。在成立于2009年的银叶投资迈向第十七个发展年头之 际，许巳阳系统阐述了公司的生存哲学——一种基于深度宏观研究、拥抱多元策略、并以绝对收益为终 极信仰的长期主义实践。 解构产业毛细血管 许巳阳的职业生涯始终与"宏观"紧密相连。在他的投资框架中，宏观研究绝非停留在对于经济数据的解 读，而是必须"深入产业毛细血管"的微观解构过程。这一理念在展望2026年时尤为凸显。 "驱动市场的核心逻辑往往藏在产业的细微处。"许巳阳说。他以当前全 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a slight increase, achieving a 14-day consecutive rise, with a total trading volume of 2.85 trillion yuan in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The Consumer Staples Index, specifically the food and beverage sector, saw a decline of 0.49%, with stocks like Ziyuan Food hitting the daily limit and others such as Yangyuan Beverage and Huanlejia also experiencing gains [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a trading volume of 25.6 million yuan, with a closing premium/discount rate of 0.24%, and it received a net subscription of 6 million units, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2 - The food and beverage industry is characterized as a core sector of essential consumption with strong resilience, currently at historically low valuation levels, having fully priced in expectations of a slowdown in consumer recovery [2] - The investment outlook suggests a focus on leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages, growth-oriented firms actively positioning for emerging trends, and leaders in specific categories with potential for profit improvement [2] - The recent meeting between Chinese and South Korean officials aimed to enhance food safety cooperation and facilitate bilateral agricultural product trade, indicating a strategic focus on improving trade relations in the food sector [2]

最近思考了一个问题，和你们分享下。我认识不少炒股赚钱的人，其中有些到了A9甚至A10，但是生活 都很低调，除了在小圈子里以外也没啥太大影响力。 但如果一个人靠实业赚到这些钱，在公司里至少是几百人的老板，会有不少人跪舔，出去大小也算一号 人物，通常来说也会拥有不少社会关系，办点事也都方便。 也就是说，在拥有同样资产的情况下，股民的实际影响力远小于做实业的。从利润结构角度看，就很容 易解释这件事。 今天A村行情还行，但港村扑街，阿里、腾讯等带头跌。据说是因为阿里Q4的业绩指引下修，抖音的业绩 可能也在降速；不过阿里云据说还比较乐观，Q4环比还提速了。去年9月之前，恒科指数大概是最靓的仔，年 内涨了50%左右，但自从外卖血战之后最多回调了20%多。 实话实说，本来已经很艰难的日子，你还要去卷，你不跌谁跌呢？但是，也必须看到更关键的一面，就是恒科 本质上是和AI、机器人这些最匹配的指数，A村炒作的那些都是些边角料，恒科才是真正的星辰大海。 归纳起来就是，一个人的影响力，不仅看他赚到了多少，也要看他花出去多少，而且可能后者更重要。 就像在大部分家庭里，男性赚钱都比女性多，但家里花钱的往往都是女性，所以整个市场都在讨好女 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position in the recovering domestic consumption market and its structural transformation into a comprehensive tourism service provider [1] Company Analysis - Ctrip is transitioning from a "single booking platform" to a "full-domain tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its leadership in the online travel agency (OTA) sector [1] - The company reported a revenue of 47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, showcasing its resilience in a challenging consumption environment [1] - Ctrip's unique model combines a stable domestic base, international business expansion, comprehensive supply chain coverage, and technological empowerment, resulting in a profit structure characterized by both cyclical resilience and growth certainty [1] Industry Trends - The tourism service industry is experiencing growth, benefiting from an increase in domestic tourism service share and a significant recovery in inbound tourism due to favorable policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3] - The domestic tourism market is showing steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in tourist numbers and 11.5% in tourism revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [8] - The OTA penetration rate in China reached 51.5% in 2024 and continues to rise, indicating a shift towards online booking as the mainstream mode of tourism consumption [8] Competitive Advantages - Ctrip has established significant barriers to entry through brand and traffic advantages, with a user repurchase rate exceeding 60% [4] - The company has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in more than 600 cities domestically and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [4][5] - Ctrip's early global expansion through acquisitions has positioned it well in the international market, with substantial growth in international OTA bookings [5] Business Structure - Ctrip's domestic tourism business remains the core profit base, contributing over 80% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by both high-end and budget travel segments [10] - The international tourism business is rapidly growing, with a significant increase in bookings for inbound and outbound travel, expected to become a core growth driver alongside domestic operations [10] - The company has diversified its service offerings beyond core travel bookings to include vacation products, scenic tickets, and business travel management, enhancing its revenue structure [11][12] Investment Outlook - Ctrip is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong growth potential, with expected revenue growth of 15%-17% in 2026 [13] - The company is anticipated to benefit from policy incentives, rising consumer income, and a recovering tourism market, positioning it as a key player in the consumption recovery cycle [14]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the liquor industry is expected to experience a dual improvement in supply and demand in 2026, following a risk release in 2025, with a focus on short-term sales recovery and mid-term structural and dividend considerations [4][78] - The consumer market is stabilizing, with structural growth changes continuing, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the food and beverage sector in 2025, which underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 20% [15][18] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance among consumer goods, with health products and frozen food sectors showing increases of 18% and 15% respectively, while liquor and beer sectors faced declines of 7% and 9% [15][18] Group 2 - The liquor sector is characterized by a threefold bottoming out, with supply clearing and value becoming more apparent, as major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye stabilize prices and restore confidence in the market [52][78] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in dining, with a focus on leading brands that can outperform expectations in terms of volume and price [4][52] - The food sector is positioned for recovery and growth, with a focus on strong alpha stocks, particularly in the restaurant supply chain and snack categories, as demand begins to rebound [4][52] Group 3 - The report indicates that the high-end consumer segment is showing signs of recovery, with luxury retail sales improving and experience-based consumption leading the way [30][33] - The report notes that the overall retail landscape is evolving towards discount retail, quality retail, and instant retail, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [40][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel development in the liquor industry, with a focus on lower alcohol content and appealing to younger consumers [72]

百隆东方 20260105 摘要 百隆东方四季度出货量同比增长约 21%，全年销量增长约 5%，下半年 通过降价和去库存策略实现销量两位数增长，扭转上半年受关税影响的 下滑趋势。 四季度色纺纱占比回升至 40%以上，毛利率因成本下降和价格修复而改 善，但全年色纺纱总量仍低于去年，胚纱出货迅猛但库存饱和导致交期 延长。 国内工厂四季度亏损面收窄，接近满产状态，交期恢复至 20-30 天，但 前三季度毛利率较低，年底可能进行存货减值计提。 需求上升和价格修复受益于圣诞前后客户集中下单、下游库存低位补货 以及海外棉价优势，预计在欧美市场消费复苏预期下，该趋势可能持续。 公司积极采购美棉和澳棉等原材料，同时进行成品去库和加大原材料采 购，以应对未来需求并锁定成本优势。 优衣库订单占比显著提升，耐克和阿迪达斯订单保持平稳，品牌客户对 原材料和交期要求提高，促使纱线制造商提升竞争力。 公司对 2026 年尤其是上半年持积极态度，预计业绩预增公告中的预期 （6.5~7 亿元）大概率能够实现，并符合预期范围。 Q&A 今年四季度色纺纱与胚纱的销售情况如何？对毛利率有何影响？ 四季度色纺纱占比恢复到 40%以上，相比三季度提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - Duty-free sales have shown exceptional performance, driving growth in the discretionary sector, while Hong Kong consumer stocks have experienced significant declines [4][11]. - The luxury goods sector has outperformed, with a weekly increase of 1.5%, while the retail sector also saw a rise of 1.1% [5][13]. - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in travel-related sectors remains high, contributing positively to the discretionary consumption outlook [3]. Weekly Performance Review - The weekly performance of various sectors is as follows: luxury goods > retail > overseas sportswear > overseas cosmetics > US hotels > domestic sportswear > credit cards > snacks > pets > domestic cosmetics > gold and jewelry > gaming, with respective weekly changes of 1.5%, 1.1%, 0.8%, -0.3%, -0.4%, -2.4%, -2.4%, -2.8%, -2.9%, -4.5%, -4.6%, and -5.6% [11][12]. - The retail sector's growth was significantly driven by China Duty Free, which saw a 7.6% increase due to strong sales during the New Year holiday [6][13]. Monthly and Year-to-Date Performance - Monthly performance shows retail leading with a 4.9% increase, followed by overseas sportswear and US hotels, while domestic cosmetics and gaming sectors faced declines [11]. - Year-to-date performance indicates that overseas cosmetics and US hotels have performed well, while domestic cosmetics and snacks have shown negative growth [12]. Valuation Analysis - The report notes that the valuation of various sectors remains below their average over the past five years, with expected PE ratios for 2025 indicating significant potential for growth [9][14]. - Specific sectors such as overseas sportswear are projected to have a PE of 31.2 times, which is 59% of the past five-year average, while domestic sportswear is at 13.3 times, 70% of the average [14][15].

Overall Industry Review - The food and beverage sector significantly underperformed the market, with a year-to-date decline of -0.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 15.0 percentage points [7][11] - The snack sector showed strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 28.88%, driven by channel expansion and a total revenue growth of 30.97% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - The beverage sector, particularly soft drinks, benefited from travel demand and low-price, high-frequency consumption, achieving a revenue and profit growth in double digits [11][14] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector exhibited weak performance, with a decline in sales and prices, particularly for white liquor, which saw a year-on-year revenue drop of -5.83% and a net profit decline of -6.93% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11][44] - The overall white liquor sector's revenue decreased by -5.8% and net profit by -6.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3, where total revenue fell by -18.4% [44] - The report indicates that the white liquor industry is in a prolonged adjustment phase, with the current downturn lasting 57 months, marking the longest adjustment period in history [35][40] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of boosting domestic demand in 2026, with expectations for policy support to stimulate recovery [3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with low bases for recovery, such as frozen foods and beverages, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery and new product opportunities [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in overseas markets and cost improvements, recommending companies like Anqi Yeast and Mijiu Group for their overseas expansion strategies [4][34] Investment Strategies - The report identifies four key investment themes for 2026: opportunities in overseas markets, cost benefits, new product launches, and value-for-money consumption [4] - Companies with strong platform capabilities and innovative products, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Wancheng Group, are recommended for their potential in the beverage sector [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that can adapt to a low-inflation, low-confidence environment by offering high-value products [14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing an upward trend, driven by sectors such as pharmaceuticals, media, and non-bank financials, with significant gains in online consumption ETFs and leading companies in the consumer goods sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:50, the online consumption ETF (159728.SZ) rose by 4.35%, with BlueFocus up 19.97%, Tianxiashow up 10%, and 37 Interactive Entertainment up 10% [1] - The consumer goods sector is seeing robust growth due to category innovation and new channel expansion strategies [1] Group 2: Policy Support - The government is promoting consumption recovery through the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," focusing on increasing residents' income, promoting bulk consumption, and fostering new consumption types [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes consumption as a key driver of economic growth, indicating ongoing policy support [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Traditional consumer categories are approaching a fundamental recovery point, supported by both policy catalysts and improving macroeconomic indicators [1] - The online retail sector is evolving towards precision and digitalization, with market vitality expected to continue being released under the influence of both incremental and stock policies [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The online consumption ETF (159728.SZ) is positioned to benefit from the steady growth of online retail and the continuous release of policy dividends, presenting good allocation value [1]

节后A股高开稳了！三大主力悄悄调仓，新主线已藏不住？ 春节走亲戚，饭桌上一半人都在聊A股节后能不能"开门红"——有人节前重仓蹲守，盼着开盘吃肉；有人拿着闲钱，琢磨着要不要趁机进场；还有老股民一 边嗑瓜子一边说"别光盯着高开，主力早动了"。 这话还真没说错，随着春节假期结束，A股高开的信号越来越明确：外围市场给力、政策红利加持、资金面宽松，高开几乎成了共识。但更关键的是，北向 资金、社保基金、公募基金这三大"聪明钱"，早就趁着节前悄悄调仓换股，以前的热门赛道有人撤，新的机会已经冒头。 一、高开不是瞎猜！三重利好凑齐"定心丸" 节后A股高开可不是市场瞎起哄，而是政策、外围、资金三方实打实的支撑。先看政策红包，证监会元旦前落地公募基金费率改革，直接向投资者让利300 亿元，还节约510亿元投资成本，鼓励长期持有，这无疑会吸引更多资金进场 。再看外围市场，港股恒生科技指数春节前飙升4%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数 也涨了近4%，百度、爱奇艺这些中概股涨幅领跑，给A股集合竞价添了把力。 三、新主线浮出水面！这几个方向被资金扎堆 主力调仓的轨迹，其实已经把新主线指得明明白白，不是单一热点独舞，而是"权重搭台、成长唱戏"的多元格 ...