Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals Core Insights and Arguments - **Copper Price Expectations**: The anticipated copper price for 2025 is around $10,000 per ton, aligning with current fundamentals. The decline in the spot-futures price spread indicates a rationalization of speculative sentiment, with large enterprises slowing down purchases [1][4]. - **Weakening Fundamentals**: The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a marginal weakening over the past three to four weeks, with inventory levels for copper and aluminum halting their decline and slightly increasing. Downstream operating rates, processing fees, and profitability for copper and aluminum are all on a downward trend [1][6]. - **Seasonal Weakness**: The non-ferrous metals market is expected to enter a traditional off-season from July to early August 2025, with high temperatures and holidays negatively impacting consumption. Previous tariff policies have preemptively exhausted some demand, posing short-term risks of returning to fundamental market conditions [1][7]. - **Valuation and Price Caution**: The current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector is neutral, with commodity prices and sector valuations reflecting caution [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Industry Conditions**: The aluminum sector is experiencing weak conditions, with aluminum rod margins at their lowest in nearly a year. While aluminum rod factory inventories have decreased by approximately 16,000 to 17,000 tons, social inventories have increased by over 10,000 tons, indicating weak demand [1][9]. - **Copper Demand and Inventory**: Copper demand is relatively weak, with electrolytic copper production declining for four consecutive weeks while factory inventories are rising, indicating insufficient demand. Downstream copper rod production has also decreased for three weeks, further confirming the downward trend in demand [1][10]. - **Future Price Adjustments**: It is expected that commodity prices may undergo two adjustments in the coming year, influenced by short-term factors such as tariff-related behaviors and seasonal effects, as well as the long-term negative impacts of U.S. tariff policies [1][11]. Industry Overview: Gold Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Stability**: Short-term inflation expectations support gold prices, with significant adjustments unlikely. Long-term support for gold prices is provided by central bank purchases in emerging markets, with expectations for gold prices to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,400 [2][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The current investment climate suggests that as other sectors present more opportunities, the opportunity cost of holding gold is high. However, as gold prices adjust to reasonable levels, capital may flow back into gold [2][13]. Industry Overview: Steel Core Insights and Arguments - **Steel Industry Performance**: The steel industry performed well in Q1, with Q2 profitability levels expected to remain similar. Investment opportunities may arise if "anti-involution" policies are extended to the steel sector, potentially improving profit margins [14]. Industry Overview: Minor Metals Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities in Tungsten and Cobalt**: There are notable investment opportunities in tungsten and cobalt, with tungsten prices currently stabilizing at high levels. The demand for tungsten is supported by growth in electronics and new energy vehicles, while cobalt may see significant changes in July and August due to inventory dynamics [15].

Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.15% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.52%[3] - Commodity prices generally increased, with IPE Brent crude futures rising by 2.85% and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index up 2.30%[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63%, closing at 98.76, while the yuan depreciated slightly against the dollar at 7.18[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial output fell by 0.13% year-on-year in May, and the industrial capacity utilization rate decreased to 77.43%[9] - The Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index rose significantly to 35.3% from 11.6% in the previous month[27] - U.S. retail and food service sales decreased by 3.29% year-on-year in May, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[17] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation expectations declined, with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations at 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively[22] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a cautious approach amid rising stagflation expectations[31] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates again this year, with current inflation at 1.9% in May, close to the 2% target[32] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions, are contributing to market volatility and inflation uncertainty[35] - The potential for stagflation is increasing, with the Fed's economic growth forecasts being downgraded and unemployment rate predictions rising[31]

Global Asset Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined last week, while commodity prices generally increased. The Nikkei 225 rose by 1.50%, emerging market stock index increased by 0.05%, S&P 500 fell by 0.15%, developed market stock index decreased by 0.30%, Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.51%, and Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [1][3] - Commodity prices saw significant increases, with IPE Brent crude futures up by 2.85%, S&P-Goldman Commodity Index rising by 2.30%, South China Commodity Index increasing by 2.29%, and COMEX copper up by 1.74%. However, London gold spot price decreased by 1.91% [1][3] - In the bond market, domestic 10Y government bond futures prices rose by 0.30%, and the total price index of China bonds increased by 0.16%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.38% [1][3] Economic Indicators in the U.S. - U.S. industrial output fell both year-on-year and month-on-month in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.13% compared to 0.55% in the previous month, and a month-on-month growth rate of -0.21% compared to -0.10% [6][10] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in the U.S. decreased to 77.43%, while the manufacturing capacity utilization rate slightly increased to 76.73% [6] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June remained unchanged at -4.0, showing improvement from April's -26.4 [8] - New private housing starts in the U.S. fell by 4.56% year-on-year in May, and retail and food service sales also declined by 3.29% year-on-year [10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. However, inflation expectations have increased, with the Fed lowering its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [24] - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that its anti-inflation measures are nearly complete, with a cautious stance on future rate cuts, although market expectations suggest a potential rate cut later in the year [25] - The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5% and will slow the pace of bond purchase reductions starting in the fiscal year 2026 [26]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 from two to one, with seven officials supporting no cuts for the year [2] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes that inflation pressures may be exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies, leading to increased market uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy path [2][3] - Economic data shows a mixed picture: initial jobless claims reach 245,500, an eight-month high, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [3] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing a "pendulum effect," with short-term support from geopolitical conflicts, but diminishing safe-haven demand as market reactions remain muted despite rising tensions in the Middle East [4] - Current dollar index stands at 98.67, with real interest rates around 1.15%, suggesting a reasonable gold price range of $3,200-$3,300 per ounce, yet spot gold remains above this range, reflecting market pricing for stagflation risks [5] Group 3 - The Fed's policy is highly data-dependent, with potential implications for gold prices based on upcoming economic data releases, particularly the July CPI and the assessment of tariff impacts in the July FOMC meeting [7] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased safe-haven buying of gold, but there is a caution against the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon, as historical data shows that geopolitical tensions typically boost gold prices for only 1-2 weeks [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong and A-share markets experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index leading the drop, indicating pressure on growth sectors [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, sector ETFs related to oil and gas resources and energy chemicals showed strong performance, reflecting continued investor preference for high dividend yields [1] ETF Performance - The Invesco S&P Consumer ETF surged by 10.03% with a premium of 32.48%, while the Guotai S&P 500 ETF rose by 5.37% with a premium of 19.64% [3] - Other ETFs such as the Saudi ETF and various sector-specific ETFs showed mixed performance, with some experiencing slight declines [3] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Middle East conflict is considered a contributing factor to the market's decline, with reports of U.S. officials preparing for potential strikes on Iran [5] - The evacuation of over 1,600 Chinese citizens from Iran and hundreds from Israel highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [5] U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance, with inflation concerns potentially delaying interest rate cuts [6] - The market anticipates that recovery trades may not materialize until later in the year, contingent on tax reform and debt ceiling developments [6] QDII Investment Opportunities - The People's Bank of China announced plans to increase the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas, addressing the high demand for overseas asset investments [7] - As of May 2024, the total approved QDII quota reached approximately $167.79 billion, with significant increases in quotas for various public fund companies [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term and maintain a long - term bullish view. Silver follows gold and is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but its elasticity will be suppressed by weak economic data [1][3]. - The upcoming non - farm payroll data on Friday night is more important due to the difference in caliber between ADP employment data and non - farm employment data [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Key Information - The number of ADP employed people in the US in May increased by 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with an expected increase of 110,000 and a revised previous value of 60,000. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in May was 49.9, the first contraction in nearly a year, with an expected value of 52.0 and a previous value of 51.6 [2]. - Musk criticized Trump's new cut plan and spending bill, which proposed to cut $9.4 billion in funds, and said it would increase the government deficit to $2.5 trillion [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals was volatile during the day and was slightly boosted at night as the US ADP employment data and ISM non - manufacturing data were below expectations, and the US dollar weakened [3]. - The reasons for the long - term bullish view on gold are: the continuation of the US tariff path, the mid - term stagflation expectation in the US, the Fed's possible delay in interest rate cuts with limited negative impact, and the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price range to watch is [32, 35] [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to increased geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to strong market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Gold prices have shown a short-term upward trend despite previous bearish factors, with the market's basic expectation of stagflation driven by tariff policies remaining unchanged [3] - The long-term upward momentum for gold remains strong, with significant increases in gold imports by China and a notable rise in global gold demand, particularly from ETFs [4] Group 2 - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 tons, marking a 73% month-on-month increase and the highest level in 11 months [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached 1206 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, the highest level for the same period since 2016 [4] - Gold investment demand surged over 100% in Q1 2025, reaching 552 tons, a 170% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery in ETF demand [4]

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant price fluctuations, with spot gold prices dropping sharply, potentially marking the largest weekly decline in six months [1] - The decline in gold prices was primarily driven by a stronger US dollar and easing tensions in the US-China trade war, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Gold prices fell over 2% on Friday and nearly 4% for the week, the largest weekly drop since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - Market risk appetite increased due to the easing of trade tensions, leading to profit-taking by futures traders in the gold market [1] - The market is currently pricing in a reduction of approximately 58 basis points in interest rates by the end of the year, down from a peak expectation of 120 basis points in April [1] - Financial market experts suggest that investors should closely monitor economic data and Federal Reserve communications to better navigate the gold market [1] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are still showing a strong upward trend despite recent declines, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential short-term pullback [2] - Recommendations for trading strategies include buying on dips in the 3175-3170 range and selling on rebounds in the 3235-3240 range [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a slight increase in trading volume, indicating active market participation, with a closing price of 3185 yuan per gram [2] Group 4 - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, and Luk Fook have varying gold prices, providing consumers with more options and investment opportunities [3] - The gold trading management authority urges investors to make rational purchases and avoid excessive speculation [3] - Long-term investors remain optimistic about gold's value retention, despite short-term pullback risks, influenced by global economic conditions and central bank policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has recently reversed its trend, with spot gold rising over 1% on May 19, reaching $3,240.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.93% to $3,248.6 per ounce [1][5]. Price Movements - As of May 19, spot gold was reported at $3,240.68 per ounce, showing a daily increase of $38.9 or 1.21% [3]. - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,248.6 per ounce, up $61.4 or 1.93% from the previous close of $3,187.2 [2]. Recent Trends - The gold price had previously peaked at approximately $3,430 per ounce on May 7, followed by a significant decline, including a drop of about $72 per ounce on May 14, marking a daily decrease of 2.23% [5]. - Factors contributing to the recent decline included improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade talks and a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs due to profit-taking [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices reflects a short-term bearish sentiment influenced by trade easing, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, and technical overbought conditions [6]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about U.S. dollar credit risk and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [6].

Group 1 - The international gold price has experienced a significant decline, with a potential for the largest weekly drop in six months due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - As of the report, spot gold has decreased by 1.83% to $3181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [1] - The dollar index has risen by 0.2% this week, indicating a potential fourth consecutive week of gains, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices opened higher today, trading around $3245, with a critical resistance level at $3250; a breakthrough could lead to a rise towards $3300, while failure to maintain above $3200 may result in a drop to the $3150 area [2] - Analysts recommend a short-term trading strategy focusing on selling on rebounds around $3265-$3270 and buying on dips around $3225-$3220, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [3]