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Core Viewpoint - The strategy of going long on the gold-oil ratio has been repeatedly mentioned since last year, and the recent surge in the gold-oil ratio confirms the accuracy of previous strategy recommendations. The strong performance of gold is driven by increasing uncertainties in the U.S. and weakening economic indicators, while oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's production recovery and deteriorating macroeconomic sentiment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold-Oil Ratio Performance - The gold-oil ratio has reached a new high this year, validating the previous strategy of going long on this ratio [4]. - The recent strength in the gold-oil ratio is attributed to the accumulation of uncertainties, particularly influenced by frequent policy statements from Trump, leading to heightened economic uncertainty and signs of economic weakness in the U.S. [6][8]. - The S&P 500 volatility index has been hitting new highs, reflecting increased risk aversion and driving gold prices higher [6][8]. Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Following OPEC's announcement to restore production in April, oil prices faced significant downward pressure, nearing new lows since 2022, as sanctions on Iran did not lead to a noticeable reduction in supply [6][8]. - The weakening demand in the U.S. has contributed to a downward adjustment in global oil demand growth [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold-oil ratio is expected to continue rising due to potential geopolitical events, particularly as Trump may exert pressure on countries like Iran, which could introduce new geopolitical variables and risk premiums for gold [10]. - Despite recent temporary declines in inflation, the ongoing interest rate cut cycle suggests a possibility of renewed inflation speculation, which could benefit gold's anti-inflation properties [12]. - OPEC's production recovery is set to restart in April, with an estimated increase of about 150,000 barrels per day, potentially leading to structural oversupply starting in Q2 [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [15][16]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from approximately 4.8% at the beginning of the year to around 4.3% [9][11]. - The "Trump trade" is experiencing a cooling off, similar to the trend observed in 2017, driven by slow implementation of tariff policies and weakening economic indicators in the U.S. [9][12]. - Positive carry is highlighted as a significant factor driving the strength of long-term bonds, providing a protective cushion in a volatile market environment [11][13]. Summary by Sections U.S. Treasury Yields - The report notes a rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which has decreased significantly despite rising inflation indicators [9][11]. - The market's focus on purchasing long-term U.S. Treasuries is emphasized as a safe trading strategy [11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe suggests that the dollar's strength may not have reached its peak yet [12][14]. - The report also mentions that the market's reaction to clear directional signals often results in lower trading value, while positive carry trades can accumulate small victories into larger gains [13]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests that the narrowing of the U.S.-Euro interest rate differential may lead to a stronger euro, indicating ongoing dynamics in the forex market [12][14]. - It is noted that the market's expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have remained stable despite the changes in U.S. rates [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential implications for the global economy and currency markets [1][10][14]. Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell below its lowest point since December 10, with the dollar against the yen hitting a new low since October of the previous year [1][2]. - The euro reached its highest point against the dollar since December 10, trading around 1.05 USD [3]. - The offshore yuan appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore yuan rising by 143 points compared to the previous trading day [4]. Market Reactions - European markets experienced significant declines due to tariff concerns, with European bank stocks seeing their largest drop in seven months, particularly affecting Spanish banks with exposure to Mexico [5]. - US stock futures also fell, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures showing increased declines, while spot gold prices rose by 1% during the day [6]. Dollar Strength and Economic Policies - The strong dollar trend observed in the last quarter of the previous year, driven by expectations of inflation and reduced interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has reversed, leading to a decline of approximately 2.3% in the dollar index this year [8][10]. - Analysts suggest that the factors influencing the dollar index have shifted from risk aversion and inflation expectations to economic fundamentals, with concerns over the impact of tariff policies on the US economy [11]. Future Outlook - The new US Treasury Secretary Scott P. Baer stated that the US will continue to pursue a strong dollar policy, but there are indications that the dollar index may trend downward in the long term [14]. - Analysts predict that factors suppressing the dollar will become more prominent, including ongoing fiscal deficits and a monetary policy environment favoring lower interest rates [16]. - The potential for a re-evaluation of the dollar's exchange rate during Trump's second term raises questions about the feasibility of new currency coordination mechanisms [17].

任何投资交易系统都不会100%的盈利，投资就是在一定条件下的试错。对了，让利润飞；错了，止损跑路。既然都是试错，就不要有执念，不要去预 测。 或受特朗普将任命对华鹰派官员（国务卿卢比奥与国家安全顾问舒尔茨）消息影响，今日股市大幅下跌，10Y国债利率震荡下行至2.0725%附近。 上周三特朗普赢得大选后，美元指数和美股保持强势、黄金大跌、比特币暴涨，海外持续演绎"特朗普交易"，而国内股债反应平淡。然而，股债可能像 是"树懒"，上周三喝的酒，今天终于醉了。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241112— 川普渐露鹰爪，股债逼回原形（+特朗普将任命对华鹰派官员+股市大幅下跌+资金面收敛转松=中下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行今日公开市场开展1255亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日183亿元逆回购到期。净投放1072亿元。 上午资金面偏收敛，午后有所转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 11. 12) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

特朗普经济学的过去和未来 保时捷又选了位销售专家做中国 CEO 加州迪士尼乐园工会扫除罢工障碍 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 特朗普经济学的过去和未来 拜登上周末宣布退出今年美国总统大选，在民主党选出自己候选人前，日本和韩国股市分别收跌 1.2% 和 1.1%，因为市场降低特朗普胜选预期，卖出可能受益于特朗普美国孤立主义的亚洲盟友们的 股票，在选情不确定的时候先获利了解。 围绕特朗普核心政策主张的交易也被叫做 "特朗普交易" —— 这些政策和特朗普之前做总统时候做成 的和打算做的差不多，核心依然是提高关税、驱逐移民以及减税。若成功实施对应的可能是进口成本 增加、工资上升以及经济过热所带来的加息。 共和党在特朗普右耳中弹前更新的执政纲领，也基本在承诺解决上面这些特朗普提出的标志性议题。 他们谴责 "对全球主义的盲目信仰"，并表示 "共和党必须回归其作为工业、制造业、基础设施和工人 党的根基"。 特朗普已明确计划对所有进口到美国商品征收 10% 关税、但对中国出口商品征 60%，他还威胁要对 中国公司在墨西哥生产的电动车征收 100% 进口关税，尽管美国 2018 年与墨西哥和加拿大达成 ...