Core Insights - The "Trump trade" is facing significant losses as assets linked to Trump and his family have sharply declined since his return to the White House, with some investors suffering substantial losses [1] - The Trump Media & Technology Group's stock has plummeted by 75% since his inauguration, while meme coins associated with Trump and Melania have seen declines of 86% and 99% respectively [1] - The sell-off has affected a wide range of speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies and high-risk stocks, as investor focus shifts from political prospects to actual company performance [1][2] Market Trends - The decline in Trump-related assets coincides with a broader cooling of market speculation, with a notable 21% drop in a basket of unprofitable tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs from mid-October to November 21 [2] - The Trump Media & Technology Group has a staggering price-to-sales ratio of 1240, indicating extreme valuation concerns [2] - The overall performance of the "Trump trade" strategy is mixed, with healthcare stocks rising while clean energy companies struggle [2][3] Alternative Assets - Gold has emerged as a winner amid economic slowdown concerns, with prices around $4200 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 60% increase this year [3] - Bitcoin has faced a brutal sell-off, dropping 30% in less than two months, impacting Trump-related business ventures heavily invested in cryptocurrencies [3] Economic Outlook - Investors are shifting focus to upcoming inflation indicators, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Despite increased volatility in the S&P 500, the index has shown resilience, rebounding from sell-offs and remaining close to historical highs [4] - Concerns over budget deficits are keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields high, while the dollar is weakening due to fears that proposed tax cuts will exacerbate deficit spending [4]

Core Viewpoint - The UK remains steadfast in imposing a digital services tax on US tech companies despite pressure from the Trump administration, indicating a potential collapse of Trump's trade policies [1][6][9] Group 1: UK-US Trade Relations - The UK has historically been a close ally of the US, often serving as a model for Trump's trade policies, including tariff agreements [3][4] - The UK was the first country to reach a tariff agreement with the US, which has influenced subsequent agreements with other nations [3][4] Group 2: Tariff Agreements - Specific tariff reductions include a decrease in the tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported from the US to the UK from 27.5% to 10%, with a 25% rate on additional units [4] - The UK eliminated tariffs on US beef and set a 13,000-ton duty-free quota, while also removing tariffs on US ethanol [4] Group 3: Digital Services Tax - The UK has been collecting a digital services tax since 2020, which has significantly impacted major US tech companies, generating £678 million in 2024 [6][7] - The tax targets companies with global digital revenues exceeding £500 million and UK user revenues over £25 million, with a rate of 2% [7] - The UK government anticipates that the digital services tax could generate £1.4 billion annually by 2030 [7][9] Group 4: International Taxation Issues - The UK's insistence on the digital services tax reflects a broader issue of tax revenue loss from multinational corporations in the digital economy [9] - The lack of a unified global tax framework has led to fragmented international tax systems, necessitating consensus through multilateral organizations like the OECD [9]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [4]. - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: the significant prior decline in prices leading to a technical rebound, and the rising expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with an 84.9% probability of this occurring in December [5]. - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in January is estimated at 67.2%, with a 21.6% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [6]. - Hassett's potential appointment is seen as a move to align the Federal Reserve with President Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin's price is still down over 27% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October [8]. - Analysts warn that the asset may still be at risk of entering a bear market, indicating ongoing volatility in the cryptocurrency sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [2] - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1] Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: 1. Oversold conditions in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, which had previously peaked at over $126,000 before dropping to around $80,000 [3] 2. Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, boosting investor sentiment [3][4] Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [4] - Hassett has indicated a willingness to implement immediate rate cuts if appointed, aligning with President Trump's economic strategies [4] Impact of Political Climate on Cryptocurrency - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to President Trump's decreasing approval ratings, which have fallen to 38%, the lowest since his second term began [8] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggests that Trump's waning influence negatively affects Bitcoin prices, as the cryptocurrency has become associated with "Trumpism" [7][9][10] Historical Context of "Trump Trade" - The "Trump trade" refers to the surge in cryptocurrency prices following Trump's election, driven by expectations of favorable policies for digital assets [10] - Despite initial support for cryptocurrencies, the market has faced volatility due to trade wars and other economic factors during Trump's presidency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [3]. - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: the significant prior decline in prices leading to a technical rebound, and the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 84.9%, with a 67.2% chance of cumulative cuts by January [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [5]. - Hassett has indicated that he would advocate for immediate rate cuts if appointed, reflecting a potential shift in monetary policy direction [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the recent price rebound, Bitcoin remains over 27% lower than its peak of $126,080 in October, raising concerns about a potential bear market [6]. - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman attributes the recent volatility in Bitcoin prices to the declining popularity of former President Trump, suggesting that political dynamics significantly impact cryptocurrency valuations [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and strategic asset allocation considerations, particularly in the context of U.S. political developments and global monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The chief economist of Guosheng Securities, Dr. Xiong Yuan, holds a strong "strategic and tactical bullish" view on gold, predicting significant price movements around the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 [1]. - Historical data shows that consistent investment in gold since 2000 has yielded positive cumulative returns, indicating its importance as a key asset class beyond being a traditional safe haven [1]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a long-term weakening of the dollar's credibility, reinforcing the bullish logic for gold [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The article highlights that the global monetary expansion over the past few decades, particularly in the last ten years, has created a favorable environment for gold as a hedge against inflation [2]. - The expectation of continued loose monetary policies in both the U.S. and China, including potential "double easing" in the U.S. by 2026, supports the strategic focus on gold [2]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is viewed optimistically, supported by unexpected industrial competitiveness, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence [3]. - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence, such as local government debt management and financial support mechanisms, are seen as positive indicators for the stock market [3]. - The transition phase of the Chinese economy from a real estate downturn to exploring new growth pillars positions the stock market as a key area for policy focus, potentially leading to a "slow bull" market [3]. Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in 2026, influenced by factors such as economic performance, inflation levels, monetary policy, and regulatory environment [4]. - The analysis suggests that without strong catalysts, various asset classes, including bonds, are likely to experience fluctuations rather than extreme movements, particularly in the year-end period [4].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year, with a recent low of $93,778.6, indicating a significant market correction driven by various macroeconomic factors and changes in investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, leading to a synchronized pressure on global risk assets [2]. - The liquidity in the market has decreased, exacerbating the downward trend, as many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen capital outflows, and long-term holders are cashing out profits [2][5]. - The psychological barrier of $100,000 has led to increased selling pressure, with institutional funds withdrawing and a lack of new liquidity entering the market [2][5]. Historical Context - Bitcoin has experienced multiple corrections since first surpassing $100,000, with significant drops occurring in early 2025, influenced by geopolitical concerns and security incidents [3]. - The current downturn is seen as a result of compounded factors, including macroeconomic risks, market structure issues, and investor psychology, similar to past market corrections [3][4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains, supported by increasing institutional participation and a healthier market structure [7]. - Analysts suggest that once a substantial interest rate cut cycle begins, Bitcoin could see renewed upward momentum as funds are reallocated across asset classes [7]. - The current liquidity constraints are viewed as a temporary effect from recent market shocks, with the potential for Bitcoin to find a new equilibrium and open up upward price movement in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized significantly after a tumultuous period earlier in the year, with the dollar index recovering close to pre-election levels, indicating a return to normalcy in currency valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In April, the foreign exchange market experienced unprecedented volatility due to Trump's announcement of increased tariffs, leading to a record daily trading volume of nearly $10 trillion [3]. - The dollar index faced its worst annual start since the 1970s, driven by concerns over trade policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - The subsequent recovery of the dollar began in the summer, attributed to several stabilizing factors [5]. Group 2: Supporting Factors - Three main supportive factors for the dollar's rebound include: 1. A de-escalation in trade tensions, with agreements reached between the U.S. and major trading partners like the EU and China [5]. 2. The resilience of the U.S. economy, which has performed better than many institutions expected in the face of tariff impacts [5]. 3. The nearing end of the global central bank rate-cutting cycle, which has reduced uncertainty in the currency markets [5][9]. Group 3: Unexpected Boosts - Two unexpected factors that contributed to the dollar's stability include: 1. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the release of key economic data, thereby reducing volatility in the dollar and U.S. bond markets [7]. 2. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting, which, while resulting in a rate cut, signaled that future cuts are not guaranteed, providing a boost to the dollar [7][9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Institutional investors remain optimistic about the dollar's long-term trend, viewing the earlier declines as a minor correction rather than the end of a strong cycle [11][12]. - The underlying logic for the dollar's strength remains intact, supported by the relative resilience of the U.S. economy, global interest rate differentials, and its dominant role in global trade and as a reserve currency [14]. - The market has learned to rationally assess policy news, moving away from emotional trading, which has allowed the dollar to return to a more stable valuation based on fundamental factors [14][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight gold and blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds and growth stocks, and underweight credit bonds, crude oil, and currency [5][60] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From mid - January to March 2025, due to Trump's aggressive reforms, the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds chased overseas assets. In early April, Trump's high - tariff measures triggered a global financial tsunami. After that, the Fed's rate - cut process benefits global stocks and precious metals, while the bond yields of various countries are suppressed. The commodity market remains stable overall but shows significant differentiation. Looking forward, the macro - environment is still relatively favorable for precious metals and stocks, slightly favorable for industrial commodities, but unfavorable for bonds. It is recommended to increase bond allocation while being bullish on stocks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 9 Months Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed overseas. In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused a global financial shock. After that, the international trade situation eased, and the Fed's rate - cut benefited global stocks and precious metals. The commodity market was stable with differentiation [7] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's Domestic Demand Continues to Weaken - In August 2025, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade disputes. The full - year economic growth target of about 5% is expected to be achieved. In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, especially in real estate. Consumption growth also declined. Industrial output growth slowed, and there was a large deflationary pressure. The real - estate market showed supply - demand deterioration and price decline, but the overall situation was slightly better than in Q3 2024. Inflation showed a decline in overall CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline. Exports were affected by the US and other factors, but still showed resilience. Fiscal expenditure showed a marginal weakening, and financial data showed that new social financing was mainly supported by fiscal means. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and new policy - based financial tools were launched [8][10][15] 3.2.2 US Economic Recovery but Weak Employment - In the first half of 2025, the US economy fluctuated due to Trump's reforms. In the second half, the growth momentum recovered. Employment data showed a shortage of new non - farm jobs, a low growth rate of salaries, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but no recession risk. Inflation showed a stable recovery, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [27][29][33] 3.2.3 The Fed Restarts the Rate - cut Process - On September 16 - 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP. The decision was due to the weakening of US economic growth momentum, the slowdown of employment growth, and the balance between employment and inflation risks. The Fed's economic outlook is more optimistic, and it is expected to cut interest rates two more times in 2025 and less frequently in 2026 and 2027. The Fed's rate - cut is a risk - management measure, and the second - stage rate - cut process will be step - by - step [37][40][45] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury yields showed a downward - rebound - downward - rebound trend. It is expected to run weakly in the second half of 2025. US Treasury yields were high - fluctuating, and it is predicted to continue high - running. The US dollar index is expected to be weak first and then strong. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Global stock indices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to be strong, but the contradiction between high risk - appetite and weak corporate profits is increasing. The commodity market is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock [47][49][54] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to September 2025, stocks rose, bonds fell, and commodities were under pressure. The international trade situation and domestic policies affected asset performance. It is recommended to underweight currency, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds, underweight credit bonds, overweight blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate growth stocks, underweight crude oil, and overweight gold [58][60]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing dynamics in the commodity market, driven by domestic supply policies for lithium and silicon, and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve affecting precious metals and copper [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis points (bp) cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations for consecutive cuts in the upcoming FOMC meetings [6]. - Factors contributing to the optimistic outlook for rate cuts include a shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making approach, the weakening U.S. labor market, and political pressures from the Trump administration [7][8]. - The long-term interest rate target may be adjusted downwards, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments, with current expectations for long-term rates around 2.8%-2.9% [8]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Landscape - The article highlights that inflation may ease next year, influenced by the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and the impact of tariffs on core commodity inflation [11][13]. - The Zillow rent index shows a significant decline, which may indicate a lagging effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and overall inflation trends [11]. - Despite the weakening labor market, there remains confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with no immediate signs of a severe downturn [15][16]. Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Precious metals are expected to have upward elasticity during the rate-cutting cycle, while copper and other base metals may follow suit if the U.S. economy shows signs of improvement [5][16]. - The article suggests that the valuation of commodities will depend on the Federal Reserve's terminal rate outlook and the anticipated adjustments in economic growth rates [16][17]. - There is a notable preference for gold in overseas markets, with domestic silver showing good upward potential, influenced by macroeconomic drivers [17].