Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high production and weak demand, with an expected increase in inventory in the future. The fundamentals are difficult to improve, but the valuation is at a relatively low level, and there may be positive macro - level news, so it is expected to show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around the previous low of 4644 and the pressure around the 20 - day moving average of 4812 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC is 4719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume is 535,541 lots, down 14,834 lots; the open interest is 1,194,995 lots, up 3,089 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 131,012 lots, up 1,096 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 4850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4613.08 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan. The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 4820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4708.75 yuan/ton, up 1.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 99 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2690 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China is 2530 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 549 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars; in Southeast Asia is 192 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real estate climate index is 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 45,399 million square meters, up 5,597.99 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,485,800,000 square meters, up 5,471.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.74%, down 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.52%, down 0.15 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 15.05%, with the put option up 0.01 percentage points and the call option unchanged [3]. b. Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 76.69%, a significant decline compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 9.38% to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5142 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5432 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3]. c. Outlook - This week, many PVC plants are expected to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down plants is limited, so the capacity utilization rate of PVC is expected to return to a high level. In October, there are few maintenance plants and new production capacity is increasing, resulting in relatively high supply pressure [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and downstream orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines. Due to the high - production and weak - demand situation of PVC, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - The calcium carbide - based process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use caustic soda profits to offset chlorine losses. However, the supply of calcium carbide is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a mixed fundamental outlook, with supply concerns heightened by a decrease in copper concentrate processing fees and a production cut forecast from Chile's Codelco, while demand expectations are improving marginally due to the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Copper concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, raising supply concerns [1] - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, has lowered its annual production forecast, exacerbating supply worries [1] Group 2: Demand Outlook - Social inventory has decreased over the past week, although the absolute level remains low, leading to improved demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to drive marginal improvements in demand [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The collective inventory accumulation across LME, COMEX, and SHFE indicates weak terminal consumption during the off-season [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has dampened market sentiment, limiting financial support for copper prices [1] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The copper market is characterized by a coexistence of tight supply and inventory accumulation, alongside fluctuating macroeconomic drivers, suggesting a short-term oscillation in price [1] - The market is awaiting validation of demand during the peak season and clearer policy signals [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is facing a complex situation. In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 5054 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the trading volume is 819,976 lots, up 315,680 lots; the open interest is 869,290 lots, up 83,334 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,473 lots, down 4,750 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4869.23 yuan/ton, down 10.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4906.88 yuan/ton, down 25.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 254 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2548.33 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China is 2320 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 521 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 181 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia is 189 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.33%, up 0.87 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.96%, up 1.31 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.23 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 49.28 tons, up 1.2 tons. The inventory in the East China region is 43.52 tons, up 1.15 tons, and in the South China region is 5.76 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 25.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.03%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points [3]. Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC, with a much higher increase for the Chinese mainland than other countries and regions. The market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou on August 18 was 0 - 50 yuan/ton lower than last Friday, at 4780 - 4880 yuan/ton. The PVC main contract has changed to V2601, which closed down 1.17% at 5054 yuan/ton. From August 9 to 15, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.33%, up 0.87% from the previous period. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% to 811,400 tons compared with the previous period, and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. The domestic calcium - carbide price is under pressure, and the US dollar price of ethylene may maintain a slight upward trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment driven by previous policies has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day, with V2509 dropping 2.68% to close at 5,149 yuan/ton [3]. - In the supply side, last week's PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.80% week - on - week. With the completion of most domestic PVC maintenance in July, and some restarting and continuous shutdown of certain plants next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly, and the new capacity load is gradually increasing, intensifying future supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, it is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, with only rigid procurement. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand transmission [3]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply of calcium carbide will exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; the ethylene fundamentals change little, and the price may fluctuate slightly [3]. - From a macro perspective, the EU - US tariff agreement has been reached, and the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations should be monitored. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support around 5,100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan; the trading volume was 2,133,221 lots, an increase of 269,370 lots; the open interest was 818,506 lots, a decrease of 41,811 lots [3]. - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 744,296 lots, a decrease of 6,830 lots; the short positions were 758,920 lots, an increase of 11,247 lots; the net long positions were - 14,624 lots, a decrease of 18,077 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,173.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.69 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.88 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC was - 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,581.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.79%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 70.27%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 42.7 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons; the inventory in East China was 37.82 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons; the inventory in South China was 4.88 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6 (with 2012 as the base year of 100), a decrease of 0.12 [3]. - The cumulative completed area of real estate construction was 633,321.43 million square meters; the cumulative new construction area was 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 30,364.32 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.52%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.62%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 27.93%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 27.91%, an increase of 6.23 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 60 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 5,070 to 5,150 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [3]. - As of July 24th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 68.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.23% [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - After the overseas short squeeze risk is released, zinc prices are expected to return to fundamental logic. Currently in the off - season for consumption and facing supply pressure, zinc prices are under significant pressure [3] 3. Summary by Content Important Data - As of July 25, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 3.16% to $2,840.5 per ton from the previous week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 2.65% to 22,885 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from $4.75 per ton last week to - $1.96 per ton [1] - As of the week ending July 25, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained flat at 3,800 yuan per metal ton compared to the previous week. The weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates rose by $2 - 3 per ton to around $76 per ton. The current high - price for imported dollars is $85 per dry ton, generally ranging from $60 - 70 per dry ton, and the latest tender results for domestic mines have not been finalized [1] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.3% to 59.42% from the previous week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 0.92% to 51.03%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.33% to 55.99% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions of SMM was 98,300 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous week. The warrant inventory increased by 1,928 tons to 13,289 tons from the previous week, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 tons to 115,775 tons [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was about - 140 yuan per ton, and the profit after adding by - product income was about 1,200 yuan per ton [2] Market Analysis - Last week, due to the combined factors of market sentiment explosion and overseas short squeezes, the zinc futures price rose significantly, but the demand in the spot market did not improve, and the spot premium declined rapidly [3] - On the cost side, the new monthly tender price for domestic mines has not been finalized, and the TC for imported mines continues to rise, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the expectation of increased supply remains unchanged. Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and are not very motivated to purchase from the mine end. It is expected that the TC will continue to rise [3] - On the consumption side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is showing a cumulative trend, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year [3]