Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic spot prices and transaction spreads have shown fluctuations, with significant changes in the market sentiment due to easing U.S. inflation and favorable tariff policies [1][2] - The overall market sentiment has improved, supported by a series of stimulus policies in China, including interest rate cuts and capital market reforms, leading to a marginal macroeconomic improvement [1] - Social inventory continues to decline, although the pace of inventory reduction has slowed down, indicating resilience in the market despite high copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is facing challenges as rising copper prices have suppressed downstream orders, with customers primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a noticeable decline in new orders [1][2] - The current market is characterized by a tight supply situation, but the demand release has not been significant, resulting in a cautious purchasing stance from downstream buyers [2] - The expectation for next week’s price spread is between a premium of 200 to 300 yuan/ton, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand weakness [1][2] Group 3: Inventory Changes - As of May 16, the total national electrolytic copper social inventory is 128,000 tons, showing an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week [3][5] - In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 13,600 tons, while in Shanghai, it increased by 6,700 tons to 98,200 tons [3][5] - Global inventory, including the Shanghai bonded zone, stands at 527,000 tons, which is an increase of 8,200 tons compared to the previous week [5]

Group 1 - After the Labor Day holiday, Shanghai aluminum futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 19,300 yuan/ton, driven by market uncertainty and expectations of weaker future demand [1] - Analysts indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market is partly due to the transition from the peak consumption season to a period of lower demand, as well as the impact of U.S. tariff policies on exports [1][3] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains at historically high levels, while downstream processing rates have begun to decline, leading to an accumulation of nearly 40,000 tons of aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory during the holiday [1][3] Group 2 - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is around 16,500 yuan/ton, influenced by a significant drop in alumina prices, which may exert further downward pressure on aluminum prices amid weakening consumption expectations [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment, including potential monetary easing and the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, could provide some support for aluminum prices, although concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on global demand persist [4][5] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of inventory and the spot market, as well as the upstream alumina prices, to gauge future trends in aluminum pricing [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].