1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for October 2025. M2 increased by 8.2% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of October 2025 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond financing slowed down, and credit demand was weak [2][13]. - M1 declined, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened slightly. However, the M1 - M2 gap has been narrowing overall this year, which is an important signal of capital activation and can boost the sentiment of the equity market in the short term [3][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing Data Validates Bond Market Space - **Social Financing Growth Rate and Composition**: The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in October was 8.50%, with the growth rate falling for three consecutive months. New social financing was 81.5 billion yuan, 58.08 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Government bond net financing was 48.93 billion yuan, 56.02 billion yuan less than the same period last year. New RMB loans decreased by 2.01 billion yuan, 31.66 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In direct financing, corporate bond net financing was 24.69 billion yuan, 14.82 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 6.96 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new non - standard financing decreased by 10.85 billion yuan, 3.58 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][13]. - **Credit Demand**: New RMB loans by financial institutions in October were 22 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate loans increased by 35 billion yuan, 22 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with obvious bill impulse, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 3 billion yuan, 14 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident loans decreased by 36.04 billion yuan, 52.04 billion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating weak demand in the real estate market [2][14]. 3.2 M1 - M2 Spread and Capital Activation - **M1 and M2 Trends**: In October, M2 increased by 8.20% year - on - year, down 0.2 percentage points, and M1 increased by 6.20% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The absolute value of the M1 - M2 gap widened slightly to 2.00pct, but it has been narrowing overall this year, which is a signal of capital activation and can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term. The growth rate difference between social financing and M2 in October was 0.30pct [3][25]. - **Deposit Changes**: In October, household deposits decreased by 134 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 108.53 billion yuan, 35.53 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 72 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 185 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which may promote further capital activation [3][25]. 3.3 Investment Advice - **Equity Market**: The recent narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap is an important signal of capital activation, which can boost the equity market sentiment in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on fundamental improvement and policy coordination [4][35]. - **Bond Market**: The social financing data in October shows that the growth rate of social financing has declined. The data verifies the uncertainty of the economic recovery. The bond yield has declined recently, and there is still some room for further decline. In 2026, the central bank's monetary policy will continue the "moderately loose" tone. For the bond market, investors are advised to mainly conduct band operations on interest - rate bonds, pay attention to the structural opportunities of green bonds and technology bonds in credit bonds, dynamically adjust the stock - bond ratio, and pay attention to elastic assets such as pro - cyclical convertible bonds [4][38].

金融研究 2025年11月18日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 17 日，A 股四大股指有所调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 3972.03 点；深成 指下跌 0.11%，报收 13202 点；创业板指下跌 0.2%，报收 3105.2 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 1354.04 点。市场成交 19,303 亿元，较前日减少 501 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+1.67%)， 国防军工(+1.59%)，煤炭(+1.32%)涨幅居前；医药生物(-1.73%)，银行(-1.31%)，非银金融(-1.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,582/138/2,724。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-47、-121、-3、171 亿元，分别变动+332、+120、-133、-318 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 128.68、91.95、16.65 与 2.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-17.1%、-12.71%、-3.62%与-0.95%，三年期历 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector, particularly gold, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 37.6% in October, marking it as a standout performer in consumer spending [2] - The surge in gold purchases is attributed to a more than 50% increase in international gold prices this year, currently stabilizing above $4,100 per ounce, leading consumers to invest in gold as a safe asset [4] - Overall retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with rural consumption growing at a faster rate of 4.1% compared to urban areas, indicating a shift in spending patterns [9] Group 2: Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial output for October rose by 4.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing at 8% and 7.2% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [11] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-tech production, as evidenced by increased investments in smart equipment and advanced production lines [12] Group 3: Investment and Economic Challenges - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in real estate development investment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the property market [14] - Excluding the real estate sector, national investment actually increased by 1.7%, with manufacturing investments continuing to grow [17] Group 4: Trade and Export Dynamics - In October, the total value of imports and exports rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with imports increasing by 1.4%, indicating a rise in domestic demand [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has slowed, suggesting a potential easing of deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [21] Group 5: Market Performance - The stock market has recently surpassed the 4,000-point mark, reflecting increased investor confidence and a shift of funds from savings to equity investments [23]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains an "overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industries, with a ranking of industry prosperity as follows: copper and aluminum > gold > steel [1][2]. Supply - Supply growth for steel, copper, and aluminum remains constrained. For steel, energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to restrict supply, with crude steel output facing pressure. Future policies similar to the 2017 supply-side reform need to be monitored [3]. - For copper, Freeport and Teck Resources have lowered their 2026 production guidance, leading to increased disruptions at the mining level, with a projected 0.1% year-on-year decline in global refined copper output for 2026 [3]. - Aluminum production in China is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026 due to capacity constraints [3]. Demand - Demand recovery will contribute to price elasticity for steel, copper, and aluminum. The real estate market is still expected to stabilize, but the World Steel Association forecasts a 1% year-on-year decline in steel demand in China for 2026 [4]. - For copper, the demand from the new energy sector is anticipated to be the main growth driver, with a projected 1.5% increase in global copper demand for 2026 [4]. - Aluminum demand in China is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2026, driven by manufacturing sectors such as new energy vehicles and electricity, which offset declines in real estate [4]. Gold - The demand for gold is expected to rise due to ETF investments and central bank purchases. The U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, combined with increased global uncertainty, is likely to boost gold ETF investment demand [5]. Recommended Stocks - For steel, companies such as Baosteel and Jiuli Special Materials are recommended, with a focus on Erdos, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [6]. - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are recommended, with attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [6]. - For aluminum, China Hongqiao is recommended, with a focus on Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo, and Zhongfu Industrial [6]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining is recommended, with attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Gold International [6].

民间消费仅增0.1%，低于上季0.4%，高物价抑制支出意愿；资本支出则增1.0%，远超预期0.3%。经济 财政大臣城内实称，消费与资本支出连续增长，经济仍处温和复苏轨道。 分析师预计日本第四季度GDP将反弹0.6%。高市早苗政府正筹划约17万亿日元刺激计划，改善家庭收 入，支撑明年消费。经济学家认为，此次萎缩多为一次性因素，趋势仍指向逐步复苏，但或令日本央行 加息路径更趋复杂。 周一（11月17日）亚洲时段，美元/日元维持高位震荡，最新美元兑日元汇率报154.70附近，周一公布的 数据线示，日本第三季度GDP环比年率下滑1.8%，为六个季度以来首次萎缩，主要受美国关税拖累出 口，虽萎缩幅度小于预期，或仅为暂时性挫折。 日本政府数据显示，日本第三季度GDP季环比下降0.4%，优于市场预估的收缩0.6%。第二季度修正后 增长2.3%。 出口成主要拖累，净外需拉低经济增长0.2个百分点，受美国9月起对日商品征收15%基础关税影响，汽 车出货量急降。住房投资亦因4月能效新规放缓而下滑。 从技术角度看，美元对日元汇率短线仍维持偏多结构，但上方压力区域清晰。上周五，USD/JPY自 153.60（4小时图100周期均线） ...

Macroeconomic Environment - The US government has ended its longest shutdown, with a temporary funding bill supporting most government departments until January 30, 2026, requiring further negotiations thereafter [3] - Economic data releases in the US are delayed, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to show a significant cooling in the job market, potentially leading to another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3][4] - In Europe, industrial production has underperformed expectations, but economic sentiment indicators are improving, with the European Central Bank focusing on economic recovery while expressing concerns about inflation [4] Domestic Economic Conditions - In China, new social financing in October decreased year-on-year, impacted by the real estate cycle and local government debt repayments, leading to suppressed corporate loans [4] - Monetary aggregates M1 and M2 have slowed in growth, with ongoing issues such as slow fiscal fund disbursement and a decline in fixed asset investment growth [4] - High-frequency data indicates a decline in real estate transactions, while agricultural wholesale prices have slightly increased; upstream prices for coking coal and coke have dropped, while non-ferrous metals and gold prices have strengthened [4] Financial Data and Market Trends - October's credit data was weak, aligning with the third-quarter monetary policy report indicating a decrease in indirect financing ratios; a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is expected to boost credit demand [8] - The bond market has seen a narrow fluctuation in yields, with a total issuance of 98 bonds amounting to 679.6 billion yuan during the reporting period, indicating an increase in both national and local special bond issuance [9] - The market outlook suggests that while inflation data has shown some improvement, credit data remains weak, and the bond market is currently desensitized to fundamental data [10]

Core Insights - Japan's economy contracted in Q3 due to weak domestic demand and U.S. tariffs, but the contraction was less severe than expected, primarily supported by stable corporate capital expenditure [1][6] - The GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.8%, better than the anticipated 2.5% decline, contrasting with a 1.6% growth in Q2 [1] - The report highlights the fragility of Japan's economic recovery and complicates the Bank of Japan's policy path [1] Economic Performance - Q3 GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the expected decline of 0.6%, while the previous quarter saw a growth of 0.5% [1] - Private consumption, accounting for about half of the economy, stagnated, and net exports became a drag on growth due to global economic slowdown and trade tensions [1][6] Capital Expenditure - Despite overall economic headwinds, corporate investment showed resilience, with capital expenditure increasing by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the market consensus of 0.3% [6] - Strong corporate investment, particularly in local infrastructure, helped mitigate the impact of weak performance in other economic areas [6] Policy Implications - The economic report presents challenges for policymakers, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 2.8% year-on-year increase in the GDP deflator [7] - The contraction in the economy limits the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy, leading to reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes [7] - Attention is shifting towards potential fiscal stimulus measures from the new Prime Minister, with reports suggesting a possible 17 trillion yen economic revitalization plan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current rally in the consumer sector is driven by a combination of "high-low switching" and fundamental recovery, with the sector entering a configuration window characterized by "safety margin + profit matching" [1][9][16]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent A-share market shows a clear divergence, with traditional consumer sectors rising while tech stocks struggle [1]. - The consumer sector is experiencing a rotation and rebound due to multiple factors, including economic recovery expectations, relatively low valuations, and supportive policies [9][10]. - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of related companies [11][12]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector's valuation is at historical lows, making it attractive for investment, especially as policies continue to support consumption [17][18]. - The consumer index's PE-TTM is approximately 19.7X, around the 30th percentile of its three-year historical valuation, indicating a potential for recovery [18]. - The sector is seen as having significant safety margins and profit matching, making it a favorable time for allocation [16][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the consumer sector is expected to transition from a structural market to a more comprehensive market, driven by economic stabilization and improved consumer sentiment [20][22]. - The focus is on both traditional and new consumption sectors, with an emphasis on companies that can adapt and innovate in response to changing consumer demands [21][22]. - Emerging consumption trends, such as cultural and technological influences, are anticipated to drive growth in the coming years [22][23]. Group 4: Risk Factors - The main risks include macroeconomic conditions and the effectiveness of policy measures to stimulate consumption [25][28]. - Competition in the consumer sector is intensifying, leading to potential price wars that could erode profit margins [25][26]. - The need for high-quality company selection is emphasized, as the market becomes increasingly reliant on individual company performance rather than broad sector trends [28][29].

【导读】基金经理解读大消费板块投资机会 ：本轮行情更多是由于"高低切换"， 板块目前处于"安全边际+盈利匹配"配置窗口 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 近期，A股市场呈现出明显的分化格局，以科技股为主的"双创"指数走势疲软，传统消费板块逆 市 上涨。消费板块的强势表现引发市场对 年底风格切换的广泛关注。 大消费如期上攻，风格切换来了吗？此轮行情是短暂"高低切换"还是逻辑反转？是否具有持续性？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 嘉实基金大消费研究总监 吴越 国泰消费优选基金经理 李海 永赢基金权益投资部基金经理 蒋卫华 方正富邦基金首席投资官 汤戈 在受访基金经理看来，受益于经济复苏预期强化、估值相对底部、政策密集落地等多重因素驱动，消费板块迎来轮动补涨机会。 大家认为，本轮行情既有"高低切换"的原因，也有行业基本面触底回升的原因。现阶段"高低切换"的特征更为明显，未来逻辑反转的持续 性有赖于业绩基本面持续改善。 中银内核驱动、中银港股通消费基金经理 杨亦然 不过，在大家看来，当前消费板块的性价比突出，估值盈利比或更具安全边际，已进入配置窗口期，"旧"消费转守为攻，"新"消费优中选 优。尤其2026年板块有望从结构 ...

市场人士强调，权益资产波动属正常现象，明确长期投资目标有助于保持投资定力。随着经济复苏态势 巩固，投资者宜以更从容心态应对市场起伏，通过科学配置实现资产保值增值。 数据显示，10月CPI与PPI同比增速双双回升，印证经济基本面持续修复。观察盘面可以发现，多数日 内波动均能实现自我修复，过度关注短期波动反而可能加剧焦虑情绪。专家建议投资者保持政策跟踪， 重点关注保民生、促消费等经济复苏相关举措。 对于长期投资者，建议采取三方面策略：首先实施定期定额投资，利用市场波动摊薄成本；其次配置黄 金等对冲资产，降低组合相关性风险；第三增加存款、国债等固收类产品比重，构建稳健投资基石。工 薪阶层可通过自动化定投工具，在控制风险的同时把握市场机遇。 近期A股市场呈现震荡上行态势，沪指突破4000点后展开多空拉锯，在反复波动中不断刷新阶段新高。 市场分析指出，投资者可通过优化策略应对当前行情特征。 ...