【导读】新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00% 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！来一起关注海外市场降息情况。 在7月经济出现停滞迹象后， 新西兰 再度启动宽松周期。 8月20日，新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至3.00%，符合市场预期。 自2024年8月以来，新西兰联储已将利率下调了250个基点，以支撑脆弱的经济复苏，通胀率在1%至3%的目标区间内，为政策制定者提 供了降息的空间。 决议显示，委员会投票决定将利率下调25个基点或50个基点，最终以4票对2票的多数同意将利率降低25个基点至3%。 货币政策声明提到，随着经济中存在闲置产能、国内通胀压力下降，预计到2026年年中，整体通胀将回落至约2%的目标中点。 消息公布后，新西兰 元兑美元短线 跳水，跌幅达1.2%。 新西兰两年期掉期利率跌近3%，为2022年初以来的最低水平。 此前 机构调查的23位经济学家中，有22位 预计 新西兰联储政策委员会将于周三下调官方现金利率25个基点至3%，仅1 位预测利率不会 变化。 此次 降息使 得新西兰 基准利率降至 近 三年来的低点。新西兰联储上月维持利率不变，以评估通胀的上升，政策制定者把注意力转向疲弱 的经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].

金融研究 2025年8月19日 星期二 金融期货早班车 资金面：公开市场操作方面，央行货币投放 2,665 亿元，货币回笼 1,120 亿元，净投放 1,545 亿元。 交易策略：风偏上行叠加经济复苏预期，建议中长线 T、TL 逢高套保。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：8 月 18 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.85%，报收 3728.03 点；深成 指上涨 1.73%，报收 11835.57 点；创业板指上涨 2.84%，报收 2606.2 点；科创 50 指数上涨 2.14%， 报收 1124.82 点。市场成交 28,091 亿元，较前日增加 5,363 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+4.46%)， 综合(+3.43%)，计算机(+3.33%)涨幅居前；房地产(-0.46%)，石油石化(-0.1%)，有色金属(+0.14%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,034/165/1,220。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 54、-191、-68、205 亿元，分别变动-70、-9 ...

1. Report General Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), He Zhuoqiao (Macroeconomics and Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Macroeconomics, Treasury Bonds, and Container Shipping) [3] 2. Market Review and Future Outlook 2.1 Market Review - On August 18, the Wind All - A index rose 1.40% with over 4000 stocks rising. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed better, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closing up 1.52% and 1.69% respectively, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 closed up 0.21% and 0.88% respectively. Index futures underperformed the spot market, with IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts rising 0.78%, 0.31%, 0.72%, and 1.13% respectively [6] 2.2 Future Outlook - International: US and Russian leaders met in Alaska on the 15th, the meeting was "fruitful" but no agreement on a cease - fire in Ukraine was reached. Russia said the US had given up escalating pressure on Russia, and the key outcome was that the responsibility for cease - fire negotiations lies with Ukraine and Europe [8] - Domestic: July economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. Industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.1 percentage points, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, also with a 1.1 - percentage - point narrowing. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate showed a marginal decline. However, market expectations for economic recovery remain strong, especially for corporate performance repair after the "anti - involution" policy [8] - Market sentiment remained high. A - share trading volume reached 2.81 trillion yuan on August 18, a new high since October 9, 2024. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the Shenzhen Component Index exceeded last October's high. The margin trading balance continued to break through, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the index remained good. The dumbbell strategy is maintained, with SSE 50 and CSI 1000 expected to perform better [9] 3. Industry News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration released the second - quarter 2025 insurance industry capital utilization data. As of the end of the second quarter, the balance of insurance company funds utilization exceeded 36 trillion yuan, a 17.4% year - on - year increase. Property insurance companies' funds utilization balance was 2.35 trillion yuan, and life insurance companies' was 32.6 trillion yuan. The balance of life and property insurance companies' investment in stocks and securities investment funds was 4.73 trillion yuan, a 25% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [28]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high of 3745.94 points, marking a 1% increase during the day [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a nearly 4% increase, breaking through the 2600-point mark [1] Market Drivers - Multiple positive factors, including cyclical resilience, policy expectations, and market rotation, are driving the upward momentum in the Chinese stock market [1][3] - Ample liquidity in the market and support from national policies have alleviated investor concerns [3] - The recent trend indicates a recovery in corporate earnings, with an average profit growth of 11% reported by 31 companies in the Hang Seng Index [3] Investor Sentiment - The stock market's recovery has boosted investor enthusiasm for trading in the Chinese capital market, with a 20% rebound since the sell-off triggered by US-China trade tensions in April [4] - Retail investors are shifting record savings from the bond market to the stock market, supported by government policies that enhance market confidence [4] - The recent positive sentiment in the stock market suggests a quiet recovery in the over 10 trillion USD market [4] Economic Outlook - The current bull market is characterized by strong policy support, a favorable funding environment, and sustained foreign capital inflows [5] - The focus of market investments is shifting towards core areas of economic transformation, particularly in finance and technology sectors [5] - The humanoid robotics sector is gaining attention, with potential applications expanding as intelligent systems improve [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "seesaw" effect, with the bond market declining while the A-share market is rising, indicating a shift in capital flows [1][3] - The bond market previously thrived due to economic slowdown and stock market volatility, but recent policy measures have strengthened expectations for economic recovery, making stock market returns more attractive [3][4] - The recent rise in A-shares is driven by solid sectors such as consumer recovery and leading manufacturing companies, reflecting a fundamental-based investment approach rather than speculative trading [3][4] Group 2 - For long-term investors, understanding the overarching logic of economic recovery and corporate profit improvement is crucial for identifying mid-term opportunities in the stock market [4] - The bond market should not be dismissed entirely; quality bonds can still serve as a stabilizing asset in a diversified portfolio [5] - Investment strategies should adapt to market conditions, balancing between stocks for growth and bonds for stability, while avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [5]

Report Summary on Financial Futures 1. Market Performance - On August 15, A-share's four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83% to 3696.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.6% to 11634.67 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.61% to 2534.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.43% to 1101.29 points. Market trading volume was 2272.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.92%), non-bank finance (+3.16%), and power equipment (+2.85%) led the gains; banks (-1.46%), food and beverage (+0.04%), and media (+0.51%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4623/155/641 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 12.3 billion, - 10 billion, - 18.7 billion, and 16.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +37.8 billion, +18.9 billion, - 24.9 billion, and - 31.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 31.3, 37.57, - 7.05, and - 13.52 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 4.23%, - 5.5%, 1.61%, and 4.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 70%, 44%, 76%, and 97% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond (250006.IB), the yield change was +0bps, the corresponding net basis was 0.03, and the IRR was 1.15%; for the 5 - year (240020.IB), the yield change was +1bps, the net basis was - 0.001, and the IRR was 1.49%; for the 10 - year (220010.IB), the yield change was +1.25bps, the net basis was - 0.027, and the IRR was 1.78%; for the 30 - year (210005.IB), the yield change was +1.75bps, the net basis was - 0.062, and the IRR was 2% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 238 billion yuan and withdrew 122 billion yuan, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the manufacturing, real estate, social activity, infrastructure, and import - export sectors are analyzed. Positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening, and zero scores indicate little change [13][14].

Group 1 - The latest report from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [1] - In June, GDP growth accelerated to 0.4%, doubling previous forecasts, highlighting the economic resilience amid challenging conditions [1] - Consumer spending rebounded strongly, driven by the services sector, while manufacturing output also unexpectedly improved, providing a buffer against economic challenges [4] Group 2 - The unexpected economic resilience complicates monetary policy decisions, with inflation pressures easing on one hand and stronger-than-expected growth raising the threshold for policy adjustments on the other [8] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts this year have diminished, with rate futures indicating borrowing costs may stabilize at 3.5% next year [8] - The UK labor market shows mixed signals, with job losses smaller than initially anticipated since last autumn's fiscal adjustments, supporting consumer spending but raising concerns for monetary policy shifts [8] Group 3 - Retail sector performance serves as a key indicator of economic health, with John Lewis reporting a 12% increase in home goods sales and a 9% rise in fashion sales, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [10] - However, the British Retail Consortium's survey revealed a significant drop in retail sales balance from +24 to -6 in July, the largest decline since last winter, suggesting that the recovery may not be stable [10] - As the third quarter begins, the UK faces a delicate turning point, with positive growth data tempered by underlying challenges that may not be immediately visible [10]

一方面，之前出台的房地产政策组合拳已经逐步显效，但也有减弱之势，要想保持楼市成交量继续回升，需要继续落实好此前的政策，如继续降低首付比 例、下调房贷利率等，可以有效刺激刚需和改善性购房需求释放，带动市场活跃度提升。 对于房地产止跌回稳的趋势已经很明朗，但短期的波动也在意料之中，只是何时会止跌呢？7月份房价涨跌情况，已经毫无悬念，来，咱们看看官方是怎么 说的。 8月15日早上，7月70个大中城市房价波动数据显示，70城房价普遍环比下降，但同比降幅有所收窄。一线城市房价格环比下降0.2%，二手房价格下降 1.0%。 新房环比方面，北京持平，上海上涨0.3%，广州和深圳分别下降0.3%和0.6%。70城中只有6个城市环比上涨，较2025年6月份14城减少8城。二手房环比方 面，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.1%、0.9%、1.0%和0.9%。 由此可见，现在楼市止跌回稳的压力依然非常大。 7-8月份是房地产市场传统淡季，市场仍处于调整阶段，7月数据比6月还差一些，似乎也不难理解。但也有值得注意的信号，一线城市新房市场呈现止跌企 稳迹象，二、三线城市二手房市场率先释放边际改善信号，这也意味着未来房地产止跌回稳的大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend shows a rapid rotation between value and growth stocks, reminiscent of the market dynamics observed from 2013 to 2017, with potential for various sectors to experience upward momentum [4][5][6][26]. Market Performance - The overall market closed higher today, returning to a rating of 4.5 stars, with small and mid-cap stocks showing more significant gains compared to large-cap stocks [1][2][3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has been relatively sluggish, experiencing a decline today, despite having seen three waves of increases since last September [8][9][10]. Historical Comparison - The current market conditions are compared to the period from 2013 to 2017, where the A-share market faced a bear market due to poor fundamentals and declining corporate profits [13][28]. - The introduction of stimulus policies in 2014 led to a significant recovery in the market, particularly in the financial sector, which drove the overall market upward [14][15]. - The years 2016-2017 saw a recovery in the fundamentals of listed companies, leading to a slow bull market for value stocks, while growth stocks experienced a downturn [21][24]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to follow a similar trajectory to 2013-2014, with a potential recovery in corporate fundamentals anticipated in the latter half of 2024, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29][30]. - The first wave of the upcoming market rally is likely to be led by the financial sector, with small-cap and technology stocks expected to follow suit in 2025 [31][32]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach remains consistent: buy during market dips and sell during peaks, while maintaining patience for optimal exit opportunities [45][47]. - The prolonged bear market from 2022 to 2024 has provided ample opportunities for accumulating quality assets through systematic investment [46].