Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upper limit of the stock index is limited due to the decline in trading volume and the weak economic recovery in China. It is recommended to add positions after a pullback [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 7, the Wind All A index fluctuated after opening and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.03%. Over 60% of individual stocks rose. Among the index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.19% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.24%, indicating better performance of small and medium - cap stocks. The performance of index futures was generally weaker than that of the spot [6] 1.2 Outlook - Externally, the 90 - day suspension period is about to end, and attention should be paid to the impact of US news on the market. The expectation of a rate cut in July has faded, and the market expects the rate - cut process to resume in September. Domestically, the economy is still in a weak recovery state, expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year. The export data in the first half showed resilience, but there is high uncertainty in the second half, which may drag down the economy. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the manufacturing industry is facing intensified competition. Domestic economic growth requires further stimulation of domestic demand and accelerated implementation of infrastructure investment. Attention should also be paid to whether policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] 2. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All A index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][16][17] 3. Industry News - On the morning of July 7, Trump announced on his social account that the US would start sending tariff letters and/or agreements to other countries at 12:00 noon EST (00:00 Beijing time on July 8). Trump signed tariff notice letters to 12 countries on Friday, outlining different tariff rates for goods exported to the US. The new tariff rates may range from 10% to 20%, up to 60% - 70% [30]

Group 1 - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations, indicating a weak economic recovery trend [1] - The production index and new orders index have returned to the expansion zone, with the production index reaching a seven-month high [1] - The cautious procurement behavior of enterprises due to demand uncertainty and active destocking actions have kept the price index low, but overall economic recovery appears more certain [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Commerce announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors, allowing a 10% tax credit on profits reinvested in China for investments held for over five years from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028 [2] - This policy aims to reduce tax burdens for foreign investors, enhance investment returns, and attract reinvestment in high-tech and green energy sectors [2] - The five-year holding requirement is expected to stabilize capital flows and reduce market volatility, complementing previous tax exemptions for foreign investments in domestic bond markets [2] Group 3 - The expansion of QDII quotas signals three key messages: promoting bilateral financial openness, alleviating one-way capital flow pressure, and guiding institutions in global asset allocation [3] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued new guidelines for listing companies, removing the 30% fundraising limit for companies classified as "light asset, high R&D input," enhancing financing flexibility for R&D-intensive firms [3] - This new regulation is expected to optimize capital market structure and direct more funds towards innovative sectors, particularly benefiting strategic emerging industries [3] Group 4 - On July 1, A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to 3457.75 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% to 2147.92 points [4] - The top-performing sectors included comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and banking, while computer, retail, and communication sectors experienced declines [4] - A total of 2551 stocks rose, while 2421 stocks fell, indicating a diverse market response [4] Group 5 - The market turnover was reported at 14967.62 billion, showing a decline from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance increased to 18504.52 billion [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index rose after opening and then declined, indicating significant upward pressure. With a quiet news background and the domestic economy in a weak recovery, the stock index lacks sufficient positive drivers and is unlikely to break through the pressure line to form an upward trend. The latest data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size have turned negative year - on - year, affected by tariffs and prices, and also indicating insufficient effective demand. Amid weak economic data, expectations of supportive policies have increased, providing support for the stock index. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 420.50 million yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined on increased volume, while IC and IM rose on increased volume [4]. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will allocate the third batch of funds for the consumer goods trade - in program in July. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and from January to May, they decreased by 1.1% [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the main contract's intraday percentage change, trading volume, trading volume change compared to the previous period, open interest, and open interest change compared to the previous period for IF, IH, IC, and IM [7]. Spot Market Observation - The table presents the Shanghai Composite Index's percentage change, Shenzhen Component Index's percentage change, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the trading volume change compared to the previous period [8]. Other Data Presentations - There are charts showing the ratio of margin trading turnover to A - share trading turnover, cross - variety strength comparisons (IH/IC, IC/IM, IH/IM, IF/IH, IF/IM, IF/IC), volume - weighted average premium/discount rates and closing prices of various indices (IF, IH, IC, IM), and price - to - earnings ratios of various indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) [9][10][11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing limited upward elasticity, and investors need to remain cautious due to internal and external pressures leading to short-term adjustments [3][11]. Market Performance - During the week of June 16-20, the A-share market showed a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51% to close at 3360 points, and the Wind All A Index down by 1.07% [4]. - Among the 31 primary industries, only the banking and telecommunications sectors saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and social services faced significant declines [5]. - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 2.03% [5]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a decline in fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first five months of the year, attributed to factors such as falling PPI and a slowdown in land sales [7][9]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, while infrastructure investment was at 5.6%, contrasting with a 10.7% decline in real estate investment [9]. - Retail sales for the same period increased by 6.4%, driven by initiatives like trade-in programs and tourism [10]. External Influences - Ongoing international issues, including U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are affecting investor sentiment and market performance [10]. - The upcoming policy window in July is critical, with expectations for potential tariff adjustments and trade discussions [10]. Future Outlook - Despite concerns over domestic demand resilience, there is a high expectation for policies to stabilize the capital market, suggesting that while short-term adjustments may occur, significant declines are unlikely [11]. - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is essential for economic strength, with a potential fiscal stimulus expected post-August [13]. - In the current market environment, defensive stocks, particularly those with solid fundamentals in the new consumption sector, are favored, while technology stocks with performance metrics are also seen as attractive [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock index showed a slight oscillation today, with a minor increase in the trading volume of the two markets. Currently, there are significant overseas uncertainties, and the economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state. The impact of tariffs may persist, and the economic outlook is weak, which restricts the upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, there is significant resistance to the continuous upward movement of the index. However, the expectation of policy support has risen, and there is still sufficient support at the market bottom. Attention should be paid to the Lujiazui Forum from June 18th to 19th, where several financial policies will be announced. It is expected that the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with small and medium - cap stock indexes closing higher and large - cap stock indexes closing lower. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.631 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM increased in volume, while the other varieties increased in price with reduced volume [4]. Important Information - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the United States have basically reached an agreement framework. - The deadline for Trump's tariffs is approaching, and the EU is said to have refused to compromise and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. - There has been no tariff increase yet. The US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year in May, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.3934 | 4.5745 | 6.7708 | 15.899 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8191 | - 0.8228 | - 1.2832 | - 2.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.5571 | 8.2865 | 21.6406 | 32.6593 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.5578 | - 0.1138 | - 0.2651 | 0.2007 | [7] Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.11 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.81 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 12717.69 | | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 163.10 | [8]

Group 1: Price Performance Characteristics - In May, the overall CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%[6] - Consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year for four consecutive months, while service prices rose by 0.5%, marking three months of positive growth[8] - Agricultural and energy prices declined, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[14] Group 2: Future Price Trends - Negative price growth is expected to persist until the end of Q3, primarily due to ongoing downward pressure on pork prices[20] - Current consumption policies have limited impact on prices, which may be offset by fluctuations in energy prices[21] - The overall CPI is unlikely to follow core inflation upward unless the downward pressures on agricultural and energy prices are alleviated[22] Group 3: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could affect future price trends[25]

Core Viewpoint - The economy is continuing to improve, with March manufacturing PMI at 50.5, service PMI at 50.3, and construction PMI at 53.4, all showing month-on-month increases [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.3 points from the previous month, while service PMI also rose by 0.3 points, and construction PMI saw a 0.7 point increase [1][4]. - The export order index has shown resilience, rising slightly, indicating external demand remains stable despite tariff pressures [1][5]. - Small enterprise PMI improved significantly by 3.3 points in March, reflecting better financial conditions [1][5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.3, indicating relative strength compared to previous periods [5]. Group 2: Recovery Characteristics - Despite some positive indicators, the overall data reflects a weak recovery, with manufacturing PMI lower than the previous year's value of 50.8 and below the historical average of 0.7 points for March [2][5]. - Service sector performance is also lagging, with March values lower than seasonal expectations, showing a cumulative decline compared to similar periods in previous years [5][6]. - The construction sector's performance is being hindered by insufficient support from infrastructure investments, as indicated by the lower demand from this sector [2][7]. Group 3: Price Indices and Employment - Both price indices showed a month-on-month decline, with expectations for March PPI indicating slight negative growth [10][12]. - Employment indicators in manufacturing, services, and construction sectors showed a decline in March, although the overall trend since September has been upward [12][13]. - The BCI enterprise hiring index also decreased, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring amid structural changes in labor demand [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the economic trajectory in 2025 may resemble that of 2016, with gradual improvements expected in consumer spending, local investment, and price indices [12][13]. - The overall economic growth is anticipated to experience fluctuations throughout the year, with a focus on validating the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth [14].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the financial market outlook for March 2025, focusing on credit and social financing data, as well as the bond market performance and economic conditions in China. Core Insights and Arguments - **March 2025 Financial Data Predictions**: New loans are expected to reach CNY 3.15 trillion, up from CNY 3.1 trillion in the same month last year. Social financing is also anticipated to increase, with last year's figure at CNY 3.3 trillion [2][3] - **Credit Demand Outlook for 2025**: Overall credit demand is expected to be weak but better than in 2024, supported by increased urban investment financing and a recovery in mortgage loans, which may exceed CNY 1 trillion [3][5] - **Urban Renewal Plan**: The inclusion of residential areas built before 2000 in the urban renewal plan is expected to generate significant credit demand, providing support for the credit market [3][6] - **Bond Market Expectations**: The bond market in April 2025 is expected to perform similarly to January, with a significant rebound in social financing growth due to lower government bond issuance last year [3][7] - **Economic Cycle Outlook**: The economic cycle is projected to be a weak recovery over the next couple of years, with a challenging investment environment and risks of investment failures [3][8] - **Current Funding Conditions**: Current funding prices are between 1.8% and 1.9%. Recommendations include reducing positions if the ten-year government bond yield falls below 1.8% and extending duration if it exceeds 1.9% [3][10] - **Credit Market Dynamics**: The credit market is not expected to see a trend-driven bull market, with a focus on five-year capital bonds from major state-owned banks. Investment is recommended if yields exceed 2.3% [3][11] - **Capital Bond Issuance Strategy**: Banks should increase capital bond issuance if the cost is below the rates for three to five-year deposits, while being cautious if yields exceed 2.3% [3][12] - **Market Influencing Factors for April**: Attention should be paid to the issuance of special government bonds, which could impact long-term government bonds and market dynamics [3][16] - **Impact of CCB's Capital Increase**: The capital increase by China Construction Bank (CCB) is expected to influence stock prices and the supply of special government bonds, indicating a potential market shift [3][17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Consumer Loan Rates**: Consumer loan rates are expected to remain above 3%, reflecting the central bank's guidance to stabilize banks' net interest margins [2] - **Economic Data for Q1 2025**: Despite mixed economic data in January and February, the nominal GDP growth rate is expected to exceed 5.0% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable economic environment [3][9] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to hold credit bonds for about a year to capture interest income rather than engaging in frequent trading due to competitive market conditions [3][14] - **Long-term Market Outlook**: The bond market is characterized as a small bear market, with opportunities arising from temporary adjustments rather than long-term trends [3][15]