Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance [1][2]. Production and Supply - Agricultural production remains stable with an increase in autumn grain area and yield, suggesting a promising harvest for the year [2]. - The accommodation and catering industry saw a production index growth of 3.9% year-on-year, accelerated by the overlap of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2]. Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales related to the replacement of old consumer goods [2]. - From January to October, the retail sales of services increased by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, but the actual workload of investment showed slight growth when excluding price factors [3]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.6% of total investment [3]. Employment and Prices - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October [3]. Structural Adjustments and New Growth Drivers - The economy is undergoing structural adjustments with significant growth in new driving forces, including a 19.7% year-on-year increase in investment in the aerospace and aviation equipment manufacturing sector [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.2% of total retail sales, reflecting the expansion of new consumption formats [4]. Emerging Industries - The added value of the digital industry manufacturing sector increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components growing by 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively [5]. Economic Outlook - Despite facing risks and challenges, the long-term supportive conditions for economic growth remain unchanged, with a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [6]. - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, placing it among the top global economies [6]. Policy Measures - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, is expected to enhance economic momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada anticipates a slow economic recovery, requiring a longer time frame than usual to return to faster growth rates [1] Economic Growth Projections - The projected economic growth rate for Canada is 1.1% for this year, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.6% for 2027 [1] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariffs are negatively affecting key sectors such as steel, aluminum, and manufacturing, leading to subdued economic growth [1] - The economy is undergoing a structural adjustment, necessitating industries to pivot and invest in new areas, which will take time [1]

Core Points - The Vietnamese government aims for a GDP growth of over 10% and a per capita GDP of $5,400 to $5,500 by 2026, with an average CPI increase of around 4.5% and a reduction in poverty rates by approximately 1% to 1.5% [1][2] Group 1: Economic Goals - The report outlines 15 key indicators for economic and social development, including a target GDP growth rate of over 10% and a per capita GDP between $5,400 and $5,500 [1] - The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to rise by about 4.5%, while labor productivity is expected to increase by around 8% [1] Group 2: Major Tasks and Measures - The government will prioritize growth, maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, and ensure budget balance, with public debt and budget deficits kept within specified limits [2] - There will be a focus on industrialization, modernization, and economic restructuring [2] - Strategic infrastructure projects will be prioritized, including the development of railways, highways, and international airports, as well as investments in 5G and semiconductor manufacturing [2] - Emphasis will be placed on high-quality talent development and cultural advancement to improve living standards [2] - The government will actively address climate change, enhance resource management, and strengthen national defense and security [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Black Metal Research Team: Researchers include Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Conditions on October 20 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Trading Volume**: RB2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton with a -0.03% change, trading 1,232,540 lots; HC2601 closed at 3215 yuan/ton with a -0.12% change, trading 539,570 lots; SS2512 closed at 12595 yuan/ton with a -0.16% change, trading 124,780 lots [5] - **Position Changes**: RB2601's open interest increased by 1,609 lots; HC2601's increased by 7,152 lots [5] - **Fund Flows**: RB2601 had a 0.15 - billion - yuan inflow; HC2601 had a 0.28 - billion - yuan inflow [5] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price Changes**: Some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices declined. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Hefei dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil prices in Zhengzhou dropped 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities, 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - Rebar 2601 contract's daily KDJ indicator showed a golden cross, and hot - rolled coil 2601's was close to a golden cross. Both contracts' daily MACD green bars narrowed [8] 4. Market Outlook 4.1 News and Policy - Trump's attitude towards China - US trade tariffs softened, which eased market concerns. He will meet with China in about two weeks and is optimistic about the negotiation. The US Treasury Secretary also said the meeting may lead to a broader trade agreement [9][10] 4.2 Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: In the past 6 weeks, the weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly but remained high; weekly demand rebounded from the lowest since late February but was lower than the end - September level; social inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly from the highest since mid - April [10] - **Raw Materials**: In the past 2 weeks, iron ore inventories of 247 steel mills and imported sintered powder ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills dropped significantly; in the past 4 weeks, Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 2.2% on top of a 3.7% increase in the previous 4 weeks, and arrivals increased by 11.9% after a 1.4% decrease in the previous 4 weeks; coke profit was briefly positive and then turned negative, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1; steel mills reduced coke inventories after the holiday; coking coal prices remained firm [11] 4.3 Forecast - Steel demand has seasonal improvement, but trade conflicts remain uncertain. Steel futures prices are expected to be more volatile, with a possible first - decline - then - rebound trend. Attention should be paid to market expectations before China - US trade negotiations, raw material prices after most steel mills' profits turn negative, and the impact of low temperatures on terminal demand [11] 5. Industry News - **Economic Growth**: The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the Q3 GDP growth slowdown to international trade protectionism and domestic economic structural adjustment [12] - **Policy Adjustment**: The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration adjusted the VAT policy for wind power generation and nuclear power [13] - **Production Data**: From January to September 2025, national coke production was 377.16 million tons (up 3.5% YoY), pig iron production was 645.86 million tons (down 1.1% YoY), crude steel production was 746.25 million tons (down 2.9% YoY), and steel production was 1.10385 billion tons (up 5.4% YoY). In September, national coal production was 411.51 million tons (down 1.8% YoY), and industrial power generation was 826.2 billion kWh (up 1.5% YoY) [13] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan (down 13.9% YoY), construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters (down 9.4% YoY), new commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters (down 5.5% YoY), and sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan (down 7.9% YoY) [13] - **Railway Transport**: In the first three quarters of 2025, national railway freight volume was 3.912 billion tons (up 2.8% YoY) [14] - **Corporate Performance**: Baotou Steel's semi - annual asset - liability ratio in 2025 decreased by 0.42 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and financial expenses decreased by 6.29% YoY [14] - **International Trade**: In September 2025, China exported 6.4 million tons of steel plates (down 6.1% YoY) and 1.68 million tons of steel bars (up 25.0% YoY). In September, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland in Australia was 48.5673 million tons (down 0.48% YoY, up 9.58% MoM) [14] 6. Data Overview - The report presents various steel - related data charts, including prices, production, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [16][17][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the steady progress of China's economy as reflected in the third quarter reports, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year and a resilient economic structure amid external challenges [3][4][9]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a total economic increment of 39,679 billion yuan, which is 1,368 billion yuan more than the previous year [4][9]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable compared to the first half of the year, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% [4][9]. - The total import and export volume reached a historical high, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the third quarter [10]. High-Quality Development - The proportion of value added from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing reached 16.7% and 35.9%, respectively, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [5]. - Non-fossil energy consumption increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points, reflecting progress in green and low-carbon transformation [5]. Economic Resilience - Despite external pressures and domestic demand challenges, China's economy grew by 5.2%, showcasing its resilience compared to other major economies [5][10]. - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating improved supplier delivery times [8][10]. Policy Impact - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has stabilized the economy and provided support for long-term growth [6][11]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds were allocated to stimulate consumer demand, contributing to a 53.5% growth rate in final consumption expenditure [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter's GDP growth of 4.8% remains higher than most major economies, with favorable conditions for achieving annual targets [9][10]. - Positive indicators, such as rising industrial product prices and increased consumer activity during holidays, suggest ongoing economic vitality [10].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in the first three quarters of 2023 shows a stable growth trend, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year, indicating resilience and progress despite external challenges [2][5][10]. Economic Growth - The GDP for the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a total economic increment of 39,679 billion yuan, which is 1,368 billion yuan more than the previous year [2][9]. - In the third quarter, GDP growth was 4.8% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%, reflecting a slight recovery from the second quarter [1][9]. Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters remained stable at 5.2%, consistent with the first half of the year [2][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% [2][10]. International Trade - The external trade demonstrated strong resilience, with the total import and export volume reaching a historical high for the same period, and a year-on-year growth of 6.0% in the third quarter [2][10]. - Foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.3 trillion USD, with a stable appreciation of the RMB [2][10]. Industrial Performance - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the total industrial added value, respectively [4]. - Key physical indicators showed stable growth, with industrial electricity generation increasing by 1.6% year-on-year [2][4]. Policy Impact - The proactive macroeconomic policies have effectively supported economic stability and long-term growth, with a contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reaching 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points from the previous year [6][9]. - Investment in equipment and tools rose by 14.0% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall investment growth [6][7]. Future Outlook - The economic growth in the first three quarters lays a solid foundation for achieving annual targets, with new productive forces expected to create new growth points [10][11]. - Positive indicators, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) showing continuous recovery, suggest ongoing economic resilience and vitality [10][11].

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline in growth rate from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.8% in Q3 [3][5] - The slowdown in GDP growth is attributed to weakening consumption, investment, and real estate market data [3][5] Consumption and Investment Trends - From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,658.77 billion yuan, increasing by 4.5%, a decline from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth this year, with significant declines in real estate investment by 13.9% [3][19] - Private fixed asset investment also saw a decline of 3.1%, reflecting ongoing issues with private sector confidence [19][20] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.2% year-on-year from January to September, with a slight increase to 6.5% in September compared to August [4] - The construction activity index for the building industry remained below the threshold, indicating weak growth in investment-related activities [14] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9% from January to September, with new construction areas declining significantly [18] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [18] Policy Outlook - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for policy intervention, with expectations for increased fiscal and monetary support to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy [21][22] - Recommendations include enhancing consumer demand through various policies, supporting the real estate market, and maintaining a stable monetary policy [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth of China in the first three quarters of 2023 reached 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, indicating a stable economic development despite a slight decline in growth rate in the third quarter [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, showing a slight decline compared to the first half of the year [4]. - The service sector's added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, supported by the acceleration of artificial intelligence applications and increased consumer demand during the summer [4]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a notable decline in growth rate in September, marking the lowest monthly growth rate of the year at 3% [4][5]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and real estate development investment declining by 13.9% [5]. Trade and Exports - The total import and export value in RMB increased by 4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% [6]. - The resilience of exports has been maintained despite external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures [6]. Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Recent economic stabilization policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, are expected to stimulate investment significantly [7][8]. - The implementation of these financial tools could potentially drive infrastructure investment growth by 3-4 percentage points annually over the next three years [8]. - The overall economic growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters provides a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [9].

Group 1 - The current economic recovery in China is focusing on demand-side strategies as a key breakthrough point [6][2] - 71% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for the third quarter will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 75% expect a growth rate of 4.8% to 5.1% for the entire year of 2025 [1] - 90% of economists believe that the real estate market is only experiencing a slowdown in decline and has not yet reached the bottom [1][15] Group 2 - The survey indicates that 33% of economists are concerned about employment pressure, 26% about external influences like finance and foreign trade, 23% about significant declines in housing prices, and 18% about debt risks [28] - The central government is implementing policies to address "involution" in various industries, including glass, cement, and steel, to improve product quality and reduce excess capacity [8][14] - The real estate market is seen as a critical support for stable growth, with recent policy adjustments signaling a strong commitment to stabilize the housing market [15][16] Group 3 - The impact of external uncertainties, particularly trade friction, is highlighted as a significant variable affecting economic operations [28] - Economists suggest that the recovery of the real estate market requires a coordinated effort from residents' income expectations, price signals, and the macroeconomic fundamentals [15][16] - The survey shows that 95% of economists expect the USD to RMB exchange rate to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.5 in 2025 [17]

Core Viewpoint - The former deputy governor of the central bank, Zhu Min, stated that housing prices are unlikely to rise significantly again, indicating a fundamental shift in the underlying support for housing prices in China [3]. Group 1: Population Structure - The birth rate in China has drastically declined, with the number of newborns dropping from 17.86 million in 2016 to an estimated 9.54 million in 2024, leading to a projected 50% reduction in annual new housing demand over the next 20 years [5]. - The willingness of the 25-30 age group to purchase homes has decreased from 65% to 48% over the past five years, indicating a shift in young people's attitudes towards home buying due to financial constraints [5]. Group 2: Land Finance - The revenue from land sales has halved, dropping from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.87 trillion yuan in 2024, disrupting the traditional cycle of land sales, developer purchases, and bank lending [7]. - The decline in housing demand has led to a halt in the entire real estate chain, affecting local governments, developers, and banks [7]. Group 3: Changing Perspectives - The traditional belief that "having a home means having a family" is being abandoned by younger generations, who are now reluctant to use their family's savings to purchase a home [9]. - The financial burden of homeownership is significant, with a typical family in Beijing needing to gather 1.5 million yuan for a down payment and facing monthly mortgage payments that consume a large portion of their income [9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - There are two conflicting views regarding housing prices: one argues that high prices suppress consumer spending, while the other fears that falling prices will reduce household wealth and consumption [10]. - The government's stance is clear in the "14th Five-Year Plan," which aims to curb real estate speculation and shift focus towards new economic drivers such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Based on international experiences, it is projected that China's housing market may bottom out around 2027, following a similar adjustment period seen in Japan and the U.S. [11]. - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai may stabilize by 2026, with expected annual price increases of 3%-5%, while smaller cities may face greater adjustment pressures [11]. Group 6: Long-term Transformation - The transition from viewing real estate as an investment to recognizing it as a necessity will involve challenges, including asset volatility for current homeowners and economic uncertainties for potential buyers [12]. - Ultimately, the goal is to ensure that home buying does not deplete family savings, allowing other industries to thrive and contributing to sustainable economic growth in China [12].