Interesting. Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE for our pre-built playbook is with us. Of course, we're waiting on the PCE at 10 a.m. Let's uh first just start big picture. How you feeling this Friday morning.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, we seem to be cruising into the end of the week with big events on the horizon. The Fed meeting that will be obviously the announcement.Do they cut. Will it be will there be dissents. Then Jerome Pal's press conference.Then we get the uh summary of economic pro projections that ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong, maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold previous long positions, and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes, the futures price fluctuates and declines, and the contango arbitrage window closes. In December, the market remains in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - In December, the supply exceeds demand, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. The price is under pressure. For futures, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, consider taking profits and closing positions [6]. Nickel - The nickel price has limited upward driving force. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [7]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [9]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina suppresses the price, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference operating range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production - cut scale and inventory inflection point [15]. Aluminum - It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory depletion [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and demand, the short - term price trend of casting aluminum alloy is strong, with the main contract reference operating range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap - aluminum supply and inventory depletion [17]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the downward price space is limited in the short term, but the upside elasticity is also limited. The main reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [19]. Copper - The copper price runs at a high level. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the price bottom. The main support range is 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 304700 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; LME 0 - 3 premium is 150.00 dollars/ton, up 21.95% [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 22.39% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 9550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 250.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month - on - month comparison, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of the front - month to the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 119900 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 230 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72%, and the net export volume decreased by 21.54% [9]. Alumina - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21710 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 2760 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [14][16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 is - 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in Southwest China is 21600 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22740 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the import profit and loss is - 5470 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and in October, imports decreased by 16.94% [19]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 88660 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.99% [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61% [20].

Core Insights - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings by major countries, particularly China, is gaining attention as it reflects a shift in global economic strategies [1][3]. Group 1: China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's U.S. Treasury holdings have decreased to approximately $1 trillion as of April this year, marking a historical low [3]. - In April alone, China significantly reduced its holdings by $46.2 billion, and from December last year to March this year, the total reduction reached $31.3 billion [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Reducing Holdings - The aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve since 2022 have raised concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, with the two-year Treasury yield rising to 3.22% and the ten-year yield reaching 3.31% [7]. - The total U.S. national debt has surged past $30 trillion, exceeding the country's GDP, raising alarms about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [7]. - High inflation rates in the U.S., which fluctuated from 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April and rebounded to 8.6% in May, are prompting countries to reduce their Treasury holdings to mitigate potential default risks [9]. Group 3: Global Trends in Treasury Holdings - Japan has also been reducing its U.S. Treasury holdings, selling $73.9 billion in March and another $14.9 billion in April, bringing its total holdings down to approximately $1.2 trillion [5]. - The UK reduced its holdings by $22.2 billion in April, contributing to a total reduction of $83.5 billion among China, Japan, and the UK in that month [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak performance, with inventory digestion remaining slow and market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude [3] Supply - In October, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants reached 3.5138 million tons, an increase of 87,100 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 2.54% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - November production is projected at 455,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.67% but a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] - Several steel mills have recently reduced production to maintain prices, primarily among 200 series steel plants, while 300 series output remains high, keeping supply pressure elevated [2] Inventory - Social inventory is not being depleted effectively, with warehouse receipts showing a downward trend [2] - As of November 21, social inventory of 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 492,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,400 tons [2] - On November 24, stainless steel futures inventory was 64,382 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,907 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market continues to show weak trends, with slow inventory digestion and increasing market caution among traders [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have concluded, reducing upward pressure on the dollar [3] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with slight declines in recent auction prices for nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia [3] - Nickel iron prices are under pressure, with new production lines coming online and excess supply becoming apparent, leading to a decline in prices below 900 yuan per nickel [3] - The chromium market is also weak, influenced by the low demand for stainless steel, resulting in increased supply pressure and declining raw material costs [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to continue weak oscillation, with a reference range for main prices set between 12,200 and 12,600 yuan [4]

Group 1 - The silver market experienced a rebound to $51.84 per ounce but faced selling pressure, dropping below the psychological level of $50 [1] - The price of silver is expected to test lower support levels, with potential declines towards $48.00 and $47.15-$47.10 regions if selling continues [4] - The market is currently in a cautious state, with analysts suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to the volatility [4] Group 2 - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about further interest rate cuts, indicating a cautious stance towards the December rate decision [2] - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson highlighted the challenges of future rate cuts, suggesting that the current policy is nearing a critical point of stimulating the economy [2] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee voiced strong concerns about high inflation, indicating he may not support a third consecutive rate cut in December [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed further rate cuts, citing high inflation and overly accommodative financial conditions as risks [2] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised alarms about the rising likelihood of significant declines in asset prices, reflecting concerns over financial stability [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping below $87,000 for the first time since April, with a single-day drop exceeding 4%, leading to massive liquidations in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - Bitcoin fell from a peak of $126,000 in early October to $87,000, marking a 30% decline over one and a half months [3]. - The cryptocurrency market has seen widespread losses, with Ethereum dropping over 5% and Dogecoin losing half its value, while many altcoins have experienced declines exceeding 30% [3]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates has shattered hopes for rate cuts, leading to increased selling pressure on high-risk assets like Bitcoin [5]. - Institutional investors and large holders (whales) have been selling off their Bitcoin holdings, with a total outflow of $2.6 billion from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs over five weeks, and whales selling over $20 billion in assets since September [5]. - High leverage in the crypto market, with a leverage ratio of 18, has exacerbated the situation, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations as prices fell below critical levels [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market sentiment is divided, with bearish analysts predicting further declines to $85,000 or even $80,000, while bullish analysts foresee potential rebounds to $200,000 or $130,000 depending on future economic conditions [7]. - The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has dropped to a low of 1.76, historically indicating a potential rebound when below 2, with some whales starting to accumulate in the $92,000 to $95,000 range [7]. Group 4: Overall Market Impact - The overall cryptocurrency market has seen a total market cap decline equivalent to three times the size of Coinbase in just 19 days, reflecting the severity of the downturn [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a strong opposition to further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to combat persistent inflation, which has led to a significant impact on gold prices and market expectations [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have been declining, currently trading around $4,056 after a brief spike to $4,132.66, influenced by a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed meeting minutes [1]. - The minutes revealed a split among Fed members, with many opposing a December rate cut, fearing it could entrench inflation expectations and undermine confidence in the 2% inflation target [3]. - The dollar index surged by 0.59% to a two-week high of 100.24, while U.S. Treasury yields also rose, further pressuring gold prices as higher real interest rates diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped from 48% to 32.8%, indicating a market shift away from expectations of imminent rate cuts [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a long upper shadow, closing below the $4,100 mark, suggesting potential resistance and a possible return to test the $4,000 level [6]. - Short-term movements show a retreat from a high of $4,245, with the market currently in a consolidation phase around the $4,000 level [6]. Trading Strategy - Aggressive traders may consider short positions below $4,100 with a stop loss at $4,113, targeting support levels around $4,030 to $4,000 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the strong rise of the US dollar index have put significant pressure on international gold prices, which have fallen from a peak of $2078.8 per ounce in March to a low of $1618.3 per ounce last month. However, contrary to previous trends, domestic gold stores in China are experiencing poor sales despite the drop in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Poor Domestic Gold Sales - The decline in international gold prices has not translated into significant price drops in domestic gold stores due to the limited decrease in domestic gold prices, which are affected by the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar [3][5]. - The majority of gold sold in domestic stores consists of jewelry, which includes high processing and design fees that do not adjust with international gold price fluctuations, resulting in minimal price reductions for consumers [3][5]. - Domestic demand for gold has decreased significantly due to the ongoing economic downturn and the impact of repeated COVID-19 outbreaks, leading consumers to cut back on non-essential spending, including gold jewelry [5][7]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The younger generation shows a declining interest in gold jewelry, viewing it as outdated and preferring luxury items like designer bags and high-performance cars to express their personal style and economic status [7][9]. - Consumers are becoming increasingly savvy regarding the resale of gold, often facing unfavorable buyback prices compared to their purchase prices, which diminishes their willingness to invest in gold [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with gold falling to a low of $4032.10 before rebounding slightly to close at $4084.80, marking a decline of 2.07% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with a drop of $180 from the daily high to a low of $4032.10, before closing at $4084.80 [1] - Silver prices also fell significantly, dropping from a high of $53.53 to a low of $50.03, closing at $50.56, reflecting a decline of 3.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Jefferson indicated that interest rates are closer to neutral and suggested a slow approach due to potential data gaps from government shutdowns [1] - Kashkari expressed opposition to the last rate cut decision but remains cautious about the best course of action for the December meeting [1] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is closer to neutral rather than slightly tight [1] - Collins suggested that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for some time [1] - Daly opposed raising the 2% inflation target and stated it is premature to assert whether there will be a rate cut in December [1] - Logan found it difficult to support a rate cut in December [1]

Core Points - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his decision to retire early at the end of February next year, providing another opportunity for President Trump to exert influence within the Federal Reserve [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Bostic expressed a cautious stance, preferring to maintain the current interest rate levels until there is "clear evidence" that inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target [2] - He believes the current monetary policy is slightly restrictive and that the more pressing risk remains price stability rather than the labor market signals, which he finds ambiguous [2] Group 2: Leadership and Succession - Bostic has served as Atlanta Fed President for eight years and is the first Black president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in the Fed's 111-year history [3] - Following Bostic's retirement announcement, the Atlanta Fed's board will form a search committee to find his successor, which will require approval from the Washington Fed Board [3] Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's interest in exerting greater control over the Federal Reserve is highlighted, especially as he seeks to see interest rate cuts [4] - The upcoming appointments of regional Fed presidents will be closely watched, as Trump aims to influence the Federal Reserve's direction, particularly after Powell's term ends in May [4][5]