Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing, gold and silver prices have risen. The uncertainty over Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor persists, but the high expectation of Fed easing continues to support the prices of gold and silver. The premium of Shanghai gold has continued to converge, while the premium of Shanghai silver has remained stable. The dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, providing support for gold and silver prices [4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly, European major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. bond yields declined across the board, the 10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.234%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.19, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1523, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to $3451.80 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the Fed's easing expectation is high, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to $38.69 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 35, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 38165 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision; the 2025 Digital Expo, the 9th Asia - Pacific Biomedical Cooperation Summit, the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo, the 2025 SUPCON Technology New Product Release and Industrial AI Innovation Development Conference, and the 2025 China Charging Facilities Industry Operation and Service Development Conference - Suzhou Meeting open; the U.S. imposes an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50% [15]. - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员Nakagawa Junko speaks in Yamaguchi Prefecture [15]. - 16:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks [15]. - 19:30: The ECB releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting [15]. - 20:30: The U.S. releases the revised Q2 GDP and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 [15]. - 22:00: The U.S. releases the July pending home sales index [15]. - 06:00 the next day: Fed Governor Christopher Waller talks about monetary policy at the Miami Economic Club [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic behind the price movement is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold is high, making it prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices generally follow gold prices. The concern over tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.79% to 613,969, the short position decreased by 1.44% to 465,492, and the net position decreased by 2.89% to 148,477 [30]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 3.45% to 1,045,510, the short position decreased by 2.63% to 967,544, and the net position decreased by 12.63% to 77,966 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly, while the position of silver ETF decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly. COMEX gold warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts were higher than the same period last year [39][40][42].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing upward momentum, approaching the 148.00 level, supported by a slight increase in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, but concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and Trump's latest tariff threats are dampening market sentiment, providing support for the safe-haven yen [1]. Technical Overview - A breakout above the 148.00 level is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY, with potential upward movement towards the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) just above 149.00, and further buying could lead to attempts to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00 [4]. - Support is identified at the 147.80 level, with a potential decline below this support leading to further drops towards the 147.30 area and ultimately the 147.00 level, which would negate the positive outlook and shift the short-term trend to bearish [5]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 3.0% increase in AUD construction work done, a GfK consumer confidence survey in the Eurozone showing -23.6, and a notable decline in the US MBA mortgage applications by 1.4% [6]. - President Trump's unprecedented order to dismiss Cook shocked investors, leading to initial declines in the dollar, which later rebounded after Cook's commitment to remain in position [6]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks indicated a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months, contributing to a decline in USD/JPY by over 1%, while the Bank of Japan's governor raised concerns about inflation from wage increases, hinting at conditions for further rate hikes [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Fed personnel changes boost easing expectations, gold tariff news causes price fluctuations. With a new dovish Fed outlook, gold prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2.2 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices follow gold prices, showing a short - term decline and then a rebound. With the recovery of risk appetite and the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, silver prices are expected to be bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) - **Gold**: U.S. stock indexes rose, European indexes were mixed, U.S. bond yields increased, the dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $3458.2 per ounce. The Fed's personnel change pushed up easing expectations, and the gold tariff news led to price oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices followed gold prices, rebounding after a short - term decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.56% to $38.51 per ounce [6]. 3.2 每日提示 (Daily Tips) - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures remains unchanged at 36045 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8049 kg to 1158387 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6][7]. 3.3 今日关注 (Today's Focus) - Japan's stock market is closed for "Mountain Day". - At 16:00, Italy's July CPI final value and June trade balance will be released. - China's July M2 and other money supply, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans may be released [16]. 3.4 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, rising U.S. stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors involve Trump's new policies, improved U.S. economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [11][15]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [14][15]. 3.5 持仓数据 (Position Data) - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.86% to 231,526 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position increased by 0.28% to 61,173, and the net position increased by 3.82% to 170,353 [29]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 1.78% to 353,481 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position decreased by 3.11% to 261,474, and the net position increased by 18.83% to 92,007 [32].

Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Fed's easing expectations support the rebound of aluminum prices. On the 6th, SHFE aluminum closed higher, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. Due to uneven arrivals, the daily inventory decreased slightly, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE aluminum closed higher on the 6th, with the main contract 2509 rising 0.76% to 20,650. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,400 to 577,553 lots, and the 08-09 spread was reported at 30. [8] - The daily inventory decreased slightly due to uneven arrivals, but the spot market remained weak. The purchasing power of downstream processed materials in East China was still weak. After a large buyer purchased at a discount, the pressure on holders to sell decreased slightly, and the spot premium remained stable. [8] - Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following SHFE aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread reported at -485. Currently in the off-season of the automotive industry, demand weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum was short. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate within a range following SHFE aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure. [8] - In August, the supply of bauxite showed a tightening trend, mainly due to the gradual impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of production of some suspended mines, the shortage might be limited, and the bauxite price mainly operated at the bottom. [8] - The operating capacity of alumina increased, and the fundamentals remained in surplus. Attention should be paid to whether the anti-involution policy involves this industry. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution. If there is a high point, short-selling can still be considered, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by emotional changes. [8] - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still sluggish in the off-season. The inventory showed a seasonal increase. The profit of smelting enterprises declined but was still substantial. [8] - Currently, the aluminum market was dominated by macro sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and the domestic policy expectations supported the sector to be strong, but the off-season continued. Short-selling opportunities could be waited for after the rebound. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overseas Bauxite Mining Right Changes**: On August 4, the Guinean government announced the establishment of Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA-GAC. The company is a public limited company wholly owned by the Guinean government, with a board of directors, legal personality, and financial and management autonomy. The 690.20-square-kilometer mining area previously occupied by GAC has been awarded to NMC for 25 years. Previously, EGA's annual production capacity in Guinea was 14 million tons, and the mine stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year. [9][10] - **New Aluminum Recycling Plant in the US**: Spectro Alloys' aluminum recycling plant in Rosemount, Minnesota, has been officially put into operation. The newly expanded plant covers an area of 90,000 square feet and will produce up to 120 million pounds of recycled aluminum ingots from scrap aluminum annually. These recycled aluminum ingots will be used for extrusion processing to make railings, window and door frames, and structural components for automobiles, ships, airplanes, trailers, etc. The plant is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2026. As part of its entry into the North American market, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) acquired 80% of Spectro Alloys in 2024. In addition, EGA recently announced plans to invest $4 billion in building a smelting plant in Oklahoma, which will nearly double the primary aluminum production in the US. [10] - **Change of Bauxite Mining Right in China**: The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shanzhou District Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine was changed. The mining right holder is Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The mine's mining species is bauxite, the mining method is open-pit/underground mining, the mining area is 7.7548 square kilometers, and the designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year. [10] - **Vedanta's Q1 FY2026 Results**: Vedanta's net profit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (April - June 2025) declined. Despite strong local demand, it was difficult to offset the impact of falling aluminum and copper prices and rising tax expenditures. The company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Affected by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US trade policies, the benchmark three-month aluminum and copper prices fell by 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively in the reporting quarter. Falling commodity prices often affect the sales prices and profits of mining companies. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 374.34 billion rupees ($4.3 billion), mainly due to the increase in aluminum and copper revenues, which increased by 7.7% and 34.6% respectively. The company's consolidated net profit decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 31.85 billion rupees, compared with 36.06 billion rupees in the same period of the previous fiscal year. According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), analysts' average expectation for Vedanta's profit was 34.83 billion rupees. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company's EBITDA increased by about 2% to 60.53 billion rupees, while tax expenditures jumped from 8.31 billion rupees a year ago to 15.96 billion rupees. Vedanta's operating profit margin remained unchanged at 21% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: According to customs data, in June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. (The above import and export data are based on customs codes 76011090 and 76011010) [10][11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price trend: On the 6th, Shanghai nickel continued to rise slightly, with the main contract 2509 closing up 0.22% at 121,070. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,386 to 189,989 lots [7] - Market consumption: The overall consumption is still weak, the trading among traders is not active, the average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel remains flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium range of domestic mainstream brands of electrowinning nickel is -100 - 300 yuan/ton [7] - Supply and price of nickel ore: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose in the future, and the price is under further downward pressure, with the support from the ore end weakening [7] - NPI price: The NPI price continued to rise, with an average of 918 yuan/nickel point on the 6th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [7] - Nickel salt price: Nickel salt prices are repaired at a low level, and there may be a slight boost in the short term [7] - Market outlook: The current macro - sentiment supports the nickel price to be strong, the industrial chain prices have recovered, but the oversupply pressure remains. After the sentiment fades, the price is likely to continue to be under pressure [7] Group 3: Industry News - Investment in Indonesia's nickel downstream industry: Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [8][10] - Battery energy storage system in Bulgaria: Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - Innovation in solar cells: A research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with significantly reduced silver usage while maintaining high efficiency, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Battery energy storage project in the UK: Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, with the approved total storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.15, with a slight decline of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1569, influenced by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for European high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, with the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index dropping 3 basis points to 278 basis points, marking a one-month low [1] - The decline in CDS costs is primarily driven by a substantial downward revision in US non-farm payroll data, which has strengthened market expectations for an upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - If the euro breaks above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1645, it may rise further to 1.1700, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.1800 and the yearly high of 1.1830 [2] - Conversely, if the euro falls below the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1576, it could drop to 1.1550 and potentially test the key level of 1.1500, with the next significant area being the August low of 1.1391 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with major indices showing negative performance, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][3]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.51 points, down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10432.42 points, down 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index at 2129.79 points, down 0.84% [1]. - Over 3200 stocks in the market declined, with sectors such as semiconductor chips, CPO, brain-computer interfaces, and diversified finance showing weakness [3]. Sector Analysis - The marine economy concept stocks performed well, with marine engineering equipment, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, and aquaculture leading the gains [3]. - The photovoltaic, non-ferrous metals, and oil and gas sectors also showed notable increases [3]. - Banking stocks were active, with several stocks, including China Construction Bank, reaching new highs [3]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electric equipment, basic chemicals, and machinery sectors, while there were outflows from electronics, communications, and non-bank financial sectors [4]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Rongfa Nuclear Power (13.68 billion), Yuyin Co. (8.10 billion), and Hunan Tianyan (7.18 billion) [5]. - Conversely, stocks like Cambrian Biologics-U, Aijian Group, and Guosheng Financial Holdings faced net outflows of 4.33 billion, 3.84 billion, and 3.09 billion respectively [6]. Economic Outlook - The ongoing overseas fiscal expansion is expected to gradually improve global demand, with upcoming fundamental data likely to guide the Federal Reserve's easing expectations [6]. - The liquidity in the domestic market is tightening marginally, and the demand for real economy funding remains reliant on fiscal expansion, with a continued supportive structure for market performance expected in early July [6]. - However, the acceleration of special government bond financing and local government bond financing starting mid-July may disrupt market stability, leading to increased volatility later in the month [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the market rebounded. The holiday news was stable, and the potential positive news of Sino - US trade and the cooling of US small non - farm data supported risk assets. The stock market sentiment was active, and the index was strong. Over the weekend, positive news continued to emerge [1]. - This week, a series of economic data will be released, which may reveal the impact of the trade friction on the real economy and affect the expectation of policy easing. Overall, the disturbing force may not be large, and under the weak expectation of the real economy, the policy easing expectation is strong, providing a neutral - to - positive support to the market. Without major negative events, the stock market is expected to be driven by structural hot topics. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic economic data, Sino - US negotiation progress, and US inflation data [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, US stocks rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.17%, the S&P 500 up 1.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2.18%. European stocks also generally rose, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.75%, the German DAX up 1.28%, and the French CAC40 up 0.68%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.59%, while the Hang Seng Index rose 2.16% [7]. - **Domestic Stock Index Performance**: Most domestic major indexes rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.16%. Since 2025, most major indexes have declined [7]. - **Industry Performance**: In the CSI 300 Index, the telecommunications and information sectors rose, while the consumer and optional consumption sectors fell. In the CSI 500 Index, most industries rose [8]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips. The core operating ranges of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 are 3740 - 3933 points, 2607 - 2727 points, 5554 - 5926 points, and 5887 - 6283 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Cautiously hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and SSE 50 Index are 14.49 times, 12.46 times, and 10.85 times respectively. The TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index are 27.66 times and 36.02 times respectively [17][18]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the context of the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US dollar's credit, the gold price has been strong. Since the beginning of 2025 (from January 2 to April 25), the price of the COMEX gold main contract has risen by 26.1%, reaching a record high of $3,509.9 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US tariff policies and the Fed's persistently tight monetary policy stance have pressured the silver price, which has significantly underperformed gold. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a relatively high level. After the easing of the impact on the Fed's independence, the Fed has signaled a loose monetary policy. Around the Fed's June interest - rate meeting, the silver price may start a catch - up rally [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2010 QE2 Monetary Policy Expectations and the Rise of Silver Price to a Record High - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the significant rise of the silver price was often macro - driven by the "accelerated" release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, with the breakdown of the gold - silver ratio as the starting point on the trading chart. Before the start of the silver rally in early August 2010, the market's main expectation for the Fed's monetary policy was the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2). The Fed continuously cut interest rates after the September 18, 2007, interest - rate meeting, and the upper bound of the federal funds rate target was lowered from 5.25% to 0.25% after the December 16, 2008, meeting. The Fed's balance sheet expanded from $905.2 billion in early September 2008 to $2,325.3 billion in early August 2010 [4]. - In early June 2010, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified in the House Financial Committee, indicating that the US economic recovery faced significant risks and that the Fed would maintain policy flexibility and take action if necessary. This was his first indication of possible additional loose policies after the end of the first round of quantitative easing. The US dollar index rose from April to June 2010 due to the weak euro after the European debt crisis, reaching a peak on June 7 and then falling 6.02% to 83.15 by the end of August. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.01% on April 5, 2010, to 2.58% in mid - August. By the end of August 2010, both the Fed officials' statements and the trends of the US Treasury yield and the US dollar index pointed to further loose monetary policy on the balance - sheet level (the possibility of lowering the policy rate to negative was low). At the Jackson Hole central bank symposium at the end of August 2010, Bernanke confirmed the implementation of QE2 [5]. - After Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, the gold - silver ratio broke down at the end of the triangular convergence, and the COMEX silver price rose after breaking through the convergence. From August 27, 2010, to April 29, 2011, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 156% to $48.6 per ounce, reaching a record high of $49.8 per ounce [6]. 3.2 2020 Pandemic Shock and the Concentrated Release of the Fed's Loose Monetary Policy - In March 2020, due to the large - scale community spread of the COVID - 19 in the US, the Fed under Powell's leadership implemented emergency interest - rate cuts. On March 15, 2020, the Fed lowered the interest rate to 0% - 0.25% and restarted quantitative easing, promising to buy at least $700 billion of Treasury bonds and MBS per month. In the May 19, 2020, interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 0% - 0.25% and emphasized that the interest rate would remain low for a long time [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 1.86% on January 9, 2020, to 0.66% on June 30, 2020, due to the safe - haven drive of the pandemic and the Fed's loose stance. The US dollar index, which was strong at the beginning of the pandemic due to safe - haven factors, fell 5.1% from 102.7 on March 20 to 97.4 on June 30. By the end of June 2020, the Fed had implemented loose monetary policies in terms of both interest rates and the balance sheet, which were reflected in the 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index. In early July 2020, the gold - silver ratio formed a bear flag decline continuation pattern, and the COMEX silver main contract price had recovered from the low level and showed an ascending triangle pattern. In the July 2020 Fed interest - rate meeting, Powell emphasized the severe situation of the US economy and the need for monetary and fiscal policy support. The gold - silver ratio broke down the flag surface in July and reached 72.1 in early August. From June 30 to August 10, 2020, the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose 62% to $29.2 per ounce [12]. 3.3 Current Fed's Monetary Policy Stance Change and the Expected Repetition of the "Script" of Accelerated Loose Expectations - The Trump administration's radical tariff policies have increased the risk of a US economic recession and pushed up inflation. After the new US administration took office, Powell and other Fed officials took a hawkish stance. After the sharp correction of the US stock market on April 17, Powell was still cautious about interest - rate cuts, stating that the Fed would not conduct "market - rescue" operations. Trump criticized the Fed's monetary policy, and there were discussions about "removing Powell." However, at the end of April, Trump changed his attitude, and the US Treasury Secretary explained that Trump's remarks might refer to the end of Powell's term. Subsequently, Fed officials' attitudes changed, indicating that there was room for loose monetary policy in the second half of the year. Fed Governor Waller took a dovish stance, and Cleveland Fed President Harker was more explicit about the possible adjustment time of monetary policy [14][17]. - From February 3 to April 25, 2025, the US dollar index fell 8.8% from 109.2 to 99.6, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell from 4.51% to 4.24%. These declines reflected the market's expectation of a US economic recession and the selling of US dollar assets. The CME interest - rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the June, September, October, and December interest - rate meetings, with the terminal interest - rate range reaching 3.25% - 3.50% at the end of the year [18]. - Currently, the gold - silver ratio is at a high level above 100 and is gradually forming a top pattern. The COMEX silver main contract price has rebounded after the release of the negative impact of tariffs, showing a strong technical pattern. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech. Around the June interest - rate meeting, as the tariff policies have a substantial impact on the US economy, especially the labor market, Powell may gradually express his stance on interest - rate cuts. The breakdown of the gold - silver ratio will be the starting point of the silver rally, and the international silver price is expected to reach a record high [19].