12月15日，上周五我们认为，市场对美联储明年进一步降息的预期，支撑黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也 显示，黄金向上摆脱最近两周的震荡区间，存在进一步上涨的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关 注4300和4285美元，黄金在失守这两个位置之前，存在进一步冲高的机会，上方空间关注历史高点4381 美元。 从之后的走势看，上周五欧盘盘中，黄金延续之前上涨走势，涨至4339美元遇阻，美盘开盘后，黄金进 一步上涨，刷新一个多月新高至4353美元，遇阻后金价短线跳水，一波急跌刷新日低只4257美元，不过 金价很快企稳反弹，重新站稳4285美元上方，并在本周一开盘后再度上涨，刷新日高至4350美元，目前 交投于4342美元附近。总体来看，尽管上周五黄金一度冲高回落，但最终仍录得涨势，金价维持冲高势 头，基本符合我们的看涨预期。 Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，黄金日内连续第五个交易日上涨，逼近历史高点位置4381美元，短 期表现十分强势，这主要因上周美联储宣布降息25个基点之后，美联储主席主席鲍威尔发表讲话，认为 劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就业增长，而这引发了市场对明年美联储可能降息两次 的猜测，对 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月15日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。铂涨7%，钯涨超4%，多晶硅、集运欧线、焦煤涨超 3%，烧碱、氧化铝涨近3%；跌幅方面，苹果跌超2%，国际铜、沪铝、沪铜、菜油跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 是新 | 现手 | 20-10 | 荣价 | 盛德米十 | 外汇 | 英语 | 成交量 | 漆蛋 | 持位置 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 第2606 W | 482.40 | 1 | 482.40 | | 7.00% | 456 | --- | 41832 31.55 | | 17844 | 6674 | | 2 | 2606 W | 407.60 | 1 | 407.40 | 407.45 | 4.73% | T | 1 | 30669 18.40 | | 5562 | 2099 | | 3 | 多品硅2605 M | 58030 | 7 | 58025 | 58030 | ...

12月15日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至479.90元，创上市以来新高。截止发 稿，铂主力合约报479.55元，涨幅6.37%。 国信期货：广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强 铂族金属走势继续受宏观情绪与板块联动主导。一方面，美联储内部政策信号不一，但整体宽松预期仍 未扭转，支撑贵金属整体氛围；另一方面，地缘风险持续，叠加资金在金银强势后的扩散效应，推动具 备一定金融属性的铂金获得补涨动能。钯金则受制于传统汽车需求前景疲软，表现相对温和。预计铂族 金属短期或延续分化震荡，广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强。 瑞达期货：铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克 宏观方面，美联储如期展开25个基点的降息操作，鲍威尔强调当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致 的核心通胀已明显回落。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期 扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。运行区间，伦敦铂金现货关注上方阻力位1750美元/盎 司，下方支撑位1600美元/盎司。铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克。 铂期货主力涨超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 ...

中信建投证券研报称，2025年大类资产中，以金银代表的贵金属一骑绝尘。当前美国增长和通胀分化， 经济和政治复杂性空前。面对美国中期选举，美联储独立性不得不被搁置，即便面临压不下的通胀中 枢，美国依然选择宽松，导致美联储宽松预期不止，美债长短期限利差走扩，贵金属强势。展望2026 年，需要关注货币和财政政策回归之后的全球经济走向。接力金银的下一个大宗品种，应该是铜。 ...

欧元兑美元在周一于1.1650区域受阻后，仍维持在1.1600上方 全球债券抛售推升美国国债收益率，为美元提供一定支撑 衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）周一获得支撑，尽管美国ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）疲软——该数据表明制造业活动连续第九个 月萎缩，新订单和就业岗位减少，通胀压力上升。 日本央行行长植田和男周一引发市场震荡，暗示可能在12月加息。此番言论触发全球债券市场抛售潮，推升美国国债收益率，为疲软美元提供支撑。 周二早间日本国债拍卖反响良好，在一定程度上缓解了市场担忧，但风险偏好仍显疲软。今日美国经济数据清淡，市场焦点仍将集中于周三公布的ISM服务 业PMI及ADP就业变化报告。 周一公布的美国ISM制造业PMI显示，11月制造业活动进一步收缩，指数从10月的48.7降至48.2，远低于预期值48.6。新订单指数从49.4跌至47.4，就业指数 从10月的46降至11月的44。支付价格指数从58.0升至58.5，凸显贸易关税引发的通胀压力。 欧元区制造业数据同样令人失望。最终版HCOB制造业PMI从10月持平于50.0的水平，经下修后降至11月五个月低点49.6（初值为49.7）。 ...

Group 1 - The forex and precious metals markets are experiencing light trading as traders focus on upcoming EU inflation data and potential Fed policy easing [1][3] - The US manufacturing sector shows weaker-than-expected performance, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 to 48.2, indicating continued contraction [1][2] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with the probability rising to 87% according to FedWatch [1][2] Group 2 - The euro/dollar remains above 1.1600, while the pound/dollar hovers around 1.3200, indicating cautious trading ahead of key data releases [2] - Gold prices are fluctuating around $4200, supported by strong easing expectations despite pressure from rising US Treasury yields [2][3] - Geopolitical risks related to ongoing discussions between US officials and Russian President regarding Ukraine provide some underlying support for gold [2]

近期，贵金属市场再度大幅飙升，白银表现尤其亮眼。 11月28日，现货白银大涨超6%，突破56美元/盎司，创下历史新高；沪银夜盘同样表现强劲，大涨超5%，突破 13000元大关，刷新历史高点；现货黄金则重回4200美元。 机构一致认为，美联储宽松预期强化、实际利率下行叠加全球白银连续五年供不应求，共同推动贵金属维持强 势格局。 白银创下历史新高 今年以来，白银走出了一轮创纪录的牛市行情。10月中旬，现货白银创下历史新高，最高触及54.47美元/盎 司，随后开始高位震荡，一度急跌至45美元/盎司；自11月以来，现货白银自48美元/盎司一线震荡走高，先后 突破50美元，并最高触及54.38美元，随后震荡整理。 11月28日，现货白银大涨超6%，突破56美元/盎司，创下历史新高，最高触及56.78美元/盎司，今年以来累计 涨幅高达90%，成为年内表现最为强势的品种之一；沪银夜盘大涨超5%，最高触及13239元/克，突破13000元 大关；现货黄金亦走势强劲，大涨1%，重回4200美元/盎司，最高触及4230美元/盎司。 13%。 金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰指出，从宏观层面看，本轮白银上涨的核心催化仍然来自利率与政策预 ...

Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in interest rate decisions among Federal Reserve officials is impacting gold prices, leading to a decline in COMEX gold futures and related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures opened lower and are currently trading around $4028 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 686 million yuan over the past 13 trading days, despite a 0.74% drop today [1] - Other related ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF (159562) and 有色金属 ETF 基金 (516650), have also experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.56% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions, with at least three officials expected to oppose maintaining the current rates in the upcoming December meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates by 25 basis points, the opposition could also reach at least three votes [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Longcheng Futures indicates that the recent pullback in gold prices follows a period of strong performance, driven by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, while medium to long-term support remains from risks of economic recession, fiscal expansion, and weakening dollar credibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, while the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. For Shanghai Silver futures, the overall trend is in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a pattern of "strengthening in oscillation and then回调". The core logic was driven by the resonance of "signals of weak US economy" and "expectations of Fed easing", along with factors such as the weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases. The Friday回调 was due to high - level profit - taking pressure. In the future, the short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, and the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. Attention should be paid to the re - issuance of US economic data and Fed policy trends [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate between 900 - 940 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22]. Silver Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a pattern of "rising in oscillation and then回调 at a high level", reaching a record high of 12,600 yuan/kg. The core driving logic was the resonance of the strengthened expectations of Fed easing (ending QT and interest - rate cut expectations) and the structural shortage of spot goods, along with the surge in investment demand (increase in ETF holdings) and the resilience of industrial demand (recovery in photovoltaic and Indian imports). The Friday回调 was mainly due to high - level profit - taking and technical resistance, and the continuous decline in open interest indicated cautious market sentiment. In the future, the short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention paid to the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kg. The upper resistance level was 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/kg. Short - term grid trading was recommended [33]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The silver contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [41][43][46].