新华财经上海12月30日电 2025年，国内公募REITs市场在政策东风与资本青睐的"呵护"背景下稳步前 行，呈现出三大鲜明的阶段性特征。 就规模维度来看，2025年1月至12月29日，我国基础设施公募REITs一级市场的首发项目共20单，募集 资金规模434.50 亿元（首发407.81亿元、扩募26.69亿元）；截至12月29日，已上市公募REITs产品数量 增至78只，累计发行规模约2017.50 亿元，另有多只REITs处于待上市状态，后续增量空间可观。 值得注意的是，尽管2025年的发行节奏较2024年有所放缓（2024年累计发行29只，规模655.17亿元）， 但扩募机制的常态化运行有效补充了市场增量。 记者还观察到，在公募REITs规模扩张的同时，市场特征愈发鲜明。其一，是资产类型获得了突破性拓 展——数字基础设施、城市更新等新领域相继落地。2025年，市场中出现了多个"首单"项目，包括首批 两单数据中心REIT（南方万国数据中心REIT和南方润泽科技数据中心REIT）、首单供热管网REIT—— 国泰君安济南能源供热REIT、首单城市更新产业园REIT——华夏金隅制造工场REIT等，这标志着公募 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of industrial bonds in 2025, as well as a financial analysis of different industries, aiming to provide investors with a reference for investment decisions [1][34][61] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 15,700 narrow - caliber credit bonds have been issued in 2025, with a total scale of 13.91 trillion yuan. After excluding urban investment bonds, 7,440 industrial bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [1][10] - 16 industries have an annual issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top - ranked industries in terms of issuance scale being public utilities (1.95 trillion yuan/1,060 bonds), non - bank finance (1.38 trillion yuan/1,407 bonds), and transportation (1.00 trillion yuan/805 bonds) [1][13] - In terms of bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and corporate bonds have relatively high issuance amounts, accounting for 41.3%, 34.6%, and 23.0% respectively. Among special varieties, the annual issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds accounts for over 20%, and that of green bonds accounts for 4% [16] - The scale of industrial bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises accounts for over 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly concentrated at the AAA level. Geographically, Beijing has the largest issuance scale, followed by Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [20] - In terms of issuance term, the issuance scale of industrial bonds with a term of 1 year or less is the largest, accounting for 35.7%, followed by 1 - 3 years (35.1%) and 3 - 5 years (19.8%) [28] - In terms of issuance interest rate, the proportion of industrial bonds with a coupon rate of 2% or less is the highest, reaching 57%, followed by 2% - 3% (40%), and the average annual issuance coupon rate is 2.15% [31] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trend Review - Since the beginning of the year, affected by policies, funds, and market preferences, the yield of credit bonds has experienced two rounds of first rising and then falling, showing an M - shaped trend, which can be divided into four stages [34] - From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the yield rose rapidly, and the credit spread widened to the highest level of the year. From late March to early July, the yield declined continuously, and the credit spread narrowed. From mid - July to the end of September, the yield rose again, and the credit spread widened. From October to now, the yield has declined fluctuantly, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened [34][35][36] 2.2 Overview of Outstanding Industrial Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, there are 13,625 outstanding industrial bonds in the narrow - caliber credit bond market, with a total scale of 15.39 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [39] - The public utilities and non - bank finance industries have an outstanding industrial bond scale of over 2 trillion yuan, significantly leading other industries. The issuers of outstanding industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in high - grade central and local state - owned enterprises [39][41] - The weighted average remaining term of outstanding industrial bonds is 3.08 years. Industries with a longer weighted average remaining term include comprehensive, communication, and coal, while industries with a shorter term include media, light manufacturing, and national defense and military industry [46][49] - In terms of implicit ratings, AA(2) and AA - rated industrial bonds account for 25% in total, ranking first, followed by AA+ (24%) and AAA (19%) [52] - Taking AAA - rated industrial bonds as an example, industries such as real estate, coal, and pharmaceutical biology have relatively high spreads, with certain yield - mining potential [58] 3. Industry - Specific Financial Analysis 3.1 Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. Among the 29 industries, 11 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total revenue, with machinery and equipment and computer industries leading in revenue growth [62] - The total net profit of industrial bond issuers reached 2.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.32%. 16 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total net profit, with textile and apparel and steel industries leading in growth [62] - The non - bank finance industry has a net profit margin of over 30%, far higher than other industries, followed by environmental protection and public utilities industries, with a net profit margin of over 10% [62] 3.2 Debt Situation - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries such as building decoration and real estate have relatively high debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of over 70%, while industries such as national defense and military industry and media have relatively low debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of less than 50% [64] - The total interest - bearing debt of industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. Only 4 industries, including communication, textile and apparel, electronics, and real estate, saw a year - on - year decrease in total interest - bearing debt [64] - Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and social services have a relatively high proportion of interest - bearing debt to total liabilities, over 70%, while industries such as automobile and national defense and military industry have a relatively low proportion, less than 45%, with relatively low debt - repayment pressure [64] 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries with strong short - term debt - repayment ability include textile and apparel, national defense and military industry, media, and light manufacturing, with a coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt of over 100%, while industries such as non - bank finance, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical have relatively weak short - term debt - repayment ability, with a coverage ratio of less than 50% [66] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of operating cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 18.40% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive operating cash flow, 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net inflow of financing cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 145.37% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive financing cash flow, 6 industries, including electronics and environmental protection, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net outflow of investment cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 14.33% year - on - year, with an overall increase in investment expenditure. All 29 industries had a net outflow of investment cash flow, and 19 industries, including comprehensive and computer, saw an increase in investment expenditure [68]

作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 资金面宽松带动短债走强，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 核心观点 1.83%-1.88%区间内震荡运行，同时，跨年资金好转有望 支撑短债延续偏强态势，收益率曲线或进一步走陡。 分析师 瞿瑞 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 冯琳 2025 年 12 月 29 日 上周债市延续震荡格局，收益率曲线陡峭化程度加深。 上周一（12 月 22 日）公布的 12 月 LPR 报价维持不变， 市场宽松预期边际降温，债市随之小幅调整。周二起， 配置盘逐步入场，叠加 MLF 超量续作支撑年末资金面平 稳宽松，进而带动中短债大幅走强，并部分传导至长端。 不过，由于股市上涨，股债跷跷板效应显现，长债表现 受到一定压制。总体上看，上周债市整体震荡，中短债 收益率大幅下行，长债收益率则小幅上行，收益率曲线 进一步陡峭化。 本周（12 月 29 日当周）债市预计维持震荡运行。年末 债市未出现季节性集中抢配行情，一方面源于债的性价 比仍低于股，另一方面也因一季度开门红、股市春季躁 动以及财政发力的预期，导致机构对明年初债市判断 ...

每日经济新闻 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年 共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益，有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦 ...

每日经济新闻 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/-1.01%； 7.6%/8.47%；2.49%/4.81%；1.92%/2.09%；5.19%/5.78%；2.52%/2.87%；4.37%/4.83%；9.02%/8.09%； 0.67%/-0.24%。提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 相关机构表示，当前股债跷跷板效应凸显，债券资产性价比逐步提升，成为震荡市场中的优质防御配 置。从经济基本面来看，经济处于新 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining above 1.8% since September, leading to a total return of only 0.78% for pure bond funds this year, which is lower than that of money market funds [1][2] - The recent simultaneous decline in both stock and bond markets is attributed to low risk-reward environments and ongoing concerns about potential new regulations, resulting in insufficient buying interest from investors [2][4] - The bond market's weakness is further exacerbated by year-end profit-taking demands from institutions, alongside a lack of significant short-term positive catalysts, leading to increased selling pressure [1][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that significant adjustments in the bond market are often linked to economic expectations, policy shifts, and changes in trading structures, with past downturns indicating a pattern of recovery following each major decline [5][7] - The bond market has undergone five notable adjustments in the past five years, with each instance reflecting a re-evaluation of market conditions and investor sentiment [5][7] - Current market conditions suggest that while the bond market may remain in a narrow trading range in the short term, there is potential for improvement in the short-end supply-demand structure due to a clear supportive stance from the central bank [4][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the current bond market environment should focus on short to medium-duration bond funds, while maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration bonds until market trends become clearer [9][11] - The concept of "timing" in bond fund investment is less critical than ensuring a balanced asset allocation, as bonds inherently possess income-generating characteristics that can mitigate short-term volatility [8][9] - The introduction of "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to enhance returns while managing risk, particularly in a fluctuating market [11][13]

2025 年债券市场呈现收益率曲线低位徘徊、横盘时间长、波动区间收 窄但波动率偏高的特征，极端定价现象明显，收益率波动区间仅约 31BP，但标准差较高。 2025 年价格驱动逻辑包括对基本面弱修复定价钝化，对向上修复定价 敏感；对外生冲击定价更快，学习效应更强；资产荒逻辑松动和股债跷 跷板效应延续时间拉长，股市与债市相关性增强。 预计 2026 年通胀温和回升，PPI 同比可能收窄至-1%，CPI 同比预计在 0.4%左右，受益于反内卷政策、重点行业供给优化和核心 CPI 正增长， 但部分行业产能过剩和居民端预期谨慎制约内生动能。 反内卷政策提升了汽车、电气设备、光伏、风电等政策敏感行业以及计 算机通信等强需求行业的产能利用率，但传统三高行业改善缓慢，仍徘 徊在低位。 当前沪深 300 ERP 指标显示纯债具备更高性价比，该指标在未来一个月 到一年具有约 80%的胜率提示效果，若后续有效突破上下两边调查，将 具备良好的提示作用。 Q&A 对于 2026 年债券市场的整体观点是什么？ 2026 年债券市场的整体观点可以概括为"稳中有变，结构为王"。从基本面 和政策面的维度来看，明年的改变线索不多。然而，自下半年 ...

当你认为A股不行的时候，今天反包了。 有人说，是不是因为债市的缘故，跷跷板效应，导致A股走强？很显然，这属于是缘木求鱼。 30年债今天刷新年内低点。去年债券市场有多香，今年就有多惨。 反过来，国债收益率则在持续走强，不知道还以为我们的经济完成复苏。造成近期债市出现异常波动有三方面的原因： 这就是为什么，今天A股尽管是上涨，成交量依旧减少1219亿，1.56万亿的量能，是没办法维持当下市场的全面行情。 资金涌入哪里呢？科技，还是科技。明天是科创板近2年最大的IPO摩尔线程上市，先恭喜打新中签的，明天红包估计不小。市场先做了一个预热，同时 寒王出小作文，计划26年提高AI芯片产量至3倍以上。凌晨的时候川子传来了机器人方面的利好。 另外，铜价在昨晚刷新历史新高，背后是供应端的紧张。一方面，矿产铜矿品质下降，全球第二大铜矿发生事故，预计减少供应约50~80万吨。叠加美联 储的降息周期，铜价其上涨逻辑非常的硬。 其实，今年以来有色资源类板块，反倒是A股当中涨幅最好的板块。期货端就不用说了。 总之，A股今天缩量反弹，再次说明市场资金参与热情一般，纯粹是众多利好刺激的作用。明年摩尔上市，如果市场不放量，反倒是缩量，本就存量 ...

最近债圈的日子"不好过"。12月4日早盘，股债市场齐跌，持续阴跌的债市迎来更大幅度调整，超长债 抛压尤为明显。 30年期国债期货合约全天跌超1%，创近期单日最大跌幅；30年超长债收益率一度上行4BP（基 点），"25超长特别国债06"收益率已经来到2.28%附近。 不同于前期"股债跷跷板"效应下的债市波动，四季度以来债市接连阴跌，期限利差不断走阔。对于债市 进一步大跌，有市场人士对第一财经表示，作为交易主线之一的央行国债买卖不及预期已被市场消化， 但持续下跌加上短期无明显利好，机构抛售兑现老券浮盈叠加买盘力量弱，极易形成负反馈。 不少机构分析，短期恐慌情绪难免，但在长期趋势下，此轮深跌也为后续反弹留下空间。12月将有 10000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，央行4日晚间公告称将于5日进行等量续作。 国债期限利差进一步走阔 临近年末，尽管资金面整体延续宽松态势，但持续阴跌的债市没有修复迹象，反而迎来了进一步深跌。 12月4日，截至收盘，国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%，创下2024年11月22日以来新低； 10年期主力合约跌0.35%，5年期主力合约跌0.24%，2年期主力合约跌0.05%。 银行 ...

Core Insights - The bond fund market is experiencing significant turbulence as year-end approaches, with ongoing redemption pressures following a substantial net redemption of over 470 billion units in the third quarter [2][4] Redemption Trends - The bond fund category has faced the most severe outflows in the second half of the year, with total bond fund shares decreasing by approximately 474.4 billion units from the end of the second quarter to the end of the third quarter, resulting in a scale reduction of about 169.5 billion yuan [4][5] - Long-term pure bond funds have been the primary drivers of redemptions, accounting for over 90% of the total net outflows [5] - As of December 2, over 60 bond funds have announced increases in net asset value precision due to large redemptions, indicating ongoing pressure in the fourth quarter [6] Market Dynamics - The bond fund market is undergoing a structural shift, with pure bond funds being re-evaluated for their "stabilizer" function, while "fixed income plus" products are gaining prominence for their balanced advantages [2][3] - Despite the redemption pressures, some bond ETFs are seeing growth in scale, suggesting a divergence in investor behavior between different types of bond products [8] Underlying Factors - The current redemption wave is attributed to three main factors: the siphoning effect from the stock market, poor performance of bond funds, and uncertainty surrounding policies [10] - The stock market has shown a significant profit-making effect, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 16% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 43% year-to-date, prompting a shift of funds from bonds to equities [11] - Concerns regarding the upcoming public fund sales fee management regulations are contributing to the redemption pressures, as market participants fear potential changes in liquidity management functions of bond funds [11]