利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]

银河证券研报称，看好2026年中国股票市场的投资机会：其一，逆周期政策力度维持，物价低位回升和 名义GDP中枢上移，企业盈利和居民信心同步修复，内部条件好转；其二，美国政策重心内移，中美迎 来一年宝贵的缓和期，且货币政策整体保持宽松态势，外部环境改善；其三，资本市场作为新旧动能转 换的重要枢纽，在"乘势而上"（支持科技和高质量发展）和"因势利导"（提振信心和财富效应）方面都 具有重要意义，中长期资金入市和股市上涨之间形成正循环，进而带动居民存款搬家。其四，银河证券 的"银河指南针"显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的情形下，投资中国股票市场有望获得超额回 报。虽然"宽信用"在2026年较难实现，但股债跷跷板效应或对无风险收益率造成持续扰动，预计10年期 国债收益率保持在1.6%~1.95%之间，走势整体前高后低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in the public fund issuance market since 2025, with a total of 1,378 funds issued, surpassing last year's 1,143 and marking a three-year high [1][2] - The average subscription period for newly issued funds has decreased to 16.31 days from 22.63 days last year, indicating a faster fundraising process [1] - Equity funds have emerged as the dominant category, with 999 equity funds issued this year, accounting for 72.50% of the total [1][2] Group 2 - A notable "stock-bond seesaw effect" has been observed, with 762 stock funds issued this year, representing 55.30% of the total, while bond funds have decreased to 250, down from 330 last year [2] - The rise of index-based investments is significant, with 813 index funds issued, making up 59% of the total, and 96.59% of stock funds being index funds [2] - In the QDII fund sector, index funds dominate, with 15 out of 18 new QDII funds being index-based, a remarkable 83.33% [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the recovery in fund issuance, including a positive trend in the A-share market and improved corporate earnings due to economic recovery and policy implementation [3] - Central banks' accommodative monetary policies have maintained ample market liquidity, attracting international capital into the Chinese market [3] - Increased investor confidence, particularly among younger investors who are more open to new investment vehicles, is contributing to the growth of the public fund industry [3]

近期，债市呈箱体震荡走势，10年期国债收益率围绕1.8%小幅波动。短期来看，利空因素在于股市放 量上涨，风险偏好回升，对债市形成明显压制；利多因素在于宽松的资金面和刚刚公布的10月金融数据 偏弱。在风险偏好回暖与资金面宽松预期拉锯下，市场缺乏主线，短期震荡格局明显。 从国内经济基本面来看，10月CPI和PPI温和回升，但居民消费延续回落态势。与此同时，10月金融数据 转弱，一方面10月信贷季节性回落，另一方面财政对实体支持力度阶段性回落。"弱现实"仍在延续，对 债市形成支撑。 从潜在利空因素来看，一是部分经济数据表现具备韧性，降低了年末加码宽松的紧迫性。二是风险偏好 变化，国内权益市场走势偏强，通过股债"跷跷板"效应压制债市情绪。三是近期美元和美债收益率集体 上涨，在一定程度上限制了国内利率下行的空间。 从政策层面来看，市场对四季度降准降息的预期升温。央行在三季度货币政策报告中重提"跨周期调 节"，预示政策视角更重长期。财政政策方面，5000亿元地方债务结存限额下达，后续基建投资可能形 成脉冲。宽松预期是当前债市核心支撑。另外，近期资金面仍偏宽松，短端利率保持低位，这也给债市 提供了支撑。 从海外市场环境来看 ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market has experienced a significant recovery, with a total of 1,378 public funds issued by November 17, surpassing last year's total of 1,143 funds, marking the highest issuance in three years [1] - The average subscription period for new funds has decreased from 22.63 days last year to 16.31 days this year, indicating a faster fundraising cycle and increased market activity [1] - The main drivers for the recovery include positive overall performance in the A-share market, improved corporate profit expectations, ample market liquidity, and increased investor confidence [1] Group 2 - FOF (Fund of Funds) products have seen explosive growth, with 72 new FOF products issued this year, doubling from 33 last year, reflecting growing recognition of their value [2] - As the equity market rebounds, there has been a significant increase in the issuance of equity funds, while bond fund issuance has declined, demonstrating a typical "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds [2] Group 3 - A total of 19 public REITs and 18 QDII funds have been issued this year, with index funds emerging as a major highlight in the issuance market, comprising 813 of the 1,378 new funds, nearly 60% [3] - Index investment has penetrated various fund categories, with over 90% of stock funds being index products and nearly 25% of bond funds being index bond funds, indicating a trend towards lower-cost, clearer-style products [3] - The industry remains highly concentrated, with 131 public institutions issuing new funds, and 22 institutions issuing 20 or more funds, led by Fortune Fund with 60 new funds [3]

"股债跷跷板"效应仍在，上周债市窄幅震荡 ——利率债周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.16） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 2025 年 11 月 17 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 时间 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 受股债跷跷板效应主导，上周债市窄幅震荡。上周公布的 10 月 金融和宏观数据表现偏弱，印证四季度经济下行预期，但市场 反应较为平淡，债市情绪仍主要受股市表现牵引，且对股市上 涨更为敏感。上周股市先调整后冲高回落、整体有所下跌，债 市随之波动，长债收益率仅微幅下行。短债方面，随着税期临 近，上周资金面趋于收敛，短债收益率小幅上行，收益率曲线 继续平坦化。 本周（11 月 17 日当周）债市仍将延续震荡格局。考虑到近期 央行通过买断式逆回购、买卖国债等工具注入中期流动性，市 场对于短期内降准的预期降温，降息预期也依然不强，加之宏 观数据进入真空期，本周债市仍将延续震荡，股市波动将继续 主导市场情绪。另外，公募赎回费率新规可能在近期落地，但 由于此前市场对其定价较为充分，短期内可能带来市场波动但 幅度料有限。总体来看，在基本面偏弱但宽松 ...

Regulatory Dynamics - Ten departments are deepening the application of logistics data in the financial industry to optimize financing and insurance product services, addressing the financing difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises [5] - As of the end of Q3, the total assets of insurance companies and insurance asset management companies reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a growth of 12.5% compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau will soon release a revised "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring of various enterprises, including tech innovation companies [8] Company Dynamics - China Ping An increased its stake in China CRRC H-shares by 55.48 million Hong Kong dollars, raising its holding to 5.09% [17] - China Life has cumulatively purchased over 32.5 billion yuan in Xiong'an bonds and nearly 100 million in Xiong'an Group bonds, supporting the construction of the Xiong'an New Area [20] - China Life, in collaboration with Seven Wolves, established a private equity investment fund with a contribution of 1.6 billion yuan [21] Industry Dynamics - In the first three quarters, 70 life insurance companies achieved a net profit exceeding 460 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The insurance asset allocation has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, enhancing the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [46] - The average vehicle insurance premium among 67 insurance companies was 1,836.89 yuan, with the highest being 5,700 yuan and the lowest at 880 yuan [47] Product Services - Ping An Life launched the "Yuxiang Jinyue 26" series of insurance products, aiming to meet diverse customer needs with a focus on wealth stability and growth [56] - The first agricultural cultural heritage protection insurance in Beijing was issued, providing coverage of up to 306,000 yuan for the "Jingbai Pear" cultivation area [58]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in the number of new funds launched in November 2023, indicating a resurgence in investor interest [2][3][4] Fund Issuance Trends - As of November 13, 2023, a total of 1,386 new public funds have been established this year, marking a 9.48% increase compared to 1,266 funds in 2022 and a 21.26% increase from 1,143 funds in 2024, setting a three-year high [4][6] - The average fundraising period for new funds has decreased to 16.92 days, down from 19 days the previous week, reflecting increased investor confidence in new fund products [3][4] Product Structure - Equity funds dominate the new fund issuance, with 39 new funds launched in the second week of November, of which 28 are equity products, accounting for 71.79% of the total [3][6] - Among the new equity funds, passive index funds and enhanced index funds are particularly popular, with 15 and 7 funds launched respectively, making up 56.41% of the new equity fund issuance [3][6] Market Dynamics - The issuance of stock funds has reached a 14-year high, with 767 stock funds launched this year, representing 55.34% of the total new funds and 36.95% of the total issuance volume [6][7] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a significant decline, with only 248 new bond funds launched, accounting for 17.89% of the total, and their issuance volume dropping to the lowest level in four years [7][8] FOF Fund Performance - FOF (Fund of Funds) funds have achieved a historic milestone, with 74 new FOF funds launched this year, representing 5.8% of the total issuance volume, the highest recorded since data collection began [8]

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月14日 - FREE C | | | | | 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 反内卷在顺周期行业内持续推动,国内股指韧性较 | | | | IF2512 IH2512 | | 强,整体上继续降波等待企稳。三季报发布后,A | | | 股指 | IC2512 | 顺周期全面回暖,A股整体上扬 | 股整体处于再定价调整中,短期常见窄幅回调及反 弹,下方风险有限,推荐观望为主。若单日出现深 | | | | IM2512 | | 度下挫,可布局看跌期权牛市价差。 | | | | | | 短期10年期国债活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可 | | | | T2512 | | 能在1.75%-1.82%,且央行国债买卖重启、货币 | | | 国债 | TF2512 | 股债跷跷板效应下,期债全线收跌 | 政策偏宽,影响利率顶部、期债底部更加夯实。 | | 金融 | | TS2512 TL2512 | | 250016已经处于1.8%附近,后 ...