Report on the Precious Metals Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term remains in a high - level oscillation. The resistance levels for London gold are 3300, with strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area; support levels are 3200, 3100, and strong support in the 2950 - 3000 area. For London silver, support is in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance is at 33.3 and 33.7, and if it breaks through, it could reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but the market may remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals generally saw gold decline and silver oscillate. London gold dropped to around 3120, the lowest since April 10. The Sino - US joint communique on May 12 after the Geneva economic and trade high - level talks boosted market risk appetite, pressuring gold. Since late April, global gold ETFs have shown signs of outflow due to factors such as trade and geopolitical conflicts and the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell's statement on re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework and the "new Fed newswire" hinting at an interest - rate framework adjustment may lead to higher long - term interest rates. The slightly lower - than - expected US CPI on Tuesday alleviated inflation concerns and slightly improved the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, which may increase the volatility of the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets on Monday and be beneficial for gold. China reduced its US debt holdings by 18.9 billion US dollars to 765.4 billion US dollars in March, becoming the third - largest US debt holder [2] 3.2 Capital and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 19.21 tons to 918.73 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 106.06 tons to 13914.9 tons [3] - **Short - term Fund Holdings**: According to the CFTC report as of May 13, the non - commercial net long positions of gold decreased by 1288 to 161209, with long positions increasing by 746 and short positions increasing by 2034. The non - commercial net long positions of silver decreased by 1498 to 47754, with long positions decreasing by 2391 and short positions decreasing by 893 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7.26 tons to 1210.6 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 44.1 tons to 15619 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 47.44 tons to 887 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 5.24 tons to 1574.3 tons [3] 3.3 Upcoming Events - This week's economic data is relatively light, with attention on the US S&P PMI data. There are multiple speeches by Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Harker, and Daly. The G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting from May 12 - 22 should also be monitored [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract rose 1.62% to 751.8 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD rose 1.58% to 746.98 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract fell 1.19% to 3205.3 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver main contract rose 1.16% to 8101 yuan/kilogram, SGX silver TD rose 1.19% to 8062 yuan/kilogram, CME silver main contract fell 1.1% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce [5] - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, CME gold inventory was 1210.5758 tons, SHFE gold position was 211481 lots. SHFE silver inventory was 887.018 tons, CME silver inventory was 15619.051 tons, SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, SHFE silver position was 325306 lots [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Data**: The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 100.983, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42654.74 points, WTI crude - oil spot rose 1.41% to 62.49 US dollars/barrel, LmeS copper 03 fell 1.67% to 9440 US dollars/ton, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.45% to 4.43%, and the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread fell 8.16% to 0.45% [19]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report (May 12 - May 16, 2025) [1] - Analyst: Du Shufang [1] - Futures Qualification Number: F0230469 [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0000690 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of the negative news of the easing of the China - US tariff war, the market returned to a volatile state. Considering the weak fundamentals and the unchanged easing direction of the central bank, the upward space for short - term interest rates may be limited. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Section This Week's Market Review - Treasury bond futures declined significantly this week, especially in the ultra - long end. At the beginning of the week, bond futures tumbled due to the China - US Geneva Joint Statement on tariff reduction, and then fluctuated slightly downward [3]. - The joint statement on May 12 led to an increase in market expectations for tariff risk mitigation and economic recovery, weakening the hedging demand for long - term treasury bonds and increasing the resistance to further decline in interest rates. However, the China - US trade relationship has not fully recovered, and there are still uncertainties [3]. - In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan but fell short of expectations. The increase was mainly driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds, while the credit demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, but the M1 growth rate remained low, reflecting the increased risk aversion of residents and the capital hedging demand under capital market fluctuations [3]. - In April, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was - 0.1%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.1%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, mainly affected by imported factors such as the decline in international commodity prices [3]. - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (previous value: 12.4%), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03%. The data release caused a slight fluctuation in the bond market. China's exports showed resilience as they did not decline under the influence of US tariff policies [3]. - Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 47.51 billion yuan this week, and the short - term interest rates in the money market remained stable [3]. This Week's Important News Review - In April, the CPI month - on - month changed from a 0.4% decline to a 0.1% increase; year - on - year, it decreased by 0.1%. The core CPI month - on - month changed from flat to a 0.2% increase; year - on - year, it increased by 0.5%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, and the year - on - year decline widened by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% [5]. - From January to April 2025, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [5]. - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.0%); imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year (market expectation: - 6.0%). The trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is adjusting its policy framework to address the high - inflation challenges in the post - pandemic era, hinting that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over [5]. Trend Review - The report presents historical data trends of PPI, PMI, CPI, and GDP, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][15][17] Cash Bond Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24] Basis Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of the CTD bond basis of T2406, TF2406, and TS2406, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][28]

Economic Indicators - In April, industrial added value year-on-year was 6.1%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from March, indicating a slowdown in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in April grew by 3.5% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from March, with infrastructure investment declining by 3 percentage points to 9.6%[7] - Real estate investment in April saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, a slight decline of 1.3 percentage points from March, with new construction area down by 22.1%[11] Consumer and Market Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a relatively high level[13] - Social financing in April grew by 8.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, primarily driven by government bond issuance[16] - The A-share market has shifted from initial panic over economic slowdown to a focus on the extent of economic deceleration, with confidence in the economy improving for the second half of the year[20] Tariff Impact and Policy Response - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has led to a noticeable decline in total demand, with April's PPI showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%[5] - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have eased expectations regarding tariffs, suggesting a potential moderation in the negative impact on the real economy[5] - The central bank's likelihood of significantly tightening monetary policy appears limited due to greater downward pressure on the economy compared to earlier in the year[22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework due to significant changes in the economic and financial environment since 2020, particularly in balancing employment and inflation goals [1][2][6] - The upcoming review of the monetary policy framework is the first since 2020, with the Fed aiming to adapt to the current high inflation and interest rate environment [2][3] - Despite the potential framework revisions, anchoring inflation expectations remains a critical task for the Fed, as future inflation may become more volatile [3][4] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the U.S. economy has not shown clear signs of "stagflation," with consumer spending and investment remaining robust despite a contraction in GDP [4][5] - The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below market expectations, suggesting a trend of easing inflation [4][5] - However, concerns persist regarding the long-term impact of U.S. trade policies on inflation, which may take time to fully manifest in economic data [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while the Fed is poised to adjust its monetary policy framework, it is unlikely to affect current policy decisions, with a preference for a "wait and see" approach [6][7] - The labor market remains strong, and there are no immediate signs of economic deterioration, which diminishes the urgency for the Fed to lower interest rates [6][7] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted, with predictions now leaning towards a potential cut in December rather than July, reflecting increased uncertainty [6][7]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that decision-makers are considering adjustments to the core elements of the monetary policy framework, including the definition of the U.S. employment "gap" and thoughts on achieving inflation targets [1][5] - The redefinition of the employment "gap" reflects the Federal Reserve's recognition of the complexities and dynamic changes in the labor market, aiming to create more effective monetary policy [3][5] - The average inflation targeting framework, introduced in 2020, allows inflation to exceed 2% for a period to compensate for previous low inflation, but its implementation faces challenges such as short-term volatility and market trust [4][5] Group 2 - Market reactions to Powell's statements suggest that the reconsideration of the employment "gap" and inflation targets may signal future adjustments in monetary policy [4][5] - Long-term adjustments by the Federal Reserve aim to enhance the effectiveness and flexibility of monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions, while also introducing some uncertainty regarding market expectations [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend judgments for multiple futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each product has its own specific trend, such as gold breaking below the support level, silver oscillating downward, etc. [2][5] Summary by Product Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 737.64, down 2.90%. [2][7][11] - **Silver**: Oscillated downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 yesterday was 7991, down 2.20%. [2][7][11] Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacked a clear driver, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity was 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 77,870, down 1.36%. [2][13][15] - **Aluminum**: Oscillated within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Alumina**: Continued to rebound, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Zinc**: Prices were adjusted downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22590, down 0.53%. [2][20][21] - **Lead**: Adjusted within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16975, up 0.24%. [2][23][24] - **Tin**: Oscillated in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 265,210, down 0.21%. [2][26][31] - **Nickel**: The news affected market sentiment, while the fundamentals changed little, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory decreased slightly at a high level, and short - term repair might not be too high, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The inventory accumulation pattern was difficult to reverse, and the weak trend might continue, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][37][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak fundamentals remained, and the futures price had a downward driving force, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices continued to decline, and the futures price was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors were realized, and the upward driving force slowed down, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][43] - **Rebar**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There was concentrated production reduction in the main producing areas, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Manganese Silicide**: The raw material price continued to rise, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Coke**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Coking Coal**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increased, and prices oscillated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][59][61] - **Log**: Oscillated repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][62][66] - **Para - Xylene**: Had a single - sided oscillating market. [2][67] - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA. [2][68] - **MEG**: The single - sided trend remained relatively strong. [2][68] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend slowed down. [2] - **Asphalt**: Oscillated repeatedly following crude oil. [2] - **LLDPE**: Had a medium - term oscillating market. [2] - **PP**: Prices rose slightly, but trading volume was weak. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: There was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillated. [2] - **Urea**: Oscillated with support. [2] - **Styrene**: Oscillated in the short term. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2] - **LPG**: Short - term bearish factors were realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [2] - **PVC**: Oscillated in the short term, and there was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continued. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Retreated in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market slightly narrowed. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure was released stage by stage, and it was looking for support below. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There was an emotional bubble in US soybean oil, and the risk of edible oils increased. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns about the biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybeans might lead to a weak oscillation. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Might oscillate weakly following other soybean products. [5] - **Corn**: Oscillated. [5] - **Sugar**: Trended weakly. [5] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market sentiment. [5] - **Eggs**: Oscillated and adjusted. [5] - **Live Pigs**: The game continued. [5] - **Peanuts**: Oscillated strongly. [5] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillated strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [5] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Oscillated in the short term. Hold the strategy of going long on PF and short on PR. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillated weakly. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward. Copper lacks a clear driving force and its price is oscillating. Aluminum is in a range-bound oscillation, while alumina continues to rebound. Zinc's price is declining, lead is in a range adjustment, and tin is oscillating within a narrow range [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and Gold T+D decreased by 2.90% and 3.06% respectively, while Comex Gold 2506 and London Gold Spot increased by 1.61% and 1.98%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed to varying degrees, and the ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: The Fed Chairman Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise. The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and Silver T+D decreased by 2.20% and 2.50% respectively, while Comex Silver 2506 and London Silver Spot increased by 1.23% and 1.31%. Trading volume, open interest, ETF, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including Fed policy and US economic data [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 1.36%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.08%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads all had changes [10]. - **News**: Macroscopically, the Fed may adjust the interest - rate framework, and long - term low - interest rates may end. Microscopically, China's copper imports in April 2025 were flat compared to the same period last year, and the cumulative imports from January to April decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: For aluminum and alumina, on May 15, 2025, 0.2 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both aluminum and alumina, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 0.53%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.51%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [16]. - **News**: The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.03%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [19]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 0.21%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.18%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spot prices all had changes [23]. - **News**: A series of macro and corporate news, including Fed policy, US economic data, and corporate cooperation and development news [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [27].

Group 1: Retail Sales and Economic Outlook - US retail sales growth slowed to only 0.1% month-on-month in April, with 7 out of 13 categories declining, indicating consumer spending contraction due to tariff concerns [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a review of the monetary policy framework, suggesting adjustments to the average inflation target and employment gap language, emphasizing a commitment to a 2% inflation target [1][2] - Consumer data reflects potential preemptive spending before anticipated price increases, raising uncertainties about the future of the US economic recovery [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, rising nearly 2% in a single day, with a price swing of over $100, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over US fiscal policy [3][4] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, with predictions of prices potentially reaching $4000 per ounce due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases [3][4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Impact - Trump's executive order to lower drug prices significantly affects pharmaceutical companies, with Citigroup upgrading Regeneron and downgrading AbbVie based on their exposure to policy risks [5][6] - The order links US drug prices to lower prices in other developed countries, creating valuation risks for major pharmaceutical firms, particularly European companies like Novo Nordisk [5][6] Group 4: Semiconductor Manufacturing in India - Foxconn received approval to invest $435 million in a semiconductor manufacturing facility in India, aiming for production by 2027, which aligns with Apple's strategy to diversify its supply chain [7][8] - Apple's production in India has increased significantly, with 20% of global iPhone shipments now produced there, although high-end models remain manufactured in China [7][8] Group 5: Banking Sector Regulation Changes - US regulators are preparing to announce the largest reduction in bank capital requirements in over a decade, which could enhance banks' lending capacity and improve profitability [9][10] - The adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) may lead to increased bank stock valuations and market performance, although it carries potential risks of excessive lending [9][10] Group 6: Surge in Container Shipping from China - Following tariff adjustments, US importers significantly increased orders from China, with container bookings surging by 277% in a week, indicating a strong demand rebound [11][12] - Logistics companies anticipate further increases in container shipping volumes in the coming weeks, although this surge may not represent a sustainable trend [11][12]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-16 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美 联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对 2020 年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化。 他表示， 2020 年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著 变化。 美联储目前的政策框架是在五年前采纳的，并于今年开始对该框架进行审查。此次审 查预计不会影响美联储当前的利率决策。鲍威尔此前曾表示，可能在 8 月或 9 月完成该审查 过程，并公布结果。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 原油 | ★★★★ | 原油：多单、正套轻仓持有昨日，市场传言美伊达成和谈，油价大幅回吐地缘溢价，在经历 五一节以来的持续反弹后大幅回调。其中，内盘 SC 几乎回吐两周以来大部分涨幅，近端月差 抹平。我们认为原油市场的单边的反弹空间在美伊和谈预期下被削弱，但反弹本身可能没有 完全结束。即便不考虑伊朗原油问题，OPEC+增产不及预期、页岩油产量下滑、季节性旺季、 中美贸易关系缓和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks following the pandemic [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Framework Review - The Federal Reserve's "consensus statement" was first formalized in 2012, outlining its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which has remained unchanged to date [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conducted its first public review of the consensus statement in 2019, committing to reassess the framework approximately every five years [3]. - Since 2020, the economic environment has changed significantly, prompting the Fed to evaluate its current framework, with results expected by August or September [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Post-pandemic, the rise in inflation-adjusted "real" interest rates may affect the components of the Fed's current framework [4]. - Higher real interest rates could indicate a greater likelihood of inflation instability compared to the 2010s, suggesting a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks [4]. - The Fed is also considering improvements to its formal policy communication, particularly regarding forecasts and uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [6]. - Recent data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, the lowest increase since early 2021, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to rise around 2.2% [6]. - Economists predict that the current moderation in inflation may not last, with expectations of price acceleration due to the impact of import tariffs [6].