1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and are likely to further stabilize. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [5] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the unsustainable US debt and intensifying great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With central banks' gold purchases continuing, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **15 - point price tracking of internal and external gold and silver on November 3, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4017.06 per ounce, London silver spot at $48.86 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4028.00 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.58 per ounce, AU2512 at 922.58 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11455 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 919.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11424 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the price changes were 0.2%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [4] - **15 - point price tracking of spreads and ratios on November 3, 2025**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 31 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.32 yuan per gram, silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 1022 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 80.54, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 82.91, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.82 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 24 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the changes were - 5.4%, - 38.0%, - 10.8%, - 7.8%, - 0.1%, 0.2%, - 7.8%, and - 4.0% respectively [4] 3.2 Position Data - **As of October 31, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1039.2 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15189.81735 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 30, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 87816.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 658851.00 kilograms. As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38168047 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 482438705 troy ounces. Compared with the previous period, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.01%, - 0.20%, and - 0.14% respectively [4] 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. As of October 31, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.73, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, VIX was 17.44, the S&P 500 was 6840.20, and NYMEX crude oil was $60.88 per barrel. Compared with the previous period, the changes were - 0.02%, 0.19%, - 0.28%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 0.26%, and 0.98% respectively [4] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market review**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.47% to 922.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.39% to 11455 yuan per kilogram [4] - **Analysis and short - term outlook**: The new gold tax policy mainly aims to standardize the gold market, strengthen tax supervision, and has limited impact on prices. With factors such as decreased market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown, precious metal prices are in a range - bound oscillation. However, the divergence within the Fed on a December rate cut and the strong US dollar index will suppress the short - term upside of precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and may further stabilize [5] - **Medium - and long - term outlook**: In the long run, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainties, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market may put pressure on precious metal prices in the short term, but geopolitical risks, fiscal deficit expansion expectations, and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 920.20 yuan/gram, with a change of - 0.82 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 13,234.00, and the position was 258,772.00, a decrease of 3,210.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 32.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of 446.00 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 525,416.00, and the position was 634,538.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4013.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.30 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 223,800.00, and the position was 328,472.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.91 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.34 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 51,400.00, and the position was 105,276.00 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.75 compared to the previous day; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1039.20 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 483.00 tons [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.78 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.77 compared to the previous day; E - country iShare Silver ETF holdings were 15189.82 tons [1] Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US employment market is cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020 [1] - The US Treasury has lowered its borrowing forecast for this quarter by 21 billion dollars to 569 billion dollars due to an unexpectedly large cash balance [1] Multi - and Short - Logic - In the short term, factors such as the decreased expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market, and the reduction of the US credit crisis, along with the decline in the total debt of major countries, may put pressure on precious metal prices [1] - In the medium to long term, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world will support precious metal prices [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support levels around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance levels around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support levels around 830 - 860 and the resistance levels around 950 - 1000; for London silver, pay attention to the support levels around 39 - 42 and the resistance levels around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support levels around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance levels around 11600 - 12400 [1]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices; concerns about the weakening of the US employment market, the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the difficult - to - solve crisis of the US federal government shutdown, geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 935.33 yuan/gram, down 38.37 yuan from the previous value; the trading volume was 71,850, and the position was 259,636 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,317 yuan/ten - grams, down 146 yuan; the trading volume was - 29,842, and the position was 3,830,738 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, down 16.30 US dollars; the trading volume was 291,961, and the position was 372,229 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.65 US dollars/ounce, down 0.24 US dollars; the trading volume was 72,046, and the position was 115,483 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4,143.75 US dollars/ounce, down 39.35 US dollars [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.01 US dollars/ounce, down 1.10 US dollars [1] Important Information - Trump promotes MAGA and protects the market, often using high - tariff announcements as leverage and then reducing them [1] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns [1] Long - Short Logic - Positive factors: Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and may approach the end of balance - sheet reduction; the difficult - to - solve crisis of the US federal government shutdown; geopolitical risks; the expansion expectation of fiscal deficits in many countries; and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks [1] - Negative factors: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a preliminary plan, the US credit crisis eased, and the strengthening of the US dollar index [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,820 - 3,950 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 840 - 870 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000 yuan/gram; for London silver, focus on the support level around 42 - 46 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 55 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,800 - 10,800 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/ten - grams [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is still in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver - the new Fed Chair nominee has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. Wait for the price to stabilize and then enter long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 928 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10962 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [4]. - Precious metal prices have found short - term support after a significant decline. The macro environment still has positive factors for gold and silver prices, but from the perspective of positions, they still need to consolidate. Overseas risk aversion has increased, leading to a short - term stabilization of gold prices. Tomorrow evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The US Treasury Secretary expects the CPI to decline next month [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, Shanghai Gold fell 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.04% to 11331.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4101.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 48.03 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.92 [2]. - Comparing this week with last week, SHFE Gold was at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 5.87%; SHFE Silver was at 11805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.36%. COMEX Gold was at 4138.50 US dollars/ounce, down 0.51%; COMEX Silver was at 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 4.34% [5]. 3.2 Position and Inventory - The positions of gold and silver ETFs were relatively weak due to the impact of price shocks. The SLV Silver ETF position decreased by 79.03 tons to 15597.61 tons yesterday, and the SPDR Gold ETF total position decreased by 6.29 tons to 1052.37 tons [3]. - For COMEX Gold on October 22, 2025, the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.14% to 1212 tons. For COMEX Silver, the position increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.56% to 15584 tons [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump expressed disappointment with ending the negotiation process in Ukraine. The US government announced a significant increase in sanctions against Russia and cancelled the meeting between Trump and Putin, leading to an increase in overseas risk aversion [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary, Baysent, said that energy prices have declined, and he expects the CPI to decline next month. He also mentioned that "the rise in gold prices is helpful to us" [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]

引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险,投资需谨慎! | 贵金属日评20251020:美国信贷危机有所缓解或使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-16 | 收盘价 | 33. 38 | 72. 24 | 999. 80 | 927. 56 | 966. 42 | | | | | 成交量 | 181, 422. 00 | 640615.00 | 459193.00 | 446705.00 | 193, 910. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持创重 | 225159.00 | -17.804.00 | 222192.00 | 239996.00 | -2.967.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 84606.00 | 80961.00 | 70 ...

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market - The Shanghai gold futures price on September 11 is reported at 833.82 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.26% [1] - The opening price for the day was 834.06 CNY per gram, with a maximum of 840.82 CNY and a minimum of 827.26 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. August CPI adjusted for seasonal changes recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, the highest since January, exceeding market expectations of 0.3% [2] - The year-on-year CPI for August is reported at 2.9%, also the highest since January, aligning with market expectations [2] - Despite the CPI data indicating the largest inflation increase in seven months, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts due to a weak job market [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 93.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 6.1% [2] - The U.S. Treasury Department has announced the largest sanctions against the Houthi movement to date, targeting 32 individuals and entities [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The weak performance of U.S. August employment data and stable core CPI year-on-year figures are leading to increased support for interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve officials [3] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, December, and January, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Continuous purchases of gold by central banks globally may lead to a bullish trend in precious metal prices, with support levels around 800-810 CNY and resistance levels around 840-850 CNY [3]