Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].

Overview - China's economy showed resilience in Q3, with actual GDP growing by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2. Cumulatively, GDP growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that the annual growth target is achievable [1]. Economic Structure - The supply-demand structure continues to deepen, with external demand showing unexpected resilience while internal demand is slowing down. In Q3, external demand growth outpaced production and internal demand, with non-US exports supporting external demand [3][6]. - Price governance has made initial progress, with the gap between nominal and actual GDP growth narrowing slightly. Actual GDP growth exceeded nominal growth by 1.1 percentage points, while nominal GDP growth fell to its lowest level in 2023 at 3.7% [6]. - Economic data for September showed a continuous slowdown in growth rates for four months, with production accelerating but investment and consumption declining more significantly [9]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in September was 3%, slightly below market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Restaurant consumption saw a more significant drop than goods consumption, with restaurant service growth falling to 0.9% [12]. - Goods consumption growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.3%, with subsidized categories experiencing a more substantial decline than non-subsidized ones. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in Q3 was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [12]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% in September, with infrastructure investment down by 2.1 percentage points, manufacturing investment down by 0.9 percentage points, and real estate investment down by 13.9% [17]. - Real estate sales growth was affected by base disturbances, with both sales area and amount declining by 10.5% and 11.8%, respectively. Real estate investment growth hit a record low of -21.3% in September [17][19]. Trade - September saw a significant increase in import and export growth, with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year in USD terms, supported by low base effects and recovery in global economic conditions. Trade surplus continued to expand [25]. - Imports also saw a notable increase, driven by demand recovery from major projects, although sustainability remains uncertain [25]. Supply - Industrial production growth accelerated in September, with the industrial added value growing by 6.5%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The production and sales rate improved slightly to 96.7% [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed impact from "anti-involution" policies, with some industries facing production slowdowns [28]. Inflation - CPI inflation showed signs of improvement, with the decline narrowing to -0.3%. Core CPI inflation rose to 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, supported by rising gold prices and improvements in some durable goods prices [29]. Outlook - The economic outlook for Q4 remains challenging, with pressures from insufficient effective demand and low price levels. The upcoming policies from the recent party meeting may provide additional support [31].

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant asset declines, while gold prices are rising due to ongoing geopolitical instability [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming October meeting is crucial, as key economic data is unavailable due to the government shutdown, making Powell's statements particularly important [3][5] - Powell's strategy includes cautious interest rate cuts and an end to balance sheet reduction to prevent liquidity issues [5][7] Group 2 - The Fed's simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction create a challenging liquidity environment, reminiscent of the 2019 liquidity crisis [7][9] - Trump's recent trade actions, including increased tariffs on Chinese goods, add to market volatility, despite the potential legal challenges to these tariffs [9][11] - The U.S. economy is under pressure from high inflation and employment issues, making aggressive trade actions risky [11][13] Group 3 - Investors should accept market volatility as a norm and consider defensive sectors like consumer and healthcare, which are less affected by economic fluctuations [15] - Structural opportunities may arise post-balance sheet reduction, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, but caution is advised regarding export-related companies due to ongoing trade conflicts [17]

Group 1 - The G7 finance ministers are considering joint measures in response to China's planned export controls on rare earths, with discussions expected to take place during their meeting in Washington [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the need for broader support beyond the G7, indicating a collective response involving allies such as Europe, Australia, Canada, India, and other democratic nations in Asia [1] - The G7 has reached a consensus to take action to protect their national and economic security interests against potential supply chain weaponization by China [1] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Commerce reiterated that the new export control measures are a normal action to improve its export control system and are not aimed at specific countries or regions [2] - Experts suggest that China's dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain makes it unlikely that the G7's collective actions will successfully challenge the existing market dynamics [2] - Analysts argue that the recent trade conflicts between the U.S. and China stem from unilateral actions by the U.S., and G7 countries should engage in equal negotiations with China to address their concerns without being misled by U.S. provocations [2]

Group 1 - Stellantis, the fourth largest automotive manufacturer globally, is relocating the production of the Jeep Compass from Brampton, Ontario, to Illinois, USA, as part of a $13 billion investment to expand manufacturing capacity in the U.S. [2][3] - Canadian Premier Doug Ford criticized U.S. President Trump for the decision, suggesting that it is a result of difficult negotiations and called for economic retaliation against the U.S. [2][3] - Canadian Industry Minister Mélanie Joly deemed the production shift "unacceptable," highlighting that Stellantis had previously committed to production in Canada in exchange for significant government financial support [3] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. tariff policies have negatively impacted key Canadian export industries, particularly manufacturing, with a notable loss of nearly 10,000 manufacturing jobs year-on-year as of July [3] - Discussions between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney focused on trade issues, with Trump emphasizing the need for U.S. automotive production and the desire to lower tariffs on various Canadian industries [4]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth of 3.2% by 2025, highlighting concerns over escalating trade tensions and the potential for a permanent restructuring of global trade [1][2] - The IMF warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a reduction in global economic growth by up to 0.3 percentage points due to supply chain disruptions [1][2] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data falling below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF raises alarms about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, which could lead to significant market corrections if profit expectations are not met [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Group 1 - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted concerns over trade tensions and the restructuring of the international trade system, with representatives from various regions expressing worries about the potential risks associated with rapid AI development and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a global economic growth of 3.2% by 2025, while warning that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent reconfiguration of trade, negatively impacting global efficiency [1][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks of the current AI investment surge, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, suggesting that if AI fails to meet high profit expectations, it could lead to significant market revaluation and adverse economic impacts [3] - Fiscal pressures are identified as another downward risk for the global economy, with the U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, which is 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to fiscal pressures, facing a significant reduction in aid despite efforts to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Core Insights - The IMF and World Bank's autumn meeting highlighted three major economic challenges: trade tensions, the rapid development of AI, and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2][3] Trade Tensions - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report predicts a 3.2% growth in the global economy by 2025, but warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to a permanent restructuring of global trade, negatively impacting efficiency [1][2] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of substantial slowdown, with employment data since July falling significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a near four-year high [2][3] - Global trade policies are causing uncertainty, affecting economies worldwide, particularly emerging markets that are more vulnerable to trade conflicts [2][3] AI Investment Risks - The IMF cautioned about the potential risks associated with the surge in AI investments, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble, where high expectations could lead to significant market corrections if profits do not materialize [3][4] - Optimism surrounding AI investments has inflated stock valuations and stimulated consumer spending, but a failure to meet profit expectations could have adverse effects on wealth and consumption [3] Fiscal Pressures - The IMF highlighted that many governments, including major developed economies, are struggling to manage fiscal pressures, with U.S. public debt projected to rise from 122% of GDP in 2024 to 143% by 2030, 15 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [3][4] - Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable, facing a significant reduction in aid while attempting to achieve fiscal balance [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the NABE annual meeting indicated a shift in monetary policy, with a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming months, reflecting concerns over the labor market and inflation pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - Recent non-farm payroll data showed weakness, failing to meet market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to a year-high of 4.3% [3]. - The ADP data corroborated this trend, showing a decline in employment numbers over the past three months, with negative growth reported in September [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Changes - Powell signaled that the Fed may stop its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, marking a potential end to three years of monetary tightening [3]. - This shift aims to ease liquidity constraints and create a more favorable environment for future interest rate cuts, indicating a transition from a focus solely on combating inflation to balancing growth and employment [3]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Despite the dovish signals, Powell reiterated concerns about inflation, particularly the impact of tariffs on price pressures, suggesting that ongoing trade conflicts could complicate the timeline for rate cuts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy - chemical futures on October 15, 2025. Overall, many commodities are under downward pressure due to factors such as weak demand prospects in the oil market, tariff policies, and high inventory levels. Some commodities are in a state of shock or have short - term trading opportunities, but the long - term outlook remains cautious [2][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The cost - end support from crude oil is weak, and the unilateral trend is weak. However, there may be positive factors in the aromatic hydrocarbon segment. It is recommended to pay attention to the long PXN strategy. The expected device maintenance this week will lead to a decline in the operating rate, but the supply - demand gap still exists [4][9]. - **PTA**: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support from the polyester industry chain is weak, and the spot market supply in East China is still sufficient [9]. - **MEG**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the unilateral trend is weak. The overall load will be slightly adjusted down this week, and the load in October is expected to reach its peak. The impact of the US fee policy on ethane producers is limited [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a state of shock operation. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the basis has strengthened. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased slightly, and the domestic butadiene rubber market is weak [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a short - term weak operation. The fundamental pressure has increased, with high supply and inventory pressure. The cost end is also under pressure, and the macro - trade conflict may further affect the market [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has declined with the oil price. The weekly production has increased, the factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend intensity is weak [19][32]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: The trend is weak. The market is affected by tariff policies, and the inventory pressure is large. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [33][34]. - **PP**: The trend is still weak. The market is suppressed by factors such as the resurgence of the trade war, the sharp decline in oil prices, and high supply. The short - term situation is difficult to reverse [37][38]. Caustic Soda - In the short term, do not chase short positions. The supply pressure in Shandong and Hebei is not large, and the demand from alumina plants in Hebei is strong. The cost support is strong, but the rebound height may be limited [41][43]. Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of shock operation. The spot price is basically stable, and the futures market is in a consolidation stage. The port inventory is at a relatively high level, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [46][49]. Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market price is slightly weak, and the downstream demand is average. The trend intensity is weak [51][52]. Methanol - The methanol market is under shock pressure. The spot price index has increased slightly, but the market atmosphere has weakened. The port inventory has accumulated, and the upstream inventory needs to be closely monitored [54][57]. Urea - In the short term, the market is in a shock state, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The spot transaction has improved, but the social inventory is high, and the domestic demand is weak. The price may continue to decline [59][61]. Styrene - Stop the profit of short positions. The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemicals. The inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The market is in a weak shock state, and the downstream is mainly for rigid demand. The short - term market is expected to be stable [64][65]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It is relatively resistant to decline at a low level. The price of CP paper goods has decreased, and the PDH operating rate has declined [67][71]. - **Propylene**: The demand has weakened, and it is in a short - term weak operation [67]. PVC - The PVC market trend is weak. Affected by tariff policies and inventory pressure, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The price center has reached a new low this year, and the short - term weakness continues. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has continued to decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [77]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The container freight index (European line) is in a shock market. The futures prices of different contracts have different changes, and the freight rate index shows a mixed trend [79].