| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/8/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1421.800 -10.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1677.2 | -10.70↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -255.40 +13.00↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | | -48.40 | +17.60↑ | | EC合约基差 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -16.50↓ 51053 -1323↓ | 876.06 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2297.86 -18.70↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,130.42 | -153.39↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1550.74 -41.85↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | | | | 0.04↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1232.29 -29.06↓ ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.1」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅下行，主力合约EC2510收跌6.98%，其余合约收跌2-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为 2316.56，较上周回落83.94点，环比下行3.5%，现货指标持续回落。美国总统特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等 产品征收50%关税。此外，特朗普还签署了行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到50%；对来自印度的商品 征收25%的关税。一系列关税措施进一步加剧全球贸易局势不确定性，推高市场对贸易冲突再度升级的预期。7月标普 全球美国PMI录得年内最快增速，Q2 GDP年化增速大幅超出市场预期，加之美联储FOMC会议释放边际转鹰信号，强调 未来关税对于通胀走势的不 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-01 持货商存在挺价情绪 铜价或震荡维稳 库存与仓单方面，LME 仓单较前一交易日变化1350.00吨万138200吨。SHFE 仓单较前一交易日变化-351 吨至19622 吨。7月 28 日国内市场电解铜现货库 11.93万吨，较此前一周变化 -0.10万吨。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-31，沪铜主力合约开于 78640元/吨，收于 78040元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.13%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,180元/吨，收于 78,010 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.55%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，国内电解铜现货市场呈现月末收紧态势。1#电解铜对2508合约升水140-220元/吨，均价180元/吨，较 前日上涨15元/吨，现货价格区间78460-78670元/吨。沪铜2508合约早盘自78700元/吨震荡下行，午前快速跌至78300 元/吨附近，隔月价差在贴水10至升水20元/吨区间波动。市场交投方面，月末效应导致流通货源紧张，主流平水铜 成交于升水140-200元/吨，好铜因供应偏紧维持200元/吨左右升水，湿法铜升水40 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market resembles that of ten years ago, characterized by low volatility and minimal trading activity, with traders feeling increasingly apathetic [1] - Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and monetary policy have all been put on hold, leading to a stagnant market environment [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and potential retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The market remains unclear, with the key support level at $3,300 acting as a pivot point for potential price movements, indicating ongoing bullish and bearish battles [2] - Current trading activity shows limited fluctuations, with a critical focus on the $3,305 level as a dividing line for long and short positions [4] - The strategy suggests observing the market without taking significant risks until a clear breakout occurs, particularly below $3,305 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and the EU involves a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, which has sparked mixed reactions among European governments, particularly concerning the competitiveness of the automotive industry in Germany [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement was announced by US President Trump, who stated that the EU would face a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is seen as a compromise to avoid higher tariffs previously threatened by Trump [1][5]. - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy products and increasing investments by $60 billion, which are key components of the agreement [1][10]. - The average effective tariff rate for the US is expected to rise from 13.5% to 16% as a result of this agreement, which is lower than the previously anticipated 18% [5]. Group 2: Reactions from European Leaders - German Chancellor Merz expressed that the agreement successfully avoided a trade conflict that could have severely impacted Germany's export-driven economy, although he hopes for further relaxation of transatlantic trade [5][6]. - The Slovak Prime Minister acknowledged the 15% tariff as a reasonable outcome, highlighting the importance of the automotive industry to Slovakia's GDP [6]. - However, there is significant criticism from the German industrial sector, with leaders arguing that the agreement sends a disastrous signal and could have severe negative impacts on Germany's export-oriented industries [8]. Group 3: Concerns and Future Implications - The lack of detailed written agreements raises concerns about the execution and interpretation of the deal, leading to uncertainties for investors and markets [10][11]. - The agreement is viewed as a pragmatic compromise aimed at maintaining economic stability in Europe, but it has also been criticized for potentially undermining European competitiveness [4][7]. - French officials have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, suggesting that it reflects a power imbalance between the EU and the US, and have called for measures to counteract perceived US dominance [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent trade agreement between the US and the EU, which has been viewed internally within the EU as a "bad deal" despite temporarily stabilizing the global economy [1][5] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on most EU products exported to the US, which is higher than the EU's initial target of 10% but lower than Trump's initial proposal of 20% [3][5] - The EU is expected to increase its investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products, although the specifics of these investments remain unclear [3][6] Group 2 - There are significant discrepancies in the statements made by US and EU leaders regarding the agreement, particularly concerning pharmaceutical products and steel and aluminum tariffs [3][4] - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement, with the euro appreciating against the dollar and stock indices rising, indicating a temporary relief from trade conflict uncertainties [4][5] - Analysts express caution, noting that the details of the agreement, such as the specific products affected by tariffs and the implications of the $600 billion investment, could lead to further complications [4][6] Group 3 - The agreement has been criticized within the EU, with leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the concessions made, particularly the 15% tariff which is significantly higher than previous rates [5][6] - The potential economic impact of the tariffs on the EU's GDP is under scrutiny, with estimates suggesting a 0.4% impact from a 10% tariff, and the new agreement may lead to a reassessment of these figures [6][7] - The trade dynamics may shift as the US could use the 15% tariff as a template for negotiations with other countries, potentially leading to a broader trade strategy that favors the US [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the key terms and implications for both economies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports, including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, which is significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [5][6]. - The EU has agreed to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the euro appreciated against the dollar, indicating a positive market response and reduced uncertainty regarding trade conflicts [9][10]. - Investors view the agreement as a stabilizing factor for business operations and market sentiment [10]. Impact on Trade - The 15% tariff is expected to increase costs for EU exports to the U.S., potentially reducing the competitiveness of European products, particularly in the automotive sector [12][13]. - The agreement aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with the EU, which was $235.6 billion in 2024, by increasing U.S. exports and capital inflow from Europe [14][15]. Economic Implications - The agreement may lead to higher import costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, contributing to upward pressure on domestic prices and inflation [16]. - The U.S. defense industry is expected to benefit from increased sales of military equipment to Europe, potentially boosting employment and investment in related sectors [15]. Reactions from Stakeholders - German Chancellor Merz expressed relief that the agreement avoided a trade conflict that could have severely impacted Germany's export-driven economy [18]. - However, some European officials criticized the agreement as unbalanced and detrimental to EU interests, suggesting a need for diversification away from reliance on the U.S. market [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing a robust countermeasure strategy as the deadline for trade negotiations with the US approaches, which could escalate transatlantic trade disputes and significantly impact both economies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Current US tariffs of approximately 10% on EU goods have resulted in about a 0.4% GDP loss for the EU [2]. - If a 15% tariff agreement is reached, this loss is expected to rise slightly to 0.5% [2]. - In the worst-case scenario, if the US imposes a 30% punitive tariff, the effective average tax rate would increase to about 21%, leading to a GDP decline of 0.7% for the EU [2]. Group 2: EU's Two-Step Retaliation Plan - The EU's retaliation strategy consists of two phases: the first involves imposing tariffs on a total of €930 billion worth of US imports, potentially at rates as high as 30% [3]. - The second phase includes the potential activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), targeting US financial and digital services [3]. Group 3: Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) - The ACI, established in November 2023, serves as a trade "defensive weapon" aimed at deterring third countries from exerting economic pressure on the EU [4][5]. - Unlike traditional trade dispute tools, the ACI allows for broader measures, including restrictions on foreign direct investment and access to financial markets [4]. Group 4: Risks of ACI Activation - Utilizing the ACI against US financial and digital services could lead to "significant self-harm" for the EU, given its reliance on US technology service imports [6]. - Any US countermeasures in response to ACI activation could severely disrupt European business activities [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen back to $3,400, a level not seen since June 16, indicating a recovery for bullish investors [1] - The upcoming tariffs from Trump's administration are expected to create volatility, with speculation in the options market suggesting that gold will benefit from retaliatory tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly the anticipated rate cuts, are influencing market dynamics, with a strong bullish sentiment emerging in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The recent price movements show a clear upward trend, with support levels rising from $3,310, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4] - Trading strategies are focused on buying on dips, with key price levels identified for potential entry points and profit-taking [4] - The market is closely watching for a breakout above $3,438, which could signal further upward momentum [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term upward trend despite some fluctuations, with a positive outlook for the upcoming months as various industry catalysts emerge [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed initial volatility but began to rise after 10:30 AM, with most major indices closing in the green, indicating a strong buying force [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has officially broken through the high point of November 8, 2024, suggesting the end of the sideways movement since Q4 2024 [1]. - Concerns regarding trade conflicts have eased, and with the policy window approaching in July, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend [1]. Future Outlook - There are multiple industry catalysts that could positively influence the market, such as the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream power station and potential recovery in H20 chip exports [2]. - After the index surpasses 3500 points, two potential paths are identified: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging the previous high of 3674 points [2]. - For the market to challenge the previous high, three conditions must be met: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is expected to be driven by events, with a likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with opportunities in sensors, controllers, and functional robots [3]. 3. The ongoing trend of semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3]. 5. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [3]. Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with strong buying support observed [4]. - Leading sectors included coal, building materials, construction, steel, and non-ferrous metals, while banking, computing, telecommunications, electronics, and textiles lagged [4].