Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the A-share market has entered a new era with a total market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan, driven by government policies and market confidence [1] - The State Council's top-level deployment aims to consolidate the economic recovery, supported by a series of financial policies including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - Significant inflows of capital from public funds, private equity, insurance funds, and foreign investments indicate strong investor confidence in policy benefits and economic transformation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major indices, noting that the US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the communication sector leading gains and real estate lagging [2] - It mentions that the financing balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan, reaching 20,485.99 billion yuan, reflecting a continuation of loose domestic liquidity [2] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of sustained market performance, although sector rotation and structural differentiation are expected [2] Group 3 - The article reports that the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, with the PPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year [3] - It notes that the US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which could influence market expectations [3] - The overall market sentiment is affected by concerns over employment data and the economic outlook, leading to a potential for gold and silver prices to fluctuate [3] Group 4 - The article highlights that the SC night market for crude oil rose by 0.7%, while the US initial jobless claims decreased against a backdrop of low layoffs [4] - It emphasizes that domestic demand remains weak, which may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [4] - The article suggests that traders are reducing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation concerns [4] Group 5 - The article outlines key domestic news, including the emphasis by Premier Li Qiang on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations [6] - It discusses the need to stimulate consumption and promote effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced nine key tasks to improve healthcare financing, indicating a focus on healthcare reforms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trade environment remains unstable according to the IMF Chief Economist [1] Group 1 - The IMF highlights ongoing uncertainties in global trade dynamics [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and policy changes contribute to the instability [1] - The economic outlook is affected by these trade uncertainties, impacting growth forecasts [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the potential for growth in domestic demand and the performance of quality domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector's performance was flat compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.2%, underperforming the SW All A index by 1.1 percentage points [3][4]. - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [3][25]. - Exports of textiles and apparel amounted to 143.98 billion USD in the first half of 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, although apparel exports saw a decline of 0.2% [3][30]. - Cotton prices have increased, with the national cotton price B index reported at 15,475 yuan per ton, up 1.8% [3][31]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports showed a recovery in June, with textile exports reaching 3.6 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [9]. - The report suggests that the trade environment will favor manufacturers capable of vertical integration and local sourcing to meet "origin rules" [9][10]. - Recommendations include focusing on quality manufacturers like Baolong Oriental [9]. Apparel Sector - High-end and cost-effective brands are performing better, with Anta's outdoor brand sales increasing by 50-55% and Xtep's high-end running shoes sales up by over 20% [11]. - Major brands like Anta, Li Ning, and Xtep reported low single-digit growth in their main brands, indicating a mixed performance landscape [11]. - The report anticipates improved sales performance in the second half of the year due to a low base effect and the outdoor peak season [11]. Key Company Reviews - Anta's main brand saw low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA experienced mid-single-digit growth [11][22]. - Li Ning's overall sales showed low single-digit growth, with e-commerce performing better than offline channels [22]. - Xtep's main brand also reported low single-digit growth, but its subsidiary Saucony saw over 20% growth [22]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that improving domestic demand is a crucial factor for growth in 2025, with quality domestic brands expected to rebound from previous challenges [11]. - The textile manufacturing sector is currently facing short-term disruptions due to U.S. tariffs, but leading companies are expected to recover and benefit from improved supply chain positions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The export performance in May is characterized as "overall resilience with slight slowdown," with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is lower than the first quarter's 5.7% and April's 8.1% [6][7][8] Export Performance - The export growth of 4.8% in May is still considered relatively low, and it is below the historical seasonal average for the month [6][8] - The decline in exports is primarily attributed to a significant drop in exports to the United States, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 34.5%, worsening from the previous month's decline of 21.0% [8][9] - There was a temporary "rush to export" observed in early May, but this trend weakened later in the month, likely due to uncertainty in expectations following tariff adjustments [9][10] Shipping Rates and Trade Dynamics - Despite the drop in export volumes, shipping rates to the U.S. have been rising, possibly due to a reallocation of shipping capacity to other routes and increased operational costs [10][11] - There is no significant evidence of a marked increase in third-party transshipment trade, as export growth rates to ASEAN and India have decreased compared to previous values [11][12] Export Market Structure - In May, ASEAN accounted for the largest share of China's exports at 18.5%, followed by the EU at 15.7%, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 9.1% [11][12] - The impact of tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to be less severe than in 2018, when exports to the U.S. constituted 19.2% of total exports [11][12] Product Structure Changes - The export of labor-intensive products showed a slight decline of 0.9%, while electronic products saw a growth of 3.9%, with integrated circuits performing particularly well [13] - The export growth of automobiles and ships rebounded significantly, with increases of 13.7% and 43.7% respectively, while rare earth exports fell sharply by 48% [13][14] Future Outlook - The current trend of a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. may stabilize, with recent shipping data indicating a potential rebound in early June [14] - The resilience of export data is expected to support the lower bound of the economic fundamentals, while the upper bound will depend on reassessing risk preferences and nominal GDP elasticity [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that when the trade environment is favorable, inflation tends to rise, but the extent of this increase is relatively small [1] Group 1 - The ECB's statement highlights the relationship between trade conditions and inflation levels [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, Jeong In-kyu, highlighted significant differences in perceptions of the trade environment among member countries [1]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]