Core Viewpoint - The current bank gold bar prices are closely linked to the global macro environment, with prices around 770 RMB per gram as of May 20, 2025, reflecting both financial and commodity attributes of physical gold [7]. Group 1: Bank Gold Bar Prices - The price of gold bars varies among banks, with the Agricultural Bank of China offering the highest price at 770.90 RMB per gram, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offers the lowest at 763.2 RMB per gram [4][5]. - Investment gold bar prices are typically based on the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 gold price, with an additional handling fee of 10 to 20 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The London gold price is at 2120 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold AU9999 main contract is priced at 478.5 RMB per gram, indicating a premium for craftsmanship gold bars of about 4.5% [7]. - The strong performance of the RMB has not led to a decrease in domestic gold bar prices, highlighting a contradiction where geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase demand for safe-haven assets [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should consider three key factors: currency hedging to mitigate single currency risk, the current low volatility of gold, and the cultural attributes of craftsmanship gold bars as a new choice for wealth inheritance [9]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation is increasing among domestic residents, with a reported 22% increase in transaction volume for the Industrial and Commercial Bank's gold bars [7].

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 金融市场的海洋上 ， 永远不缺新的风暴 。2025 年的这一场 ， 似乎格外的 " 狂暴 " 。 回顾过去几十年 ， 全球股民被灌输了一种深刻而普遍的信念 ， 即 市场是可以被合理预测的 ， 股票的价值 可以透过清晰且精准的基本面分析被掌握 。 华尔街的精英们 ， 每年花费无数个夜晚和无数杯咖啡 ， 聚精会神地盯着那些财务报表 ， 期望从每个企业 的现金流中看出未来数十年的轨迹 。 然而这套思维逻辑 ， 建立在全球化 、 自由贸易和稳定的国际秩序基础之上 。 当2025年的春天 ， 当我们 看到了245%的关税税率之时 ， 我们不得不面对一个骤变的可能 ： 这个基石已然不再牢靠 。 是的 ， 基本面分析依赖于一个隐秘的前提 ： 我们预测企业的未来时 ， 默认全球贸易自由畅通 ， 资本流 动不会受到严重阻碍 ， 地缘政治的稳定不会受到根本性破坏 。 然而 ， 今天这些曾被视作理所当然的假设 ， 变得比任何时候都更脆弱 、 更不确定 。 基本面分析正在陷入两重尴尬 ： 第一重尴尬是 ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing unpredictability of fundamental analysis in the context of rising geopolitical tensions and trade barriers, suggesting that traditional investment strategies may no longer be effective [3][4][5]. Group 1: Challenges to Fundamental Analysis - The predictability of corporate futures is severely eroded due to trade wars, tariff barriers, and supply chain restructuring, making financial reports increasingly difficult to forecast [4]. - If the Nasdaq enters a bear market, the era of easily outperforming global markets by betting on the U.S. stock market may come to an end [4]. - The golden age of globalization is over, and the dominance of single markets may be a thing of the past, leading to increased risks and a shift in investment philosophies [4][5]. Group 2: New Investment Paradigms - Investors must now consider new questions regarding which countries will maintain open capital markets, which currencies remain trustworthy, and how global commodity prices will reshape in a new trade landscape [7][8]. - The future of investing may require a greater reliance on geopolitical and historical understanding rather than solely on financial statements [8]. - Asset allocation is proposed as a new "lifebuoy" for investors, emphasizing diversification to manage risks associated with geopolitical shocks [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategies - The article references the "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which aims to hedge against global uncertainties, suggesting that similar asset allocation strategies are relevant today [14]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation is highlighted, with a suggested simple portfolio of 25% in gold, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and cash [11][15]. - Momentum investing is discussed as a disciplined strategy that can yield excess returns across various asset classes, with a focus on maintaining positions in the strongest assets [18][19].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The quantitative backtest results indicate that undervalued strategies contribute to excess returns while effectively reducing drawdowns [1] - High ROE and the strategy based on "provision coverage ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio" show superior performance, while short-term improvement strategies underperform [1] - The combined strategy of high ROE/PB and high "provision coverage ratio - non-performing loan ratio - attention ratio" × dividend yield has achieved over 300% cumulative excess returns since 2011, highlighting the importance of quality and value in bank stock investments [1] Group 2: Dividend Strategy Analysis - Current dividend strategies exhibit significant bottom characteristics, with a rare "negative return - high volatility" feature over the past three months, indicating potential for recovery [2] - The 40-day excess return of dividends is nearly -10% below the annual average, suggesting a high probability of excess return reversion based on historical patterns [2] - The dividend ETF is in a net subscription state with reduced trading volume, typically corresponding to a bottom phase for the strategy [2] Group 3: Copper Industry Outlook - The expectation of increased tariffs on imported copper in the U.S. is likely to push copper prices back to peak levels, with COMEX copper prices reaching new highs compared to LME prices [3] - The tariff impact on domestic demand in China is expected to be limited, but it may restrict imports of refined copper and scrap copper [3] - Positive policy developments and market dynamics are expected to accelerate the convergence of trading and fundamental factors, leading to a bullish outlook for copper prices [3] Group 4: Quantitative Strategy Improvements - The traditional asset rotation framework has been improved to address issues such as low flexibility and fixed scoring standards, enhancing the model's comprehensiveness and adaptability [4] - The industry rotation model constructed from 26 indicators achieved a 32% annualized absolute return during the backtest period from 2017 to January 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [5] Group 5: U.S. Stock Market Strategy - U.S. stock markets are experiencing downward pressure due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and tariffs, with major indices giving back all gains since the Fed's rate cuts in September 2023 [7] - Economic indicators from the U.S. have underperformed expectations, and trade tensions may further weaken the economic fundamentals, leading to capital rotation out of U.S. equities [7] - The outlook for U.S. stocks is expected to remain volatile until late March or early April, with recommendations to focus on healthcare, consumer services, traditional telecommunications, and utilities sectors [7] Group 6: Bond Market Insights - The demand for bond ETFs is increasing due to heightened market volatility, offering investors a more convenient and diversified investment tool compared to traditional bond allocations [8] - Local government bond ETFs are noted for their potential yield enhancement and better drawdown control compared to other bond ETF types [8] Group 7: Magnesium Alloy Market Potential - The demand for magnesium alloys in China is expected to grow due to rich domestic magnesium production and the lightweighting needs in automotive and robotics sectors [10] - The semi-solid magnesium alloy forming technology is anticipated to open new growth avenues for leading companies in the industry [10] Group 8: Dairy Industry Forecast - The potential implementation of child-rearing subsidies by 2025 may improve birth rates, positively impacting the demand for infant formula and cheese products [11] - The expected increase in the population of children aged 0-6 years is likely to boost the market outlook for children's cheese products [11]