Group 1 - The stock of Guolian Aquatic triggered trading information due to significant price fluctuations on July 2, with notable buying activity from various trading desks [1] - The top buying seat was from Guotai Junan Securities Chengdu North First Ring Road branch, amounting to 54.56 million yuan, associated with the well-known speculative group "Chengdu Gang" [1] - Other significant buying desks included Yichang Yangtze River Avenue branch at 52.74 million yuan and Huaxin Securities Shanghai branch at 16.86 million yuan, indicating a diverse buying interest [1] Group 2 - The selling side showed a mix of institutional and speculative funds, with two institutional desks collectively selling 26.91 million yuan [1] - The second-largest selling desk was from Aijian Securities Nanchang Honggu Middle Road branch, selling 13.64 million yuan, marking its first appearance on the stock's trading leaderboard in three months [1] - The stock has been listed once in the past month, with significant price volatility observed, reflecting a regional speculative fund interaction on the buy side and institutional funds exiting on the sell side [2]

Group 1: Xiaomi's Performance - Xiaomi's Yu7 model achieved impressive sales, with 200,000 units pre-ordered within 3 minutes and over 240,000 units locked in total, indicating strong market demand [1] - In comparison, Li Auto's expected second-quarter delivery was around 110,000 units, highlighting Xiaomi's significant market share gain [1] - The strong sales of Yu7 are expected to impact other SUV manufacturers negatively, leading to declines in their stock prices, with BYD down 7%, Xpeng down 5.5%, and others down around 3-3.5% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Fund Movements - Despite the positive sales news, Xiaomi's stock performance was below expectations, with a closing increase of only 3.6% after an initial 8% rise [2] - There was a significant net sell-off of Xiaomi shares, with southbound funds selling 3.2 billion, indicating a strong profit-taking sentiment among investors [3] - The sell-off is seen as a healthy market correction, preventing potential bubbles from forming [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector experienced a decline of nearly 3%, attributed to specific institutional needs for balance sheet adjustments at the end of the quarter [7] - The Shenwan Banking Index fell by 2.86%, contributing approximately -1.45% to the overall decline of the low-volatility dividend index, indicating that the issue was primarily within the banking sector [8] - Institutional selling was driven by a combination of profit-taking and seasonal adjustments, with significant sell-offs occurring as banks reached historical highs [9][10] Group 4: Divergence in Banking Stocks - A divergence was noted between A-share and Hong Kong banking stocks, with A-shares declining while Hong Kong stocks began to rebound, suggesting continued buying interest from insurance funds [14] - The China Construction Bank in Hong Kong saw net purchases exceeding 1.3 billion, indicating strong demand despite the overall market downturn [17] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The metals sector, particularly copper, saw significant gains, with a rise of over 2% driven by tight global supply and increased demand [23] - The surge in copper prices is linked to supply shortages and geopolitical factors, with expectations of continued high performance in the metals sector [28]

Group 1 - Ningbo Marine triggered trading disclosure conditions due to price fluctuations, with diverse buying positions observed [1] - The leading buyer, Guotai Junan Securities, purchased 36.48 million yuan, with a 46% probability of the stock rising in the following three days [1] - UBS Securities and Dongfang Caifu Securities also appeared among the top buyers, with respective purchases of 20.73 million yuan and a high activity level [1] Group 2 - The selling side is characterized by a concentration of foreign institutions, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan collectively selling 48.05 million yuan [1] - Guotai Junan Securities also led in selling, with a net sell of 37.06 million yuan, indicating a dual-direction operation [1] - Market analysis suggests a divergence in institutional funds regarding Ningbo Marine, with a general short-term rising probability below 50% for major trading units [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has no prominent contradictions, with prices oscillating at low levels. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot-rolled coils and rebar are around the 20-day moving average on the surface, which is also the point range for re-entering hedging [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, coking coal auctions remain weak, but the lower support on the futures price is strong. Although the medium - and long - term bottom of coking coal has not been determined, short - term rebounds may continue due to capital games. There may be a short - term restocking market similar to that in March if the futures price continues to rise [6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets have fluctuating sentiment and enhanced price elasticity. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a trend of marginal increase in supply and a decline in costs. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - The iron ore market is mainly influenced by short - term news and sentiment. The downward trend remains unchanged, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in iron ore inventory and steel exports after the peak season [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - On June 10, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2970 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; HC2601 at 3085 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 at 663.5 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; J2601 at 1364.5 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; JM2601 at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; HC2510 at 3089 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2509 at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85%; J2509 at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; JM2509 at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [3]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of various varieties also showed corresponding changes on June 10 [3]. Spot Market - On June 10, the prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3100 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3190 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3180 yuan/ton, and the prices of other spot products also had specific values and changes [3]. Market Analysis of Different Varieties - **Steel**: The spot trading is lackluster. There is no strong upward - driving force in the industry. The recent coal - coke market fluctuations are due to short - covering by short - sellers. After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal auction is weak, with many unsuccessful auctions. The cost of coal for furnaces is decreasing, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The futures price of coking coal may continue to rebound in the short term, but the medium - and long - term bottom has not been determined [6]. - **Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon**: Supply has recovered, direct demand has weakened marginally, and cost support has declined. Prices are expected to be under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed significantly. The downward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the changes in inventory and exports after the peak season [6]. Investment Suggestions - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [6]. - For coking coal and coke, be aware that the short - term rebound may not be over [6]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, participate through buying options due to the high price elasticity at low levels, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 商品情绪好转，需注意空单止盈平仓引发风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-05，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7200元/吨，最后收于7135元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-40） 元/吨，变化（-0.56）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓183965手，2025-06-06仓单总数为61309手，较前一日变化 -494手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9200 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计6月5日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.5万吨， 较上周环比增加0.1万吨，社会交割仓库45.2万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.3万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC报价11300-11600元/ 吨，均价较上周小幅下降50元/吨 ...

风险提示：证券市场价格受多重因素影响，历史数据不代表未来表现，投资者应注意市场波动风险，审 慎做出投资决策。 卖方阵营呈现不同资金特征，中国银河证券沈阳大北关街营业部以5083.91万元金额居首，该席位近三 个月上榜个股短期表现相对强势，三天上涨概率超过58%。位列其后的国泰海通证券宜昌沿江大道营业 部与甬兴证券台州分公司，分别对应3861.16万元、3277.37万元金额，后者虽然上榜次数较少，但历史 交易成功率保持较高水平。 值得注意的是，沪股通专用席位在卖出方同样现身，以2578.30万元金额位列第四，形成双向操作态 势。申港证券浙江分公司作为新晋活跃席位，本次以2036.87万元金额首次出现在该股卖出席位中，其 过往单一案例成功率显示100%的短期正收益记录。 6月4日翠微股份公开交易数据显示，多家市场关注度较高的证券营业部现身榜单。在买入方阵营中，沪 股通专用席位以7734.03万元金额位列榜首，该席位近三个月在340次上榜记录中，个股后续三天上涨概 率达41.18%。中信证券上海分公司以3453.15万元金额紧随其后，该席位历史交易记录显示，其操盘风 格偏向短线波段操作。 值得关注的是，瑞银证券上 ...